Latest news with #LorettaMester
CNBC
6 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Former Cleveland Fed President Mester: The Fed should be waiting right now
Former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the challenges facing the Federal Reserve, state of the economy, rate path outlook, and more.
Yahoo
28-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Citi hosts the Citi Singapore Macro and Pan Asia Investor Conference from 28 to 30 May
SINGAPORE, May 28, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Citi hosts the Citi Singapore Macro and Pan Asia Investor Conference from 28 to 30 May The conference brings together distinguished political and economic experts for a series of multi-dimensional discussions focused on the latest geopolitical developments, economic outlook and topical investment themes impacting the financial industry. Over the next three days, Citi is expecting over 1,500 delegates including clients, investors, corporates, family offices, and private bankers to attend the conference, which includes over 20 panels and presentations and almost 7,000 meetings between corporates and experts. Key speakers include: Robert Lighthizer, Chair of the Center for American Trade at AFPI and Former United States Trade Representative and Senior Advisor to Citi's clients on global trade, Loretta Mester, Former President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and Dr Lawrence Summers, Former United States Secretary of the Treasury. Sue Lee, Head of Markets for Asia South at Citi, said, "We are entering a new era of trade policy and globalization, marking a deep structural shift in how markets move and how businesses operate. Citi's leading Markets franchise with a wide global footprint uniquely positions us to support our clients as they navigate this new environment." Citi's Markets business serves corporates, institutional investors, and governments from trading floors in almost 80 countries. The strength of our underwriting, sales and trading and distribution capabilities span asset classes (Commodities, Equities, Rates, Spread Products and FX), providing us with an unmatched ability to meet the needs of our clients. View original content to download multimedia: SOURCE Citi Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
France 24
04-05-2025
- Business
- France 24
US Fed expected to pause cuts again and wait for clarity on tariffs
Trump has imposed steep levies on China, and lower "baseline" levies of 10 percent on goods from most other countries, along with 25 percent duties on specific items like steel, automobiles and aluminum. The president has also paused higher duties on dozens of other trading partners until July to give them time to renegotiate existing arrangements with the United States. Most economists expect the tariffs introduced since January to push up prices and cool economic growth -- at least in the short run -- potentially keeping the Fed on hold for longer. "The Fed has to be very focused on maintaining inflation so that it doesn't start moving back up in a more persistent way," said Loretta Mester, who recently stepped down after a decade as president of the Cleveland Fed. "That would undermine all the work that was done over the last three years of getting inflation down," she told AFP. - 'Good place to be' - The Fed has held its key interest rate at between 4.25 percent and 4.50 percent since December, as it continues its plan to bring inflation to the bank's long-term target of two percent, with another eye firmly fixed on keeping unemployment under control. Recent data points to inflation hitting that target ahead of the introduction of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, while unemployment has remained relatively stable, hugging close to historic lows. At the same time, various "softer" data points such as consumer confidence surveys have pointed to a sharp decline in optimism about the health of the US economy -- and growing concerns about inflation. "Whether the economy enters a recession or not, it's hard to say at this point," said Mester, now an adjunct professor of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. "I think the committee remains in good condition here, and most likely they'll remain on hold at this meeting," said Jim Bullard, the long-serving former president of the St. Louis Fed. "I think it's a good place for them to be while there's a lot of turbulence in the trade war," added Bullard, now dean of the Daniels School of Business at Purdue University. Financial markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to announce another rate cut pause on Wednesday, according to data from CME Group. Pushing back rate cuts US hiring data for April published last week came in better than expected, lowering anxiety about the health of the labor market -- and reducing pressure on the Fed's rate-setting committee to reach for rate cuts. Economists at several large banks including Goldman Sachs and Barclays subsequently delayed their expectations for rate cuts from June to July. "Cutting in late July allows the committee to see more data on the evolution of the labor market, and should benefit from resolving uncertainty about tariffs and fiscal policy," economists at Barclays wrote in a note to clients published Friday. Other analysts see rate cuts happening even later, depending on the effects of the tariffs. The rise in longer-run inflation expectations in the survey data points to growing concerns that tariff-related price pressures could become embedded in the US economy, even as the market-based measures have remained close to the two percent target. "I would be sort of in the camp (saying) prove to me that they're (tariffs are) not going to be inflationary," Mester said, adding it would be "unwise" to assume that inflation expectations were stable given the recent survey data. But Bullard from Purdue took a different view, stressing the stability of the market-based measures. "I haven't liked the survey-based measures of inflation expectations, because they seem to be partly about inflation, but partly about many other issues, maybe, including politics," he said. "This is a moment where you might want to look through the survey-based measures that are talking about very extreme levels of inflation that don't seem likely to develop near-term," he added.
Forbes
01-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Gold Could Beat Stocks By 2030 Due To Geopolitical Risk, Stagflation
During times of economic uncertainty and high inflation, gold tends to outperform stocks. When economic growth is strong and predictable and inflation declines, stocks outperform gold. Due to the near certainty of high uncertainty under the current administration and the odds of high U.S. tariffs and counter-tariffs driving up inflation, we are entering a golden era for buying gold. Historically, stocks outperform other asset classes. For example, over the last 70 years, The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 13,900% – considerably more than the 7,800% inflation-adjusted rise in the price per ounce of gold. However, for the next five years, due to geopolitical risks, inflation, and/or central bank buying, gold could outperform stocks – rising to about $5,000 in 2030. If instead the next five years are a period of stable, low-inflation growth, earnings and dividends could send stocks up more than gold. Read on for a comparison of times when gold outperformed stocks and vice versa, why the difference, and what you should do about it. In times of high fear, people buy gold. This brings back memories of my sophomore year in high school when I asked my history teacher why people bought gold – which struck me as a shiny but fundamentally useless store of economic value. The teacher simply stared at me as if I was an unutterable fool. The answer to my question emerges from this analysis of the time periods over the last 70 years when gold outperformed the Dow: When economic growth is strong and inflation is low, stocks tend to outperform gold. What do the next five years bring for gold and stocks? Economists and portfolio managers – of which MacroPolicy Perspectives polled 115, expect a 'stagflation supply shock,' according to the New York Times. Those experts expected a 0.6 percentage point reduction in growth, a half point rise in the unemployment rate – to 4.6% over the next year, and a 0.5 percentage point rise in inflation to 3%, noted the Times. Such stagflation looks like the period from 1971 to 1980 – when gold outperformed stocks by 2,325%. It will certainly put the Fed into a difficult position of whether to raise interest rates to tamp down inflation or to keep them where they are now – or lower them – to keep unemployment from rising more. 'Internally they have to sit up and take notice of that even though in public they're trying to downplay it,' retired president of the Cleveland Fed Loretta Mester told the Times. 'You look at those measures and you have to say, 'Wow, these may not be as well anchored as we'd like.''
