Latest news with #Lehman
Yomiuri Shimbun
01-08-2025
- Business
- Yomiuri Shimbun
Glut of Capital Behind Changes in Financial Markets
The trends in financial markets appear to have changed significantly over the past several years. The biggest change has been that external shocks are causing smaller price drops. Since 1987, the U.S. stock market has crashed nearly once every 10 years. The Black Monday collapse, the Asian financial crisis and the Lehman shock all fit more or less into that 10-year cycle. However, this trend seems to have subsided considerably since 2017. One theory has it that the 2007-08 shock was so great that the markets have not fully recovered even 10 years later, leaving no room for them to slump any further. In reality, there have been structural changes beyond the shock. Needless to say, as markets have grown in size, price drops have gotten larger in terms of absolute value. But, when looking at the percentage change, price drops have shrunk in size. Moreover, after a drop, prices now tend to recover relatively quickly to previous levels, so that slumps do not go on for months. If this was the result of the financial system improving its resilience, that would be fine. But, in my view, there seems to be another factor at work. I think the biggest reason why price drops have shrunk is a 'glut of capital' that can be seen across the financial markets. The most significant source of the funds is increased savings. It is known that once income goes up, allowing individuals to save, growth in savings outpaces that of income. In the recent three decades or so, savings have risen sharply worldwide. Let's take a look at the nominal value of the global gross domestic product, so that we can estimate the growth in income around the world. The nominal GDP for the world rose nearly fivefold from $22 trillion in 1990 to $110 trillion in 2024. On the other hand, according to the United Nations, the global population only increased 60% over the same period, from 5.2 billion to 8.2 billion. When the GDP figures are divided by population, you find that GDP per capita nearly tripled, shooting from $4,200 to $13,300. To calculate how much savings grew, you first need to exclude the tranche of the population with zero savings. Besides looking at the average, you will also want to reference the median and the mode, the latter being the value that appears most frequently in a data set. My impression is that ultra-high-income earners have seen their incomes grow significantly in many countries. It seems this has caused the average income level to rise on a global basis. In any case, the supply of capital in the form of savings has significantly increased. This supply has not been matched by demand, resulting in a 'glut of capital.' Looking only at the supply side does not tell the real story. Why has demand for capital been waning? Sluggish demand for capital Capital needs can be generally divided into short-term needs of a year or less and longer-term needs. Of these two, demand for long-term funds has been particularly sluggish. Long-term funds are primarily provided for infrastructure development, environmental conservation and the installation of large-scale production facilities over long periods of five, 10 or 20 years. The main reason for slow demand for long-term funds is that infrastructure development in developed countries has finished for now, leading to a slowdown in orders for new projects. On the other hand, despite strong demand for new projects in developing countries, fewer and fewer projects have been eligible for financing as borrowers have grown less creditworthy. Predictability has also been reduced by the inability to reach a consensus on environmental conservation programs and the lack of clarity on goals for environmental investment. These issues have become pronounced over the past 10 or so years. The situation has been exacerbated by tensions between the United States and China and, more recently, U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff diplomacy. Moreover, international trade has been contracting due largely to tariff increases, a shift to trading with neighboring countries and a surge in maritime transport costs caused by piracy, among other factors. As a result, demand for long-term funds has shrunk and surplus funds have moved to short-term investments. Short-term funds would normally be directed to real estate and stocks, but in the United States, memories of the real estate bubble collapse in the 2000s are still causing a lot of short-term funds to be directed toward the stock market rather than real estate. For many years, the bond and stock markets in the United States had an inverse relationship. That means that funds would move between the two markets, depending on a comparison of interest from the bond market and dividends from the stock market. The mechanism worked like this: When bond rates rose, people would buy U.S. Treasurys, which are considered risk-free, resulting in a drop in stock prices. Moving in tandem However, of late, people have been buying both bonds and stocks, leading both markets to move in the same direction. The reason that capital is not scrambling between the two markets as it did before is that there are more funds going to both markets. In many countries, a political backlash against unequal income distribution is gathering steam. But ironically, the income gap has widened even further, driven by the influx of funds. Many companies have been buying back their own stock by using internal reserves of excess cash. Share buybacks — which reduce the number of shares in circulation on the market and boost share prices — may make it easier to procure funds. However, companies with no forward-looking ideas for investment have little need for funds in the first place, and they may end up on the path to a diminished equilibrium. The demand for long-term funds is, in fact, enormous. For example, if you add up the money required to maintain and repair existing infrastructure in developed countries, you will come up with a considerable sum. Roads and airport runways are suitable for investment using public expenditure based on tax revenue. But for renewal of other infrastructure projects such as railways, airport terminals, water supply and sewage systems, and power plants, there is an enormous demand for funds from the private sector. Since there are no enthusiastic proponents of such maintenance, we often tend to forget the pressing need to discuss whether we should prioritize securing funds for maintenance and repairs even if that means restricting new infrastructure investments. Now, I would like to touch on something a little different from the usual capital flows. That is the fact that as global markets become increasingly fragmented, the supply of funds that have functioned as a kind of insurance for maintaining the entire system is shrinking. In the past, some countries have struggled due to unsound economic management, but when a risk of sovereign bankruptcy arose, emergency funds were provided from the outside as what looked like insurance payouts. However, countries are increasingly only willing to help those in distress who are 'like-minded.' If this is not the case, no support will be extended even if the debtor is not an 'enemy nation.' In many cases, economic collapse is the country's own fault. That said, if one imprudently throws a rotten orange into a box of oranges, it may cause the rest of the citrus to rot as well. And a failing country may well be a neighbor to 'like-minded' countries. Regardless of the politics of the country facing bankruptcy, if it can carry out the appropriate measures for economic restructuring, there should be a framework that can quickly provide the nation with support. Hiroshi Watanabe Watanabe is a visiting professor with the Faculty of Business Administration at Tokyo Seitoku University. Previously, he was vice finance minister for international affairs and a professor at Hitotsubashi University. He also served as governor and chief executive officer of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, and president of the Tokyo-based Institute for International Monetary original article in Japanese appeared in the July 27 issue of The Yomiuri Shimbun.
Yahoo
23-07-2025
- Entertainment
- Yahoo
‘Dune' VFX House DNEG's Immersive Experiences Unit Names NBCU's Jeff Lehman Exec Producer (Exclusive)
DNEG, the London-headquartered VFX and animation house that has won Oscars for the likes of Dune and Tenet and has also worked on The Last of Us and season 4 of Stranger Things, has named Jeff Lehman executive producer for its Immersive Experiences division, DNEG IXP. He joins the company from NBCUniversal, where he served as assistant director, media production for Universal Creative. 'Lehman brings over 20 years of experience to his new role at DNEG IXP, including a decade leading large-scale global projects for Universal Destinations & Experiences, where he oversaw media creation from blue sky development to facility installation across Universal's global parks,' the company said. 'Key projects include Harry Potter and the Battle at the Ministry, Transformers: The Ride 3D, Despicable Me: Minion Mayhem, Hagrid's Magical Creatures Motorbike Adventure, Jurassic World: The Ride, and many others.' In his new role at DNEG, Lehman will get to 'further develop DNEG IXP's digital production services offering' and 'guide the company's clients and partners through the creative process for experiential entertainment with a story-first focus, managing the full lifecycle of projects from concept through on-set direction, visual effects and post-production, and on-site integration,' the company said. More from The Hollywood Reporter Ava Phillippe, Sam Morelos Cast in Tommy Dorfman's 'Laura Dean Keeps Breaking Up With Me' (Exclusive) Charli XCX Starrer '100 Nights of Hero' to Close Venice Critics' Week 'In the End, Everything Will Be Okay' With 'Money Heist' Star Esther Acebo Boarded by Citizen Skull (Exclusive) DNEG IXP utilizes 'DNEG's Academy Award-winning visual effects capabilities and the AI-driven technologies developed by fellow Prime Focus Group company Brahma, to deliver breakthrough creative experiences across theme park experiences, location-based entertainment, advertising, gaming, music, and more,' according to the firm. 'We're breaking the boundaries of traditional screens and bringing storytelling into the physical world,' said Lehman. 'With DNEG's legacy of award-winning artistry and technological innovation, this is a rare opportunity to redefine how audiences experience narrative – blending the cinematic with the tangible to create fully immersive, location-based worlds. It's an exciting new frontier in experiential entertainment.' Added DNEG president of VFX Rohan Desai: 'We have worked closely with Jeff over a number of years on some truly outstanding experiential attractions for Universal's global theme park portfolio, and I have always admired his knowledge, clear creative direction, and drive. As a filmmaker himself, Jeff brings a unique perspective to the creation of narrative-driven media for experiential attractions, which complements his technical expertise and extensive hands-on experience.' Best of The Hollywood Reporter How the Warner Brothers Got Their Film Business Started Meet the World Builders: Hollywood's Top Physical Production Executives of 2023 Men in Blazers, Hollywood's Favorite Soccer Podcast, Aims for a Global Empire Solve the daily Crossword
USA Today
18-07-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Former British Open champ shares funny 18th-hole story: 'Now you're on your own'
The winner of this week's Open Championship at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland obviously will make memories of a lifetime. Tom Lehman, winner of the 1996 Open at Royal Lytham and St. Annes in England, told a funny story this week of his best recollection of his closing round, all thanks to a big Bobby who led the way and knew a thing or two about crowd control. Lehman, 66, was at Cragun's Resort in his native Minnesota to meet with media and members to discuss the recent reopening of two golf courses that he redesigned, the Dutch 27 and the Lehman 18. The former World No. 1 reimagined the existing courses at the resort on Gull Lake in Brainerd. Leisure Hotels and Resorts acquired the property this year from the Cragun family and plans to spend more than $50 million to update the expansive resort. Lehman was asked if he recalls anything particular from his Open win when his head hits the pillow each night. The American – who went on to captain the U.S. Ryder Cup team in 2006 – held off Ernie Els, Mark McCumber and Nick Faldo among others for a two-shot victory. We'll let Lehman take the mic from here: That was a long time ago, '96. You know, there's always great memories, obviously. People ask me, what's your most vivid memory of when you won the Open Championship? And I think they're expecting to hear about a shot or, you know, walking up to the 18th green, whatever. And, well, yes, walking up to the 18th green is the most vivid memory, but for a different reason. I had this policeman who was my bodyguard for the week. I was ranked No. 2 in the world. So when I got there, they assigned me a big, tall dude, Kevin. Kevin Boyles. And so everywhere I went the whole week, he was leading the way. To the range, to the parking lot, you know. He walked inside the ropes. And if I wanted to go to the restroom out there, he would walk me there. I mean, just everywhere I went, he led the way. And so we got to the 18th hole, and I hit my second shot on the green, and I had a lead, going to win the tournament. And the crowd all runs forward. And so there's, you know, 20 people deep. Kevin had to kind of fight through to get to the green. And he's got his arm back behind him, grabbing me from behind, and he swatting people away all the way with his other arm. And we finally get through the crowd, and there's the 18th green, and the people are all cheering and, you know, the scoreboard with my name on the top. And he puts his arm around me and says, 'Hey, Tom, we've been through a lot of s--- together, but now you're on your own.' Thanks for the memories, Kevin.
USA Today
06-07-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
John Deere Classic's charter to Genesis Scottish Open is full for the first time
SILVIS, Ill. — Next week's PGA Tour schedule features two events. The opposite-field ISCO Championship is in Louisville but most of the attention will be on the Genesis Scottish Open. There were 43 participants in this year's John Deere Classic who are on the entry list for the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. A good number of them will be on a charter flight arranged by the John Deere Classic itself. "We've been doing it since 2008," said John Deere Classic tournament director Andrew Lehman. In a Q&A with Golfweek, Lehman said it helps boost commitment from players to compete in the JDC. "For the first 10-plus years, we were taking guys to Open Championship, and now to be able to take guys over to Scotland who can get over there hassle-free — no risk of lost luggage or lost clubs — that's a big recruiting benefit for us." So this will be the 17th year for the charter, but for the first time ever, the plane will be full. "This is the first year where we will be at 100 percent capacity on that plane," Lehman said. "To have 35-plus players on that plane, along with their entourages, and get them over there, it's pretty awesome."
Business Times
01-07-2025
- Business
- Business Times
How to climb the wall of worry
BY ALL counts, stock markets around the world should not be anywhere as high as they are right now. After all, the war in Ukraine is still ongoing, even though US President Donald Trump said it would be over as soon as he entered the White House. Then we have the war between Israel and Iran. So much for Trump saying that wars never happen on his watch. And what about the 'big and beautiful' budget that would do nothing to reduce the ballooning US debt bubble. The Republican Party, which is supposed to be fiscally prudent, could allow a massive budget deficit to pass both the Upper and Lower Houses that would add to America's debt burden. We haven't even started on the tariffs yet. What we have had so far are a few handshakes and some flaky memoranda of understandings, but no concrete deals. The Financial Times journalist was spot on when he outed the president as Taco man, namely, Trump Always Chickens Out. It seems that Trump is not nearly as good a negotiator as he thinks he is. It would seem that the cult of Trumpism has been exposed as a sham. The president has been weighed, measured and found wanting. But stock markets continue to stand firm, if not march higher. They have done so not because of Trump but in spite of him. It is really quite bizarre. With all that is going on, share prices should be considerably lower. Are investors completely oblivious to all that is happening in the world? What's going on? To try to rationalise what is going on, we could cast our minds back to September 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed. At the time, Lehman was the fourth-largest investment bank in America. The thought of Lehman ever being in any kind of trouble was unthinkable. But then the impossible did happen – Lehman filed for bankruptcy after most of its clients defected. The impact on stock markets around the world was dramatic. Many stock market indices hit rock bottom. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Investors dumped their shares in their droves. Clearly, there was a lot for investors to fret about as a return of capital became more important than any return on capital. It was more important for investors to preserve what they had rather than to think about what they could have. But a point was reached when everyone who wanted to sell shares as a result of the market crash had already done so. There were just no more sellers to be had. But here's the interesting part. Some investors started to look beyond the bad news and started to notice that the market was cheap. The risk-to-reward trade-off shifted in favour of allocating money into risk assets. They became the instigators of the next bull market. Sceptics aplenty However, there was still no shortage of sceptics who would continue to voice their concerns. Something similar is happening now. Just browse any news channel. There are plenty of naysayers who are ready to point out that Armageddon could be just around the corner. But as share prices continue to rise, some of those market sceptics could become reassured. They start to realise that their fears had been overdone. Gradually, more and more doubters could start to believe that the worst is over, which is when the market slowly starts to scale what is called the wall of worry. It doesn't necessarily mean that all the world's woes have been eradicated. The problems are still there. But they have simply been factored into the price. What's more, there are still lots of cynics around – which is a good thing. It means that there are still many more potential converts who could push the market higher. It is only when there are no more doubters to convince that could signal that the wall of worry has been conquered. The price we pay With plenty to continue to worry the market, it is unlikely that the wall of worry will be conquered anytime soon. But for most income investors with a balanced portfolio, market gyrations should be almost an irrelevance. That is because volatility is the price that we have to pay for exceptional long-term returns. However, superior returns don't just happen by chance. Building a well-diversified portfolio could be a good place to start. It is also important to judiciously choose the appropriate assets to fit into the portfolio. These counters should be robust enough to function even under extreme conditions. They should ideally have a good track record of increasing their dividends, high returns on equity, and relatively high yields so that the income that they generate can be ploughed back into the portfolio. The writer is co-founder of The Smart Investor
