5 days ago
Carol Kirkwood: Why weather forecasters (like me) often appear to get it wrong
Viewers are no longer just interested in knowing whether there'll be a heatwave; they want to know why.
That's the reason we publish more content explaining the physics of the aurora borealis, or why climate change is leading to bigger hailstones.
As for AI, it certainly could improve accuracy - but there's a risk, also, that viewers become deluged by information. Dr Hosking says that because AI is more nimble and can tweak weather models more quickly, users will soon have access to frequently-changing forecasts. They may also have "much more localised" information, he says (perhaps giving data not just on your town, but on your back garden, other analysts predict).
This could lead to an overwhelming amount of data for those using the app, gluing users to their smartphones. And in that world, it will become even more important for human forecasters to communicate the weather in a clear, understandable way.
But there are upsides too - not least the prospect of much longer-term, more accurate forecasts.
Perhaps one day, when a mother asks me to predict weather at her son's wedding six months from now, I might be able to give a slightly better answer.
Additional reporting: Luke Mintz
