Latest news with #LargeMagellanicCloud
New York Post
3 hours ago
- General
- New York Post
Is this the end of the world? How a galactic pile-up could bring Earth's violent end: Cosmic ‘coin flip'
Forget killer asteroids and nuclear annihilation — Earth's ultimate fate may hinge on a cosmic coin toss. Astronomers have revealed that our Milky Way galaxy has a 50/50 chance of colliding with its massive neighbor, the Andromeda galaxy, sometime in the next 10 billion years — an intergalactic smash-up that could fling our solar system into deep space or swallow Earth whole. Cue the sci-fi panic — or not. 'It used to appear destined to merge with Andromeda forming a colossal 'Milkomeda,'' said Professor Alis Deason, a computational cosmologist at Durham University, per The Daily Mail. 'Now, there is a chance that we could avoid this fate entirely.' In other words: The end of the world may not be as inevitable as we thought — at least not from the galaxy next door. 3 It's a cosmic coin toss: Astronomers say the Milky Way has a 50/50 shot at slamming into the giant Andromeda galaxy — a galactic train wreck that could hurl Earth into deep space or gobble it up for good. NASA/ESA/AFP via Getty Images The new study, published in 'Nature Astronomy,' analyzed 100,000 simulations of the Milky Way's future. The findings — thanks to refined data from NASA's Hubble Space Telescope and the European Space Agency's Gaia mission — dramatically downshifted previous predictions of a guaranteed galactic pile-up in just 5 billion years. 'In short, the probability went from near-certainty to a coin flip,' lead author Dr. Till Sawala, of the University of Helsinki, revealed to The findings factor in the gravitational tug of neighboring galaxies — most notably the Large Magellanic Cloud, a much smaller satellite galaxy whose pull may be yanking the Milky Way off a crash course. 'The main difference between our research and previous studies is that we benefited from newer and more precise data, and that we considered a more complete system,' Sawala said to the site. While a 220,000 mph galaxy-on-galaxy collision sounds catastrophic, astronomers say a head-on impact is 'very unlikely.' 3 New data from NASA's Hubble and Europe's Gaia missions just pumped the brakes on doomsday, slashing the odds of a galactic fender-bender once pegged for 5 billion years out. Nature Astronomy In fact, only 2% of simulations showed a direct hit within 5 billion years. Most scenarios had the galaxies swirling toward each other, possibly merging much later — or not at all. Still, if they do collide, it could be a literal star show. 'We see external galaxies often colliding and merging with other galaxies, sometimes producing the equivalent of cosmic fireworks,' said Durham cosmologist Professor Carlos Frenk, via The Daily Mail. 'Until now, we thought this was the fate that awaited our Milky Way galaxy. We now know that there is a very good chance that we may avoid that scary destiny.' But even if Earth sidesteps this stellar shakedown, don't get too comfortable. As The Post previously reported, our sun is expected to become a bloated red giant in about 5 billion years — likely boiling away Earth's oceans or swallowing the planet entirely. So, yeah. Pick your apocalypse. 3 The new study shows nearby galaxies — especially the smaller but mighty Large Magellanic Cloud — are messing with the Milky Way's path, possibly steering it away from a cosmic crash. ESA/ATG medialab / SWNS 'If [the Milky Way-Andromeda collision] happens, it might take place after the Earth and the sun no longer exist,' Sawala told The Daily Mail. 'Even if it happens before that, it's very unlikely that something would happen to Earth in this case.' Translation: By the time the universe gets around to smashing the Milky Way, we'll probably already be toast. Still, some experts say galactic fate is more than just an astronomer's obsession. 'The fate of our Milky Way galaxy is a subject of broad interest — not just to astronomers,' Raja GuhaThakurta of the University of California, Santa Cruz, told the Associated Press. And while the galaxy might survive — barely — we may not. As Sawala put it: 'Of course, there is also a very significant chance that humanity will bring an end to itself still much before that, without any need for astrophysical help.' Talk about a stellar self-own.
Yahoo
7 hours ago
- General
- Yahoo
The Milky Way may not collide with neighboring galaxy Andromeda after all: 'From near-certainty to a coin flip'
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. A titanic cosmic collision between the Milky Way and its closest large galactic neighbor, Andromeda, may not be as sure a thing as scientists thought. Previously, it had been proposed that there was a good chance that Andromeda and our galactic home, which are moving together, would meet in around 5 billion years and merge to form a daughter galaxy dubbed "Milkomeda." New research has revealed that there is a much smaller chance that these two spiral galaxies will slam into each other and merge over the next 10 billion years than was believed. In fact, it's about 50/50. "Our main finding is that the merger between the Milky Way and Andromeda, which had been predicted to occur in around 4.5 billion years, is actually much less certain. We found only about a 50% chance that this merger will happen during the next 10 billion years," team leader and University of Helsinki researcher Til Sawala told "In short, the probability went from near-certainty to a coin flip. "I was prepared to find something different, but yes, the fact that there is only around a 50/50 chance of a merger was very surprising." Sawala and colleagues reached this conclusion by simulating the next 10 billion years of the Milky Way's journey through the new simulation was based on updated astronomical data from the Hubble Space Telescope and from the European Space Agency (ESA) star tracking mission Gaia. The team also factored in new estimates of the masses of smaller dwarf galaxies around the Milky Way, which, via their gravitational influence, impact the cosmic passage of the Milky Way. "The main difference between our research and previous studies is that we benefited from newer and more precise data, and that we considered a more complete system, including the effect of the Large Magellanic Cloud, the Milky Way's largest satellite galaxy," Sawala said. The team was able to present different scenarios of what could become of the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies as they gradually move together."A head-on collision is very unlikely, we found a less than 2% chance for that. In most of the cases that lead to a merger, the two galaxies will indeed fly past each other at first, which will lead to a loss of orbital energy, and subsequently to a merger," Sawala said. "How close they come on their first passage is very uncertain, however, and if they don't come very close, meaning if their distance is more than around 500,000 light-years, they might not merge at all." The researchers found that if the orbits of the Milky Way and Andromeda come close enough for the two galaxies to gravitationally influence each other, then a merger is an eventuality. "But it's almost equally likely that they stay well separated, in which case they won't merge, and also continue to evolve mostly in isolation," The team found that while the odds of a merger with Andromeda drop when the Large Magellanic Cloud's influence is considered, with this adjustment, the Milky Way becomes more likely to cannibalize this satellite dwarf to this research, our galaxy is almost certain to merge with the Large Magellanic Cloud over the next 2 billion years. Related Stories: — Why do dwarf galaxies line up? 'Zippers' and 'twisters' in the early universe may solve a galactic mystery — Scientists calculate when the universe will end — it's sooner than expected — Amateur astrophotographer captures a stunning galaxy 24 million light-years from Earth (photo) "Of course, now we really want to find out whether the Milky Way and Andromeda will collide or not," Sawala said. "That will not only need more observational data, but also more complete modelling of their interaction, as well as of the effect of the environment in which they evolve. "Luckily, there will be more observational data coming very soon, next year, from the Gaia Space Telescope, and perhaps also from the Hubble Space Telescope." The team's research was published on Monday (June 2) in the journal Nature Astronomy.
Yahoo
8 hours ago
- General
- Yahoo
There's a 50/50 Chance the Milky Way and Andromeda Galaxy Will Merge
The universe might not meet its end for another quinvigintillion years, but our galaxy's fate teeters on a far less certain line. New research shows that there's a 50% chance that the Milky Way and its nearest major galactic neighbor, the Andromeda Galaxy, will converge within the next 10 billion years. Previous analyses have made out the convergence to be a sure-fire thing, but it turns out that one dwarf galaxy is recalibrating the scales. Though about 2.5 million light-years currently lie between the Milky Way and Andromeda, the two galaxies are creeping closer to each other. In 1913, astronomer Vesto Melvin Slipher noticed via Arizona's Lowell Observatory that Andromeda (then known as the Andromeda Nebula) was approaching the Milky Way at 186 miles per second. Since then, researchers have not only verified Slipher's math but also found via multiple simulations that Andromeda will someday combine with the Milky Way. One paper from 2021 even proposes that the two galaxies will meet 4.3 billion years from now, with a complete merger taking another 6 billion years after that. But these simulations failed to account for one small yet mighty factor: the Large Magellanic Cloud. Roughly 160,000 light-years from our Milky Way, this dwarf galaxy has long been considered an insignificant part of the so-called Local Group. But in 2015, the beginning of the Survey of the MAgellanic Stellar History, or SMASH, found that the Large Magellanic Cloud was larger and more complex than initially thought. Astronomers have spent the years since sifting through SMASH data for dwarf galaxy secrets. Illustration of a hypothetical merger between the Milky Way and Andromeda Galaxy. Credit: NASA, ESA, STScI, DSS, Till Sawala (University of Helsinki); Image Processing: Joseph DePasquale (STScI) It's for this reason that the latest Milky Way-Andromeda merger simulation actually includes the Large Magellanic Cloud. To cover for every possible uncertainty, an international team of astronomers ran their simulation nearly 100,000 times and found that just under 50% of the time, the Milky Way and Andromeda collided and merged. Alternately dropping different nearby galaxies showed that Messier 33 (the third largest galaxy in the Local Group) made a merger more likely, while the Large Magellanic Cloud reduced the odds of a convergence. That's because the Large Magellanic Cloud pulls the Milky Way out of Andromeda's path, as a comic book hero would pull a civilian off some train tracks. The Large Magellanic Cloud might only get to bask in its glory for a few hundred million years, however. The researchers' simulation showed that the Milky Way will almost certainly collide with the Large Magellanic Cloud in 2 billion years, disappearing the latter galaxy. As observatories gather more data about the universe—and scientists' models inevitably become more advanced—we'll find out whether the Large Magellanic Cloud really will swoop in to save the day. Of course, we won't see the benefit either way. But it will be nice to know whether our galactic home will continue to exist after we're gone.
Yahoo
a day ago
- General
- Yahoo
The Milky Way was on a collision course with a neighboring galaxy. Not anymore
More than a decade ago, scientists predicted our Milky Way galaxy and neighboring Andromeda would collide in four billion years, resulting in a 'makeover' of our solar system. Now, that is unlikely — at least within the expected timeframe. 'We see external galaxies often colliding and merging with other galaxies, sometimes producing the equivalent of cosmic fireworks when gas, driven to the center of the merger remnant, feeds a central black hole emitting an enormous amount of radiation, before irrevocably falling into the hole,' explained Durham University Professor Carlos Frenk. 'Until now we thought this was the fate that awaited our Milky Way galaxy,' he said in a statement. 'We now know that there is a very good chance that we may avoid that scary destiny.' Previous research from NASA astronomers had found that the collision with our closest neighbor galaxy would fling the sun to a new region of space, although the Earth would not be destroyed. The stars would be sent into different orbits. Right now, the galaxies are heading toward each other with a speed of approximately 62 miles per second. But, following 100,000 simulations of both galaxies based on the latest observational data from NASA's Hubble and the European Space Agency's Gaia space telescopes, the authors of the study that was published in the journal Nature Astronomy found just a 2 percent probability that the Milky Way and Andromeda would crash into each other over the course of the next five billion years. In more than half of the scenarios, the galaxies experienced at least one close encounter before they lost enough orbital energy to collide and merge. However, that would occur in some eight-to-10 billion years. By that time, the sun may have burnt itself out when it runs out of hydrogen, consuming the Earth. But, in most other cases, the galaxies pass each other by without incident, although there is room for uncertainty. Furthermore, the authors assert that previous research was not incorrect, but that they were able to incorporate more variables in their simulations. 'While some earlier works had focused on the interaction between the Milky Way, Andromeda, and the Triangulum galaxy, we also include the effect of the Large Magellanic Cloud,' lead author Dr. Till Sawala, of the University of Helsinki, said. The cloud is a dwarf galaxy that orbits the Milky Way. 'Although its mass is only around 15 percent of the Milky Way's, its gravitational pull directed perpendicular to the orbit with Andromeda perturbs the Milky Way's motion enough to significantly reduce the chance of a merger with the Andromeda galaxy.' However, the authors are already looking to update their findings with new data. The European Space Agency's Gaia space telescope will soon provide more precise measurements of crucial factors within the galaxies, including the motion of Andromeda. Still, Frenk said the results are a 'testimony' to the power of large supercomputers. 'When I see the results of our calculations, I am astonished that we are able to simulate with such precision the evolution of gigantic collections of stars over billions of years and figure out their ultimate fate,' he added.
Yahoo
a day ago
- General
- Yahoo
Once inevitable collision between Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies now seems less likely, astronomers say
Sign up for CNN's Wonder Theory science newsletter. Explore the universe with news on fascinating discoveries, scientific advancements and more. A collision between our Milky Way galaxy and its largest neighbor, the Andromeda galaxy, predicted to occur in about 4.5 billion years, has been anticipated by astronomers since 1912. But new research suggests that the likelihood of this galactic clash, dubbed 'Milkomeda,' is smaller than it seems. At first glance, it appears likely that the galactic duo — separated by about 2.5 million light-years — is on an inevitable collision course. The Milky Way and Andromeda are barreling toward each other at about 223,694 miles per hour (100 kilometers per second). However, the Local Group, or our corner of the universe, includes 100 known smaller galaxies. A team of astronomers factored in some of the largest among them, including the Large Magellanic Cloud, or LMC, and M33, or the Triangulum galaxy, to see how much of a role they might play on the chessboard of our galaxy's future over the next 10 billion years. After factoring in the gravitational pull of Local Group galaxies and running 100,000 simulations using new data from the Hubble and Gaia space telescopes, the team found there is about a 50% chance of a collision between the Milky Way and Andromeda in the next 10 billion years. There is only about a 2% chance the galaxies will collide in 4 to 5 billion years as previously thought, according to the study published Monday in the journal Nature Astronomy. A merger of the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies would destroy them both, eventually turning both spiral structures into one elongated galaxy, the study authors said. Collisions between other galaxies have been known to create 'cosmic fireworks, when gas, driven to the center of the merger remnant, feeds a central black hole emitting an enormous amount of radiation, before irrevocably falling into the hole,' said study coauthor Carlos Frenk, professor at Durham University in England. 'Until now we thought this was the fate that awaited our Milky Way galaxy,' Frenk said. 'We now know that there is a very good chance that we may avoid that scary destiny.' However, there are many unknown factors that make it difficult to predict the ultimate fate of our galaxy, according to the study authors. And, Frenk warns, the Milky Way has a greater chance of colliding with the LMC within 2 billion years, which could fundamentally alter our galaxy. The LMC orbits the Milky Way, while M33 is a satellite of Andromeda. The LMC's mass is only about 15% of the Milky Way's. But the team found that the satellite galaxy has a gravitational pull, perpendicular to Andromeda, that changes the Milky Way's motion enough to reduce the chance of a merger between the two giant galaxies. It's a similar case for M33. 'The extra mass of Andromeda's satellite galaxy M33 pulls the Milky Way a little bit more towards it,' said lead study author Dr. Till Sawala, astronomer at the University of Helsinki in Finland. 'However, we also show that the LMC pulls the Milky Way off the orbital plane and away from Andromeda. It doesn't mean that the LMC will save us from that merger, but it makes it a bit less likely.' Previous research also has assumed most likely values for unknown data, such as the uncertainties in the present positions, motions and masses of the Local Group galaxies. In the new study, the team accounted for 22 different variables, including those unknowns, that could contribute to a collision. 'We ran many thousands of simulations, which allowed us to account for all the observational uncertainties,' Sawala said. 'Because there are so many variables that each have their errors, that accumulates to rather large uncertainty about the outcome, leading to the conclusion that the chance of a direct collision is only 50% within the next 10 billion years.' In just over half of the simulations predicting what could occur in 8 to 10 billion years, the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies initially sailed somewhat closely past each other before circling back and then losing enough orbital energy to collide and merge as one galaxy. These initial close encounters between each galaxy's halo — a large envelope of gas — would eventually lead to a collision. 'In general, the merger would most likely involve a strong starburst, during which many new stars would form, followed by a period of intense radiation caused by exploding young stars and the newly active supermassive black hole, eventually shutting down star formation completely,' Sawala said. 'A few billion years later, any traces of the former Milky Way and Andromeda would disappear, and the remnant would be a largely featureless elliptical galaxy.' In the other simulations, both galaxies crossed paths without disturbing each other. Geraint Lewis, a professor of astrophysics at the University of Sydney's Institute for Astronomy, finds the results showing the gravitational influence of M33 and the LMC interesting. He has previously authored research on a potential collision between Andromeda and the Milky Way. 'We won't know if the collision is definitely off in the future, but this clearly shows that the story that people tell — that there will be a collision that will destroy the Milky Way and Andromeda — is not as clear or certain that people think,' Lewis said. 'But even if there is a pretty close encounter rather than smashing head-on, the gravitational tearing that each will assert on each other is likely to leave the two large galaxies in a sorry state.' While including the LMC's gravitational effects on the Milky Way is important, accounting for uncertainties is the most important aspect of the new study, said Scott Lucchini, a postdoctoral fellow in the Institute for Theory and Computation at the Center for Astrophysics, Harvard & Smithsonian. 'Here, they've sampled from the uncertainties in the positions, velocities, and masses of the galaxies to obtain the relative probabilities of different outcomes,' Lucchini wrote in an email. 'This really gives us the whole picture of what could happen in the future.' Galaxies are full of intricacies. Their shapes can become distorted, interactions can change their orbits and they can lose mass in different ways. Such complexities make predictions difficult, Lucchini said. That essentially leaves the fate of the Milky Way 'completely open,' the study authors wrote in the new paper. However, more data coming from the Gaia space telescope in the summer of 2026 will provide measurements that refine some of the uncertainties about the speed and direction at which Andromeda is moving across the sky, Sawala said. The fate of the sun may have a bigger impact on Earth's future than the motions of galaxies, according to the researchers. Our sun is 4.5 billion years old. When it starts to die in another 5 billion years, it will swell into a red giant that engulfs Mercury, Venus and potentially Earth, according to NASA. 'The short answer is that the end of the sun is far worse for our planet than the collision with Andromeda,' Sawala said. 'While that merger would mean the end of our galaxy, it would not necessarily be the end of the sun or the Earth. Although our work also shows that earlier studies, that purported to predict precisely what the fate of the solar system would be after the merger, were clearly premature, in general, collisions between stars or planets are extremely rare during galaxy mergers. And while the end of the sun is certain, our study shows that the end of the galaxy is anything but.' While the team didn't model a merger between the LMC and the Milky Way in detail, they found a 'virtual certainty' that a merger between the two galaxies will occur within the next 2 billion years, which aligns with previous research, Sawala said. But the effects will likely be more minor than a merger between the Milky Way and Andromeda. 'The merger (between the Milky Way and the LMC) will not destroy our galaxy but it will change it profoundly, particularly impacting our central supermassive black hole and the galactic halo,' Frenck wrote in an email. He also served as a coauthor on a 2019 paper on the potential merger.
