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Chicago Tribune
31-03-2025
- Business
- Chicago Tribune
Elon Musk hands out $1 million payments after Wisconsin Supreme Court declines request to stop him
Elon Musk gave out $1 million checks on Sunday to two Wisconsin voters, declaring them spokespeople for his political group, ahead of a Wisconsin Supreme Court election that the tech billionaire cast as critical to President Donald Trump's agenda and 'the future of civilization.' 'It's a super big deal,' he told a roughly 2,000-person crowd in Green Bay on Sunday night, taking the stage in a yellow cheesehead hat. 'I'm not phoning it in. I'm here in person.' Musk and groups he supports have spent more than $20 million to help conservative favorite Brad Schimel in Tuesday's race, which will determine the ideological makeup of a court likely to decide key issues in a perennial battleground state. Musk has increasingly become the center of the contest, with liberal favorite Susan Crawford and her allies protesting Musk and what they say is the influence he wants to have on the court. 'I think this will be important for the future of civilization,' he said. 'It's that's significant.' He noted that the state high court may well take up redistricting of congressional districts, which could ultimately affect which party controls the U.S. House. 'And if the (Wisconsin) Supreme Court is able to redraw the districts, they will gerrymander the district and deprive Wisconsin of two seats on the Republican side,' Musk said. 'Then they will try to stop all the government reforms we are getting done for you, the American people.' A unanimous state Supreme Court on Sunday refused to hear a last-minute attempt by the state's Democratic attorney general to stop Musk from handing over the checks to two voters, a ruling that came just minutes before the planned start of the rally. Two lower courts had already rejected the legal challenge by Democrat Josh Kaul, who argues that Musk's offer violates a state law. 'Wisconsin law prohibits offering anything of value to induce anyone to vote,' Kaul argued in his filing. 'Yet, Elon Musk did just that.' But the state Supreme Court, which is currently controlled 4-3 by liberal justices, declined to take the case as an original action. The court gave no rationale for its decision. Kaul had no immediate comment on the court's order. Musk's attorneys argued in filings with the court that Musk was exercising his free speech rights with the giveaways and any attempt to restrict that would violate both the Wisconsin and U.S. constitutions. The payments are 'intended to generate a grassroots movement in opposition to activist judges, not to expressly advocate for or against any candidate,' Musk's attorneys argued in court filings. Musk's political action committee used a nearly identical tactic before the presidential election last year, offering to pay $1 million a day to voters in Wisconsin and six other battleground states who signed a petition supporting the First and Second amendments. A judge in Pennsylvania said prosecutors failed to show the effort was an illegal lottery and allowed it to continue through Election Day. Liberals currently hold a 4-3 majority on the court. All four liberal justices have endorsed Dane County Judge Susan Crawford, the Democratic-backed candidate. Musk's attorneys, about four hours before the rally was to begin, asked that two liberal justices who have campaigned for Crawford — Jill Karofsky and Rebecca Dallet — recuse themselves from the case. His attorneys argued their work for Crawford creates 'the specter of inappropriate bias.' If they did recuse, that would leave the court with a 3-2 conservative majority. Both justices rejected the request and said they would spell out their reasons why at a later date. One of the court's conservative justices has endorsed Schimel, who wore a 'Make America Great Again' hat while campaigning Sunday. Schimel said in a national television interview that he does not control 'any of the spending from any outside group, whether it's Elon Musk or anyone else' and that all Trump asked was whether he would 'reject activist judges' and follow the law. 'That's exactly what I've committed to anybody, whether it's President Trump, Elon Musk or any donors and donors or supporters or voters in Wisconsin. That's my commitment,' Schimel told 'Fox News Sunday.' The contest has shattered national spending records for a judicial election, with more than $81 million in spending. It comes as Wisconsin's highest court is expected to rule on abortion rights, congressional redistricting, union power and voting rules that could affect the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election in the state.
Globe and Mail
26-03-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Silver Analogies, Copper's FAKE Breakout, and Tariffs
Dr. Copper can have meaningful insights into the health of the economy. But what if the Dr. himself is sick? The precious metals market is relatively calm today – just small declines across the board. This doesn't mean that we have no interesting news to report – they are simply not that clear at the first sight. Gold moved slightly lower, and so did the rest of the sector. One interesting thing that's not visible above is happening in the GDXJ, and something quite different (and even more interesting) is happening on the copper market. Let's start with GDXJ. The proxy for junior and mid-tier miners reversed yesterday and this was the seventh trading day after we saw the black candlestick that was heralding an upcoming top. In previous two out of three cases, the top formed on the very next day, and in the remaining case – in February – it formed after seven trading days. I marked both cases with orange rectangles. So far, today's decline is tiny, but it might be the start of something profound. Especially that the volume during yesterday's move higher was very small – which is a sign of exhaustion. The buying power is drying up here. Moving on to the situation in copper – the latter just broke to new highs. Bullish? Absolutely not. And it's not just because the breakout is not confirmed yet. It's not just because of today's reversal. It's also because this is absolutely typical for copper to form its final top in this way – slightly above the first one. That's how copper topped in 2008 and that's how copper topped in 2022. In 2011, there was also a final attempt to move higher, but back then there wasn't enough strength to move to a new high. Either way, copper's final tops aligned with major tops in the precious metals market – in particular ones in mining stocks and silver (and the orange, vertical lines show that). Those were not some short-term indications. No. Multi-month declines followed that created small fortunes for those who were correctly positioned to take advantage of those moves. Why would copper be rallying now? And why is this move likely fake? Tariffs and tariff threats. I already wrote about that on March 5, and we pretty much go more or the same since that time. The announcements and threats were what kept pushing prices higher, but the final effect is likely to be bearish. The Tariff Effect on Copper: History Repeating Itself My March 5th analysis on tariffs and their market implications provides crucial historical context for what we're witnessing now in the copper market. The relationship between tariff announcements and copper prices follows a remarkably consistent pattern: "Remember how when the tariffs were announced, copper rallied very temporarily, and I wrote that it was likely the top at that time (and it was)? We're likely seeing the same kind of effect right now in the case of copper and the opposite in the USD Index." This temporary euphoria in copper markets is currently being replayed as Trump's April 2nd "Liberation Day" approaches. What's particularly significant is how the pattern typically unfolds: "Copper soared once again, and this move is likely fake, exactly for the same reasons it was likely fake previously when the tariffs were announced. Just as copper declined shortly thereafter (and FCX declined much more), the same is likely this time." Historical Examples of Tariff Impact on the USD Index My March 5th analysis documented several historical cases of tariff implementations and their market effects, providing a roadmap for what we can expect now. US-China Trade War (2018-2020) Tariff Actions: March 2018: 25% tariffs on steel imports, 10% on aluminum July 2018: 25% tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods August 2018: 25% tariffs on additional $16 billion of Chinese goods September 2018: 10% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods May 2019: Increase from 10% to 25% on the $200 billion of goods USD Impact: Initial strengthening: The Dollar Index (DXY) rose from around 89 in January 2018 to 97 by December 2018 (approximately 9% increase) The USD strengthened against the Chinese yuan from 6.3 CNY/USD to nearly 7.0 CNY/USD The dollar's appreciation was driven partly by a "flight to safety" amid global trade uncertainty Trade tensions also contributed to the Federal Reserve slowing its rate hike cycle, which eventually limited the dollar's rise Steel and Aluminum Tariffs (2018) Tariff Actions: March 2018: 25% tariffs on steel and 10% tariffs on aluminum imports from various countries Initially included allies such as the EU, Canada, and Mexico, though some exemptions were later granted USD Impact: Short-term boost: The dollar strengthened by approximately 2-3% in the month following the announcement The DXY index climbed from around 90 to 92.5 The USD gained particularly against currencies of major steel exporters like Canada, with USD/CAD rising from 1.28 to 1.31 However, as allies announced retaliatory measures, dollar gains slowed Section 301 Tariffs on European Union (Airbus Dispute, 2019) Tariff Actions: October 2019: 10% tariffs on European aircraft and 25% tariffs on various EU products (wine, cheese, agricultural products) worth $7.5 billion annually This was authorized by the WTO in response to illegal subsidies to Airbus USD Impact: Modest strengthening against the euro: EUR/USD moved from about 1.12 to 1.09 over the following weeks Limited overall impact on the broader DXY as markets were more focused on Fed policy The impact was smaller than the China tariffs due to the more targeted nature and lower total value Solar Panel and Washing Machine Tariffs (January 2018) Tariff Actions: January 2018: 30% tariffs on imported solar panels and 20-50% on washing machines USD Impact: Minimal direct impact on USD as these were relatively narrow tariffs These measures served as a prelude to the broader tariff actions that would follow The dollar remained relatively stable in the weeks immediately following these specific tariffs US Tariffs on Chinese EVs and Critical Minerals (2024) Tariff Actions: May 2024: Quadrupling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles from 25% to 100% Increased tariffs on Chinese semiconductors, batteries, and critical minerals USD Impact: Short-term modest strengthening: The DXY moved up by about 0.5% in the week following the announcement Limited impact as markets had largely anticipated these measures Effect was overshadowed by broader macroeconomic factors, particularly Fed policy expectations Key Patterns in USD Response to US Tariffs Initial Strengthening: Almost all significant US tariff actions have led to short-term USD appreciation, particularly against the currencies of targeted countries. Diminishing Returns: Each successive round of tariffs during the 2018-2020 trade war had a smaller positive impact on the dollar, as markets increasingly priced in trade tensions. Policy Offset: The economic uncertainty created by tariffs often led to more accommodative Fed policy expectations, which eventually counteracted some of the dollar's tariff-driven strength. Differentiated Impact: Higher impact from broad-based tariffs (China trade war) Lower impact from targeted, sector-specific tariffs (solar panels, EU goods) Compounding effect when combined with other dollar-positive factors Correlation with Trade Deficit Changes: When tariffs demonstrably reduced the US trade deficit (temporarily), the dollar strengthened more significantly. So, what the USD Index is actually likely to do here is to become stronger. Does it make sense from the technical point of view? Yes! The invalidation of the move below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is a classic buy signal. This, plus the tariffs' real implications for the USDX creates a very bullish picture for the latter. This, in turn, is likely to have a profoundly bearish effect on the prices of copper, stocks (S&P 500) and – most importantly – precious metals (and miners!). Thank you for reading this analysis. If you'd like to access our complete premium analysis, including specific technical targets (we adjusted a part of our trading positions today), detailed analysis of mining stocks, and comprehensive portfolio insights, consider subscribing to our Gold Trading Alerts. I also invite you to stay updated with our free analyses - sign up for our free gold newsletter now. Thank you. Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chief
