2 days ago
Could a new party led by Jeremy Corbyn reshape politics?
The MP for Islington North – ex-leader of the Labour Party and informal spokesperson for the 'Alliance' group of independents in the House of Commons – could be staging a bit of a comeback.
Jeremy Corbyn has been on ITV's Peston to drop the heaviest hint yet that he wants to start a new socialist party, and he's ready to lead it. Nobody expects him to be prime minister (albeit he's been underestimated before), but he could make an impact of sorts.
What has Corbyn been saying?
For some months, he's been talking about the need for an 'alternative' on the left of British politics, and the welfare bill fiasco offers an opportunity for him to explain Labour's current disarray. Last September, Corbyn addressed a meeting aimed at founding a new left-wing party, Collective; his faithful ally, the former Unite general secretary Len McCluskey, also attended along with various former 'independent' candidates.
Now, Corbyn says the Alliance group of five independent MPs 'have worked ... very well together over the past year in parliament' and offer 'an alternative of a left independent party of socialist views'. He says a 'grouping will come together, there will be an alternative' because there is 'a thirst for an alternative view … which is about a society that deals with poverty, inequality, and a foreign policy that's based on peace not war.'
Will Corbyn lead it?
He's obviously the most experienced and high-profile of the five MPs. On the other hand, he'll be about 80 by the time of the next election. He says: 'I'm here to work – I'm here to serve the people in the way I've always tried to do.'
Will it happen?
Certainly. Corbyn and the others who left the Labour fold know there's no way back for them, and that, even if there was, they are electorally better off standing as independent candidates or standing for the new party, whether it's called Independent, Alliance, Collective or something else.
Would it succeed?
Polling suggests such a grouping might capture about 10 per cent of the vote on average, taking votes principally away from Labour and thus hugely widening the gap between the government and Reform UK. More in Common found Labour would drop from 23 per cent of the vote to 20 per cent, with Reform unchanged at 27 per cent. Greens would also lose some support to the new Corbynistas. In short, the net result would make a Farage government more likely.
The new party's support, as now, would tend to be higher in constituencies with larger Muslim or student populations and places where there are lots of middle-class public sector workers. Some big Labour names would be vulnerable to losing their seats on current trends: Shabana Mahmood (Birmingham Ladywood) and Wes Streeting (Ilford North).
Who are the Alliance Group?
Aside from Corbyn there are four who campaigned mainly on the Palestinian issue and in protest at Labour's stance, and all beat Labour candidates and MPs over the party's position on Gaza: Shockat Adam (Leicester South) who dislodged Jonathan Ashworth; Ayoub Khan (Birmingham Perry Barr); Adnan Hussain (Blackburn); and Iqbal Mohamed (Dewsbury and Batley). If grouped together, they number as many MPs as Reform UK or the Democratic Unionist Party; as a formal party, with electoral funding, they could wield more influence.
Would they attract Labour MPs to defect?
Quite possibly, especially if the Labour leadership keeps taking the whip off its leftist or pro-Palestine rebels so they feel they have nowhere else to go.
Does Corbyn's grouping have any rivals on the left?
Lots of Marxist sects, but at the moment it's mostly the Greens and the Workers Party of Britain, led by George Galloway, who are in the same sort of territory. Who knows what could happen there. They could compete with each other and split the radical vote; or cooperate Germany-style and maximise their parliamentary representation as a Red-Green coalition. The Workers Party of Britain ran Angela Rayner a close second in the last general election, although Galloway lost Rochdale to Labour. He might like a rematch with Labour member Paul Waugh.
What might the new Corbyn party be like?
To some degree, it would resemble Labour under Corbyn: a fairly clear alternative on most issues, a hopeless muddle on others – prone to splits, big on rallies and trade union links, at odds with the media and plagued by accusations of antisemitism.
What do the five MPs agree on?
Working to end the suffering of the Palestinian people, and left-of-centre economics. One particular matter that will take up their time in the coming months is the legal definition of Islamophobia and, indeed, the disgusting wave of anti-Muslim hatred that appears on social media and elsewhere. This rise in racism is a distressing trend for anyone, but especially so for Muslim people. The grooming gang scandal has worsened the problem.
What are their differences?
Depending on how far Galloway gets involved, these could include the extent of their support for a two-state solution in the Israel-Palestine conflict; policy on the war in Ukraine; the EU; and 'culture war' controversies such as trans rights.
Any other problems?
The group's emergence as a party could exacerbate communalism in local politics in the big cities, based on ethnic or religious rather than class differences. The even more horrific prospect is that they allow a Farage-led government into power with all that entails for legitimising Islamophobia.
