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Telegraph
4 days ago
- Politics
- Telegraph
This is what young people really think of modern Britain. The picture is bleak
Crime This week Mexico reportedly advised its citizens to exercise 'a high degree of caution' when travelling to the UK. When a state plagued with cartel violence doubts your country's safety, something is seriously wrong. New polling by Adam Smith Institute reveals an alarming consensus among young Britons: 61 per cent of 18-30-year-olds are concerned about violent crime in their area. This worry cuts across ethnic backgrounds: 64 per cent of black, 60 per cent of white and 58 per cent of Asian youth share the same fear. Even Labour and Reform voters agree on this: 67 per cent of young Labour supporters and 67 per cent of young Reform UK supporters alike say they are concerned about violent crime in their neighbourhoods. When a supermajority of the younger generation – regardless of ethnicity or politics – agrees on something, it's a flashing red light. And what they're telling us is clear: Britain has a public safety crisis. These fears aren't just perceptions, though. Many forms of violent crime really are rising. Police data shows knife offences rose 4.4 per cent in the year ending March 2024 (to 54,587 incidents in England and Wales), one of the highest rates in Europe. In that same time period, robbery offences jumped by 8 per cent and shoplifting surged by 37 per cent. While naysayers point out that overall crime rates were higher in the 90s, this long-term trend is misleading. It masks the fact that violent crime is climbing again. Even the Home Office acknowledged that some violent crimes have increased since 2014. Knife crime, in particular, has skyrocketed by 87 per cent over the past decade. In other words, the 20-year decline in overall crime obscures a recent upswing in deadly violence. This is the reality underlying young people's anxiety: after years of improvement, violent crime is once again a growing threat. Foreign conflict The ASI polling found that 75 per cent of 18-30-year-olds believe that the risk of Britain becoming involved in a war has increased compared to five years ago. War already rages in Eastern Europe as Russia crashes against Nato's borders. Militant groups like the Houthis strike global supply chains while, in the Far East, China grows increasingly brazen in its aggression against Taiwan. Yet, as fears of conflict grow, Britain's armed forces are at their weakest in over three centuries, crippled by a dysfunctional procurement system and personnel shortages. The Royal Navy, once the Lord of the Seas, is now dangerously depleted. Its escort fleet has dwindled to just 14 operational frigates and destroyers, down from nearly 60 in the 1980s. Frigate numbers are set to drop even further by year-end. Labour has promised a ' tenfold more lethal ' military but without any concrete financial backing – only pledging a defence spending increase to 3 per cent of GDP by 2034. The review lacks real commitment or near-term funding, pushing essential capabilities such as submarines into the distant 2040s. As former Defence Secretary Ben Wallace put it: ' even Putin will be dead by then.' And closer to home, domestic policies have left Britain ill-equipped to fight a major war. No country has ever succeeded on the battlefield with a shrinking domestic industrial base, a stagnant economy and a divided society. Yet this is precisely where Britain finds itself. Job Prospects The latest polling also lays bare the degree of economic anxiety gripping Britain's younger generation. Overall, 60 per cent of 18-30-year-olds believe that finding a well-paid and satisfying job will become harder over the next five years. This is a bleak verdict on the stagnant wages, record-high taxes and unrelenting competition for fewer jobs that has characterised Britain in recent years. Yet beneath this consensus lies a striking ethnic divide. Young black Britons are more than twice as likely as their white counterparts to say that the job market will actually improve (47 per cent vs 22 per cent). This disparity suggests differing expectations rooted in divergent experiences of opportunity. For many white young people, record-high taxes, soaring housing costs and sluggish wage growth seem to have narrowed their horizons and shaded their outlook more so than their black counterparts. By contrast, a sizeable minority of black respondents – perhaps buoyed by 'positive action' initiatives, like an internship scheme at MI5 and MI6 which recently went viral for explicitly prioritising candidates from ethnic minority backgrounds – are more optimistic about employment. NHS Quality Young people are deeply divided over the state of our health service. While 34 per cent of 18-30-year-olds believe NHS services have improved in recent years, 46 per cent say they have worsened. And there is a significant gender gap on this issue. A majority of young women (55 per cent) feel that care quality has declined, compared with 36 per cent of men. This gendered gulf reflects the heavier reliance women place on NHS services, from reproductive health to mental-health support, and underscores the growing frustration with inaccessible GP appointments, ballooning waiting lists and understaffed clinics. The perception that half of female patients have experienced a tangible drop in quality should ring alarm bells in Whitehall. It is no longer enough to tout headline funding figures; ministers must deliver reforms that cut waiting times, bolster frontline staffing and leverage technology for smarter triage.
The Independent
02-07-2025
- Business
- The Independent
Labour MP who led welfare revolt calls for wealth tax to meet £5bn cost of U-turn
The leader of the rebel Labour MPs who forced Sir Keir Starmer to abandon his welfare reforms has called for a wealth tax to meet the £5bn cost of the U turn. On Tuesday, the prime minister suffered the biggest blow to his leadership since coming into power a year ago after he was forced to shelve a key plank of his controversial benefit cuts in order to get them through parliament. While his welfare reform bill passed its second reading by 335 votes to 260 – a majority of 75 – the prime minister still suffered the largest rebellion of his premiership so far, with 42 Labour MPs voting to reject the legislation. Rachael Maskell, who led the backbench Labour rebellion which forced further changes to the reforms on Tuesday, suggested that as much as £24bn a year could be raised by increases in capital gains tax and other measures. Speaking in the wake of the rebellion, the Labour MP for York Central said: 'We need to look at those with the broader shoulders, as the prime minister said, contributing more into our system, but never pushing down on the poorest. 'And that was what the dynamic was yesterday, that we do need to look at things like a wealth tax, £24bn, or equalisation of capital gains tax.' Ms Maskell also accused the Treasury of 'fixing' the key benefits cuts, accusing them of having chosen to 'find savings on the backs of disabled people'. 'That was always going to be wrong', she said. The MP also warned Sir Keir he had to do more 'listening' to critics of his policies, saying the welfare rebellion had been a 'very steep learning curve' for him. Speaking to BBC Radio Four's Today programme, Ms Maskell said: 'We saw a change in power between the prime minister and disabled people across the country. We live in a very ableist world where disabled people are often invisible, seen and not heard until yesterday.' Ms Maskell has been one of Sir Keir's fiercest opponents in the welfare revolt, earlier calling the cuts 'Dickensian' and 'from another era'. Fellow Labour rebel Andy McDonald also said on Wednesday morning a tax on wealth, and equalising capital gains tax with income tax, should be used to make up the shortfall and invest in public services. He told Times Radio: 'If you listen to people like the Patriotic Millionaires, who've campaigned for higher taxes for themselves, these are people who've said in no uncertain terms that this country has given me every single opportunity, I've benefited from health and education and the opportunities presented to go into business. 'I've succeeded and I've flourished and I can afford to pay a little bit more. They're suggesting that a wealth tax of 2 per cent on assets over £10m will produce for the Treasury £24bn.' And yet another Labour rebel joined the calls, with MP Cat Eccles saying 'there are alternatives to just cutting money from vulnerable people'. Speaking to LBC, she said: 'There are alternatives to just cutting money from vulnerable people. HMRC wrote off £5bn in unpaid taxes, we're still trying to recoup money from Covid contracts, and we're still not meeting UN obligations on tax evasion.... and a possible wealth tax." Meanwhile former Labour MP Rosie Duffield, who quit in protest at Sir Keir's leadership in September last year, said there was an 'understanding' before the general election that the party would implement a wealth tax. 'But of course, it was all ditched pretty much in the first couple of weeks when winter fuel allowance was taken away from the elderly and it just dominoed down that route, so that people who couldn't really afford to be, you know, cut or punished as they feel, were. And it's just gone downhill since then,' she told Times Radio. She insisted it 'was definitely spoken about sort of in the PLP meetings and amongst veteran MPs', adding that there was 'a sort of understanding that that would be on the cards potentially, although not explicitly stated'. MPs voted to approve the government's watered down welfare bill after a last-ditch announcement that plans to restrict eligibility for personal independence payments (PIP) – which had been the central pillar of the government's reforms – were being dropped until after a review of the benefit has concluded. The latest climbdown will cause a major headache for chancellor Rachel Reeves; the welfare squeeze was intended to save £4.8bn a year, already watered down to £2.3bn last week. Postponing any changes to PIP means it is now uncertain how much the reforms will save. Last night the Institute for Fiscal Studies warned that the reforms package could even end up costing the taxpayer £100m by 2029-30 if proposals to tighten eligibility for PIP are scrapped following the Timms review. Amid fears that tax rises will be needed to fund the concessions, Cabinet minister Pat McFadden - one of the prime minister's closest allies - said the revolt would lead to spending cuts in other departments. He said: 'There is a cost to the decision taken yesterday [Tuesday], there is no denying that. 'You can't spend the same money twice so more money spent on that means less for some other purpose.' But the chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster refused to say if it would lead to tax rises, saying any such decision would be made at the next budget.
The Independent
01-07-2025
- Business
- The Independent
Everything you need to know about Labour's welfare reform U-turn
Sir Keir Starmer has offered a major concession to Labour MPs following widespread criticism over the government 's controversial plans to cut welfare spending. But ahead of the Universal Credit and Personal Independent Payment Bill's second reading in the Commons on Tuesday evening, some 39 backbenchers signed an amendment rejecting the legislation. Whether the changes will stave off the rebellion remains to be seen, as a large number of Labour MPs have signalled that they are still not happy with the package of measures. Earlier in the week, more than 130 Labour MPs signed a 'reasoned amendment' to the bill which would deliver the measures. If passed, it would have effectively stopped it in its tracks for the time being. However, Liz Kendall sent a letter to Labour MPs on Thursday night laying out two key changes 'to strengthen the bill' and the amendment's main sponsor Dame Meg Hillier, chair of the Treasury select committee, pulled it. The work and pensions secretary said: 'These important reforms are rooted in Labour values, and we want to get them right. We have listened to colleagues who support the principle of reform but are worried about the impact of the pace of change on those already supported by the system.' Although Labour has laid out several plans for welfare reform since March, the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill comprises changes those two benefits exclusively. Here's what you need to know about the measures and how they have changed: Cutting back PIP eligibility Currently claimed by 3.7 million people, PIP is designed to help with extra costs incurred by living with an illness or disability. The plans see the 'daily living' element of the benefit effectively become harder to claim as the eligibility criteria is tightened. Applicants are currently assessed based on how limited their ability is across ten activities, and awarded points between zero and eight for each based on severity. Under current rules, an applicant needs to be scored at least eight points in any combination to be awarded the lowest rate of PIP. Following the changes, they would need this and to have scored four of these points in a single activity. The planned changes would form the bulk of savings from Labour's welfare reforms, at an estimated £4.1 billion. Under these rules, around 1.5 million current claimants would not meet eligibility criteria, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) says. How has the measure changed? Following the concessions made by ministers, all current claimants would be assessed in the future under the current criteria rather than the proposed points system. Ms Kendall told MPs this decision has been made in recognition the proposed changes being 'a source of uncertainty and anxiety.' She has also announced that welfare minister Sir Stephen Timms will carry out a review of the whole pip system. However, critics say this threatens to create a 'two-tier' benefits system, with new claimants subject to tighter rules than existing ones. And numerous Labour MPs want the legislation delayed until have the Timms review is complete. Labour backbencher MP Alex Sobel told the BBC's Newsnight programme: 'Whether you acquire disability at birth, five years ago or tomorrow, it should be the same for everyone.' Changing Universal Credit rates The other key change in the bill sees the rates of Universal Credit rebalanced, with the standard rate rising while the health-related rate is cut back. Labour said it will 'rebalance payment levels' in Universal Credit to 'promote work and address perverse incentives' in the system, beginning in April 2026. The plans would bring in an across-the-board increase to the standard Universal Credit allowance for new and existing claims from April 2026. This will be a boost of £7 a week, to £106. At the same time, the payment rate for the health-related element of Universal Credit will be frozen. Those already receiving it, will still get £105 a week until 2029/30. Meanwhile, new claimants for this element will get just £54 a week – almost half. These claimants will continue to receive the standard Universal Credit allowance alongside this entitlement, and be eligible from the uplift to that as with any other claimant. Around 2.7 million families are forecast to be in receipt of the health element when the changes come into effect, the OBR says. How has the measure changed? Ms Kendall has confirmed that all existing claimants of the Universal Credit health element, alongside any new claimant meeting the severe conditions criteria, will have their incomes fully protected in real terms. Will the Labour rebels back down? Several issues were listed in the rebel amendment, with the text highlighting the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) stark analysis that the plans would push 250,000 into poverty, including 50,000 children. This figure has now reduced but is still at 150,000, according to the government's impact assessment, which has angered a number of Labour MPs. Another concern listed is that the government's decision not to conduct a formal consultation with disabled people regarding the two crucial reforms the bill entails. Addressing this Ms Kendall wrote to MPs: 'Colleagues rightly want to ensure that disabled people and those with ill health are at the heart of our reforms.' The DWP secretary adds that a ministerial review of the PIP assessment is underway led by disability minister Sir Stephen Timms, with disabled people 'at the heart'. However, this does not mean that the two measures in the bill will now receive formal consultations, meaning many are likely to feel that the criticism still stands. Dame Meg Hillier, lead Labour MP rebel, called the government's climbdown a 'good and workable compromise'. This is a major win for ministers, as her support is likely to convince several wavering MPs. However, another rebel leader Debbie Abrahams, the work and pensions committee chair, said: ''The actual offer that was put to one of the negotiating team wasn't actually what we thought we had negotiated. There are some issues around that." And a second amendment rejecting the Bill has been put forward by York Central MP Rachael Maskell with the backing of 138 disability groups, saying disabled people had 'yet to have agency in this process'.
The Guardian
15-06-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
Government's welfare plans must be pushed through, Starmer says
The government's welfare plans have to be pushed through, Keir Starmer has said, indicating that there will be no further concessions in the face of a potentially significant Labour rebellion over cuts to disability benefits. Speaking to reporters on his way to the G7 summit in Canada, the prime minister set out his determination to get the plans through parliament, after ministers warned mutinous MPs about the consequences of voting against the government. Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, has sought to offer some concessions before a Commons vote next month, with a large number of Labour MPs particularly worried about the tightening of eligibility rules on personal independence payments (Pips) for disabled people. 'We've got to reform the welfare system,' Starmer said when asked about the prospect of a rebellion, with some estimates saying as many as 170 MPs could oppose the plans. 'Everybody agrees with that proposition, so we've got to do that basic reform,' he said. 'It doesn't work for those that need support and help into work, and it doesn't work for the taxpayer. 'So, it's got to be reformed. The principles remain the same; those who can work should work. Those who need support into work should have that support into work, which I don't think they are getting at the moment. 'Those who are never going to be able to work should be properly supported and protected, and that includes not being reassessed and reassessed. So, they are the principles. We need to do reform and we will be getting on with that reform when the bill comes.' Sign up to First Edition Our morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what's happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion Pressed on whether this meant there would be no more concessions, Starmer replied: 'Well, we have got to get the reforms through and I have been clear about that from start to finish. The system is not working. It's not working for those that need support; it's not working for taxpayers. Everybody agrees it needs reform. We have got to reform it and that is what we intend to do.' The seemingly tough line follows efforts by ministers to try to reassure possible rebels and, when needed, to warn them against voting down the welfare bill. Some MPs had said there were suggestions the vote could be treated as a confidence issue, with those rebelling facing suspension from the whip or even deselection. No 10 and government sources denied this. But plans have been drawn up for a possible reshuffle if any ministers resign. The biggest sticking points in the plans, first put forward in March in a welfare green paper and intended to save £5bn a year, are the revised rules on Pip, and on benefits for carers. According to a government response to a Liberal Democrat parliamentary question last month, up to 1.3 million people across England and Wales could lose at least some support under the changes. It showed that under the current proposals, which would come into effect next year, about 1.1 million standard-rate Pip claimants and 200,000 enhanced-rate claimants could lose at least some of the payment. The government data gave statistics by parliamentary constituency, showing the impact in more deprived areas. The constituency with the most people who could lose support was Liverpool Walton, followed by Blackpool South and Liverpool Riverside. About 5,000 people in each area could lose some Pip payments.
