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Telegraph
6 days ago
- Politics
- Telegraph
I know the real reason only a third of Brits now support Brexit
For those still in the jungle, launching sniper attacks against the enemy, completely unaware that the war has been over for nearly a decade, the latest poll on EU membership will have been encouraging. Were another referendum to be held today (according to pollsters More In Common), only 29 per cent of Britons would vote to leave the European Union, while 52 per cent would vote Remain. The most obvious point to make is that there isn't going to be another referendum because none of the main parties wants one. But the more substantive point is that five years after actually leaving the trade bloc, support for 'Remain' (presumably this should be more accurately labelled as 'Rejoin') has increased by just four percentage points in nine years, which is virtually within the margin of error for polls of this size. It is true, however, that support for the Leave position (or, as we must now call it, the status quo or 'Remain') has plummeted to just 29 per cent. Would these headline figures be accurately represented in the actual result were a second referendum to happen? Who could accurately predict the state of play following another intensive, bitter, divisive referendum campaign with daily exchanges of arguments, accusations and insults? Certainly there would be a strategic challenge for the 'Rejoin' campaign as it sought to draw a contrast between the economic and social reality of today with their claims of what Britain would have been like (maybe, perhaps, probably) had we voted Remain in 2016. On the 'Remain (outside the EU)' side, it would be a reasonably easy task to draw a contrast between life in the UK today and the poverty-strewn, zombie-infested, Leave-voting hellscape so frequently invoked by the likes of George Osborne and David Cameron during the 2016 campaign. But even this doesn't adequately reflect the nature of the hypothetical campaign that the losers in the last campaign anticipate. It would be interesting to see the results of a poll that asked respondents: 'Do you wish to rejoin the EU at the cost of around £10 billion a year and the replacement of the pound with the euro?' We live in a country whose government insists we cannot afford to abolish the two-child benefit cap or to pay pensioners to heat their homes. Yet we are to be asked to revert to (at least) the level of net contributions to the Brussels budget that we paid before we left? But even that prospect would hardly be less toxic than that of losing forever the right to our own currency. The design and value of the notes in your wallet, of course, are less important than the more important question of who gets to decide on mortgage rates for UK home-owners. As a new applicant to the European Union, Britain would be obliged to sign up for euro membership, which means surrendering monetary policy – including interest rates – to the European Central Bank, over which no elected politician has any influence. Given the vast differences between the UK and most EU economies, it is hardly likely that interest rates would be set to favour British workers. All of which means two things: that any referendum would be as messy, complex and unpredictable as the last one, and that the current government is more likely to continue to pursue a 'reset' with the EU rather than seek explicitly democratic approval for closer relations, in the knowledge that progress towards Labour's preferred outcome – adherence to EU food standards and surrender of UK fishing rights, not to mention subservience once more to the Luxembourg-based European Court of Justice – is best made without the interference of pesky voters.
Telegraph
03-08-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
Fewer than a third of voters would back Brexit again, poll finds
Fewer than a third of voters would back leaving the European Union if the Brexit referendum were held again, a new poll has found. Just 29 per cent of people would vote to withdraw from the EU if a vote was held again compared to 52 per cent in June 2016, according to a survey for The Sunday Times. The More in Common research also found that nearly half of respondents believe there should be another referendum on whether to rejoin the bloc. The results represent a marked shift in attitudes towards being part of the EU less than ten years after the historic result in 2016. Supporters of Sir Keir Starmer's approach to restoring closer ties with European partners will see the results as a sign that the policy shift is the right move. The Prime Minister agreed a 'reset' deal in May with the EU that removed border checks and red tape on agri-food, making it easier to trade with European countries. But critics seized on clauses in the deal which give European fishermen access to the UK's coastal waters until 2038 and, and force Britain to follow EU rules on food standards. The issue of fish and being tied to the EU on trading standards, and therefore under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, were among reasons that Brexiteers originally advocated leaving the bloc. London and Brussels also agreed to hold future talks on a youth mobility scheme, under which an unknown number of EU citizens would be able to come to Britain each year. The poll found that the only voting groups for which the majority would still back leaving the EU were Tory voters, at 52 per cent, and Reform UK voters, at 68 per cent. Sir Keir was accused by Reform of ' trying to kiss goodbye to Brexit ' with his EU deal, with Richard Tice, the party's deputy leader, claiming it was 'surrender on steroids'. Elsewhere, the poll found that almost 30 per cent of voters want Britain to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). Support for leaving the convention was at its highest among those who voted for Reform at the general election last year, at 68 per cent. But the survey also found that a majority, 58 per cent, think that Britain should remain in the ECHR, an increase of eight points since June. It was in June that Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the Conservative Party, announced that the party would conduct a review into Britain's membership of the convention, and that she was 'minded' it was necessary to leave. But last month Mrs Badenoch brought Sir James Cleverly, the former home secretary and Tory leadership rival, back onto her front bench. Sir James has refused to endorse her position on the treaty, having suggested before the reshuffle that quitting the ECHR would not necessarily lead to more foreign criminals being deported.
The Guardian
02-08-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Wes Streeting said to be eyeing up No 10 – but how will doctors' strikes affect his chances?
From Jeremy Hunt and Alan Johnson to Andy Burnham and Ken Clarke, politics is littered with ambitious former health secretaries who did not make it into No 10. The aspirational current health secretary, Wes Streeting, is believed by colleagues to have his sights on bucking that trend, and one day replacing Keir Starmer in Downing Street. However, the resident doctors' strike represents a moment of danger for the health secretary, with the medics pitching themselves against the government by demanding a return to the real-terms pay levels of 2008. It would be 25% salary increase on top of a 29% rise over the past three years, with the government outright refusing to open pay discussions and restricting any talks to negotiating on other benefits such as pensions. Streeting has personally taken a robust approach to the doctors – telling them 'if you go to war with us, you'll lose' – which on some levels appears in tune with the public mood. Polling from More in Common shows that overall, people do not back the doctors' strikes, and feeling has turned further against increasing the pay of medics over the past two weeks. Support for them dropped from -10% to -15% while the industrial action was going on. Luke Tryl, the director of More In Common, said: 'The biggest shift between the two weeks is people are now more likely to say the government should not do whatever it takes to end the strikes. My previous view was that it didn't really matter if the public were on side with Streeting against the doctors because the doctors could just bring the NHS to a halt, people would just rather it worked. Even two weeks ago people thought that, but the fact that it has now flipped is interesting and people are more likely to say 'dig in'. 'I do think it's because Wes Streeting has been out there making the arguments. In focus groups, it seems like his message has landed. People are slightly, for the first time, more likely to say resident doctors are paid too much rather than too little.' However, there are two difficult caveats in the data for Streeting. The first is that most of the public blame the government for the strikes in the first place, with 39% saying it is ministers' fault, 31% pointing the figure at resident doctors and 11% at hospital management. The second is that Labour voters are now the only political grouping who back the striking doctors, with a net 3% in favour of the strikes, down from a net 12% in favour before they started. Labour members tend to be even more sympathetic to strike action than Labour voters, so this group of people who choose the next party leader are not on board with the government's arguments. And while there are no public rumblings of discontent about Streeting's approach, some Labour MPs question the wisdom of pitching the industrial dispute as a battle – rather than taking a more emollient tone. 'Jeremy Hunt never really recovered from his bruising encounter with the doctors,' says one Labour MP. 'It never looks good to be talking about 'war' with public servants in a caring profession.' However, Labour sources say there is a huge difference between now and the strikes that Hunt was opposing in 2016 – then the first industrial action taken in more than 40 years, which centred more around shift patterns and contract changes. 'The fact that public opinion has shifted so far against resident doctor strikes shows how different the landscape is,' the senior source said. 'The truth is that, slowly but surely, people are noticing some of their family and friends are being seen quicker by the NHS. They don't want to go backwards. 'The Tories drove the NHS into the ground. In a large part, the malaise felt by resident doctors is that they're just sick and tired of how poor working conditions have become over the 15 years of Tory government. 'But the BMA's leadership should recognise how they now have a government that is far different to deal with. Two above-inflation pay rises, the biggest hike in the public sector, work already under way on improving working conditions and so much more we can do if they chose to actually just work with government.' Ultimately, though, the wider mood about the strikes and Streeting's leadership through the turmoil is likely to depend on how the NHS manages to hold up operationally. NHS sources said the first five-day strike had led to some services being cancelled but many fewer than on previous occasions, with trust leaders suggesting appointments and operations were at about 90-95% of usual activity. Figures for how many doctors turned out on strike were not yet available but sources suggested it had been patchy, and that trusts were 'better at managing' the situation as they had practice now from prior strikes. The British Medical Association, the doctors' union behind the strikes, has said hospitals were opting for unsafe cover rather than cancellation of operations, in a 'reckless' approach to the strikes. But if Streeting can oversee minimal disruption in the NHS while doctors are on strike or reach a deal on other financial conditions, then the government could emerge strengthened. And while Labour voters support the doctors' aims, they also like to see a government demonstrating operational competence and avoiding crisis. Tryl says: 'If Labour fails on their mission of reducing waiting lists, that's what will cut through and would damage Wes. But equally, if he holds firm and wins, it could help the government. 'There is a sense that government isn't in control any more is such a big driver of the 'broken Britain' mood, it kind of goes beyond individual services. If Wes can show the government is in control on this, that could end up helping.'
Economist
24-07-2025
- Politics
- Economist
Seven in ten Britons expect more riots
PROTESTS AND riots last year brought to the fore simmering tensions about immigration and integration. Twelve months on, what do Britons think about social cohesion, multiculturalism and the risk of further unrest on their streets? We commissioned More In Common, a polling firm, to find out. The responses, from a representative national sample, add to the evidence that matters have got worse.
Bloomberg
19-07-2025
- Politics
- Bloomberg
Britain's Afghan Cover-Up Takes State Secrecy Too Far
Despite the balmy summer weather, the mood in the UK is bleak. Polling by More in Common, which tests sentiment as well as viewpoints, this week reveals that '87% of Britons express little to no trust in politicians and many feel that the system itself - not just individual leaders - is fundamentally broken.' As if to confirm the worst 'broken Britain' fears of voters, High Court judge Martin Chamberlain added to the gloom. On Tuesday, he lifted a legal gag order that had kept secret one of the most serious official security breaches in years. Three years ago, a Royal Marine mistakenly disseminated a database containing the names, addresses and phone numbers of around 19,000 Afghans, many of whom helped the British army fight the Taliban. The leak also blew the cover of MI6 spies serving in the field.
