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Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Populist Nawrocki's triumph threatens Poland's place at Europe's top table
The victory margin of the nationalist Karol Nawrocki in Poland's presidential elections may have been wafer-thin, but it marks a huge upheaval in the country's political landscape whose impact will be felt not just in Warsaw but across the EU. Backed by the previous ruling conservative Law & Justice (PiS) party and, openly, by Donald Trump's Maga movement, Nawrocki, a radical-right historian, defeated his liberal rival, the capital's mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, by 50.89% to 49.11%. His win means PiS retains a size-11 boot in the door of Poland's politics that could seriously destabilise the coalition government of the centre-right prime minister, Donald Tusk, and threaten the country's newfound place at Europe's top table. Tusk's election in 2023 brought to an end eight years of PiS rule and signalled Poland's return to the European fold. Over the past two years, the bloc's sixth-biggest economy has become a key player at the heart of mainstream European policymaking. Nawrocki's victory hands him a presidential veto that will make it difficult for Tusk's government to pass promised legislation rolling back the judicial and other changes implemented by PiS that led to repeated clashes with Brussels. default But it heralds more than just a delicate period of cohabitation between a pro-EU prime minister and a nationalist, Eurosceptic president. The 42-year-old, who has never held elected office, will seek to actively undermine Tusk wherever he can. Poland's outgoing PiS-aligned president, Andrzej Duda, deployed his veto, but sparingly. Nawrocki will do so more aggressively and systematically, analysts say, aiming to weaken the prime minister before 2027 parliamentary elections. PiS and its allies will portray Sunday's presidential vote as a full-scale rejection of Tusk's progressive and reformist agenda – and may even be tempted to try to bring down his already fractured coalition government before the end of its term. Snap elections could be triggered, for example, if Nawrocki, whose campaign focused on conservative Catholic values, attacks on EU migration and climate policy and opposition to Ukraine's accession to the bloc, decides to stall the budget, which he could do by sending it to the PiS-dominated constitutional tribunal. Polls suggest that PiS and the far-right, libertarian Confederation party of Sławomir Mentzen, who won nearly 15% of the vote in the first round of the presidential ballot, could control a majority of seats in parliament if they were to unite. So far, Mentzen has ruled that out, even refusing to endorse Nawrocki. But an analysis of Sunday's vote showed that almost 90% of Mentzen's first-round voters backed Nawrocki in the presidential runoff, and the potential affinity is clear. Amid growing speculation about the government's future, Tusk on Monday called for a confidence vote to force junior partners to commit to his coalition and head off any defections towards a possible PiS-Confederation majority. In Europe, while Tusk will continue to represent Poland at EU summits, he will inevitably be weakened by the challenge to his domestic legitimacy. Nawrocki, as commander-in-chief, may also seek to sway Poland's strongly pro-Ukraine stance. He has not shied away from tapping into Polish anti-Ukrainian sentiment over refugees, has criticised Kyiv and its EU and Nato accession plans, and his attendance at Nato summits could significantly complicate Europe's united pro-Ukraine front. Nawrocki will have somewhat less influence over other EU issues to which he is also opposed, such as deeper integration, joint borrowing and Europe's green deal, but the overall effect of his election on Poland's pro-EU ambitions will be chilling. The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said on Monday the EU would continue its 'very good cooperation' with Poland. But analysts note Polish conservatives cast Sunday's vote as a refendum on Tusk's whole pro-EU agenda. The nationalist's win is also a boost for Europe's populist EU-critical parties, led by Italy's prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, and to Viktor Orbán, Hungary's prime minister and the bloc's disrupter-in-chief, whose illiberal rule-of-law playbook PiS follows. Nawrocki's triumph was a 'fresh victory for patriots', Hungary's foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, said on his Facebook page on Monday. Nawrocki, who was invited to Washington by Trump and has shared a selfie with the US president, is opposed to Europe's recent security shift away from the US and favours closer transatlantic ties – another source of tension with Tusk, and Brussels.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Pro-Trump Nationalist Wins Poland's Presidential Election
(Bloomberg) -- A nationalist candidate backed by Donald Trump won Poland's presidential election, defeating the centrist mayor of Warsaw in a blow to the country's pro-European Union government. Billionaire Steve Cohen Wants NY to Expand Taxpayer-Backed Ferry Where the Wild Children's Museums Are The Economic Benefits of Paying Workers to Move Now With Colorful Blocks, Tirana's Pyramid Represents a Changing Albania NYC Congestion Toll Brings In $216 Million in First Four Months Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian and former boxer with no previous political experience, won 50.9%, while Rafal Trzaskowski took 49.1%, according to the results released by the electoral commission early on Monday. Nawrocki's surprise victory gives his party, the opposition Law & Justice, a powerful lever to stymie Prime Minister Donald Tusk's agenda and will complicate the premier's efforts to make Poland a key player in the EU. It's also a success of Trump's MAGA movement, which has sought and failed to tip elections in favor of nationalist or far-right candidates in countries including Germany, Romania, Canada and Australia. In months of campaigning, the 42-year-old nationalist managed to close what had been a formidable lead by Trzaskowski, a close ally of the prime minister. When the voting ended on Sunday, Nawrocki dismissed an early exit poll that showed his rival in the lead. 'We will wake up tomorrow with President Karol Nawrocki,' he told supporters. The outcome may undercut Polish assets, which have broadly rallied since Tusk's alliance won power two years ago. Warsaw's WIG20 stock index has jumped 61% in dollar terms since the last parliamentary election, while government bonds returned 28%, most among emerging markets after South Africa and Thailand. The zloty weakened about half a percent against the euro, while yields on Poland's international bonds ticked higher in early Monday trading. The narrow margin laid bare the polarization that's gripped the nation of 37 million, with issues such as migration, abortion and European integration sharply dividing voters. While Trzaskowski enjoyed strong backing in Warsaw and Poland's bigger cities, the rural vote and support in smaller towns appears to have been crucial in shaping the outcome. Poland is of the EU's fastest-growing economies and biggest spenders on defense and the setback for Tusk's government is likely to reverberate across the bloc which is under mounting pressure from Trump's tariffs and Russia's threat to the east. Nawrocki's campaign had won the backing of the White House, where he briefly met Trump in the Oval Office last month. On a visit to Poland last week, US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem held out the prospect of close ties with Trump as an incentive to vote for Nawrocki and dismissed Trzaskowski as 'an absolute train-wreck of a leader.' Tusk sought to position Poland as a key player in the EU, especially as it seeks to ramp up support for neighboring Ukraine, and to restore women's rights. But his program has been stalled by divisions within the coalition and the threat of vetoes by the current president Andrzej Duda, who also hails from the Law & Justice. Nawrocki told his supporters that his victory would amount to a check on Tusk's 'monopoly' on power, which 'takes away our great dreams and takes away our aspirations.' Tusk's surprise election victory in 2023 had offered the promise that Poland would be able to restore the rule of law and bolster independent media which has been weakened during the previous eight years of nationalist rule. The most immediate problem for Tusk may be how to reinforce the independence of judges following Law & Justice's rule which ended in 2023. His plans for judicial reform were crucial in persuading the EU to release tens of billions of funding but the final legislation has been held up by Duda, who threatened to bloc it. While political power is held by the prime minister, Poland's president can veto bills, nominate the central bank governor and lead the country's armed forces. The head of state is elected to a five-year term and is limited to two terms. The two candidates encapsulated the nation's divide: Trzaskowski, the polyglot son of a jazz musician, against Nawrocki, who heads the Institute for National Remembrance, which investigates Nazi and communist-era crimes. A political newcomer, Nawrocki spent the campaign touting his core Catholic values while railing against migration and the EU's attempts to fight climate change. His campaign was hit by allegations over a property purchase from an elderly seller and his participation in arranged fights between soccer hooligans. He also ruled out Ukraine's membership in NATO. The turnout was 71.6%, compared with a record 74.4% during parliamentary elections two years ago and 68.2% in the last presidential runoff in 2020. While Tusk is admired abroad as the man who took on populism and won, his popularity at home has been waning because of disillusionment over his ability to deliver. The ballot could expose further cracks in Tusk's fractious three-way coalition and energize Nawrocki's backers in the the Law & Justice party as well as surging far-right factions ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections. Tusk may call a vote of confidence in his government as early as this week, website reported Monday, citing ruling party official it didn't name. --With assistance from Piotr Bujnicki, Deana Kjuka, Wojciech Moskwa, Konrad Krasuski and Natalia Ojewska. (Updates with official results, details starting in the second paragraph.) YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Mark Zuckerberg Loves MAGA Now. Will MAGA Ever Love Him Back? Will Small Business Owners Knock Down Trump's Mighty Tariffs? Trump Considers Deporting Migrants to Rwanda After the UK Decides Not To ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Pro-Trump Nationalist Wins Poland's Presidential Election
(Bloomberg) -- A nationalist candidate backed by Donald Trump won Poland's presidential election, defeating the centrist mayor of Warsaw in a blow to the country's pro-European Union government. Billionaire Steve Cohen Wants NY to Expand Taxpayer-Backed Ferry Where the Wild Children's Museums Are The Economic Benefits of Paying Workers to Move Now With Colorful Blocks, Tirana's Pyramid Represents a Changing Albania NYC Congestion Toll Brings In $216 Million in First Four Months Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian and former boxer with no previous political experience, won 50.9%, while Rafal Trzaskowski took 49.1%, according to the results released by the electoral commission early on Monday. Nawrocki's surprise victory gives his party, the opposition Law & Justice, a powerful lever to stymie Prime Minister Donald Tusk's agenda and will complicate the premier's efforts to make Poland a key player in the EU. It's also a success of Trump's MAGA movement, which has sought and failed to tip elections in favor of nationalist or far-right candidates in countries including Germany, Romania, Canada and Australia. In months of campaigning, the 42-year-old nationalist managed to close what had been a formidable lead by Trzaskowski, a close ally of the prime minister. When the voting ended on Sunday, Nawrocki dismissed an early exit poll that showed his rival in the lead. 'We will wake up tomorrow with President Karol Nawrocki,' he told supporters. The outcome may undercut Polish assets, which have broadly rallied since Tusk's alliance won power two years ago. Warsaw's WIG20 stock index has jumped 61% in dollar terms since the last parliamentary election, while government bonds returned 28%, most among emerging markets after South Africa and Thailand. The zloty weakened about half a percent against the euro, while yields on Poland's international bonds ticked higher in early Monday trading. The narrow margin laid bare the polarization that's gripped the nation of 37 million, with issues such as migration, abortion and European integration sharply dividing voters. While Trzaskowski enjoyed strong backing in Warsaw and Poland's bigger cities, the rural vote and support in smaller towns appears to have been crucial in shaping the outcome. Poland is of the EU's fastest-growing economies and biggest spenders on defense and the setback for Tusk's government is likely to reverberate across the bloc which is under mounting pressure from Trump's tariffs and Russia's threat to the east. Nawrocki's campaign had won the backing of the White House, where he briefly met Trump in the Oval Office last month. On a visit to Poland last week, US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem held out the prospect of close ties with Trump as an incentive to vote for Nawrocki and dismissed Trzaskowski as 'an absolute train-wreck of a leader.' Tusk sought to position Poland as a key player in the EU, especially as it seeks to ramp up support for neighboring Ukraine, and to restore women's rights. But his program has been stalled by divisions within the coalition and the threat of vetoes by the current president Andrzej Duda, who also hails from the Law & Justice. Nawrocki told his supporters that his victory would amount to a check on Tusk's 'monopoly' on power, which 'takes away our great dreams and takes away our aspirations.' Tusk's surprises election victory in 2023 had offered the promise that Poland would be able to restore the rule of law and bolster independent media which has been weakened during the previous eight years of nationalist rule. The most immediate problem for Tusk may be how to reinforce the independence of judges following Law & Justice's rule which ended in 2023. His plans for judicial reform were crucial in persuading the EU to release tens of billions of funding but the final legislation has been held up by Duda, who threatened to bloc the legislation. While political power is held by the prime minister, Poland's president can veto bills, nominates the central bank governor and leads the country's armed forces. The head of state is elected to a five-year term and is limited to two terms. The two candidates encapsulated the nation's divide: Trzaskowski, the polyglot son of a jazz musician, against Nawrocki, who heads the Institute for National Remembrance, which investigates Nazi and communist-era crimes. A political newcomer, Nawrocki spent the campaign touting his core Catholic values while railing against migration and the EU's attempts to fight climate change. His campaign was hit by allegations over a property purchase from an elderly seller and his participation in arranged fights between soccer hooligans. He also ruled out Ukraine's membership in NATO. The turnout was 71.6%, compared with a record 74.4% during parliamentary elections two years ago and 68.2% in the last presidential runoff in 2020. While Tusk is admired abroad as the man who took on populism and won, his popularity at home has been waning because of disillusionment over his ability to deliver. The ballot could expose further cracks in Tusk's fractious three way coalition and energize Nawrocki's backers in the the Law & Justice party as well as surging far-right factions ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections. Tusk may call a vote of confidence in his government as early as this week, website reported Monday, citing ruling party official it didn't name. --With assistance from Piotr Bujnicki, Deana Kjuka, Wojciech Moskwa, Konrad Krasuski and Natalia Ojewska. (Updates with official results, details starting in the second paragraph.) YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Mark Zuckerberg Loves MAGA Now. Will MAGA Ever Love Him Back? Will Small Business Owners Knock Down Trump's Mighty Tariffs? Trump Considers Deporting Migrants to Rwanda After the UK Decides Not To ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
26-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Tusk Plan to Change Poland Turns on Knife-Edge Election Race
(Bloomberg) -- Poland's two presidential candidates are heading into the final week of a neck-and-neck election campaign that risks leaving Prime Minister Donald Tusk boxed in by a nationalist rival. NY Private School Pleads for Donors to Stay Open After Declaring Bankruptcy UAE's AI University Aims to Become Stanford of the Gulf NYC's War on Trash Gets a Glam Squad Pacific Coast Highway to Reopen Near Malibu After January Fires Political polarization in eastern Europe's biggest economy was on display Sunday as tens of thousands turned out in Warsaw for rallies by Rafal Trzaskowski, the capital's mayor and a Tusk ally, and Karol Nawrocki of the opposition Law and Justice party. Despite ousting Nawrocki's allies in 2023, Tusk has struggled to make progress since then, held back from some of his more ambitious reforms plans by the threat of a presidential veto from Andrzej Duda, another Law & Justice backer. 'I'm sorry, yes, you all expected us to do more, faster and be stronger,' Tusk said at a march in support of Trzaskowski. 'So I ask you: give us the strength, so that we can change Poland as we promised.' Nawrocki has portrayed himself as a check on Tusk's government. 'One political group will not govern Poland!' he told his rally on Sunday. Polish presidents have the power to veto legislation, which means they can potentially clash with the government. The president also signs off on ambassadorial appointments, represents Poland at North Atlantic Treaty Organization summits and nominates the central bank governor. The two contenders have starkly different visions for Poland's place in the world. Trzaskowski, the polyglot son of a prominent jazz musician, is a pro-European liberal from Warsaw who studied at Oxford and in Paris. He has made his years at the helm of Poland's growing capital a cornerstone of his campaign and is known for progressive views on LGBTQ rights and advocacy for repealing Poland's abortion law. Nawrocki, a former boxer who heads an institution responsible for investigating Nazi and communist-era crimes, has sought to distance himself from the previous Law & Justice administration by criticizing some of its pandemic-era restrictions. He briefly met President Donald Trump at the White House in May. Whoever wins the June 1 vote will succeed 10-year incumbent Duda, who built friendly ties to Trump. Some recent polls suggest Nawrocki has a slight edge in the race, though his advantage remains within the margin of error. In the final days of campaign, he faces scrutiny over his past involvement in organized fights between soccer hooligans. Trzaskowski led Nawrocki 45.7% to 44.9% in an IBRiS opinion poll released by Polskie Radio 24 on Monday. A separate survey from OGB pollster showed Nawrocki ahead 48% to 45.5% for the mayor of Warsaw, with 6.5% undecided. The opposition candidate is also tipped to win, according to the latest odds on Poland's leading betting sites. Hometown Advantage Trzaskowski sought to leverage his hometown advantage with the Sunday rally after a narrow first-round victory left him on the defensive, with about a fifth of the electorate opting for far-right forces. Nawrocki is counting on those voters to be attracted to his critical stances toward the EU and migration. The mayor of Warsaw met far-right leader Slawomir Mentzen, who came third in the first round, in a YouTube debate on Saturday and later met him for a beer together with Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, with video of their meeting going viral across social media. Tusk on Sunday sought to rally support for Trzaskowski by stepping up rhetoric against migration. The Warsaw mayor dubbed Sunday's rally the 'Great March of Patriots,' a nod to the importance of the nationalist electorate. The prime minister said on Monday there won't be any early parliamentary elections regardless of the result of the presidential vote. Trzaskowski has focused on Nawrocki's lack of foreign policy experience, and blamed him for the failures of the previous administration during an election debate on Friday. His march drew about 140,000 people and Nawrocki's about 50,000, the PAP newswire reported, citing preliminary official estimates. Trzaskowski and Tusk were joined at Sunday's rally by newly elected Romanian President Nicusor Dan, who defeated a far-right candidate who embraces Trump's brand of politics. 'The values we believe in are democracy, the rule of law, freedom of speech,' Dan told the cheering crowd. 'I will work closely with President Rafal Trzaskowski and Prime Minister Donald Tusk to ensure a strong Poland and a strong European Union.' --With assistance from Natalia Ojewska. (Updates with latest opinion polls in 12th paragraph, details in 14th and 16th.) Why Apple Still Hasn't Cracked AI How Coach Handbags Became a Gen Z Status Symbol AI Is Helping Executives Tackle the Dreaded Post-Vacation Inbox Inside the First Stargate AI Data Center Anthropic Is Trying to Win the AI Race Without Losing Its Soul ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Bloomberg
15-05-2025
- Politics
- Bloomberg
Why Poland's Election Is a Barometer for Europe's Populist Wave
Poland's presidential election will determine whether the country can restore the rule of law and remain a reliable partner in the European Union after nearly a decade of divisive right-wing populist rule. The nationalist party that outgoing President Andrzej Duda hails from, Law & Justice, governed for eight years until Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his pro-EU coalition unexpectedly swept into power toward the end of 2023. Now, Tusk is hoping a centrist ally will take residence in the presidential palace and support his policy agenda. Efforts to rebuild democratic standards have repeatedly been thwarted by Duda.
