Latest news with #LarryMcDonald
CNBC
2 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Buy hard assets like gold ahead of a potential bond market panic, says Bear Traps' Larry McDonald
The potential issuance of more than $1 trillion in new government debt could make commodities a smarter defensive plays than bonds, according to "The Bear Traps Report" founder Larry McDonald. McDonald estimated that in the six months from September 1 through about February the U.S. is looking at about $1.5 trillion of new debt issuance from government. That would amount to about $600 billion more than last year, McDonald said, and the issue could be exacerbated by any delay in the tax-and-spending bill that recently passed the House of Representatives. The idea is that the large new issuances of bonds, and the forecasts for a continuing annual deficit of the federal government, would put more pressure on a bond market that has already seen volatile moves in yields so far this year. "We think $4 to $6 trillion is going to move from financial assets — which are just paper certificates, right, stock certificates, bonds — over to hard assets," McDonald said on " Squawk Box ." Those hard assets could be precious metals, like gold, silver and platinum, which have already performed well in 2025. McDonald also said that agricultural commodities could be an area to watch. "The old 60/40 portfolio should maybe be 30/30/30/10, in other words a much larger component of commodities," where the 30% slices are bonds, stocks and the commodities and the 10% piece is cash, he added. @GC.1 YTD mountain Gold futures YTD It can be difficult for individual investors to gain large exposure to hard assets directly, but there are many ETFs on the market that buy and hold commodities or commodity futures. For example, the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) has about $860 million in assets under management, and SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has about $100 billion in assets. To be sure, McDonald did not predict that a bond market panic will necessarily happen within the next 12 months. He said that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been making moves to help the bond market. One of those is a potential change the supplementary leverage ratio, expected this summer, which would allow banks to hold more government debt on their balance sheets. McDonald is also the author of the new book "How to Listen When Markets Speak."
Yahoo
16-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The overlooked sectors primed to beat Nvidia
You can catch Opening Bid on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. In the latest episode of Opening Bid, Larry McDonald breaks down the massive disconnect between Nvidia's (NVDA) soaring valuation and the underpriced sectors essential to its growth. He argues that copper, oil, and uranium stocks—key to powering AI infrastructure—are trading at steep discounts and present a major opportunity for investors betting on the future of AI. For full episodes of Opening Bid, listen on your favorite podcast platform or watch on our website. This post was written by Langston Sessoms, producer for Opening Bid. Where's the appetite to jump in here and buy Nvidia off the off of ties? Okay, so within the last week, Nvidia, both Exxon and Chevron combined. Exxon and Chevron were only 29% of Nvidia's market cap. Uh, the entire copper industry, copper like your free ports and all these just look at the CLPX ETF. If you add up the value of all those companies, it's a fraction of Nvidia. But if you really, really, really listen to Jensen and the Nvidia gods, um the only way they get to their gross trajectory that's needed to justify that close to a 3 trillion dollar valuation, the only way you get there is with a lot more copper. So, if you look at the copper names or the oil names, they're down 30, sometimes 25, 30% off the highs and the future looks great for them because the valuation setup is so skewed just in videos up here in the entire copper industries here. Nvidia's here, the entire uranium industry for all the nuclear power they're going to need to find to finance not to finance to power all this all these new AI data centers, right? So it's so skewed. So you can make a lot of money by investing in the power infrastructure plays. Uh, your SMRs or there's a lot of ETFs that that are in the space. URM, right? Where you're investing in a basket of companies that are going to power AI for the next 30 years. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
14-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why China is a huge risk to your finances
You can catch Opening Bid on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts, On the latest episode of Opening Bid, Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, joins host Brian Sozzi to discuss whether China — the second-largest holder of US Treasurys — could spark a sell-off amid escalating trade tensions with the U.S. For full episodes of Opening Bid, listen on your favorite podcast platform or watch on our website. This post was written by Langston Sessoms, producer for Opening Bid. So China, what, the second largest holder of treasuries, uh, and they're getting hit with these large tariffs from the Trump administration. Do you envision them dumping treasuries? If so, do they do so aggressively? And what are the ramifications of China doing that to the US economy? See that that's part of the the the scare out there is that China doesn't even have to dump, but if they if they leak that they might dump, uh, then other people try to get in front of that. Um, there's also a lot of banks that that are in this this whole basis trade. That's a big problem. That's unwinding a lot of hedge funds, really, that are in this trade. And that that's unwinding. So it's like a combination of China and people worrying about China and Japan. Um, you know what, we're in a trade war with them. Maybe they're not going to be there to buy our bonds. And so there's that worry, and then we have this very complicated basis trade that's blowing up. And so those three those things are happening at the exact same time. So at the end of the day, what I talked about on my video is the last 30 years when whenever there was a crash in the stock market, when Lehman went down, you made eight trillion, investors made, well, they lost eight trillion of stock value, but they made three and a half trillion back on bonds. And when COVID hit, investors lost $9 trillion, but they made $4 trillion back on their bonds. Imagine that. Now, we've lost nine trillion bucks the last since February 19th, $9 trillion. And you basically haven't made anything back on the bond side. Sign in to access your portfolio
