Latest news with #LukeTryl
South Wales Guardian
19-05-2025
- Politics
- South Wales Guardian
Britons feel disconnected from society and lack faith in others
A survey of more than 13,000 British adults found 50% said they felt disconnected from society, while 44% said they sometimes felt like a 'stranger' in their own country. The findings come a week after Sir Keir Starmer argued that Britain risked becoming an 'island of strangers' if immigration did not come down. But the poll by More In Common suggested that the reasons for disconnection went beyond immigration and culture, with 47% of British Asians saying they felt like a stranger in their country – more than the 44% of white Britons who said the same thing. The survey found economic insecurity that was most closely related to alienation, with two-thirds of people who said that they struggled to make ends meet also saying they felt disconnected, compared to only 37% of the financially comfortable. Focus groups also suggested that a decline in face-to-face interaction, driven by technology, social media and working from home, had changed how people interacted with each other. Luke Tryl, director of More In Common, said the research showed 'an urgent need to think again about how we rebuild a united and cohesive society'. He added: 'The polling puts into sharp relief something that will come as no surprise to many Britons – a growing sense that we've turned inward, away from each other, becoming more distant and less connected.' The study marks the launch of a new national project – This Place Matters – focused on strengthening social bonds and backed by the UCL Policy Lab, campaign group Citizens UK and More In Common. Matthew Bolton, executive director of Citizens UK, said: 'The answers to this don't lie in Whitehall. 'By listening to people closest to the ground about what causes division and what builds unity in their neighbourhood, we can build a blueprint for cohesion rooted in local leadership and community power.' As well as increasing feelings of isolation, the poll suggested significant rates of mistrust, with 53% of people agreeing that 'you can't be too careful with most people'. But younger people were far more likely to lack trust in others, with the figure rising to 65% among 18-24-year-olds and 62% among 25-34-year-olds. The public is also split on whether multiculturalism benefits or threatens Britain's national identity, with 53% saying it is a benefit and 47% saying it is a threat, with some telling focus groups they believe there has not been enough integration. More In Common said focus groups had shown the fallout from last year's riots 'continues to reverberate and affect community cohesion', with many seeing the Prime Minister's response as 'one of his most impressive moments', but a minority feeling the Government had been 'too heavy-handed'. The More In Common poll surveyed 13,464 British adults between March 14 and April 7.
Telegraph
09-05-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
Desperate times: is Boris about to make a comeback and could he save the Conservatives?
If Boris Johnson wasn't pondering a political return, he wouldn't have given an interview to GB News this week – in the aftermath of the Conservatives' worst-ever local elections. ' I'm not convinced I'm in a position to do that at the moment,' he said, when questioned about a potential comeback. The door was very deliberately left ajar. First things first: the Tories have got through five leaders in roughly 10 years – of whom Johnson himself was one – and there's no reason to believe that the removal of Kemi Badenoch would solve the Conservatives' problems. The Tory ship is losing planks and leaking water. Another mutiny on deck would risk it going down altogether. But it's hard to keep your head while those about you are losing theirs – and blaming it on the leader. This year saw 23 council areas in England go to the polls. Next year, 150 or more may vote. Scottish parliamentary and Welsh assembly elections will also take place. Badenoch thus faces a mini general-election. Her leadership may not survive it. Or even last until then. And according to Luke Tryl, one of the most sober pollsters in the business, 'to a surprising degree across our focus groups in recent weeks the one Tory – particularly those leaning Reform – spoken of with any affection was Johnson… the difference between Boris and other Tories is, for whatever reason, he passes that connection/relatability/not a typical Tory test.' This presumably explains the recent survey by More in Common, of which Tryl is executive director, which found that the Conservatives would overturn an eight-point Reform poll lead and take a three-point lead themselves were Johnson to lead them again. The replacement of Badenoch by Robert Jenrick would, according to this survey, make no difference to the Tory position. Now polls tell many different tales, but Johnson's appeal may indeed not be exhausted – at least among the striving, provincial, just-about-managing voters who backed Brexit, voted Conservative in 2019, switched to Labour last year, and last week voted in substantial numbers for Reform. The Tories need to get voters to consider them again. If Johnson can't do it, can it be done at all? His return would also mean unfinished business. Admittedly, he wasn't compelled to leave Parliament. He chose to quit himself, before a by-election was forced on him. A Commons committee was poised to recommend a 90-day suspension from the House, which would have exceeded the 10-day threshold for triggering a recall petition and potential by-election. You may feel that this was no more than Johnson deserved – that the committee was right to find that he deliberately misled the Commons over Covid parties in Downing Street. But was it fair that the voters never had the chance to give their view at a general election? After all, they put Johnson in, and there's a case for saying that only they were entitled to turn him out. Whatever your view, his successors in government, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, were haunted from the start by the claim that neither had democratic legitimacy, since neither had won – or even fought – a general election before becoming Prime Minister. There would be a kind of justice in Britain's voters once again giving their view of Johnson as Tory leader at the ballot box. So much for the past. What of the future? The practical obstacles to a Johnson return are formidable. First, he would have to be re-admitted to the Conservative candidates' list. Second, he would need to find a local association to adopt him where a by-election was pending. Third, he would have to be returned to Parliament. And then, finally, win a leadership election. It sounds fantastical – as indeed it is. Self-preservation would suggest that Badenoch, who effectively controls the Tory candidates' list, has every reason to keep Johnson off it. By-elections are hazardous at the best of times, and this is a sticky time for the Conservatives. Above all, most of Johnson's most fervent parliamentary supporters lost their seats last year. Furthermore, a comeback wouldn't come pain-free. A slice of Toryworld sees Johnson as a joke in the worst possible taste. There would be resignations both outside Parliament and within it – and, perhaps, defections. But if the Conservatives are desperate enough, who knows what might happen? Johnson's zany story may have further twists in it yet. When the Tories are three-nil down and the clock is ticking, they tend to turn to their star striker on the substitutes' bench. And one can imagine, just about, Johnson turning the game round for the Conservatives. But there is much more to the matter than the Tories' own interests. Johnson might be a tonic for his party. But would he really be one for the country? Britain isn't paying its way in the world and must face up to some home truths. Voters know in their gut that the country faces unpalatable choices. They despise politicians for not offering a lead, but are fearful of what it might mean. It is very difficult to see Johnson, with his unquenchable boosterism, knuckling soberly down to the task. The best of governments would have been knocked off course by Covid and the Ukraine war. But Johnson's enemies have a lengthy charge sheet: net zero excess, ending no fault evictions, the Football Regulator, Covid lockdowns, a record tax burden, mass ministerial resignations. Some of this is unfair. But the critics have a point, and then some, about what happened to immigration. The 'Boriswave' saw net migration peak at 906,000 in 2023. It is thought his government simply threw open the doors. Does he think it was a mistake? Or would some future Johnson government do the same all over again? Whatever the answer, the strongest case against a Johnson return is the simplest one: been there, done that – time to move on. He may even draw that conclusion himself, especially if Reform continues to advance. Get ready for more Johnson interviews – more coat-trailing, more exploratory probing – if he thinks he has a crack at returning to Downing Street. But if that looks unlikely, the hard yards of leading a party to election defeat is surely not for him. For the moment, he will watch and wait.
Yahoo
30-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Chris Mason: A wildly unpredictable local elections
If last year's general election was all consuming and everywhere, this year's local elections, in truth, are neither. That is not to denigrate for a moment how much they matter in the places where they are happening, nor the extent to which they will mould the mood of national politics in their aftermath. But the reality is there are not many contests this year, not least because some have been postponed because of an imminent shake-up in local government structures in some places. So there is a very good chance you are reading this in a part of the country without any contests. And there is a good chance too, given what I hear from the political parties, that your heart might not be pulsating in ecstasy even if the community centre down the road is morphing into a polling station tomorrow. I detect a curious paradox right now: anger confronts an expectation of widespread indifference. Turnout in local elections that do not coincide with a general election are almost always shrivelled. But what I pick up anecdotally – I've just spent the last few days in Lincolnshire, reporting on the race to be the county's first directly elected mayor – matches what the research group More in Common has picked up in focus groups. The group's UK Director, Luke Tryl, diagnoses a "despondency or misery about the state of Britain that doesn't feel sustainable". Put that sentiment, reduced turnout and a splintering of party support in all sorts of directions into the mixer and what you end up with is a wildly unpredictable politics where the margins between victory and defeat could be very narrow indeed. Or to put it more bluntly: if not many votes in total then go in lots of different directions, two things are likely: the gap between the winner and the runners-up might be rather limited, and the share of the vote needed to win could be very small. And winning on a small share of the vote raises immediate questions about your mandate. The elections analyst Sir John Curtice argues in the Telegraph that "the mainstream is dead", five parties have a chance of making real inroads in these contests and what stands out now is that both Labour and the Conservatives are struggling, rather than the conventional dynamic of one being up while the other is down. The Conservatives have spent weeks talking up how down they feel about these elections. And senior Labour folk too are cranking up the gloom in the conversations I have with them. Which then leaves us with Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party and an often overlooked element of local English democracy – independents. This is a huge moment for Reform. One of the standout trends in British politics since the general election last year has been the party's rising support in the opinion polls. What Thursday will test is the extent to which that translates into real votes in real elections. The party's talk is big – they say they can win the next general election. The next few days will give us a sense of how or whether, albeit up to four years out from choosing the next government, that is a plausible claim. When you wake up on Friday morning. if, unlike political nerds, you have actually been to bed, the headlines that will greet you will be about Reform. That is because a lot of the contests where there is an expectation that they could win are being counted overnight. There is the parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby near Liverpool and the race to be Lincolnshire's first mayor, for a start. Later in the day on Friday, the emphasis will shift somewhat, as local authorities particularly but not exclusively in the south of England do their counting, and the Liberal Democrats will be looking to make extensive gains against the Conservatives in particular and we will be able to assess if the Green Party's collection of councillors has grown again. It is only by Friday teatime that we will have a rounded picture of how all of the parties and the independents contesting these elections have fared. And then the debate on what it all means will begin. POSTCODE LOOKUP: Check if there is an election in your area IN DEPTH: Will this be the 'anyone but the big parties' local election? SIMPLE GUIDE: Everything you need to know about the local elections GET IN TOUCH: Tell us the election issues that matter to you FULL COVERAGE: Catch up on all our election stories
BBC News
30-04-2025
- Politics
- BBC News
Chris Mason: A wildly unpredictable local elections
If last year's general election was all consuming and everywhere, this year's local elections, in truth, are is not to denigrate for a moment how much they matter in the places where they are happening, nor the extent to which they will mould the mood of national politics in their the reality is there are not many contests this year, not least because some have been postponed because of an imminent shake-up in local government structures in some there is a very good chance you are reading this in a part of the country without any contests. And there is a good chance too, given what I hear from the political parties, that your heart might not be pulsating in ecstasy even if the community centre down the road is morphing into a polling station tomorrow.I detect a curious paradox right now: anger confronts an expectation of widespread in local elections that do not coincide with a general election are almost always what I pick up anecdotally – I've just spent the last few days in Lincolnshire, reporting on the race to be the county's first directly elected mayor – matches what the research group More in Common has picked up in focus group's UK Director, Luke Tryl, diagnoses a "despondency or misery about the state of Britain that doesn't feel sustainable".Put that sentiment, reduced turnout and a splintering of party support in all sorts of directions into the mixer and what you end up with is a wildly unpredictable politics where the margins between victory and defeat could be very narrow to put it more bluntly: if not many votes in total then go in lots of different directions, two things are likely: the gap between the winner and the runners-up might be rather limited, and the share of the vote needed to win could be very winning on a small share of the vote raises immediate questions about your elections analyst Sir John Curtice argues in the Telegraph that "the mainstream is dead", five parties have a chance of making real inroads in these contests and what stands out now is that both Labour and the Conservatives are struggling, rather than the conventional dynamic of one being up while the other is Conservatives have spent weeks talking up how down they feel about these senior Labour folk too are cranking up the gloom in the conversations I have with then leaves us with Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party and an often overlooked element of local English democracy – is a huge moment for of the standout trends in British politics since the general election last year has been the party's rising support in the opinion Thursday will test is the extent to which that translates into real votes in real party's talk is big – they say they can win the next general election. The next few days will give us a sense of how or whether, albeit up to four years out from choosing the next government, that is a plausible you wake up on Friday morning. if, unlike political nerds, you have actually been to bed, the headlines that will greet you will be about is because a lot of the contests where there is an expectation that they could win are being counted is the parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby near Liverpool and the race to be Lincolnshire's first mayor, for a in the day on Friday, the emphasis will shift somewhat, as local authorities particularly but not exclusively in the south of England do their counting, and the Liberal Democrats will be looking to make extensive gains against the Conservatives in particular and we will be able to assess if the Green Party's collection of councillors has grown is only by Friday teatime that we will have a rounded picture of how all of the parties and the independents contesting these elections have then the debate on what it all means will begin. POSTCODE LOOKUP: Check if there is an election in your areaIN DEPTH: Will this be the 'anyone but the big parties' local election?SIMPLE GUIDE: Everything you need to know about the local electionsGET IN TOUCH: Tell us the election issues that matter to youFULL COVERAGE: Catch up on all our election stories
Channel 4
29-04-2025
- Politics
- Channel 4
Exclusive poll shows deep disillusionment amongst voters
Deep disillusionment and a fracturing of the traditional two party political system is likely to be the overriding message from voters at local elections this Thursday, according to pollsters. None of the major political party leaders has the confidence of the majority of voters in this week's local election, according to an exclusive poll for Channel 4 News by More In Common. Voters in the areas going to the polls this week were asked who they thought would be most effective in governing the country – 41% responded: 'None of the above'. The result could be an unprecedented number of councils where ultimately no single party is in control come Friday, says More In Common executive director Luke Tryl. Mr Tryl said: 'The public mood going into these elections is one of deep disillusionment, voters are impatient for change but aren't confident any party can deliver it. 'As results trickle in on Friday this polling suggests we will see that the fragmentation of the electorate in last year's General Election has only accelerated since then.' 'The public mood going into these elections is one of deep disillusionment, voters are impatient for change but aren't confident any party can deliver it.' – Luke Tryl Thursday's elections Elections are being held in 23 councils across England – with more than 1,600 seats up for grabs. The poll also asked who they intended to vote in the local elections: 26% said Reform, 25% responded Conservative, 18% answered Labour, 17% replied Liberal Democrats, with the Greens getting support from 8% of respondents while 6% said 'Other'. The Tories in second place on 25% though is a terrible result for them – the last time these councils had local elections was in 2021, when Boris Johnson enjoying the vaccine bounce after Covid and he was at his most popular. Relative to then, 25% is bad and will mean significant losses. Mr Tryl said: 'Nigel Farage's Reform UK look set to be the big winners of the night, leading in our polling, while the Conservatives on these numbers would lose scores of seats in elections being contested on normally solid turf – both to Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats.' What's shaping this election? So what's shaping this election? Voters were asked for their top 3 priorities – 35% said 'This party will be most competent at running the council.' But then it's national issues in voters' minds – Cost of living, immigration, sending a message to the Labour Party, and the NHS. However, this varies drastically when you break it down by party. For voters intending to vote Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem, their top priority is 'This party will be most competent at running the council.' Among voters intending to vote Reform though it's immigration, and for the Greens it's 'climate and the environment.' 'Most effective' leader The polling also shows that no national political leader is winning over the majority of the public at present. Asked who they thought would be most effective in governing the country – 41% responded: 'None of the above'. The second most popular choice was Reform's Nigel Farage with 23%, followed by the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, with 19%, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch with 8%, the Lib-Dem's Ed Davey on 6% and the Green's co-leaders, Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay, coming last with 2%. The test for the traditional major political parties will come after these local elections. Reform are likely to be riding high – the Conservatives and Labour will have to dust themselves down and work out just how they reconnect with voters who are at the moment, telling pollsters at least, they are sick of both the traditional main parties.
