Latest news with #MSCIAll-CountryWorldIndex
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Market Minute 6-4-25- Swticheroo in Play as Global Stocks Hit Highs, US Lags
Markets are relatively quiet so far, with stocks, gold, and crude oil all mostly flat. Treasuries are rallying modestly, though, while the dollar is dipping. We have a switcheroo in major markets. Led by strong performance in non-US equities, the MSCI All-Country World Index just tagged 888.24 – topping its previous February peak of 887.72. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is beating the S&P 500 by the widest margin on record. In the Americas, all major indices are outperforming the S&P 500 handily, with benchmark indices in Canada up 6.8%, Brazil up 14.3%, and Mexico up 16.4%. To get a FREE copy of the complete MoneyShow 2025 Top Picks Report, click HERE.) This chart shows the performance of the iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF (ACWX) compared to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). The former holds more than 1,700 non-US stocks, with the highest weighting in names like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), Tencent Holdings Ltd. (TCEHY), and SAP SE (SAP). As you can see, ACWX has gained just under 15% so far in 2025, compared with only 1.7% for the SPY. This is a big week for job market data – and today's ADP number didn't exactly excite Wall Street. The private payroll company said the US economy added just 37,000 jobs in May. That was down from 60,000 a month prior and FAR below the average forecast of 115,000. Official Labor Department numbers are due out Friday morning. See also: CTRI: A Utility Play That Just Landed Large, New Contracts In other news, US-China trade disagreements keep festering. President Trump called Chinese President Xi Jinping 'extremely hard to make a deal with' in a social media post overnight. Hoped-for talks between the two leaders still haven't happened. Meanwhile, China's crackdown on exports of rare-earth metals is threatening manufacturers here in the US. Auto companies are particularly vulnerable, especially those who are titling more toward Electric Vehicle (EV) production. Those vehicles need rare-earth magnets to function and sourcing them from China has become much more difficult. More From SPX: Yes, We Could Finish 2025 at 6,600 Given Earnings, AI Growth Earnings, Jobs Data to Drive Next Market Moves Market Minute 6/3/25: Wet-Blanket Forecasts Weigh on Markets
Business Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
How the US market fell from 4th to 41st for returns – and what it means for stocks in 2025
NEARLY two months after US President Donald Trump roiled markets with his on-again, off-again 'reciprocal' tariffs and universal 10 per cent levy, uncertainty remains. My last column showed the illogic underpinning this – and counselled patience. Here is an update – and how to profit. Trump says America 'wins' through his tariffs, reclaiming 'lost' manufacturing jobs and cutting the trade deficit. No. Tariffs always hammer most the one who imposes them. Don't take my word for it. Look to the markets. For any good capitalist, this is step one. Markets are a lie detector, weighing talk, forecasts and opinions – and rendering verdicts. Non-US stocks were up 8.8 per cent this year to May 22. The Straits Times Index gained 4.9 per cent, a hair's breadth from all-time highs. China? Up 10 per cent. European stocks rose 13.7 per cent. Mexico, up 20.7 per cent. US stocks? Down 5.5 per cent – a striking lag. If we look at it another way: Of the 47 MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI) nations, America was 41st in the ranking of countries by their year-to-date returns as at May 22. In the same period last year, America was fourth – with its 28.8 per cent return fully seven percentage points ahead of the ACWI. Why did US stocks go from No 4 to 41? The answer is No 47; the 47th president, that is. Trump's vacillations make funds flee America. Markets know that attempts to reduce the trade deficit are senseless. A trade deficit means a capital account surplus by definition – that capital is foreign investment in the US. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Why would reversing that be desirable? Why would the government intervening to favour American firms, instead of letting free markets sort out the most efficient use of capital, be considered positive? Why would policy that seemingly changes on a whim be considered good? Stocks are seeing through the smoke and mirrors. America's lag tells you those things are bad, not good. My last column noted how Trump justified his 90-day reciprocal tariff pause on Apr 9 on the grounds that some 75 nations sought deals. Many claimed that this revealed Trump's true aim. The president's fans could say that tariffs, confusion and uncertainty are solely a leverage to strike a flurry of deals – delivering even freer trade. However, the markets are looking at reality, not armchair psychobabble. Deals to make more deals Since Apr 9, just two tariff 'deals' have emerged – one with Britain and one with China. Both are fluff. Britain's is a one-year, non-binding agreement to mitigate tariffs until a full trade deal happens. A deal to make a deal. It affects only a handful of industries. Crucially, the 10 per cent universal levy remains on most UK goods, just like for those from Singapore. America's China deal looks bigger, but only because the bar was incredibly low. Yes, it cut 145 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods to 30 per cent, while China dropped retaliatory levies from 125 per cent to 10 per cent. However, the 'deal' lasts only 90 days and effectively just buys time. Another deal to make a deal. Plus, tariffs on China remain 30 percentage points higher than in January. Both countries are worse off, but especially America. Who wins from this? Maybe Singapore, via re-exporting. On May 16, Trump flip-flopped again. Boasting that 150 nations now seek 'deals', he said that there isn't time to negotiate them all. His 'solution'? Telling nations what rates they will pay – and offering chances to appeal. Didn't he already do that on 'Liberation Day' on Apr 2? How will it work? Will rates be higher, lower or the same as those on Apr 2? He did not say, further fanning uncertainty. Then, days later, he threatened the European Union with new 50 per cent tariffs – and 25 per cent on Apple products. More uncertainty. Meanwhile, legal challenges to Trump's tariffs progress. Maybe real deals will come that will actually lower trade barriers and uncertainty – a huge potential upside. Then again, maybe not. But as my last column said, even if all tariffs return, the pain will be less than feared – which will be bullish for markets. Importers can readily skirt America's understaffed, overwhelmed tariff-collecting Customs and Border Protection staff via both illegal and legal means. The latter include 'tariff splitting' – stripping out services-related costs such as marketing to reduce goods' values – or storing imports in bonded warehouses. Or, shipping in goods that are valued to be under US$800. And myriad illegal ways such as misclassifying and undervaluing goods. Or, as mentioned, exporters can 'tranship' or re-export via lower-tariff nations – such as Singapore. This is why China's April exports didn't tank despite shipments to America tumbling 21 per cent. South-east Asia gobbled up the difference – and shipped them on. It drove Singapore's huge, 113 per cent year-on-year spike in April re-exports to America. Vietnam and Taiwan are seeing similar surges. Shippers could further tap Canada or Mexico, gaming the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement's tariff exemption. Hence, while April's total tariff collections rose, they missed administration forecasts by 75 per cent. That will persist. Happily, fear exceeds the negative effects, especially outside America. For investors, that is a recipe for a bull market – with non-US stocks continuing to lead. The writer is the founder, executive chairman and co-chief investment officer of Fisher Investments, an independent investment adviser serving both individual and institutional investors globally
Yahoo
28-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Path of Least Resistance for Stocks Is Higher, Barclays Says
(Bloomberg) -- Investor exposure to equities is still low enough that the 'path of least resistance' for the market is higher, according to strategists at Barclays Plc. NY Wins Order Against US Funding Freeze in Congestion Fight The team led by Emmanuel Cau said institutional investors weren't a big part of the stock rebound in May, with positioning remaining broadly underweight. Absent a volatility shock, 'systematic buying could continue to help equities to grind higher,' Cau wrote in a note. The MSCI All-Country World Index has rallied 5.7% in May, tracking its best month since November 2023, as global trade tensions eased. Still, risk appetite was dented last week by investor concerns around the US fiscal deficit. All eyes are now on Nvidia Corp.'s earnings report, due later Wednesday, for clues on demand for artificial intelligence, which has powered much of the rally in tech megacap stocks. US-domiciled investors sold domestic stocks and bought international equities in May, Cau said, although the 'sell America' trade is largely concentrated in the dollar and bonds. Meanwhile, repatriation into Europe has paused with limited selling of US assets by European investors. Cau correctly predicted earlier this month that a de-escalation in the US-China trade war would boost stocks. Mark Zuckerberg Loves MAGA Now. Will MAGA Ever Love Him Back? Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Why Apple Still Hasn't Cracked AI Inside the First Stargate AI Data Center How Coach Handbags Became a Gen Z Status Symbol ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
New York Post
27-05-2025
- Business
- New York Post
How US stocks have flopped in 2025 – falling out of the Top 40 worldwide – because of Trump's tariffs
US stocks have fallen out of the Top 40 with investors worldwide this year – and chart watchers can blame President Trump's flip-flopping song and dance on tariffs. This year through May 20, Chinese stocks are up 19.9% while neighboring South Korea's are up 14.3%. Europe's are up 22.3% including Germany's, which are up 20%. Mexico's, for the love of avocados, are up 27%. Altogether, non-US stocks are up 15.5%. The S&P 500? It's barely in positive territory – up just 1.2%. Of the 47 MSCI All-Country World Index countries, America's year-to-date return ranks No. 41. Advertisement How did US stocks drop from platinum and gold to the bargain bins? Take a look at Trump's on-and-off, whack-and-forth approach to trade taxes. My April 21 column detailed Trump's tariff illogic and why tariffs always hurt the imposing country most. A week after 'Liberation Day' on April 2, the White House on April 9 issued a 90-day reciprocal tariff pause. Since then, just two tariff 'deals' emerged—Britain and China. But at the end of the day, these are deals to make a deal – little more. In the case of the UK, the deal is one-year only, non-binding, easily cancelled and affects only a few items–until a full trade deal can be made. Meanwhile, most prior UK tariffs roll on. Advertisement 5 President Donald Trump delivers remarks at the annual National Memorial Day Observance in the Memorial Amphitheater at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Virginia, May 26, 2025. REUTERS As for China, pundits were enthused about the deal, but it merely lowered the tariffs to 30% – far below the absurd 145% levy that amounted to an effective embargo – but still substantially higher than January's. This also was yet another deal to make a deal in 90 days. Neither deal, otherwise, is worth the paper it's printed on. On May 16, Trump flip-flopped yet again. Boasting that 150 nations wanted 'deals,' the president said he didn't have time to negotiate them while he was jetting off to the Middle East. His 'solution'? Telling all nations he'd tell them next week what rates they will pay – supposedly 'very fair' ones – and offering some countries chances to appeal. Advertisement Didn't he already do just that on 'Liberation Day' How did that work? And how will this work? He doesn't say, further fanning uncertainty. 5 Trump's on-and-off, whack-and-forth approach to trade policy has seen US stocks fall out of the Top 40 in the world. Getty Images Maybe real deals come, actually lowering trade barriers and uncertainty – a huge potential upside. Maybe not. Either way, as I noted in April's column, there are reasons to be bullish here, although they're not among the major White House talking points. Advertisement Importers, for one, can readily skirt America's understaffed, overwhelmed tariff collecting Customs and Border Protection crew via both illegal and legal means. The latter include 'tariff splitting' – stripping out services-related costs like marketing to reduce goods' values. Or storing imports in bonded warehouses. Or shipping in values under $800. And hundreds of illegal ways like misclassifying, undervaluing goods. 5 Importers can readily skirt understaffed, overwhelmed tariff Customs and Border Protection staff via illegal and legal means. Getty Images There's also, for example, 'transshipping,' which underpins China's tumbling exports here while southeast Asia's surge, like Vietnam's 34% year-over-year spike – while China's total exports keep growing. Some importers opt for 'masquerading' through Canada or Mexico, gaming the USMCA tariff exemption. Hence, while April's total tariff collections rose to $16.3 billion, they missed White House forecasts by 75%. That will continue as importers implement more skirting strategies. In the meantime, all of the uncertainty is hammering America hardest in all sorts of ways. What seems confusing here can register as beyond belief overseas. Stocks hate rising uncertainty – always. (Despite my Republican disappointment, I am pleased that my January column correctly predicted European stocks leading this year's bull market. As my 1950s childhood hero and New York's wisest Yogi ever said, 'It ain't bragging if you really did it.') 5 April's total tariff collections rose to $16.3 billion, but they missed White House forecasts by 75%. AFP via Getty Images Advertisement What comes next with tariffs? Who knows – maybe not even President Trump. Are we making America great again? We're No. 41! Kinda like California's relative school test scores – or most economic outcomes there nowadays. On the positive side: Even if all tariffs return, the pain will be less than feared – which is bullish. What to do? As I advised at the start of 2025: Be patient, and enjoy the bull market overseas for now. Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, a four-time New York Times bestselling author, and regular columnist in 21 countries globally.
Yahoo
02-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
BofA's Hartnett says US payrolls are key for recession playbook
(Bloomberg) — Investors are now betting on a more market-friendly stance from President Donald Trump in the coming months, and fears about a US recession could diminish further if Friday's key jobs report shows resilience, according to Bank of America Corp's (BAC) Michael Hartnett. NJ Transit Urges Commuters to Work Remotely If Union Strikes NYC Lost $9 Billion of Income to Miami, Palm Beach in Five Years New York City Transit System Chips Away at Subway Fare Evasion NYC's MTA to Cut Costs Instead of Borrowing More to Fund Upgrades NYC's Congestion Toll Raised $159 Million in the First Quarter The strategist said market players were wagering on a 'lower tariffs, lower rates and lower taxes' scenario. A big easing in financial conditions, combined with robust spending on artificial intelligence, would allay growth concerns 'so long as payrolls don't crack,' he said. Hartnett reiterated his preference for international equities this year. US stocks have recovered in the past two weeks on optimism that the US would engage in trade negotiations with key partners. However, weaker-than-expected economic data have kept sentiment shaky. On Friday, economists expect the jobs report to show a deceleration in nonfarm payrolls growth. American assets have emerged as one of the biggest laggards after Trump imposed sweeping levies last month. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is down 4.7% this year, while the MSCI All-Country World Index excluding the US rallied 7.4% through Thursday. Still, Hartnett said that for every $100 of inflow in US equities since the November presidential election, only $5 dollars have been redeemed in the past three weeks. European stocks have remained in favor, with inflows of about $3.4 billion in the week through April 30, according to the BofA note citing EPFR Global data. —With assistance from Michael Msika. Made-in-USA Wheelbarrows Promoted by Trump Are Now Made in China 100 Moments You Might Have Missed From Trump's First 100 Days As More Women Lift Weights, Gyms Might Never Be the Same Can the Labubu Doll Craze Survive Trump's Tariffs? Healthy Sodas Like Poppi, Olipop Are Drawing PepsiCo's and Coca-Cola's Attention ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy Sign in to access your portfolio
