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New York Times
3 hours ago
- Business
- New York Times
Despite Dire Warnings, the Economy Is Holding Up. Can That Last?
When President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on American trading partners in early April, economists warned of dire consequences — higher prices, rising unemployment and possibly a recession. Three months later, inflation remains muted, the job market remains strong and forecasters have dialed backed their recession predictions. 'The so-called 'Experts' were wrong again,' Mr. Trump declared on social media last week. 'Tariffs are making our Country 'BOOM.'' Not so fast, economists say. They point to evidence that the effects of tariffs are starting to show up in the economic statistics, albeit in subtle ways. Data from the Labor Department on Tuesday showed that overall inflation remained tame in June, but that prices were up sharply in some categories affected by tariffs, such as toys and appliances. The job market, too, is starting to show some cracks, and there are signs consumers have begun to pull back their spending. Economists expect that evidence to mount in the months ahead, as companies use up inventories built up before the tariffs took effect and begin passing costs on to customers. Prices are from four major online retailers. Source: Cavallo, Llamas and Vazquez (2025) By The New York Times Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
Yahoo
11 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Inflation concerns trigger a market dip as new data shows impact of Trump tariffs in June
Stocks dipped on Tuesday as new consumer price index data showed rising inflation and the Aug. 1 deadline for Trump's tariff campaign loomed. President Donald Trump's tariff campaign is coming for your price tags. On Tuesday, the Labor Department released new data on its Consumer Price Index, showing that consumer prices rose 2.7% in June from a year earlier, and faster than May's increase of 2.4%. Though that increase was in line with economists' expectations, the stock market still reacted negatively to the news, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.4% and the Dow losing nearly 1%. Markets have been on a rollercoaster since Trump unveiled his aggressive plans at April's Liberation Day announcement, though stocks have mostly recovered since a calamitous collapse in the spring. But with Trump once again threatening an aggressive hike on trading partners' levies on Aug. 1, and the existing tariffs already impacting consumer goods, volatility is likely still on the horizon for investors. The Consumer Price Index, which tracks goods and services costs, is a reliable tracker for measuring inflation, with investors often turning to updated data to predict potential macroeconomic changes, such as Federal Reserve rate cuts. Though CPI has been trending downward since a peak in 2022, a reversal could prolong cuts, especially with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warning that Trump's tariffs are likely to negatively impact inflation, much to Trump's chagrin. The new data on Tuesday triggered mixed results for stocks, with banks like Wells Fargo and JPMorgan dropping despite better-than-expected earnings results. Nvidia, the first $4 trillion company, rose on Tuesday after announcing it hoped to resume sales of certain general processing units to China, which had been previously restricted due to export controls. Tuesday's dip in the S&P 500 demonstrated that investors are still waiting ahead of Trump's new tariff deadline of Aug. 1, which would impose steep import costs on dozens of U.S. trading partners. Still, JP Morgan's U.S. head of investment strategy, Jacon Manoukian, told Fortune that he remains confident in the U.S. economy's long-term dominance, describing the so-called 'Sell America' trade as short-sighted. 'We completely disagree with the idea that the U.S. is somehow losing its position as the center of the financial universe,' he said. Other assets also fell on Tuesday, with Bitcoin's hot streak cooling down as the top cryptocurrency fell around 2.9% at the time of publication. It dropped below its new benchmark of $120,000, though it still remained above $115,000. But that could change as the House of Representatives continues with its self-announced 'Crypto Week,' as lawmakers consider different bills that would establish regulatory frameworks for stablecoins and other cryptocurrencies. Circle, the stablecoin company that went public in June, fell about 4.6% on Tuesday. This story was originally featured on

Wall Street Journal
14 hours ago
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Trump Tariffs Hit Consumer Prices
President Trump insists there is 'no inflation' as he bludgeons the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. But denying inflation reality won't make it go away. His tariffs are making it harder for the central bank to do what he wants, as last month's rise in the consumer-price index shows. The Labor Department's consumer-price report Tuesday showed inflation ticked up in June to 0.3% or 2.7% in the last year. Real average hourly earnings fell 0.1% as inflation eroded wage gains. Real average weekly earnings fell 0.4% and 0.6% for production-level workers as hours of work declined, perhaps because of a slowing economy and labor market.
Yahoo
15 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump order to help open up retirement plans to private markets, WSJ reports
(Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order in the coming days designed to help make private-market investments more available to U.S. retirement plans, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The Trump order would instruct the U.S. Labor Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission to provide guidance to employers and plan administrators on including investments like private assets in 401(k) plans, according to the WSJ report. Sign in to access your portfolio

Wall Street Journal
15 hours ago
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Trump Executive Order to Help Open Up 401(k)s to Private Markets
President Trump is expected to sign an executive order in the coming days designed to help make private-market investments more available to U.S. retirement plans, according to people familiar with the matter. The order would instruct the Labor Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission to provide guidance to employers and plan administrators on including investments like private assets in 401(k) plans, the people said.