Reform UK could scoop 500 council seats to make Nigel Farage the biggest winner of this week's local elections - but 'deeply pessimistic' voters are withering about ALL the major parties
Reform UK could scoop more than 500 council seats at this week's local elections, according to a leading expert.
Nigel Farage 's party have consistently outperformed the Tories in recent national opinion polls and even risen above Labour in some surveys.
Luke Tryl, UK director of More In Common, said Reform would be the biggest winner of Thursday's local elections if they performed in line with their current polling.
'One prediction we make with confidence is their gains will be in the hundreds of seats,' the pollster said.
He added that a 'good night' for the party would see Reform gain more than 500 seats, making them the largest party from among the seats being contested.
Labour are 'likely to lose seats' and Sir Keir Starmer 's hopes of limiting losses to around 20 seats of fewer depends on the extent of tactical voting and fall in support for the Tories, Mr Tryl said.
The Conservatives themselves could stem their losses to less than 600 seats on a 'good night', but a 'bad night' could see them shed more than 670 seats, he added.
But the pollster warned there was a 'deep sense of pessimism about the state of the country and the world' among voters ahead of Thursday's contests.
Mr Tryl revealed the electorate for this year's local elections held a withering verdict of all the major parties, according to More In Common research.
He said: 'In focus groups conversations conducted in recent days and weeks, the mood has ranged from resigned to apocalyptic.
'Participants cite local signs of decline - from potholes to homelessness - as symptoms of a wider and deeper problem with Britain.
'While some think it is too early to make a judgement about the new Labour Government, many across the country seem ready to give up on politics altogether.'
He added: 'I don't think I'm exaggerating to say that the groups that we did over the past week are some of the most disillusioned, disappointed, disaffected that we've run.
'There was a real sense that people keep demanding change from politics and they're not getting that change, and that they are as a result not just thinking things are bad, but starting to lose faith in the inability of the system to change things.'
Among those who are considering voting Reform, Mr Tryl suggested there is a feeling of 'we may as well roll the dice on getting something different'.
He added: 'This is a disillusionment election, it's also a bit of a rolling the dice election and trying to send a signal to the powers that be election as well.'
The winter fuel allowance, disability benefits, and small boat crossings are among the issues that have been raised by voters in focus groups, he said.
Polling by More In Common also revealed how 'none of the above' was a clear winner when Britons were asked which of the party leaders - Sir Keir, Mr Farage and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch - would make the best PM.
Some 1,641 council seats are up for grabs on May 1, across 23 local authorities, while six mayoralities are being contested.
Thursday will also see a parliamentary by-election held in Runcorn and Helsby, prompted by the resignation of ex-Labour MP Mike Amesbury who was jailed for punching a constituent.
Mr Tryl said that Reform should win the contest if their polling figures are correct.
'In general and given where we are with national polling we would expect that if Reform… are matching their current national voting intention that they should take the Runcorn by-election,' he said.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Sun
30 minutes ago
- The Sun
Labour put Red Arrows' future at risk by failing to replace ageing Hawk jets, slams Shadow Defence Secretary
LABOUR were accused of putting the Red Arrows future at risk last night by failing to replace their ageing Hawk jets. Shadow Defence Secretary James Cartlidge slammed the government for 'dithering' after The Sun revealed the display team is running out of Hawk T1s. 6 6 6 He said: 'The Sun's revelations on Red Arrow availability show why Labour needs to stop dithering and actually get on with ordering a new RAF training jet. He added: 'They should commit to buying British so that renewal of the Red Arrows supports jobs and investment across the country.' Top Brass admitted the Red Arrows may be forced to cancel air shows to reduce the wear and tear on their surviving aircraft. The Hawk T1s entered service 50 years ago and the factory that made spare parts has closed. Ground crews have been forced to cannibalise parts from old planes to keep the best ones running. RAF sources denied industry claims the fleet could plummet to six working aircraft by 2028. They insisted the Red Arrows could keep 11 aircraft in service until 2030 by scrounging parts from older aircraft. But with a quarter of the fleet in maintenance at any one time, the display team would be unable to fly their trademark Diamond Nine formation. An industry source said the RAF's projections were 'wildly optimistic'. Labour's Strategic Defence Review demanded RAF replace its fleet of Hawk jets as soon as possible. A defence source close to John Healey said: 'We've been clear that we will deliver on all the SDR recommendations, a replacement jet worthy of our iconic Reds is no different.' Incredible moment Red Arrows jets soar over Buckingham Palace in stunning footage captured from inside the cockpit The only British contender is a concept jet known as the Aeralise Fast Jet Trainer. Critics claim Aeralis is Qatari owned and yet to make a prototype. An RAF spokesperson said: 'The Red Arrows will continue to use the Hawk to perform displays and flypasts until their out of service date and have sufficient aircraft in the fleet to do so. 'We continue to work closely with industry partners to ensure an appropriate number of aircraft will be available.' 6 6 6
The Sun
30 minutes ago
- The Sun
Buy-now-pay-later Reeves is bribing voters with baubles as Labour's debt clock racks up and up
GOODBYE the Iron Chancellor, hello the Klarna Chancellor. Rachel Reeves' spending splurge yesterday may have some eye-catching purchases. But it's buy now, pay later as Labour racked up the debt even further. 3 You could hear Nigel Farage breathing down the neck of her Spending Review that saw the Treasury shovel billions out of the door on the never never. Clearly designed to see cranes in the sky and spades in the (electoral battle) ground, Reeves stuck another £113billion on the borrowing tab to try to see off the threat of Reform in the next crucial three years ahead of the election. There was £39billion for affordable homes and another £14billion for the first nuclear power station to be built in a generation. The £7billion prison-building project should be welcomed, as long as the judges actually fill them with violent thugs rather than online mums publishing stupid tweets. Bribe and cajole But voters will be wary of the £16billion in transport upgrades outside of the South East — what you might call levelling up — having heard these promises before, only to see them paused, scrapped and delayed again and again. And let's hope none of the above projects over-run on their budget — like pretty much every other major government infrastructure initiative has in the past 40 years. I couldn't help thinking Reeves' speech yesterday was the most she had ever sounded like Gordon Brown, torturing a dreary mantra that these were 'Labour choices' as she sought to bribe and cajole voters with baubles while the debt clock racked up and up. But we all know what happened to Brown when the music stopped . . . While the bond markets were steady last night after Donald Trump struck a trade deal with China, these things can go south very quickly, so it's far from clear if this spending gamble will pay off for Reeves. As former Cabinet Secretary Simon Case told The Sun this week: 'The nation's credit card is maxed out.' Top 5 takeaways from Spending review He warned: 'Just like when you're at home and you've got your credit card or your mortgage, you have to pay for that debt. 'So the debt interest that we're paying on the nation's credit card, if you actually put it out like it was a government department, it would be one of the biggest government departments by spending. 'It's taking up huge amounts of our money.' The Institute for Fiscal Studies put the extra borrowing Reeves has undertaken since taking over at No11 at £140billion, with more than £105billion of taxpayers' cash alone this year going on interest payments. To tackle this, Case directly urged Reeves this week to 'put the squeeze' on public spending or face a debt crisis and a lack of confidence in the UK's financial system with horrific effects. 3 So were there any cuts, or restraint of any real note yesterday? Of course there was the obligatory three per cent rise in NHS spending over the next three years as more pound notes poured into that seemingly indeterminable black hole. While NHS chiefs were crowing yesterday that they had 'done well' out of the settlement, they were already pumping out mood music that it might not be enough. Yet by 2029, the NHS annual budget will be just short of a quarter of a trillion pounds a year at £226billion. When will it ever be enough? And where are the promised reforms to the system that would rid us of this endless gimme, gimme, gimme cycle? Also, £9billon in efficiency savings for the NHS were proposed yesterday, with scarce details on the how, but already experts are pouring cold water on even that small sum being hit. Labour promised to get a grip on the NHS, and warned that more money would not be the answer. Another election promise that has turned to dust. As has Labour's pledge to end the use of migrant hotels within 12 months of taking power. That has now been downgraded to 'by the end of this Parliament' — at a cost of nearly £5billion until then. Smoke and mirrors Even by 2029, the Government will still be spending more than £2billion a year accommodating visitors, just not in hotels. So behind the smoke and mirrors of Reeves' speech to MPs, that isn't really a cut. And the continued costs of the heaving asylum bill dwarfs any of the departmental savings unveiled yesterday. Reeves was keen to stress no return to the days of austerity, and her tinkering on Whitehall budgets was about the only part of her speech yesterday that matched her rhetoric. The £1.5billion to be shaved off total departmental spending in the next three years pales in comparison to her extra spending elsewhere. Just over £14billion being spent this year, down to £12.6billion in three years' time. Hardly putting on the squeeze. GDP at 2.7trillion . . . Let's hope the Chancellor doesn't need a major rainy day fund anytime soon, or she really will be the new Gordon Brown.
The Independent
41 minutes ago
- The Independent
Roll up, roll up for the Rachel Reeves buy now, pay later spending review
It was the Klarna spending review. (If you're wondering what I'm on about, please do bear with me.) Klarna, you see, is the buy now, pay later shopping app beloved by zoomers, which offers the opportunity to pay for your shopping in 30 days or three monthly instalments, depending on your status and the shop you're buying from. The problem with it is that it is a marvellous way of building up bills, debts, and big problems that will come back to bite you if you're not careful. This is the principal issue with the government's spending review. Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered big number after big number. 'Labour choices', she declared, to get Britain moving again. Billions will be pumped into clean energy, carbon capture and nuclear power. There will be extra cash for the NHS. Defence spending is being pushed up to 2.6 per cent of GDP, if one includes the extra money for the spooks. There's more money for free school meals and to fix crumbling classrooms. A veritable treasure chest. And, as we already know, the decision to means-test the pensioners' winter fuel payment was (largely) reversed so that 75 per cent of them will now get it. However, at the same time, Reeves made clear that she planned to stick by her fiscal rules that say day-to-day spending must be paid for by tax receipts. There should be no current account deficit. Now, it is true that a big chunk of what was announced (or re-announced) will be covered by extra borrowing. Per those rules, she is allowed to borrow to invest, which covers things like energy and the announcements on rail, prisons and social housing. There is a lot of borrowing going towards this new investment spending – some £140bn. However, borrowing to invest is generally considered to be good borrowing. There is a caveat. To make it work, those investments need to produce an economic return. Will the government's plans do that? That is a very big – and open – question. The NHS, schools, policing, defence, local government and more are largely covered by day-to-day spending. Here, things are going to be less cheerful than Reeves would have us believe, except for the review's clear winners, health and defence. 'To make sense of today's spending review, you need to understand what the government is calling Phase One and Phase Two. Phase One is last year and this year, 2024-25 and 2025-26,' the non-partisan number crunchers at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) explained. 'Phase Two starts next year, 2026-27, covers the rest of the parliament, and is the focus of today's announcements. Take Phase One and Phase Two together, as the government does, and growth in government spending looks rather strong. Take Phase Two only and things look tighter.' So far, so familiar. It doesn't matter which party they come from; chancellors always quote big numbers that apply a glossy coat of paint to their speeches in the House of Commons, while leaving the gritty reality to the swathe of accompanying documents. It is pushing it to describe what the IFS found in those documents concerning Phase Two as austerity 2.0. But it still looks set to get rather chilly for several departments, potentially enough to draw blood. Even the schools budget is being frozen in real terms, at least if you strip out the extra for free school meals. Now consider what happens when future pay settlements are factored in. There may be trouble ahead. So where does Klarna come in? None of this changes the chancellor's big problem, namely the amount of fiscal headroom she has within those rules. There is barely any. But there were no announcements on any tax changes, because they are saved for the autumn Budget. Last year, this was unveiled at the end of October. If Reeves holds to form, this year's will be with us in just over three months' time. Watch the government's monthly borrowing figures carefully from now on. The recent ones have made for difficult reading for the chancellor. UK Plc has been writing many more IOUs than she would like, and than the economists expected. The progress of the economy hasn't been terrible, but it has hardly been going gangbusters, to quote the previous PM. Reeves had a lot of fun brandishing big numbers and blowing (not undeserved) raspberries at the opposition. But unless the economy or those borrowing figures improve quite significantly, her next big event will not be anything like as much fun for her, and especially not for us.
