Latest news with #MSCIAsia
Straits Times
03-08-2025
- Business
- Straits Times
Cracking the value problem in corporate Asia
SINGAPORE – Despite their commanding positions in local markets and even global niches, Asian corporates still trade at substantial valuation discounts to their US peers. The core issue – they generate lower returns on equity (ROE), reflecting less efficient use of shareholder capital. MSCI Asia's five-year average ROE is 10 per cent, whereas MSCI US' is over 19 per cent. This value gap stems from a web of interlocking issues, including corporate governance gaps, inefficient capital allocation and unfocused balance sheets with non-core assets that drag returns. In South-east Asia, the 'conglomerate discount' is well-known – Bain calculates that investors discount the value of large conglomerates by about 7 per cent to 43 per cent versus the sum of their parts.
Economic Times
26-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Don't short this market; better days ahead post tariff resolution: Ajay Bagga
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel "So far, there have been broad disappointments—except perhaps refining margins, which have performed better. But overall, margins have declined across most sectors. Even in banking, we've seen higher provisions and lower margins due to rate cuts. So overall: disappointing earnings, high valuations, and unsupportive global cues—that's the current story of the Indian markets ," says Ajay Bagga , Market three major factors were pressuring the Indian markets on Friday. If we look globally, markets were down—MSCI Asia closed 1% lower, MSCI Europe, midway through the session, was down about 0.6%, and MSCI Emerging Markets were down 0.7%. So, the correction was reason behind this is, firstly, the strong recovery from April onwards. We saw a dip approaching the July deadlines, which were then rolled over to August 1st. As we approach that date, markets are reacting to the heavy news flow expected next week, including the Fed meeting and the August 1st deadline. Global markets are a bit cautious, and Indian markets are reflecting this is the fourth consecutive week of decline for the Nifty , largely driven by FPI selling, which is more due to valuation concerns. Nifty's one-year forward P/E is still around 23.5 times. The expectation was that, given last year's slowdown from March to September, this year's June YoY numbers would benefit from the base effect, and we'd see double-digit overall earnings growth—but that hasn't far, there have been broad disappointments—except perhaps refining margins, which have performed better. But overall, margins have declined across most sectors. Even in banking, we've seen higher provisions and lower margins due to rate cuts. So overall: disappointing earnings, high valuations, and unsupportive global cues—that's the current story of the Indian a confusing market. Let me give you two quick pharma. Despite President Trump promising tariffs on pharma by the end of the week, we saw a rally in the sector on Friday. That's puzzling, as pharma is one of the sectors most at risk this look at the broader market: ₹1.5 lakh crore worth of shares have been offloaded by promoters and PE funds with minimal impact cost. The market has absorbed it. The primary market is in a frenzy—we are headed for a historic high in fundraises. The QIP for the biggest bank came in at ₹25,000 crore and attracted bids worth over ₹1 lakh there's ample liquidity and appetite. Retail investors are providing an exit to FPIs. It's a bipolar market—retailers are buying while institutions are exiting, and that sentiment is keeping the market resilient. When this sentiment shifts—and a big trigger could be the India-US tariff announcement expected around mid to late August—there could be a major FPI short squeeze (currently 85% net short).So, I wouldn't recommend shorting this market. I'd recommend having faith in it. We'll see better days once the uncertainty around US tariffs is the UK FTA, the UK Parliament has approved it, but it may take a year to implement. So, let's wait and see. It'll benefit labour-intensive sectors like textiles, leather, gems and jewellery, small machinery, chemicals, organics, and seafood. Indian professionals working in the UK on short-term visas could save an estimated ₹4,000 crore annually—a significant it's a positive development, but the markets haven't reacted much yet—possibly because implementation details are still unclear, and the UK Parliament has yet to finalise surprising how auto stocks started moving up mid-week. I was taken aback because the fundamentals are quite weak. Demand is suffering. The only bright spots are tractors and possibly India, there's a divide: urban consumption is still challenged, while rural consumption is relatively strong. So, auto companies that cater to rural markets will do better. Tractor sales are expected to cross 1 million this year—that's a good sign, and we should see better margins for tractor motorcycles—are mostly sold in semi-urban and rural areas (60-70%). They should perform well. Once the harvest season arrives in October, we could see further the rest of the segment is under pressure. We're facing risks from Chinese rare earth exports—EV production has already been cut in July and could halt in August if we don't get essential components like top of that, the Trump tariffs—25% on auto and auto ancillaries—are already in place. Global auto majors like Volvo, Volkswagen, Stellantis, and GM have each estimated earnings hits between $500 million and $1 billion due to these tariffs. So, it's hard to see how smaller Indian players will escape the fallout.I wouldn't bet on the auto segment just yet—unless India secures a carve-out similar to Japan's 15% tariff. If we get that, auto stocks could rally. But as of now, it's a binary and difficult decision. Fundamentals are weak, but news flow could flip the I'd say: start nibbling slowly, but wait till August. Once there's more clarity on India's tariff treatment, especially from the US, we'll have a better sense of direction.
Time of India
26-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Don't short this market; better days ahead post tariff resolution: Ajay Bagga
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel "So far, there have been broad disappointments—except perhaps refining margins, which have performed better. But overall, margins have declined across most sectors. Even in banking, we've seen higher provisions and lower margins due to rate cuts. So overall: disappointing earnings, high valuations, and unsupportive global cues—that's the current story of the Indian markets ," says Ajay Bagga , Market three major factors were pressuring the Indian markets on Friday. If we look globally, markets were down—MSCI Asia closed 1% lower, MSCI Europe, midway through the session, was down about 0.6%, and MSCI Emerging Markets were down 0.7%. So, the correction was reason behind this is, firstly, the strong recovery from April onwards. We saw a dip approaching the July deadlines, which were then rolled over to August 1st. As we approach that date, markets are reacting to the heavy news flow expected next week, including the Fed meeting and the August 1st deadline. Global markets are a bit cautious, and Indian markets are reflecting this is the fourth consecutive week of decline for the Nifty , largely driven by FPI selling, which is more due to valuation concerns. Nifty's one-year forward P/E is still around 23.5 times. The expectation was that, given last year's slowdown from March to September, this year's June YoY numbers would benefit from the base effect, and we'd see double-digit overall earnings growth—but that hasn't far, there have been broad disappointments—except perhaps refining margins, which have performed better. But overall, margins have declined across most sectors. Even in banking, we've seen higher provisions and lower margins due to rate cuts. So overall: disappointing earnings, high valuations, and unsupportive global cues—that's the current story of the Indian a confusing market. Let me give you two quick pharma. Despite President Trump promising tariffs on pharma by the end of the week, we saw a rally in the sector on Friday. That's puzzling, as pharma is one of the sectors most at risk this look at the broader market: ₹1.5 lakh crore worth of shares have been offloaded by promoters and PE funds with minimal impact cost. The market has absorbed it. The primary market is in a frenzy—we are headed for a historic high in fundraises. The QIP for the biggest bank came in at ₹25,000 crore and attracted bids worth over ₹1 lakh there's ample liquidity and appetite. Retail investors are providing an exit to FPIs. It's a bipolar market—retailers are buying while institutions are exiting, and that sentiment is keeping the market resilient. When this sentiment shifts—and a big trigger could be the India-US tariff announcement expected around mid to late August—there could be a major FPI short squeeze (currently 85% net short).So, I wouldn't recommend shorting this market. I'd recommend having faith in it. We'll see better days once the uncertainty around US tariffs is the UK FTA, the UK Parliament has approved it, but it may take a year to implement. So, let's wait and see. It'll benefit labour-intensive sectors like textiles, leather, gems and jewellery, small machinery, chemicals, organics, and seafood. Indian professionals working in the UK on short-term visas could save an estimated ₹4,000 crore annually—a significant it's a positive development, but the markets haven't reacted much yet—possibly because implementation details are still unclear, and the UK Parliament has yet to finalise surprising how auto stocks started moving up mid-week. I was taken aback because the fundamentals are quite weak. Demand is suffering. The only bright spots are tractors and possibly India, there's a divide: urban consumption is still challenged, while rural consumption is relatively strong. So, auto companies that cater to rural markets will do better. Tractor sales are expected to cross 1 million this year—that's a good sign, and we should see better margins for tractor motorcycles—are mostly sold in semi-urban and rural areas (60-70%). They should perform well. Once the harvest season arrives in October, we could see further the rest of the segment is under pressure. We're facing risks from Chinese rare earth exports—EV production has already been cut in July and could halt in August if we don't get essential components like top of that, the Trump tariffs—25% on auto and auto ancillaries—are already in place. Global auto majors like Volvo, Volkswagen, Stellantis, and GM have each estimated earnings hits between $500 million and $1 billion due to these tariffs. So, it's hard to see how smaller Indian players will escape the fallout.I wouldn't bet on the auto segment just yet—unless India secures a carve-out similar to Japan's 15% tariff. If we get that, auto stocks could rally. But as of now, it's a binary and difficult decision. Fundamentals are weak, but news flow could flip the I'd say: start nibbling slowly, but wait till August. Once there's more clarity on India's tariff treatment, especially from the US, we'll have a better sense of direction.
Business Recorder
16-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
India's benchmarks settle flat
MUMBAI: India's benchmark shares closed flat on Wednesday as gains in public sector banks following State Bank of India's fundraise approval offset losses in metal stocks due to a stronger dollar on rising US inflation. The Nifty 50 rose 0.06% to 25,212.05, while the Sensex gained 0.08% to 82,634.48. Both benchmarks fell about 0.2% during the session, before erasing losses in afternoon trade. Asian peers inched lower, with the MSCI Asia ex Japan index dropping 0.3% after data showed a modest rise in US inflation, dampening hopes of imminent rate cuts and posing risks for capital flows into emerging markets such as India. 'Markets have had a strong run from March to June. But with uncertainty around the US-India trade deal and mixed signals from the earnings season, we expect benchmarks to remain range-bound in the near term,' said Amnish Aggarwal, director of research, institutional equities at PL Capital.
Business Recorder
16-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
India's benchmarks settle flat as gains in state-owned lenders offset metals losses
India's benchmark shares closed flat on Wednesday as gains in public sector banks following State Bank of India's fundraise approval offset losses in metal stocks due to a stronger dollar on rising U.S. inflation. The Nifty 50 rose 0.06% to 25,212.05, while the Sensex gained 0.08% to 82,634.48. Both benchmarks fell about 0.2% during the session, before erasing losses in afternoon trade. Asian peers inched lower, with the MSCI Asia ex Japan index dropping 0.3% after data showed a modest rise in U.S. inflation, dampening hopes of imminent rate cuts and posing risks for capital flows into emerging markets such as India. 'Markets have had a strong run from March to June. But with uncertainty around the U.S.-India trade deal and mixed signals from the earnings season, we expect benchmarks to remain range-bound in the near term,' said Amnish Aggarwal, director of research, institutional equities at PL Capital. India's HCLTech slides on lower annual operating margin forecast Global brokerage Bernstein echoed that view, retaining its year-end Nifty target of 26,500 — about 5% above current levels — and forecasting short-term consolidation. Nine of the 13 major sectors logged gains. The broader small-caps and mid-caps traded flat. The PSU Bank index climbed 1.8%, led by about 2% gain in SBI, which approved raising up to 200 billion rupees via bonds for fiscal 2026. The metal index fell 0.5% after the U.S. dollar rose. A stronger dollar makes commodities costlier for holders of other currencies. Among individual stocks, ITC Hotels surged 4.5% after reporting a quarterly profit rise. Network18 Media & Investments climbed 13.3%, lifting the media index 1.3% higher, after it reported turning a profit following 12 quarters of losses. HDB Financial lost 3.1% after posting a profit drop in the June quarter, hurt by higher bad loan provisions.
