Latest news with #Lukashenka
Euronews
01-08-2025
- Politics
- Euronews
Putin threatens Europe with Oreshnik missile deployment to Belarus
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that Moscow has started production of its newest hypersonic missiles and reaffirmed plans to deploy them to Belarus later this year, posing a threat to neighbouring Ukraine. Sitting alongside Belarus' President Aliaksandr Lukashenka on Valaam Island near St Petersburg, Putin said the military already has selected deployment sites in Belarus for the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. "Preparatory work is ongoing, and most likely we will be done with it before the year's end," Putin said, adding that the first series of Oreshniks and their systems have been produced and entered military service. Russia first used the Oreshnik, which is Russian for "hazelnut tree", against Ukraine in November, when it fired the experimental weapon at a factory in Dnipro that built missiles when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union. That strike caused explosions which reportedly lasted for up to three hours but there were no fatalities. Russian state media extolled the Oreshnik after the attack on Dnipro and, in a warning to the West, claimed it would take just 11 minutes to reach an air base in Poland and 17 minutes to reach NATO's headquarters in Brussels. Putin has also praised the Oreshnik's capabilities, saying its multiple warheads that plunge to a target at speeds up to Mach 10 are immune to being intercepted and are so powerful that the use of several of them in one conventional strike could be as devastating as a nuclear attack. However, experts have pointed out that the missile's actual capabilities are yet to be proven and might be overblown for propaganda purposes. In June, reports claimed Oreshnik suffered a botched launch, with unverified footage purporting to show it fall apart over Kazakhstan, prompting an investigation by the authorities in Astana. Threatening the West The Russian president warned the West that Moscow could use it against Ukraine's NATO allies if they allowed Kyiv to use their longer-range missiles to strike inside Russia. Russia's missile forces chief has declared that Oreshnik, which can carry conventional or nuclear warheads, has a range allowing it to reach all of Europe. Intermediate-range missiles can fly between 500 and 5,500 kilometres. Such weapons were banned under a Soviet-era treaty that Washington and Moscow abandoned in 2019. Last autumn, Putin and Lukashenka signed a treaty giving what Moscow said were "security guarantees" to Belarus, including the possible use of Russian nuclear weapons. The pact follows the Kremlin's revision of its nuclear doctrine, which for the first time placed Belarus under its nuclear umbrella amid tensions with the West over Russia's ongoing all-out war in Ukraine. Lukashenka, who has ruled Belarus for over 30 years and has relied on Kremlin subsidies and support, allowed Russia to use his country's territory to send troops into Ukraine at the launch of the full-scale invasion in early 2022 and to host some of its tactical nuclear weapons. Russia has not disclosed how many such weapons were deployed, but Lukashenka said in December that his country currently has several dozen. The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, which has a 1,084-kilometre border with Ukraine, would allow Russian aircraft and missiles to reach potential targets there more easily and quickly if Moscow decides to use them. It also extends Russia's capability to target several NATO allies in eastern and central Europe. The revamped nuclear doctrine that Putin signed last year formally lowered the threshold for Russia's use of its nuclear weapons. The document says Moscow could use nuclear weapons "in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction" against Russia or its allies, as well as "in the event of aggression" against Russia and Belarus with conventional weapons that threaten "their sovereignty and/or territorial integrity".
Balkan Insight
25-07-2025
- Politics
- Balkan Insight
A calculated gesture? The release of Siarhei Tsikhanouski and the future of the Belarusian democratic forces
July 25, 2025 - Hanna Vasilevich - Articles and Commentary Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya often campaigned for her husbands release. Photo taken in Vilnius in May 2025 by Michele Ursi / Shutterstock The symbolism and strategy behind the release In June 2025, the Belarusian authorities announced the release of fourteen political prisoners, including Siarhei Tsikhanouski, a 2020 presidential election candidate and husband of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. While international observers cautiously welcomed the gesture, the release is less a sign of a regime in retreat than a carefully choreographed diplomatic performance by Alyaksandr Lukashenka's government. Tsikhanouski's imprisonment in 2020 had become a catalyst for the largest protest wave in Belarus's modern history, and his sudden freedom comes at a time when the regime faces mounting geopolitical pressures and persistent domestic unrest. Tsikhanouski's release is profoundly symbolic but equally strategic. His name has become synonymous with the Belarusian struggle for democratic change, and his incarceration was a rallying point for opposition forces. Yet, the timing and selectivity of his release reveal the regime's intent to manage perceptions and extract maximum advantage from every concession. Lukashenka's government has long weaponized political prisoners as bargaining chips, releasing them not out of genuine reformist impulses but to signal flexibility to the West while maintaining an iron grip on power. This pattern, documented by the Viasna Human Rights Centre and extensively reported by such media outlets as Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and Belsat, underscores that releases are always conditional and instrumental to the regime's broader strategy. Importantly, while some political prisoners are freed, the regime continues to detain many others, underscoring that these gestures do not signal a systemic change in repression. Aliaksandr Klaskouski, one of the leading Belarusian political analysts, has illuminated how Lukashenka's regime has cultivated a deliberate construction of an ongoing narrative of existential threat to justify repression and consolidate power. Klaskouski argues that the selective release of prisoners like Tsikhanouski fits this framework. After all, it is a controlled concession designed to project an image of magnanimity without ceding real authority or undermining the regime's grip on society. Geopolitical calculations and diplomatic signalling Understanding this latest gesture requires situating it within Belarus's complex geopolitical position. The regime remains heavily dependent on Moscow's economic and security support but is increasingly aware of the risks of international isolation and sanctions. By releasing selected prisoners, Minsk attempts to signal a willingness to engage diplomatically, particularly with the United States and the European Union, without undermining its strategic alliance with Russia. This delicate balancing act reflects Lukashenka's broader survival strategy: to maintain authoritarian control while exploiting geopolitical rivalries to extract concessions and reduce external pressure. The release of the American lawyer and political activist of Belarusian origin Yury Ziankovich in April 2025, a move widely interpreted as a signal to Washington, and the subsequent discreet visit made by a US envoy in May, laid the groundwork for the June releases and exemplified this calculated approach. Some commentators note that these amnesties are often timed around symbolic dates, such as the Day of National Unity, to project an image of national reconciliation and regime generosity. Yet, they also argue that these gestures are carefully staged performances rather than genuine reforms, requiring public expressions of gratitude from those released and accompanied by ongoing repression. The 'revolving door' nature of political imprisonment in Belarus – where releases are balanced by new arrests – ensures continued control and intimidation. This strategy allows the regime to deflect international criticism while testing western willingness to engage diplomatically without demanding substantive change. Selectivity and opposition dynamics Valer Karbalevich, another prominent Belarusian political analyst, has emphasized that the choice to release Tsikhanouski but keep other high-profile prisoners detained is a deliberate tactic to sow uncertainty within opposition ranks while maintaining leverage over international interlocutors. The regime's selectivity in prisoner releases is particularly telling. While Tsikhanouski and several foreign nationals – citizens of Poland, Latvia, Japan, Estonia and Sweden – were freed, other prominent detainees remain imprisoned. Among them is Andrzej Poczobut, the Belarusian journalist of Polish ethnicity and a minority activist whose continued detention has become a major irritant in Minsk's relations with Warsaw. The refusal to release Poczobut signals the regime's unwillingness to appear weak in the face of Polish pressure, even as it seeks to unsettle the opposition by freeing Tsikhanouski. Equally revealing is the regime's choice to release Tsikhanouski but not other high-profile political prisoners such as Viktar Babaryka or Maria Kalesnikava. Babaryka, the former banker and presidential hopeful, commands broad appeal among the urban middle class and is seen as a technocratic alternative to Lukashenka. His continued imprisonment reflects the regime's fear of empowering a figure capable of rallying both domestic and elite support, potentially threatening Lukashenka's narrative of indispensability. Kalesnikava, by contrast, has emerged as a symbol of uncompromising resistance. Her defiant stance during her arrest and imprisonment has inspired both domestic activists and international supporters. Releasing her could reinvigorate the protest movement's moral core and international visibility. By contrast, Tsikhanouski's political profile is closely linked to his wife Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's leadership in exile, making his release a calculated move to introduce uncertainty within the opposition without immediately strengthening its organizational capacity or international standing. This selective clemency underscores the regime's ongoing strategy of dividing and weakening the opposition by manipulating the fates of its most influential figures. Opposition reactions and Tsikhanouski's intentions Within the democratic forces, Tsikhanouski's release has generated a mixture of relief and apprehension. Since becoming free, Tsikhanouski has publicly affirmed that he has no intention of interfering with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's leadership of the democratic movement in exile, emphasizing the importance of unity in the face of ongoing repression. He has also expressed a firm commitment to advocating for the release of 'many, if not all' political prisoners, signalling that his focus will be on supporting detainees and their families while helping to rebuild opposition networks inside Belarus. Though cautious about outlining a direct political role or challenging existing leadership structures, Tsikhanouski's renewed presence injects both hope and uncertainty into the landscape of the opposition, a dynamic the regime is likely to exploit. Some experts have already stressed that only sustained multilateral pressure and coordinated international advocacy can transform prisoner releases from mere symbolic acts into meaningful progress. The international community must resist the temptation to reward Lukashenka's calculated concessions and instead focus on comprehensive strategies that confront systemic repression and bolster Belarusian civil society Between gestures and genuine change The release of Siarhei Tsikhanouski is undeniably a moment of relief for many within Belarus and the international community. Yet, this gesture should not be mistaken for a genuine opening or a sign of the regime's willingness to embrace democratic reform. Instead, it fits squarely within Lukashenka's long-standing playbook of managing opposition and international pressure through carefully calibrated concessions designed to maintain his grip on power. By freeing Tsikhanouski but continuing to detain other key figures, the regime is not only manipulating perceptions abroad but also sowing discord within an opposition usually characterized by unity, which has been one of its few sources of resilience. This selective leniency risks fracturing the opposition's effectiveness at a critical juncture, playing into the regime's hands. Moreover, the ongoing repression of hundreds of political prisoners underscores that the fundamental structures of authoritarian control remain intact. From my perspective, the international community must recognize this release for what it is: a tactical move rather than a breakthrough. Western governments should welcome humanitarian progress but remain vigilant against allowing Lukashenka to use such gestures as leverage to weaken sanctions or legitimize his regime. The opposition, meanwhile, faces the urgent task of reaffirming its unity and strategic coherence to resist the regime's divide-and-rule tactics. Ultimately, in Belarus, freedom remains a contested and weaponized concept. The release of political prisoners like Tsikhanouski offers a glimpse of hope but also a reminder of the regime's enduring capacity for manipulation. Meaningful change will require sustained pressure, principled solidarity, and a refusal to be placated by symbolic gestures alone. Hanna Vasilevich holds a Doctoral Degree in International Relations and European Studies. Her research interests include state ideology and propaganda, identity issues, inter-ethnic relations, linguistic diversity as well as diaspora and kin-state relations. New Eastern Europe is a reader supported publication. Please support us and help us reach our goal of $10,000! We are nearly there. Donate by clicking on the button below. Alyaksandr Lukashenka, belarus, political prisoners, Sviatlana Tsikhanouksaya
Euronews
21-06-2025
- Politics
- Euronews
Exclusive: Belarus releases political prisoners in surprise decision
Belarus has released a group of political prisoners on Saturday, in a US-brokered deal with President Aliaksandr Lukashenka, Belarusian opposition sources told Euronews. Exiled Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's husband Siarhei Tsikhanouski is among the released. Lukashenka's regime arrested him in 2020 as the then-Belarusian opposition presidential candidate and Lukashenka's direct opponent. The surprise release was brokered by US envoy Keith Kellogg, a longtime advisor to US President Donald Trump, who travelled to Belarus earlier this week for talks with Lukashenka. Since last year, Lukashenka has been regularly pardoning small numbers of imprisoned government critics in what analysts saw as a signal that Minsk was seeking to ease tensions with the West. In the run-up to the January 2025 presidential elections, Lukashenka has pardoned prisoners convicted of extremism, claiming that it was a "humane gesture" toward those who had "gone astray". Kellogg, US special envoy for Russia's war against Ukraine, has said privately that the trip to Minsk could help kickstart peace talks aimed at ending Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to two of the sources. Earlier, exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya told Euronews that Lukashenka "cannot be trusted' and Belarus is not a place for negotiations because Lukashenka "is part of this war". Lukashenka is a key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and has allowed him to stage part of his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 from Belarus. "He's a co-aggressor and he's serving Putin's interest, and he cannot be trusted at all," Tsikhanouskaya told Euronews. She described Russia's war in Ukraine as a blessing for Lukashenka and that he did not want it to stop. "(The government) is producing a huge amount of stuff for Russian army, and in this atmosphere of sanctions against Lukashenka's regime, it's a good source of income for him," she added. Who is Siarhei Tsikanouski? Previously a popular blogger, Siarhei Tsikhanouski decided to run against Lukashenka in the 2020 presidential elections and was arrested in spring, long before the summer protests in Belarus. Tsikhanouski was first given 'administrative detention' which prevented him from filing his candidacy before the deadline. His wife Tsikhanouskaya filed her candidacy instead, emerging as a leading opposition candidate. A Minsk court sentenced Tsikhanouski to 18 years in prison with the harshest possible conditions. He has not been allowed family visits and telephone calls. He has also not been allowed to meet with his lawyer confidentially, read, send letters, or receive letters and parcels. In 2023 he was given a new sentence of 1.5 years in prison in addition to the 18-year sentence he was already serving on the charge of 'disobedience to prison administration'. Tsikhanouskaya had no contact with her husband since he was jailed. She previously told Euronews that she did not know if he was alive. 'My children write letters to him, but they get no response. They ask if their father is okay, if he is still alive—it's an incredibly painful situation. My husband's imprisonment is my personal pain, but my goal is to free all political prisoners,' the Belarusian opposition leader said in an earlier interview with Euronews.** Lukashenka claimed victory in the 2020 presidential election deemed fraudulent by the EU and external observers, triggering mass protests. They were violently crushed by police, with tens of thousands of peaceful protesters arrested, and countless detainees suffering torture and other ill-treatment. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya went into exile for fear of prosecution. Many of her close associates, including her closest companion during the election campaign, Maryia Kalesnikava, were jailed. According to the Belarusian human rights centre Vyasna, over 50,000 people have been detained on political grounds after mass protests broke out following Lukashenka's 2020 presidential election win, and at least 5,472 people have been convicted in politically-motivated criminal cases. The United Nations estimates that around 300,000 Belarusians have left the country since then, with most going to Poland and Lithuania. Even today, between 15 and 20 people are being detained in Belarus every day. In 2023, Tsikhanouskaya was sentenced to 15 years in prison.
Euronews
18-06-2025
- Politics
- Euronews
Tsikhanouskaya: Lukashenka 'cannot be trusted' in US envoy visit
Exiled Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya told Euronews that President Aliaksandr Lukashenka "cannot be trusted at all", following a report of a planned meeting in Minsk between him and the Trump administration's Ukraine envoy. Keith Kellogg, a longtime advisor to US President Donald Trump, is planning to travel to Belarus this week to meet Lukashenka, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing four sources. Kellogg has said privately that the trip could help kickstart peace talks aimed at ending Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to two of the sources. Two rounds of direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv failed to make progress on ending the war, now in its fourth year. However, Tsikhanouskaya said on Wednesday that Belarus was not a place for negotiations because Lukashenka "is part of this war". Lukashenka is a key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and allowed him to stage part of his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 from Belarus. "He's a co-aggressor and he's serving Putin's interest, and he cannot be trusted at all," Tsikhanouskaya told Euronews. Tsikhanouskaya described Russia's war in Ukraine as a blessing for Lukashenka and that he did not want it to stop. "(The government) is producing a huge amount of stuff for Russian army, and in this atmosphere of sanctions against Lukashenka's regime, it's a good source of income for him," she added. "So he's not interested in peace. He maybe wants to be important in this deal, but he's not an independent actor here." The West has imposed sanctions on Belarus over its support for Russia's war in Ukraine as well as presidential elections in August 2020 and January this year that were widely rejected by Western governments and derided as sham polls. Lukashenka is Europe's longest-serving ruler, having continuously governed the former Soviet republic for 31 years. Tsikhanouskaya ran against Lukashenka in the 2020 vote, and was forced to leave the nation shortly afterwards. Along with many international observers, she accused him of stealing victory from her by resorting to large-scale vote-rigging. Minsk and Moscow have both dismissed such accusations and Western criticism of the elections overall. In early 2020, during Trump's first term, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo became the highest-ranking official from Washington to visit Belarus in more than two decades. However, relations between Minsk and Washington soured after Joe Biden became US president in 2021, and the US suspended operations at its embassy in Minsk in February 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This year, during Trump's second term, it appears that the US is attempting to improve ties with Belarus once more. In February, US officials visited Belarus to retrieve three political prisoners, according to a report in the New York Times. And in April, Belarus released Youras Ziankovich, a US citizen who had been jailed on allegations of plotting to assassinate the country's authoritarian leader. His supporters and Washington had called the charges bogus. Separately, the EU's foreign policy chief warned on Wednesday that Russia poses a direct threat to the European Union and said its massive defence spending shows that the Kremlin has a "long-term plan for long-term aggression". In an earlier interview with Euronews last week, Tsikhanouskaya said that the large-scale joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus taking place in the autumn might be a threat to NATO's eastern flank. "Don't forget the last military drills in Belarus ended with the attack on Ukraine", she told Euronews last week, referring to the upcoming Zapad 2025 manoeuvres.
New European
27-01-2025
- Politics
- New European
The election that wasn't in Belarus
The question at the heart of this election was never who would win, but by how much the incumbent president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenka, would steal the vote. The answer came on Sunday. He won 86.8% of the vote: a new record for the president's 30-year rule. Lukashenka barely campaigned at all, telling factory workers he was simply too busy. In reality, vote rigging made the result a foregone conclusion. Lukashenka's closest rival, Sergei Syrankov of the Communist party, took 3.2% of the vote. 'We understand who'll be the winner in this race,' Syrankov told Russian state media. 'We fully support that.' Activists were threatened by security services in the run up to the election. Those are not idle threats – 1,265 political prisoners already behind bars. No invitation was sent to Europe's main election observation body, the OSCE, and voters were banned from photographing their ballot papers – a tactic previously used by opposition activists to check whether votes were being fairly counted. 'These are not elections but a 'special operation' to illegally cling to power,' said Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the leader of the Belarusian opposition. She remains in exile after standing against Lukashenka in the country's 2020 elections. Her husband, Sergei, was jailed in Belarus for 18 years after organising anti-government protests. 'We will never accept [Lukashenka].' Lukashenka's stage-managed victory was intended to show a government firmly in control. During the last elections, five years ago, thousands of pro-democracy protesters flooded the streets in defiance of the regime. Although they were violently dispersed by police, the memory of that protest lingers. But while Minsk tries to project an image of stability, the reality of different. State oppression is only intensifying, says Olga Dryndova, a political scientist at the University of Bremen and editor of Belarus-Analysen . 'Belarus is still not North Korea, but there are signs of a state trying to control all the spheres of society, including the private sphere,' she says. 'Elections now play a different role: it's not about trying to show a façade of democracy, it's about showing control over society, control over the elections, and control over the political system.' As well as the pseudo-democratic sheen of the vote itself, Minsk released more than 250 political prisoners in the run-up to the election, a signal of willingness for fresh dialogue with the West. 'Lukashenka wants to try and win back some legitimacy: for [the West] to call him the president and talk directly to him. As a rule, a lot of countries don't do that now because they don't recognise him as president,' says Dr. Andrew Wilson, a historian at University College London. Such recognition is not only a matter of pride for Lukashenka himself: it would give Minsk a greater chance of shedding some of the sanctions currently imposed against it, for reasons ranging from Belarus' role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine to political persecutions. In a joint statement, the EU diplomat Kaja Kallas and EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos described the vote as a 'sham election' that was 'neither free, nor fair.' The US State Department also denounced the vote. 'Repression is born of weakness, not strength. The unprecedented measures to stifle any opposition make it clear that the Lukashenka regime fears its own people,' it said. But Lukashenka's leadership is less tied now with the ballot box than it is with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Minsk has battled to ensure it does not become directly embroiled in the conflict, although it has allowed Russian troops to launch attacks from its territory. 'Lukashenka has managed to be a co-aggressor against Ukraine, but has avoided sending troops to fight there. Belarusians like that,' says Tatsiana Kulakevich, an associate professor at the University of South Florida. 'For the last 30 years, the ideology of the Belarusian state has been 'Belarusians are a peaceful people'. It's so ingrained, this idea that we don't want to be 'like Ukraine'.' An unfavourable turn to the war for Putin will mean more pressure for Minsk to commit its own armed forces to the cause – or even the potential loss of Minsk's most important ally. Such scenarios are likely to leave Minsk increasingly hopeful for peace talks – particularly if Belarus can escape international ire in any final deal. 'If they forget about Belarus during peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, then Belarus is screwed because nothing will change,' says Kulakevich. 'People in Ukraine are paying for freedom with their lives. In Belarus, they are dying too – except hidden in jail.'
