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A storm with catastrophic consequences brewing
A storm with catastrophic consequences brewing

IOL News

time11-05-2025

  • Politics
  • IOL News

A storm with catastrophic consequences brewing

Members of civil society take part in a peace rally in Lahore, Pakistan on May 6, 2025. The mutual weaponisation of conflict makes de-escalation difficult. When political survival becomes tied to nationalistic posturing, the space for diplomacy shrinks, says the writer. Dr. Reneva Fourie THE latest escalation of military tensions between India and Pakistan is a stark reminder of the fragility of peace. Border skirmishes, intensified military manoeuvres, and inflammatory rhetoric from both sides have renewed fears of a conflict that could potentially spiral completely out of control. These developments seriously threaten regional stability and international peace and security, prompting urgent calls for de-escalation from the global community. On 7 May, India launched 'Operation Sindoor', a military offensive targeting what it claimed were terrorist infrastructures linked to militant organisations Lashkar-e-Tayyiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. These strikes, India said, were in direct response to the killing of 26 civilians, primarily Indian tourists, in the India-administered region of Kashmir. India has blamed Pakistan-based groups for the attack, holding Islamabad responsible. Pakistan viewed the strikes as a violation of its sovereignty, claiming that India targeted civilian sites, including the densely populated Punjab province, compelling it to retaliate. One must revisit the area's fractured history to understand the current crisis. The origins of the India-Pakistan conflict emanate from decades of distrust and a colonial legacy that left unresolved tensions. British colonial authorities implemented a 'divide and rule' strategy, which involved the exploitation of ethnic and religious cleavages to maintain dominance. These policies deepened Hindu-Muslim divides and fuelled the eventual demand for separate states. The 1947 partitioning, which resulted in the creation of two separate states – India and Pakistan – was not merely administrative; it was accompanied by one of the largest mass migrations in human history and widespread communal violence. An estimated 12 to 20 million people were displaced, and over a million killed in sectarian violence. This traumatic process entrenched deep-seated animosities between the two newly formed states. In their haste to exit the region, the borders drawn by the British were arbitrary. They rushed, leaving behind unresolved territorial disputes, most notably the question of Kashmir, which was left in limbo. The lack of a formal dispute resolution process set the stage for decades of hostility and violence. Since then, India and Pakistan have engaged in multiple wars and countless border skirmishes, with Kashmir remaining the most sensitive flashpoint. Each confrontation has widened the trust deficit and made future reconciliation more difficult. Both India and Pakistan have used this rivalry for political gain, particularly during moments of internal crisis. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have often used national security issues to strengthen their nationalist credentials. Following previous incidents, such as the 2016 Uri attack and the 2019 Pulwama bombing, the government employed a heavy-handed response that played well with its Hindu nationalist base. Such strategies are often deployed to divert attention from domestic challenges, including high unemployment, inflation and economic stagnation. The narrative of a strong government defending the nation from external threats allows the ruling party to consolidate political unity and marginalise dissent. Pakistan has employed similar tactics. Facing internal instability, including economic hardship, political turmoil, and the persistent threat of terrorism, Pakistani leaders often amplify anti-India rhetoric to redirect public attention and rally national cohesion. The use of Kashmir as a unifying grievance serves both regimes, though at the cost of deepening regional instability. The mutual weaponisation of conflict makes de-escalation difficult. When political survival becomes tied to nationalistic posturing, the space for diplomacy shrinks. What distinguishes the India-Pakistan conflict from many other bilateral disputes is the presence of nuclear weapons on both sides. Any large-scale confrontation risks nuclear escalation, either through miscalculation or desperation. The impact of a full-scale war would be catastrophic. A war would devastate the economies and infrastructure in both India and Pakistan, destabilise Afghanistan, and potentially affect Iran, China, and Central Asia. It would put significant pressure on the United States, which would be forced to balance ties between its strategic partner, India and long-time ally, Pakistan, with whom it shares military and intelligence networks. And given that South Asia is home to over 1.7 billion people, a war here would severely hit the tech and services sectors, spike commodity prices and disrupt global trade through the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. This regional conflict could quickly degenerate into an international crisis. While BRICS is not a formal peace-brokering entity, its member states, particularly China, should consider taking on a more proactive diplomatic role to help de-escalate tensions between India and Pakistan. Both countries are China's immediate neighbours and important economic partners, which places China in a unique position to mediate and facilitate dialogue. Beijing's influence and vested interest in maintaining regional stability, especially in light of its Belt and Road Initiative and ongoing trade partnerships, give it both the leverage and the responsibility to encourage peaceful engagement. The current trajectory of escalating military rhetoric and actions between India and Pakistan poses not only a grave threat to South Asian stability but also to global peace and economic security. A military conflict between two nuclear-armed states could have devastating consequences far beyond the region. The United Nations, which has already cautioned against the dangers of a full-scale confrontation, must go beyond issuing warnings. It should actively pursue avenues of de-escalation through track-two diplomacy, engaging civil society, retired officials, and academics from both sides. Additionally, the UN should work to implement confidence-building measures such as military-to-military hotlines, joint ceasefire monitoring, and initiatives that promote people-to-people contact. The urgency of the moment demands immediate, coordinated international action. The recent escalation between India and Pakistan is a stark reminder of how unresolved historical grievances, nationalistic politics, and external miscalculations can threaten not just a region but the world at large. What began as a response to a terrorist attack now teeters on the edge of full-scale war, with nuclear overtones and global socio-economic risks. Both countries must show restraint, and the international community must rise to the occasion. If the international community fails to act decisively, the consequences may well be irreversible, for South Asia and the world at large. * Dr Reneva Fourie is a policy analyst specialising in governance, development and security. ** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL, Independent Media or The African.

Opinion - No pass for Pakistan-sponsored terrorism
Opinion - No pass for Pakistan-sponsored terrorism

Yahoo

time10-05-2025

  • Politics
  • Yahoo

Opinion - No pass for Pakistan-sponsored terrorism

On Apr. 22, in the valley of Pahalgam, where newlyweds and vacationing families were capturing moments of joy against the backdrop of another Indian summer, sudden barbaric violence shattered the calm as four terrorists sponsored and supported by Pakistan mercilessly executed 26 innocents. They tore apart families — husbands from wives, siblings from one another, parents from their children — executing them with chilling precision. Adding to the horror, the perpetrators sought to infuse their carnage with a sectarian veneer, demanding victims declare their religious affiliations. This attempt to communalize the atrocity was thwarted by an act of profound courage — a local Kashmiri Muslim, in defiance of the terrorists' divisive intent, sacrificed his life to shield the tourists. This brutal act of terror only fills up the catalogue of terrorist attacks sponsored by Pakistan against India. Reasi in 2024, Pulwama in 2019, Uri and Pathankot attacks in 2016 and the 2008 siege of Mumbai — where 166 lives, including six Americans, were killed — form a grim list that defies comprehension. Terror in Pahalgam brings another spotlight on the nature of the Pakistani state and its parentage of syndicate of terrorist proxies operating from its soil. Pakistan prides itself in harboring and defending proscribed terrorist groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, and their front organizations like the Resistance Front which claimed responsibility for the Pahalgam attack. While Pakistan leaders' posture on the global stage, proclaiming victimhood and demanding joint investigations to deflect allegations of complicity, they simultaneously shelter and embolden terrorist figures at home. It is incredible how well their strategy of hoodwinking and denial has worked for them. It worked for Pakistan when they sheltered Osama bin Laden. It worked for them when they knowingly and falsely declared dead 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and Sajid Mir, the man behind the Mumbai attacks. It worked for them when they orchestrated the release of Ahmed Saeed Omar Sheikh, a terrorist India was forced to release in a hostage exchange, who went on to murder Daniel Pearl. And sadly they continue to persist with it. The recurrent pattern is unmistakable: Whenever inconvenient truths surface regarding Pakistan's entanglement with terrorist organizations, its officials deftly concede a measure of historical complicity, thereby deflecting scrutiny from contemporary accusations. This rhetorical sleight-of-hand, a calculated maneuver, consistently yields dividends, shielding the state from accountability. History, as the adage warns, condemns the ignorant to its repetition. From its inception, the Pakistani state — most notably its military, which has systematically prevented any elected prime minister from completing a full term — has fixated on the territorial conquest of Kashmir, purely on religious grounds. In moments of domestic turmoil — be it political missteps, economic collapse, or ideological discord — the military apparatus invariably redirects the national gaze toward Kashmir, conjuring the specter of an existential Indian threat. This manufactured bogeyman serves the singular purpose of subduing the Pakistani populace, ensuring their acquiescence to the military's agenda. More than 40,000 people, civilian and security forces have lost their lives in India due to terrorism. As a respected and responsible member of the comity of nations, India has never sought a violent solution to any conflict. But we cannot choose to not act when terrorists unleash such horror. We do not stand alone today when we say there is zero tolerance for terrorism. After the terror attack, India undertook measured and non-escalatory strikes against these terror apparatuses operating in Pakistan. In response the Pakistan Army, in its usual war mongering manner, has sought to escalate the situation by carrying out strikes against Indian civilian and military infrastructure. It has chosen to stand with the terrorists. India does not seek an escalation. Our war is against terrorism. It is not against the people of Pakistan. Vinay Kwatra is India's ambassador to the U.S. and its former foreign secretary. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

No pass for Pakistan-sponsored terrorism
No pass for Pakistan-sponsored terrorism

The Hill

time10-05-2025

  • Politics
  • The Hill

No pass for Pakistan-sponsored terrorism

On Apr. 22, in the valley of Pahalgam, where newlyweds and vacationing families were capturing moments of joy against the backdrop of another Indian summer, sudden barbaric violence shattered the calm as four terrorists sponsored and supported by Pakistan mercilessly executed 26 innocents. They tore apart families — husbands from wives, siblings from one another, parents from their children — executing them with chilling precision. Adding to the horror, the perpetrators sought to infuse their carnage with a sectarian veneer, demanding victims declare their religious affiliations. This attempt to communalize the atrocity was thwarted by an act of profound courage — a local Kashmiri Muslim, in defiance of the terrorists' divisive intent, sacrificed his life to shield the tourists. This brutal act of terror only fills up the catalogue of terrorist attacks sponsored by Pakistan against India. Reasi in 2024, Pulwama in 2019, Uri and Pathankot attacks in 2016 and the 2008 siege of Mumbai — where 166 lives, including six Americans, were killed — form a grim list that defies comprehension. Terror in Pahalgam brings another spotlight on the nature of the Pakistani state and its parentage of syndicate of terrorist proxies operating from its soil. Pakistan prides itself in harboring and defending proscribed terrorist groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, and their front organizations like the Resistance Front which claimed responsibility for the Pahalgam attack. While Pakistan leaders' posture on the global stage, proclaiming victimhood and demanding joint investigations to deflect allegations of complicity, they simultaneously shelter and embolden terrorist figures at home. It is incredible how well their strategy of hoodwinking and denial has worked for them. It worked for Pakistan when they sheltered Osama bin Laden. It worked for them when they knowingly and falsely declared dead 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and Sajid Mir, the man behind the Mumbai attacks. It worked for them when they orchestrated the release of Ahmed Saeed Omar Sheikh, a terrorist India was forced to release in a hostage exchange, who went on to murder Daniel Pearl. And sadly they continue to persist with it. The recurrent pattern is unmistakable: Whenever inconvenient truths surface regarding Pakistan's entanglement with terrorist organizations, its officials deftly concede a measure of historical complicity, thereby deflecting scrutiny from contemporary accusations. This rhetorical sleight-of-hand, a calculated maneuver, consistently yields dividends, shielding the state from accountability. History, as the adage warns, condemns the ignorant to its repetition. From its inception, the Pakistani state — most notably its military, which has systematically prevented any elected prime minister from completing a full term — has fixated on the territorial conquest of Kashmir, purely on religious grounds. In moments of domestic turmoil — be it political missteps, economic collapse, or ideological discord — the military apparatus invariably redirects the national gaze toward Kashmir, conjuring the specter of an existential Indian threat. This manufactured bogeyman serves the singular purpose of subduing the Pakistani populace, ensuring their acquiescence to the military's agenda. More than 40,000 people, civilian and security forces have lost their lives in India due to terrorism. As a respected and responsible member of the comity of nations, India has never sought a violent solution to any conflict. But we cannot choose to not act when terrorists unleash such horror. We do not stand alone today when we say there is zero tolerance for terrorism. After the terror attack, India undertook measured and non-escalatory strikes against these terror apparatuses operating in Pakistan. In response the Pakistan Army, in its usual war mongering manner, has sought to escalate the situation by carrying out strikes against Indian civilian and military infrastructure. It has chosen to stand with the terrorists. India does not seek an escalation. Our war is against terrorism. It is not against the people of Pakistan. Vinay Kwatra is India's ambassador to the U.S. and its former foreign secretary.

India and Pakistan are on the brink of all-out war. Here's what we know
India and Pakistan are on the brink of all-out war. Here's what we know

Egypt Independent

time07-05-2025

  • Politics
  • Egypt Independent

India and Pakistan are on the brink of all-out war. Here's what we know

Islamabad, Pakistan / New Delhi, India CNN — India launched military strikes on Pakistan on Wednesday and Pakistan claimed it shot down five Indian Air Force jets, in an escalation that has pushed the two nations to the brink of war. The escalation puts India and Pakistan, two neighbors with a long history of conflict, in dangerous territory, with Islamabad vowing to retaliate against India's strikes and the international community calling for restraint. New Delhi said the strikes are in response to the massacre of 26 people – mostly Indian tourists – who died in April when gunmen stormed a scenic mountain spot in the India-administered part of Kashmir, a disputed border region. India has blamed Pakistan for the attack, which Islamabad denies. Here's what we know so far. What happened with India's strikes? India launched 'Operation Sindoor' in the early hours of Wednesday morning local time (Tuesday night ET) in both Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Indian officials said nine sites were targeted, but claimed no Pakistani civilian, economic or military sites were struck. They said the 25-minute operation targeted 'terrorist infrastructure' belonging to two militant groups – Lashkar-e-Tayyiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. The name 'Sindoor' appears to be a reference to the red vermilion, or powder, many Hindu women wear on their foreheads after marriage. The April tourist massacre – which singled out men as victims – left several Indian women widowed. But Pakistan is painting a different picture of the strikes – saying civilians were killed and mosques were hit. CNN has yet to verify those claims. A Pakistani military spokesperson said six locations were hit with 24 strikes. Some of those strikes hit the densely populated province of Punjab, Pakistan's military said, and were the deepest India has struck inside Pakistan since 1971, when the two countries fought one of their four wars. How did Pakistan respond? Pakistani security sources claimed they had shot down five Indian Air Force jets and one drone during India's attack. They did not say exactly where, or how, the jets were downed – but said three Rafale jets were among those planes. India's Rafale fighter jets are prized military assets that it bought from France only a few years ago. India has not confirmed any planes were lost. CNN has not been able to verify the claim and has reached out to India's government and military for comment. An eyewitness and local government official said an unidentified aircraft crashed in the village of Wuyan in Indian-administered Kashmir. Photos published by the AFP news agency showed aircraft wreckage lying in a field next to a red-brick building. It was not immediately clear from the photos who the aircraft belonged to. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Wednesday the country 'has every right' to respond, calling India's actions an 'act of war.' The wreckage of an aircraft is seen in Wuyan, a village in Indian-administered Kashmir, on May 7, 2025. Tausee Mustafa/AFP/Getty Images How many casualties are there? At least 26 civilians were killed and 46 injured by India's strikes, a Pakistan military spokesperson said, according to the news agency Reuters. Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, a spokesperson for Pakistan's military, said those killed include teenagers and children – the youngest of whom was three years old. Seven civilians in Indian-administered Kashmir were also killed by shelling by Pakistani troops from across the border, Reuters reported, citing police there. What else is happening on the ground? On Wednesday, the two sides also exchanged shelling and gunfire across the Line of Control (LOC), the de facto border that divides Kashmir. Authorities in Indian-administered Kashmir have ordered citizens to evacuate from areas deemed dangerous, saying accommodation, food and medicine will be provided. The strikes have disrupted flights, with Pakistan closing parts of its airspace. Multiple major international airlines are avoiding flying over Pakistan, while several Indian airlines have reported disrupted flights and closed airports in the country's north. Some context: There have been regular exchanges of gunfire along the Line of Control in the weeks following the Pahalgam massacre. Volunteers load a body into an ambulance after recovering it from a mosque damaged by an Indian missile strike near Muzaffarabad, in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, on May 7, 2025. MD Mughal/AP What prompted all of this? What is Kashmir? Muslim-majority Kashmir has been a flashpoint in India-Pakistan relations since both countries gained their independence from Britain in 1947. The two nations to emerge from the bloody partition of British India – Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan – both claim Kashmir in full and, months after becoming independent, fought their first of three wars over the territory. The divided region is now one of the most militarized places in the world. India has long accused Pakistan of harboring militant groups there that conduct attacks across the border, something Islamabad has long denied. The massacre in the tourist hotspot of Pahalgam in April sparked widespread anger in India, putting heavy pressure on the Hindu-nationalist government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India immediately blamed Islamabad, sparking tit-for-tat retaliatory measures in which both countries downgraded ties, canceled visas for each other's citizens, and saw India pull out of a key water-sharing treaty. Indian soldiers stand guard at Pampore, in Indian-administered Kashmir, on May 7, 2025. Dar Yasin/AP What could come next? The three previous wars over Kashmir have each been bloody; the last one in 1999 killed more than a thousand Pakistani troops, by the most conservative estimates. In the decades since, militant groups have fought Indian security forces, with violence killing tens of thousands. The two countries have clashed multiple times, most recently in 2019 when India conducted airstrikes in Pakistan after it blamed Islamabad for a suicide car bomb attack in the region. But those recent clashes did not explode into all-out war. Both sides are aware of the risks; since 1999, the two countries have worked to strengthen their militaries, including arming themselves with nuclear weapons. How is the world reacting? The strikes have raised global alarm and pleas for the two nations to prevent further escalation. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres voiced 'deep concern' over India's strikes, warning that the world 'cannot afford a military confrontation' between the two nations. The United States – which had urged restraint from both countries last week – said it was 'closely monitoring developments,' according to a State Department spokesperson. 'We are aware of the reports, however we have no assessment to offer at this time,' the spokesperson said Tuesday. 'This remains an evolving situation, and we are closely monitoring developments.' The United Arab Emirates, China and Japan have also called for both sides to de-escalate. A senior Indian government official told CNN that New Delhi had briefed its international counterparts on the steps it had taken – including the US, UAE, United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Pakistan summons Indian envoy to protest strikes
Pakistan summons Indian envoy to protest strikes

Saudi Gazette

time07-05-2025

  • Politics
  • Saudi Gazette

Pakistan summons Indian envoy to protest strikes

ISLAMABAD — Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it summoned the Indian chargé d'affaires in Islamabad – the head of India's diplomatic mission in the country – to formally protest India's strikes in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir on Wednesday. 'It was conveyed that India's blatant act of aggression constitutes a clear violation of Pakistan's sovereignty. Such actions are in contravention of the UN Charter, international law, and established norms governing inter-state relations,' the ministry said. 'Pakistan firmly rejected India's baseless justifications for its hostile conduct.' It called the strikes 'unprovoked,' saying they had killed several civilians including women and children, and warned that India's military action posed a 'serious threat' to peace in the region. The leader of India's diplomatic mission in Pakistan used to be the high commissioner – but clashes in 2019 between the two countries prompted them to downgrade diplomatic ties with each other and remove the high commissioner, leaving the chargé d'affaires in place instead.. Overnight shelling by the Pakistani military has killed at least eight people on the Indian side of the Line of Control in Kashmir, a senior Indian defense source told and Pakistan have had near daily exchanges of fire across the Line of Control since the April 22 tourist massacre that sent relations between the two sides military has previously confirmed it shelled Indian positions in Indian-administered Kashmir overnight in response to India's airstrikes on its territory. India accused the Pakistanis of unprovoked firing over the Line of Control, the de facto border that divides post has been updated with the latest on the said its military strikes on Pakistan targeted Lashkar-e-Tayyiba 'terrorist infrastructure' sites after Pakistan failed to act against the groups based in its territory behind a massacre of tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir last operation – dubbed 'Operation Sindoor' – lasted for 25 minutes from 1.05 a.m.-1.30 a.m. local time, Col. Sofiya Qureshi said in a press conference on of the three Indian officials who spoke at the briefing responded to a claim from Pakistan that it had shot down five Indian Air Force jets during India's attack. CNN has been unable to verify the briefing started with a video montage of the aftermath of attacks on India through the years that New Delhi has blamed on its neighbor Pakistan – and which Pakistan has long officials also showed footage of what they said were strikes on the targets in officials showed a map marking locations of what they said were several Lashkar-e-Tayyiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed training camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and inside Pakistan's Punjab foreign secretary Vikram Misri again blamed Pakistan for the April attack on civilians in Indian-administered Kashmir and accused Islamabad of supporting 'terrorism' in the disputed region.'Despite a fortnight having passed since the attacks, there has been no demonstrable step from Pakistan to take action against the terrorist infrastructure on its territory or on territory under its control.'The targets were selected based on 'intelligence,' Misri said no military installation was targeted in the operation and there had been no reports of civilian casualties in Pakistan. — CNN

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