Exclusive poll shows deep disillusionment amongst voters

Channel 4

29-04-2025

Deep disillusionment and a fracturing of the traditional two party political system is likely to be the overriding message from voters at local elections this Thursday, according to pollsters.
None of the major political party leaders has the confidence of the majority of voters in this week's local election, according to an exclusive poll for Channel 4 News by More In Common.
Voters in the areas going to the polls this week were asked who they thought would be most effective in governing the country – 41% responded: 'None of the above'.
The result could be an unprecedented number of councils where ultimately no single party is in control come Friday, says More In Common executive director Luke Tryl.
Mr Tryl said: 'The public mood going into these elections is one of deep disillusionment, voters are impatient for change but aren't confident any party can deliver it.
'As results trickle in on Friday this polling suggests we will see that the fragmentation of the electorate in last year's General Election has only accelerated since then.'
'The public mood going into these elections is one of deep disillusionment, voters are impatient for change but aren't confident any party can deliver it.'
– Luke Tryl
Thursday's elections
Elections are being held in 23 councils across England – with more than 1,600 seats up for grabs.
The poll also asked who they intended to vote in the local elections: 26% said Reform, 25% responded Conservative, 18% answered Labour, 17% replied Liberal Democrats, with the Greens getting support from 8% of respondents while 6% said 'Other'.
The Tories in second place on 25% though is a terrible result for them – the last time these councils had local elections was in 2021, when Boris Johnson enjoying the vaccine bounce after Covid and he was at his most popular.
Relative to then, 25% is bad and will mean significant losses.
Mr Tryl said: 'Nigel Farage's Reform UK look set to be the big winners of the night, leading in our polling, while the Conservatives on these numbers would lose scores of seats in elections being contested on normally solid turf – both to Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats.'
What's shaping this election?
So what's shaping this election? Voters were asked for their top 3 priorities – 35% said 'This party will be most competent at running the council.'
But then it's national issues in voters' minds – Cost of living, immigration, sending a message to the Labour Party, and the NHS.
However, this varies drastically when you break it down by party.
For voters intending to vote Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem, their top priority is 'This party will be most competent at running the council.'
Among voters intending to vote Reform though it's immigration, and for the Greens it's 'climate and the environment.'
'Most effective' leader
The polling also shows that no national political leader is winning over the majority of the public at present.
Asked who they thought would be most effective in governing the country – 41% responded: 'None of the above'.
The second most popular choice was Reform's Nigel Farage with 23%, followed by the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, with 19%, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch with 8%, the Lib-Dem's Ed Davey on 6% and the Green's co-leaders, Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay, coming last with 2%.
The test for the traditional major political parties will come after these local elections.
Reform are likely to be riding high – the Conservatives and Labour will have to dust themselves down and work out just how they reconnect with voters who are at the moment, telling pollsters at least, they are sick of both the traditional main parties.