Latest news with #LeslieVinjamuri
The Independent
7 days ago
- Business
- The Independent
The trade court's Trump tariff decision is a ‘deeply American problem' - with enormous global implications
A court has upended Donald Trump's already ever-changing tariff policies overnight, blocking the sweeping global levies in a significant blow to his administration. But experts warned the decision by the Court of International Trade will not necessarily provide any relief to countries hoping for lower tariffs or even trading uncertainty with the US. Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, Director of the US and Americas Programme at Chatham House said the ruling - from a court that 'most of the world will have never heard of' - was a 'major set back' for the president. But the decision, which has already been appealed by the Trump administration, is not any real cause for relief for American trading partners. On April 2, the US President announced high tariffs on nearly every trading partner, setting a sweeping baseline tariff of 10 per cent for most, while announcing even higher duties for dozens of other nations, including India and China. Since then, tariffs have been paused for some countries; tariffs on Chinese goods rose to 145 per cent before being cut to 30 per cent; and as recently as last week Trump threatened to lift duties on European Union goods to 50 per cent. So what does the court decision do to this landscape? Dr Vinjamuri said: 'For Europeans and the rest of the world trying to decide how to respond to President Trump's tariffs, the answer today appears to be, let America sort itself out but, still - continue to prepare for the worst and diversify your portfolio.' The United States Court of International Trade ruled that Trump's decision to impose global so-called 'reciprocal' tariffs on April 2 was unlawful, finding the justification the White House used was not valid. The administration argued it was a national security emergency, and Dr Vinjamuri said that while tariffs would remain a part of Trump's toolkit, it will be a difficult legal case for the president to fight. 'Yesterday's ruling is part of the broader story and question of what, who, how, and when will Trump be restrained in his efforts to overreach his executive authority,' she said. 'The ultimate question of US executive authority though will be decided by US courts, US corporate interests, US universities, and the US public. It is a deeply American problem with enormous global implications.' Countries have been working for weeks now to negotiate trade and tariff agreements with the US, and were reticent to comment on the court development. Germany said it could not comment, as did the European Commission. "We ask for your understanding that we cannot comment on the legal proceedings in the US, as they are still ongoing," a spokesperson for Germany's economy ministry said. "We continue to hope that a mutually beneficial solution can be reached in the negotiations between the EU Commission and the US government." China's foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning also had little to say when asked to react on Thursday. 'China has made its position very clear: tariff and trade wars have no winners. Protectionism benefits no one and is ultimately unpopular,' she said. Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. trade official who is now vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute, says the court's decision "throws the president's trade policy into turmoil". "Partners negotiating hard during the 90-day day tariff pause period may be tempted to hold off making further concessions to the US until there is more legal clarity,' she said. Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said the White House is already planning an appeal but there was a chance the House of Representatives and Senate approve the tariff plan regardless. 'So there is no guarantee that anything will change as the 9 July deadline for the reciprocal tariffs approaches (pending any trade deals),' he said. While global stock markets seemed encouraged by the court ruling, Mr Mould said that was 'perhaps as a reflection of the view that rule of law rather than presidential executive order is returning to the political stage in the USA'. For company management teams, business will remain tricky, he said. 'It will remain very difficult for them to plan ahead, even after the Court's decision, given the prospect of the White House's appeal,' Mr Mould said. 'In this respect, the near-term danger remains that companies hold off from spending or hiring with the result that US economic data remains soft, or at least murky and difficult to interpret.'
Bloomberg
30-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Trump's 100 Days Signal a New World Order
Donald Trump's first 100 days in office has marked a change in the global order as the 'international liberal order' has been 'upended' says Leslie Vinjamuri, Director of the US and Americas Programme at Chatham House. She was joined by Tina Fordham, Founder of Global Foresight, who says that the market fallout from tariffs has left once-optimists on Wall Street with 'buyer's remorse' as dealmaking is postponed and market volatility continues. Both unpacked the key themes and stories of Trump's first 100 days on "The Pulse with Francine Lacqua" on Bloomberg TV. (Source: Bloomberg)
Bloomberg
03-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Trump Tariffs Hurt US Dollar as China, EU Vow Response
"The Pulse With Francine Lacqua" is all about conversations with high profile guests in the beating heart of global business, economics, finance and politics. Based in London, we go wherever the story is, bringing you exclusive interviews and market-moving scoops. -------- Today's guests: Leslie Vinjamuri, Chatham House; Jonathan Reynolds, UK Business & Trade Secretary; Beata Manthey, Citigroup; Amur Lakshminarayanan, Tata Communications CEO; Bernd Lange, EU Parliament International Committee Chair (Source: Bloomberg)
New European
05-02-2025
- Business
- New European
Counting the costs of Donald Trump
Last Thursday, 30th January, the Europaeum – a network of 17 leading universities in Europe, based at Oxford University – held its first online seminar on global issues. The subject could not have been more topical: 'Trump 2.0: Implications for Europe, America, and the world'. The New European is partnering with the Europaeum to bring the discussion to a wider audience. We asked the five speakers to set out their key arguments in short pieces which we have pleasure in publishing today. Leslie Vinjamuri of Chatham House explains how Trump 2.0 is already proving much more ambitious and challenging to Europe than Trump 1.0 on multiple fronts. Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund defines Donald Trump's 'revolutionary' foreign policy as based on nationalism, unilateralism and geopolitics. Jacob Funk Kirkegaard of Bruegel and the Peterson Institute argues that the next four years could be marked by higher inflation and a boom-bust cycle in the United States. Suzanne Schneider of the Brooklyn Institute points to the contradictory pressures in Trump's new right coalition, each undermining market economics and dismantling the Reagan-Thatcher revolution. In drawing the threads together, Andrew Graham, the chair of the Europaeum who was Master of Balliol College, Oxford, looks to opportunities for Europe, as well as threats, as we negotiate the coming challenges of Trump's second term. If you would like to hear the full debate, you can do so by going to the following web link on YouTube. The Europaeum will be organising regular online seminars, which will also be featured in these pages.
