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Misperceptions About Risk Are Blocking The Flow Of Finance To Emerging Markets
Misperceptions About Risk Are Blocking The Flow Of Finance To Emerging Markets

Forbes

time30-07-2025

  • Business
  • Forbes

Misperceptions About Risk Are Blocking The Flow Of Finance To Emerging Markets

TOPSHOT - A woman wades through flood waters at an inundated residential area in Garissa, on May 9, ... More 2024. Kenya is grappling with one of its worst floods in recent history, the latest in a string of weather catastrophes, following weeks of extreme rainfall scientists have linked to a changing climate. At least 257 people have been killed and more than 55,000 households have been displaced as murky waters submerge entire villages, destroy roads and inundate dams. (Photo by LUIS TATO / AFP) (Photo by LUIS TATO/AFP via Getty Images) Risk-return calculations drive the flow of finance towards emerging markets and developing economies. On the risk side of the equation, estimates are frequently conservative, based on sovereign ceilings rather than asset-specific or project-level risks. And sometimes, these estimates are based on geographical proximity rather than actual risk. A clear example is the 2023 coup in Gabon, which led investors to pull back from bonds across different African countries, driving up borrowing costs even for countries that remained politically stable such as Kenya. When looking at default rates across different points in time, emerging markets (EM) have often shown greater resilience than their advanced market (AM) counterparts during global crises. For instance, during the 2008 global financial crisis, default rates among EM firms were notably lower than those in AMs. Recovery rates in EMDE investments average 72 per cent, exceeding global averages for comparable assets (Moody's Global Bonds: 59 per cent; J.P. Morgan EM bonds: 38 per cent). Further, in a study by Moody's, we see that infrastructure loan default rates in Africa are less than a half of Western Europe and less than a third of those in North America. This suggests that the perceived risk of infrastructure investment in Africa may be significantly overstated relative to actual performance, highlighting a disconnect between investor perception and empirical evidence. All of these examples point to the fact that we may be overestimating the risks of investing in emerging markets. Such misalignment of perception and reality is driving investors to stay away from viable opportunities. Of course, some structural barriers remain. Currency and complexity risks can be addressed through currency hedging, credit enhancements and tailored guarantees. In 2021/22, average project ticket sizes in EMDEs were almost three times lower than in high-income countries. Aggregating projects and creating a pipeline of bankable opportunities, rather than trying to attract capital for small, individual projects, will ultimately make it worth the while for investors to engage. Further, to mobilise capital to these countries, it is vital to match mandates and ecosystems and to create greater collaboration between all stakeholders. Those in question include multilateral development banks, development finance institutions, banks, institutional investors, insurance companies, credit rating agencies and guarantee providers. Based on such findings, our report, Beyond the Myths: From Perceptions to Practice in Scaling Blended Finance to EMDEs, calls for five priority actions. These include: strengthening market infrastructure and transparency; building local capacity and partnerships; addressing information gaps and building investor confidence; aligning policy frameworks and investment mandates; and promoting standardisation and certification structures. Together, these steps can build investor confidence by dismantling long-held misperceptions, challenging biases, simplifying participation in projects, reducing costs and demonstrating the commercial case for blended finance. In short, they can finally unlock significant amounts of much needed private capital in those countries most impacted by climate change and with the fewest resources to adapt to the challenges of more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Photos this week: February 20-27, 2025
Photos this week: February 20-27, 2025

CNN

time28-02-2025

  • Politics
  • CNN

Photos this week: February 20-27, 2025

Samantha Power, former head of the US Agency for International Development, embraces laid-off employees and their supporters outside the agency's headquarters in Washington, DC, on Thursday, February 27. The Trump administration has made rapid moves to dismantle the agency, which provides humanitarian assistance around the perform Jhumur, an Indian folk dance, as they take part in a dress rehearsal Sunday, February 23, for the Jhumur festival in Guwahati, India. Biju Boro/AFP/Getty Images Local residents line up to collect water in Bukavu, Democratic Republic of Congo, on Friday, February 21. Since January, some 7,000 people have died in fighting in the eastern part of the country, Prime Minister Judith Suminwa Tuluka told the Human Rights Council on Monday. Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images Venezuelan migrants Ysarlyn Molina and Lisbianny Amaya rest as they wait for a boat to take them to the Colombian border in Gardi Sugdub, Panama, on Sunday, February 23. They were hoping to reach the United States but decided to return to their country due to the Trump administration's new immigration policies. Enea Lebrun/Reuters US Sens. Mitch McConnell, left, and Jim Justice high-five each other near an elevator at the US Capitol on Thursday, February 20. McConnell, the former Senate Republican leader, announced that day that he would not be running for reelection in 2026. Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc/Getty Images Migrants bound for the Colombian border board a boat at the Caribbean coastal village of Miramar, Panama, on Thursday, February 27. A growing number of Latin American migrants who have given up hope of reaching the United States are returning to their home countries in South America through a sea route in Panama, which poses new risks, according to authorities. Matias Delacroix/AP Elon Musk holds a chainsaw gifted to him by Argentine President Javier Milei, right, during the Conservative Political Action Conference in National Harbor, Maryland, on Thursday, February 20. Musk used the prop to tout his efforts to shrink the federal workforce in the Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency. Eric Lee/The New York Times/Redux A man uses a stick to sift through smoldering remains after widespread vandalism and looting at the World Food Programme warehouse in Bukavu, Democratic Republic of Congo, on Friday, February 21. Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images This aerial photo, taken on Friday, February 21, shows a beach in Mar del Plata, Argentina, that has turned an unusual reddish color because of a large amount of red algae. Diego Izquierdo/AFP/Getty Images Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer works in his office as the Senate conducts a "vote-a-rama" in Washington, DC, on Thursday, February 20. During the late-night session, Democrats attempted to force tough votes for Republicans over a slate of contentious issues, including the war in Ukraine, Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency, and protecting Medicare and Medicaid from cuts as Republicans seek to enact President Trump's legislative priorities. Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times/Redux Tal Shoham waves from a helicopter in Reim, Israel, after he was released by Hamas on Saturday, February 22. Shoham was kidnapped from kibbutz Be'eri during the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023. Hamas released six Israeli hostages from Gaza on Saturday in two public ceremonies and one private transfer, the final return of live hostages in this first phase of a ceasefire deal that began last month. Amir Cohen/Reuters Writer, comedian, cabaret performer and drag icon Verushka Darling poses near Qtopia Sydney on Wednesday, February 26. The Sydney Gay and Lesbian Mardi Gras is taking place through March 2. Don Arnold/WireImage/Getty Images Christian Democratic Union party leader Friedrich Merz, second from right, celebrates with Christian Social Union leader Markus Söder in Berlin after exit poll results were announced in Germany's election on Sunday, February 23. Merz is likely to become Germany's next chancellor after his center-right party and its sister party won 28.6% of the vote, according to preliminary official results. Kai Pfaffenbach/Reuters A rally takes place at the Georgia State Capitol in Atlanta on Friday, February 21, to protest recent cuts made to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The first month of the Trump administration has brought chaos to federal health agencies through mass firings, funding interruptions and communications freezes. Arvin Temkar/Atlanta Journal-Constitution/AP Leah Fauth gets a hug after leaving flowers in front of the West York Police Department in York, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, February 22. Police officer Andrew Duarte was killed and five other people were wounded when a man took medical staff hostage and opened fire at a York hospital on Saturday morning, officials said. The gunman was also killed, authorities said. Matt Rourke/AP People visit the Manila American Cemetery and Memorial in Taguig, Philippines, on Saturday, February 22. This year marks the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Manila. See last week in 31 photos.

Photos this week: February 20-27, 2025
Photos this week: February 20-27, 2025

CNN

time28-02-2025

  • Politics
  • CNN

Photos this week: February 20-27, 2025

Samantha Power, former head of the US Agency for International Development, embraces laid-off employees and their supporters outside the agency's headquarters in Washington, DC, on Thursday, February 27. The Trump administration has made rapid moves to dismantle the agency, which provides humanitarian assistance around the perform Jhumur, an Indian folk dance, as they take part in a dress rehearsal Sunday, February 23, for the Jhumur festival in Guwahati, India. Biju Boro/AFP/Getty Images Local residents line up to collect water in Bukavu, Democratic Republic of Congo, on Friday, February 21. Since January, some 7,000 people have died in fighting in the eastern part of the country, Prime Minister Judith Suminwa Tuluka told the Human Rights Council on Monday. Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images Venezuelan migrants Ysarlyn Molina and Lisbianny Amaya rest as they wait for a boat to take them to the Colombian border in Gardi Sugdub, Panama, on Sunday, February 23. They were hoping to reach the United States but decided to return to their country due to the Trump administration's new immigration policies. Enea Lebrun/Reuters US Sens. Mitch McConnell, left, and Jim Justice high-five each other near an elevator at the US Capitol on Thursday, February 20. McConnell, the former Senate Republican leader, announced that day that he would not be running for reelection in 2026. Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc/Getty Images Migrants bound for the Colombian border board a boat at the Caribbean coastal village of Miramar, Panama, on Thursday, February 27. A growing number of Latin American migrants who have given up hope of reaching the United States are returning to their home countries in South America through a sea route in Panama, which poses new risks, according to authorities. Matias Delacroix/AP Elon Musk holds a chainsaw gifted to him by Argentine President Javier Milei, right, during the Conservative Political Action Conference in National Harbor, Maryland, on Thursday, February 20. Musk used the prop to tout his efforts to shrink the federal workforce in the Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency. Eric Lee/The New York Times/Redux A man uses a stick to sift through smoldering remains after widespread vandalism and looting at the World Food Programme warehouse in Bukavu, Democratic Republic of Congo, on Friday, February 21. Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images This aerial photo, taken on Friday, February 21, shows a beach in Mar del Plata, Argentina, that has turned an unusual reddish color because of a large amount of red algae. Diego Izquierdo/AFP/Getty Images Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer works in his office as the Senate conducts a "vote-a-rama" in Washington, DC, on Thursday, February 20. During the late-night session, Democrats attempted to force tough votes for Republicans over a slate of contentious issues, including the war in Ukraine, Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency, and protecting Medicare and Medicaid from cuts as Republicans seek to enact President Trump's legislative priorities. Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times/Redux Tal Shoham waves from a helicopter in Reim, Israel, after he was released by Hamas on Saturday, February 22. Shoham was kidnapped from kibbutz Be'eri during the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023. Hamas released six Israeli hostages from Gaza on Saturday in two public ceremonies and one private transfer, the final return of live hostages in this first phase of a ceasefire deal that began last month. Amir Cohen/Reuters Writer, comedian, cabaret performer and drag icon Verushka Darling poses near Qtopia Sydney on Wednesday, February 26. The Sydney Gay and Lesbian Mardi Gras is taking place through March 2. Don Arnold/WireImage/Getty Images Christian Democratic Union party leader Friedrich Merz, second from right, celebrates with Christian Social Union leader Markus Söder in Berlin after exit poll results were announced in Germany's election on Sunday, February 23. Merz is likely to become Germany's next chancellor after his center-right party and its sister party won 28.6% of the vote, according to preliminary official results. Kai Pfaffenbach/Reuters A rally takes place at the Georgia State Capitol in Atlanta on Friday, February 21, to protest recent cuts made to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The first month of the Trump administration has brought chaos to federal health agencies through mass firings, funding interruptions and communications freezes. Arvin Temkar/Atlanta Journal-Constitution/AP Leah Fauth gets a hug after leaving flowers in front of the West York Police Department in York, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, February 22. Police officer Andrew Duarte was killed and five other people were wounded when a man took medical staff hostage and opened fire at a York hospital on Saturday morning, officials said. The gunman was also killed, authorities said. Matt Rourke/AP People visit the Manila American Cemetery and Memorial in Taguig, Philippines, on Saturday, February 22. This year marks the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Manila. See last week in 31 photos.

Mass burials and market looting in eastern DRC
Mass burials and market looting in eastern DRC

The Guardian

time21-02-2025

  • Politics
  • The Guardian

Mass burials and market looting in eastern DRC

People queue to collect water from a water point in Bukavu, 21 February. The DRC president, Félix Tshisekedi, is on a quest for support as war rages in the country's east but has so far returned empty-handed from trips abroad while anxiety mounts at home. Tshisekedi recently visited Angola and attended a security conference in Munich without making a clear diplomatic breakthrough, after Rwanda-backed M23 fighters seized control of two eastern cities Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images A man sifts through the smouldering remains of boxes and materials left behind by looters after clashes at a World Food Programme warehouse in Bukavu Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images Two men sit on a grave in front of a dumpsite observing from a distance as members of the Congolese Red Cross conduct a mass burial for victims of clashes in eastern DRC at Musigiko cemetery in Bukavu Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images Observers casts shadows as a member of the Congolese Red Cross sprays disinfectant on body bags during the mass burial Photograph: AFP/Getty Images Congolese Red Cross members pass women selling maize Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images M23 fighters stands guard for senior members of the group during a public meeting in Bukavu's Place de l'Indépendance after M23's takeover of the city Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images Flags fly on flagpoles in Bukavu's Place de l'Indépendance Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images A mass burial at Musigiko cemetery in Bukavu, 20 February Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images An M23 fighter walks through a pool of water as residents clean the streets after the takeover of Bukavu Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images Bukavu and Lake Kivu at dawn Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images An M23 fighter stands guard during the Place de l'Indépendance public meeting, 20 February Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images Another fighter in the Place de l'Indépendance Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images People stand on a wall for a view of the public meeting in Bukavu Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images Jolie Mataniko (right) lies on a hospital bed nursing wounds on her face next to other injured women at the general provincial hospital in Bukavu, 19 February Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images People venture out on to the streets after clashes at Kadutu market in Bukavu, 18 February Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images People gather around stalls at Kadutu market Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images A woman carrying her belongings on her head at a border post in Cyangugu, 17 February Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images A woman inspects damage caused by looters at Kadutu market in Bukavu Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images A framed poster of Félix Tshisekedi and discarded papers in an office at Kadutu market Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images

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