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Channel 4
29-04-2025
- Politics
- Channel 4
Exclusive poll shows deep disillusionment amongst voters
Deep disillusionment and a fracturing of the traditional two party political system is likely to be the overriding message from voters at local elections this Thursday, according to pollsters. None of the major political party leaders has the confidence of the majority of voters in this week's local election, according to an exclusive poll for Channel 4 News by More In Common. Voters in the areas going to the polls this week were asked who they thought would be most effective in governing the country – 41% responded: 'None of the above'. The result could be an unprecedented number of councils where ultimately no single party is in control come Friday, says More In Common executive director Luke Tryl. Mr Tryl said: 'The public mood going into these elections is one of deep disillusionment, voters are impatient for change but aren't confident any party can deliver it. 'As results trickle in on Friday this polling suggests we will see that the fragmentation of the electorate in last year's General Election has only accelerated since then.' 'The public mood going into these elections is one of deep disillusionment, voters are impatient for change but aren't confident any party can deliver it.' – Luke Tryl Thursday's elections Elections are being held in 23 councils across England – with more than 1,600 seats up for grabs. The poll also asked who they intended to vote in the local elections: 26% said Reform, 25% responded Conservative, 18% answered Labour, 17% replied Liberal Democrats, with the Greens getting support from 8% of respondents while 6% said 'Other'. The Tories in second place on 25% though is a terrible result for them – the last time these councils had local elections was in 2021, when Boris Johnson enjoying the vaccine bounce after Covid and he was at his most popular. Relative to then, 25% is bad and will mean significant losses. Mr Tryl said: 'Nigel Farage's Reform UK look set to be the big winners of the night, leading in our polling, while the Conservatives on these numbers would lose scores of seats in elections being contested on normally solid turf – both to Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats.' What's shaping this election? So what's shaping this election? Voters were asked for their top 3 priorities – 35% said 'This party will be most competent at running the council.' But then it's national issues in voters' minds – Cost of living, immigration, sending a message to the Labour Party, and the NHS. However, this varies drastically when you break it down by party. For voters intending to vote Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem, their top priority is 'This party will be most competent at running the council.' Among voters intending to vote Reform though it's immigration, and for the Greens it's 'climate and the environment.' 'Most effective' leader The polling also shows that no national political leader is winning over the majority of the public at present. Asked who they thought would be most effective in governing the country – 41% responded: 'None of the above'. The second most popular choice was Reform's Nigel Farage with 23%, followed by the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, with 19%, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch with 8%, the Lib-Dem's Ed Davey on 6% and the Green's co-leaders, Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay, coming last with 2%. The test for the traditional major political parties will come after these local elections. Reform are likely to be riding high – the Conservatives and Labour will have to dust themselves down and work out just how they reconnect with voters who are at the moment, telling pollsters at least, they are sick of both the traditional main parties.
The Independent
29-04-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
‘Disillusionment' a driver ahead of local elections, says pollster
'Disillusionment' and 'trying to send a signal to the powers that be' will be driving forces in this week's local elections, a pollster has suggested. Voters across parts of England will go to the polls on Thursday to elect councillors, regional mayors, and a new MP in the seat of Runcorn and Helsby. Some 1,641 council seats are up for grabs on May 1, across 23 local authorities, while six mayoralities are also being contested. These are the first major electoral tests for the parties since last July's general election, which saw Labour win a majority of seats in the House of Commons. They will also be an opportunity to examine whether Nigel Farage's Reform UK's surging poll numbers are translating into votes. Luke Tryl, executive director at More in Common, told reporters that 'disillusionment' is a 'primary driver' ahead of the votes. More in Common have been polling the public across areas where there are polls later this week. Mr Tryl explained: 'I don't think I'm exaggerating to say that the groups that we did over the past week are some of the most disillusioned, disappointed, disaffected that we've run. 'There was a real sense that people keep demanding change from politics and they're not getting that change, and that they are as a result not just thinking things are bad, but starting to lose faith in the inability of the system to change things.' Among people who are considering voting Reform, Mr Tryl suggested, there is a feeling of 'we may as well roll the dice on getting something different'. He added: 'This is a disillusionment election, it's also a bit of a rolling the dice election and trying to send a signal to the powers that be election as well.' The winter fuel allowance, disability benefits, and small boat crossings are among the issues that have been raised by voters in focus groups, he said. Local and mayoral contests can reflect attitudes towards neighbourhood concerns such as potholes and bin collections, but they can also be an opportunity to pass verdict on parties' national stances. The by-election in Runcorn and Helsby will see Mr Farage's party trying to overturn Labour's victory last summer. The vote was triggered by Mike Amesbury's decision to stand down rather than face a recall petition after he received a 10-week prison sentence – suspended on appeal – for punching a man. Mr Tryl said that Reform should win the contest if their polling figures are correct. 'In general and given where we are with national polling we would expect that if Reform (…) are matching their current national voting intention that they should take the Runcorn by-election,' he said. If they do not win, Mr Tryl believes it could suggest two things: firstly that enthusiasm for the party is being overstated by polling, or secondly, that their operation of getting people out on polling day is not as good as other parties. 'We know that Labour in particular in general – not always – tends to have a better get out the vote operation on the ground,' Mr Tryl added. New polling released on Tuesday indicated Reform are continuing to lead Labour nationally. New voting intention figures released by YouGov on Tuesday had Mr Farage's party sitting on 26%, one percentage point higher than the 25% they recorded last week. Labour are on 23%, no change from last week, while the Conservatives remained on 20%.
Daily Mail
29-04-2025
- Politics
- Daily Mail
Reform UK could scoop 500 council seats to make Nigel Farage the biggest winner of this week's local elections - but 'deeply pessimistic' voters are withering about ALL the major parties
Reform UK could scoop more than 500 council seats at this week's local elections, according to a leading expert. Nigel Farage 's party have consistently outperformed the Tories in recent national opinion polls and even risen above Labour in some surveys. Luke Tryl, UK director of More In Common, said Reform would be the biggest winner of Thursday's local elections if they performed in line with their current polling. 'One prediction we make with confidence is their gains will be in the hundreds of seats,' the pollster said. He added that a 'good night' for the party would see Reform gain more than 500 seats, making them the largest party from among the seats being contested. Labour are 'likely to lose seats' and Sir Keir Starmer 's hopes of limiting losses to around 20 seats of fewer depends on the extent of tactical voting and fall in support for the Tories, Mr Tryl said. The Conservatives themselves could stem their losses to less than 600 seats on a 'good night', but a 'bad night' could see them shed more than 670 seats, he added. But the pollster warned there was a 'deep sense of pessimism about the state of the country and the world' among voters ahead of Thursday's contests. Mr Tryl revealed the electorate for this year's local elections held a withering verdict of all the major parties, according to More In Common research. He said: 'In focus groups conversations conducted in recent days and weeks, the mood has ranged from resigned to apocalyptic. 'Participants cite local signs of decline - from potholes to homelessness - as symptoms of a wider and deeper problem with Britain. 'While some think it is too early to make a judgement about the new Labour Government, many across the country seem ready to give up on politics altogether.' He added: 'I don't think I'm exaggerating to say that the groups that we did over the past week are some of the most disillusioned, disappointed, disaffected that we've run. 'There was a real sense that people keep demanding change from politics and they're not getting that change, and that they are as a result not just thinking things are bad, but starting to lose faith in the inability of the system to change things.' Among those who are considering voting Reform, Mr Tryl suggested there is a feeling of 'we may as well roll the dice on getting something different'. He added: 'This is a disillusionment election, it's also a bit of a rolling the dice election and trying to send a signal to the powers that be election as well.' The winter fuel allowance, disability benefits, and small boat crossings are among the issues that have been raised by voters in focus groups, he said. Polling by More In Common also revealed how 'none of the above' was a clear winner when Britons were asked which of the party leaders - Sir Keir, Mr Farage and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch - would make the best PM. Some 1,641 council seats are up for grabs on May 1, across 23 local authorities, while six mayoralities are being contested. Thursday will also see a parliamentary by-election held in Runcorn and Helsby, prompted by the resignation of ex-Labour MP Mike Amesbury who was jailed for punching a constituent. Mr Tryl said that Reform should win the contest if their polling figures are correct. 'In general and given where we are with national polling we would expect that if Reform… are matching their current national voting intention that they should take the Runcorn by-election,' he said.
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First Post
22-04-2025
- Politics
- First Post
Far-right Reform UK to beat Labour to be largest party if elections are held today: Survey
Nigel Farage's far-right party Reform UK, which just has five MPs currently, will beat the ruling Labour Party to become the largest party if elections are held today, according to a survey read more If elections would be held today, the far-right Reform UK would beat the ruling Labour Party and emerge as the single-largest party, according to a survey. Currently, the Reform led by Nigel Farage has just five members of parliament. However, the party emerged as a force in last year's British parliamentary elections where it ate into a substantial chunk of Conservative Party's support base and made way for the Labour's landslide victory. Advertisement If elections would be held today, the Reform would win 180 of 650 seats and the Labour and Conservatives would be tied with 165 seats each, according to a survey by More in Common and reported by The Daily Telegraph. This would meant that no party would win a majority and either they would need to enter into a complicated coalition or run a minority government. Reform to gain at Labour's expense Just like the Labour gained at the expense of Conservatives' expense in the 2024 British elections, the Reform would gain at the cost of Labour if elections are held today, according to the More in Common survey. The Labour Party would be headed to a rout as it would lose lose 153 seats to Reform, 64 to the Conservatives, 23 to the Scottish National Party (SNP), and five to independent candidates, as per the survey. As many as nine Labour ministers would lose their seats, including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, Defence Secretary John Healey, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy, Health Secretary Wes Streeting. 'British politics has fragmented to an unprecedented level' Luke Tryl, the UK director of More in Common, told The Telegraph that the British politics has fragmented to an 'unprecedented level'. Tryl further said that the voters' coalition that brought Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer of Labour to power last year has 'splintered Right and Left'. 'Nigel Farage's Reform UK emerges as the biggest winners of this Parliament so far, with our model suggesting that they could well become the largest party in Parliament, something almost unthinkable a year ago. Though the party remains a long way from being able to secure a majority, it is clear Reform's momentum is real and the question is whether their new level of support represents the start of a path to government or a ceiling that Farage's polarising brand finds hard to overcome,' said Tryl. Advertisement Tryl further said that Labour now finds itself 'on the wrong side of a disillusioned electorate' and is at the risk of 'suffering historic losses in its heartlands'.
The Guardian
19-02-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Leftwing activists less likely to work with political rivals than other UK groups, study finds
Leftwing activists in Britain are less likely to work with their political opponents than other groups and more likely to think those holding different views have been misled, a study has found. The study by the polling group More in Common finds that 8-10% of the population, whom they classify under the heading 'progressive activists', hold strikingly different views on a range of issues than the rest of Britain. The research also shows the group is more likely to dislike and criticise those that disagree with them than other voting blocs, a trait the report's authors argue has contributed to the repeated failure of progressive campaigns and the rise of the global far right. Luke Tryl, an executive director at More in Common and co-author of the study, said: 'Progressive activists are the backbone of many of the UK's campaigning organisations and have often been the drivers of social change in the UK. However, their political outlook and approach to bringing about change makes them outliers from much of the wider public and those they are trying to win over. 'In particular this report finds that a tendency to impose purity tests on those they will campaign with, overestimating how many people share their views, and using language that is inaccessible to the wider public is potentially driving a backlash against progressive causes rather than helping them to win people over. 'If the liberal left are going to get back on the front foot it will require a much more deliberate approach to meeting people where they are, and engaging with the old-fashioned work of persuasion, rather than expecting people to be on board with social change from the outset.' More in Common carried out a number of polls, focus groups and one-on-one interviews with more than 1,000 people for its deep dive into progressive activists, the most left-wing of the seven 'tribes', which the company has identified among British voters. The group, which the pollsters define as young, highly educated and socially leftwing, represents about 8% of the population, but is far more represented in certain sectors such as public-sector bodies and charities. Tryl, and his co-author Ed Hodgson, found that on a range of political and cultural issues, this group stands out from every other section of the UK electorate. They are the only group, for example, of whom a majority believes that immigration levels should remain the same or rise, and are far more likely to argue that 'woke culture' has had a benefit on British society than other groups. The authors argue that given this divergence from the rest of the population, it is a particular problem that progressive activists are more likely to misunderstand other voters, criticise them and even refuse to campaign alongside them. Sign up to Headlines UK Get the day's headlines and highlights emailed direct to you every morning after newsletter promotion The polling showed that progressive activists on average believe that 35% of the British public agreed with abolishing the monarchy, when the real number is 18%. They thought a quarter of people would agree with letting more refugees into the country, when the actual figure is 8%. Meanwhile, two-thirds of those polled said they would never be willing to campaign alongside someone who had voted for Reform, while 46% would not do so alongside Conservative voters. In focus groups, the authors found that progressive activists were more likely than other voters to believe their opponents had been misled by misinformation and, possibly as a result, hold a negative view about them. While 72% of progressive activists view leave voters negatively, the same is true of 24% of 'backbone conservatives' – the furthest right of the seven tribes – towards remain voters.
