29-05-2025
2025 Fantasy Football: Running backs boosted by elite offensive lines
There are a few nerdy ways to measure the run-blocking ability of an offensive line.
The spreadsheet warrior can pore over stats like rush yards before contact, which shows how much room an offensive line is creating for the runners behind it. Teams that generate the most rush yards before first contact often end up as elite rushing units. It's no accident that the Lions, Eagles, and Ravens led the NFL last season in this category.
We can also take a look at rushing success rate, or a running play that gains at least 40 percent of yards required on first down, 60 percent of the needed yards on second down, and 100 percent of the required yards on later downs. Then there's stuff rate, measuring the percentage of rushes that a team converts for a touchdown or first down with three or fewer yards to go.
Having shifty, tough rushers sometimes helps an offensive line look better than it is. That's why we're ignoring tackle breaking and yards after contact data here. Below are four surprisingly good run-blocking offensive lines headed into 2025, and the backs that could benefit.
Lawrence Jackson Jr.,
Elite Run-Blocking Offensive Lines
2024 yards before contact per rush: 2.34 (4th)
2024 rushing stuff rate: 46 percent (fifth worst)
2024 rush EPA: -0.071 (16th best)
2024 rushing success rate: 38.8 percent (20th)
The Colts, as we talked about on a recent Rotoworld Football Show, profile as a boom-bust rushing unit capable of reeling off some big plays while occasionally struggling to get anything going on the ground (see their miserable stuff rate). Improved quarterback play from Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones could be a key in opening up the run game this season, though assuming better play from both two is a dangerous little game.
Jonathan Taylor is in a quietly good rushing environment if the Colts can maintain some run-blocking continuity from 2024. PFF graded the Colts as last season's fourth-best run blocking unit, ahead of the Eagles. Taylor also has the benefit of being the Colts' primary rushing weapon where it counts the most: He saw 74 percent of the team's red zone rushing attempts in 2024, the third highest rate among all running backs.
The Colts in the 2025 draft selected massive, hyper-athletic Iowa State tackle Jalen Travis with the No.127 pick after losing offensive linemen Ryan Kelly and Will Fries in free agency. The Indy offensive line could be in flux to start training camp but has the pieces to repeat their 2024 success. It could be quite the development for a player like rookie RB DJ Giddens if Taylor gets dinged up and misses time in 2025.
2024 yards before contact per rush: 2.32 (5th)
2024 rushing stuff rate: 40 percent (seventh best)
2024 rush EPA: -0.023 (8th best)
2024 rushing success rate: 42.6 percent (10th)
Combine an offensive line that can win in the trenches with a defense that showed great improvement over the final month and a half of the 2024 regular season and you have a good little recipe for James Conner rushing volume in 2025.
Last season marked the second straight year in which the Cardinals offensive line ranked near the top of the league in yards created before contact. It would hardly be surprising if they kept it up in 2025.
Arizona last season had a 48 percent pass rate while leading, one of the lowest rates in the NFL. If they can generate enough positive game script, it should mean lots of opportunity for Conner -- and perhaps Trey Benson, if he shows improvement -- in 2025. It's more than a little notable that Conner last season dominated high value rushes in the Arizona offense. He saw 67 percent of the team's red zone carries, the fourth highest rate among all running backs.
I mentioned the Cardinals this offseason as an offense that's bound to see some positive touchdown regression in 2025 after a rather unlucky 2024.
2024 yards before contact per rush: 2.03 (8th)
2024 rushing stuff rate: 39 percent (third best)
2024 rush EPA: -0.015 (7th best)
2024 rushing success rate: 47.3 percent (1st)
Atlanta's rushing metrics were even better than this when you isolate the final two months of the regular season. Put simply: The Falcons steamrolled teams on the ground with an offensive line graded by Pro Football Focus as the league's best run-blocking unit.
The Falcons didn't just bully poor defensive lines. Bijan Robinson in 2024 had plenty of room to run against solid rush defenses too. Robinson would obviously be the primary beneficiary of an Atlanta line that should again be top notch in 2025. My longtime favorite RB2, Tyler Allgeier, would benefit bigly if Robinson were to miss any time in 2025. Allgeier remains a sensible bench stash for fantasy purposes.
2024 yards before contact per rush: 2.09 (6th)
2024 rushing stuff rate: 39 percent (fifth best)
2024 rush EPA: 0.012 (6th)
2024 rushing success rate: 44.4 percent (6th)
Tampa's run-blocking improved as the 2024 season wore on. By the end, they were near the top of the league in nearly every major run-blocking category. It's hardly surprising that Bucky Irving, a talented, tough runner, could excel behind such a superb offensive line. By season's end, only five teams had more expected points contributed by their rushing offense.
The Bucs increasingly leaned on their running attack in the second half of last season. After passing at a 59 percent rate in neutral game script (when the game is within one score) from Week 1-8, Tampa dropped to a 52 percent neutral pass rate over the season's final nine weeks. That was in line with run-first teams like the Steelers and Panthers. It made sense after losing Chris Godwin to a season-ending injury and putting trust in Irving as the engine of the offense.
The Bucs' run-blocking prowess could be a reason to target Rachaad White later in drafts in case Irving misses time this season. This might not translate for White, a fine pass catcher but one of the most inefficient rushers in recent memory.
