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Time of India
22-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India seen as safe haven amid global trade jitters, to lead 2025 growth: JP Morgan
India has emerged as a relatively safe haven among emerging markets amid ongoing global trade uncertainties, according to a recent report by JP Morgan. The financial major said India is benefiting from a combination of falling inflation, improved system liquidity, and reduced government borrowing—factors that are expected to support economic expansion, ANI reported. 'India: Falling inflation, enhanced system liquidity and lower borrowing to boost growth. Timely demand stimulus and support to urban household balance sheet,' the report noted. JP Morgan projected that India will record the highest GDP growth among all countries in its global universe in 2025. Growth is also being aided by demand-side stimulus and improving urban household finances. Additionally, a favourable monsoon and a rebound in the rural economy are contributing to the positive outlook. The report highlighted that India currently holds a 19 per cent weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index and has been assigned an 'Overweight' (OW) rating by the firm. Alongside India, JP Morgan's EM strategists remain constructive on Korea, Brazil, the Philippines, UAE, Greece, and Poland. While EM equities have witnessed substantial outflows since August 2023, the trend has recently reversed, with fresh inflows reflecting rising investor confidence. On the valuation front, the MSCI EM Index is trading on the cheaper side of fair value compared to developed markets. The report also noted that foreign exchange trends remain key to EM equity performance, as EM equities typically perform inversely to the US dollar. The recent weakening of the dollar—especially following tariff-related announcements—could further benefit EM assets. A positive shift in earnings forecast revisions was also highlighted. After prolonged downgrades over the past couple of years, the forecast revision index for EMs versus developed markets has started moving upward, pointing to a more optimistic earnings outlook. India's year-to-date (YTD) performance stands at 5.8 per cent in local currency terms and 5.7 per cent in US dollar terms. Though not among the top EM performers by absolute return, India's stability and economic trajectory continue to make it attractive for long-term investors. Overall, JP Morgan said improving macro fundamentals and supportive external conditions make India a market to watch among emerging economies. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
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Business Standard
08-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Promoter holdings private listed firms drops 600 bps to 37% since 2021
A quiet shift is reshaping India's markets as promoters reduce their stakes in companies at an unprecedented pace. Promoter holdings in the top 200 privately owned listed companies have fallen by nearly 600 basis points (bps): from 43 per cent in FY21 to 37 per cent by the end of FY25. This decline is largely driven by promoter share sales through block deals, with domestic mutual funds (MFs) absorbing most of the supply. Between FY21 and FY25, MF holdings in BSE 200 companies rose by 360 bps to 10.9 per cent, while foreign portfolio investor (FPI) holdings dropped by 420 bps to 24.4 per cent. According to Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE), this shift reflects promoters capitalising on high valuations, with MFs stepping in as 'price-agnostic' buyers. 'Retail households, through institutional investors, have bought at the expense of FPIs and insiders,' said KIE in a note, highlighting sustained inflows into domestic institutional investors (DIIs) despite FPI outflows. During the first half of calendar year 2025, DIIs pumped in Rs 3.5 trillion into listed stocks, up from Rs 2.4 trillion during the same period last year. FPIs were net sellers of more than Rs 82,000 crore during the first half. The flows have bolstered the Indian market's ability to absorb large stake sales. Earlier this year, British American Tobacco (BAT) and Singtel sold shares worth nearly Rs 13,000 crore each in ITC and Bharti Airtel, respectively. Lower promoter holdings have increased the free-float market capitalisation (mcap) of Indian equities, boosting India's weight in global benchmarks like the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) index. By June 2025, India's weight in the MSCI EM index reached 18.12%, up from less than 8 per cent in 2021, trailing only China, which is at 28.4 per cent. Historically, India's free float —shares held by non-promoters — has lagged behind global peers like the US, UK, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Brazil, and Singapore. Typically, in the developed world, the free float mcap is above 90 per cent. The recent decline aligns India's free float more closely with Asian peers like South Korea, Brazil, and Taiwan. Interestingly, the overall private promoter ownership edged higher by almost 11.6 percentage points between June 2010 to December 2021. It then hit a downward slope amid a sustained rise in domestic equities. KIE's analysis suggests promoters have timed stake sales to capitalise on high Nifty valuations, with sales peaking during periods of elevated market prices. Currently, the Nifty 50 index trades at 22x its estimated earnings for the next 12 months, higher than the historical average of 20x. Changing Dynamics Promoters have sold stakes worth Rs 3.6 trillion since 2021 Promoter selling (Rs cr) 2019 24,400 2020 77,100 2021 67,000 2022 38,800 2023 100,700 2024 89,100 H12025 59,900 MFs have absorbed a significant portion of promoter stake sale Mar-21 Mar-25 Change (%) Promoters 43.2 37.4 -5.8 MFs 7.3 10.9 3.6 FPIs 24.4 20.2 -4.2 Retail 7.8 7.7 -0.1 Others 17.3 23.8 6.5 Markets now better equipped to handle large promoter stake sales Top sales by Promoters (Rs cr) Bharti Airtel 13,173 IndiGo 11,564 Vishal Mega Mart 10,200 Bajaj Finserv 5,506 Hindustan Zinc 3,018
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Business Standard
08-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Promoter stakes fall to 37% in FY25 as MFs, retail drive free float rise
A quiet shift is reshaping India's markets as promoters reduce their stakes in companies at an unprecedented pace. Promoter holdings in the top 200 privately owned listed companies have fallen by nearly 600 basis points (bps), from 43 per cent in 2021 to 37 per cent by the end of financial year 2024–25 (FY25). This decline is largely driven by promoter share sales through block deals, with domestic mutual funds (MFs) absorbing most of the supply. Between FY21 and FY25, MF holdings in BSE 200 companies rose by 360 bps to 10.9 per cent, while foreign portfolio investor (FPI) holdings dropped by 420 bps to 24.4 per cent. 'Retail households, through institutional investors, have bought at the expense of FPIs and insiders,' KIE notes, highlighting sustained inflows into domestic institutional investors (DIIs) despite FPI outflows. During the first half of calendar year 2025, DIIs pumped in Rs 3.5 trillion into listed stocks, up from Rs 2.4 trillion during the same period last year. FPIs were net sellers of more than Rs 82,000 crore during the first half. The unprecedented flows have bolstered the Indian market's ability to absorb large stake sales. Earlier this year, British American Tobacco (BAT) and Singtel sold shares worth nearly Rs 13,000 crore each in ITC and Bharti Airtel, respectively. Lower promoter holdings have increased the free-float market capitalisation of Indian equities, boosting India's weight in global benchmarks like the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) index. By June 2025, India's weight in the MSCI EM index reached 18.12 per cent, up from less than 8 per cent in 2021, trailing only China, which is at 28.4 per cent. Historically, India's free float—shares held by non-promoters—has lagged behind global peers such as the US, UK, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Brazil and Singapore. Typically, in the developed world, the free-float market capitalisation is above 90 per cent. The recent decline aligns India's free float more closely with Asian peers such as South Korea, Brazil and Taiwan. The drop in promoter stakes is more striking compared to 2009, ahead of the introduction of the mandatory 25 per cent minimum public shareholding (MPS) norms. In March 2009, promoter holdings were at a 19-year high of 57.6 per cent. 'The long-term trend indicates a sharp rise in promoter ownership between 2001 and 2009 that gradually tapered off since, coinciding with Sebi's decision to increase the minimum required free float from 10 per cent to 25 per cent in 2010,' observes the latest India Ownership Tracker report published by the NSE. Interestingly, overall private promoter ownership edged higher by almost 11.6 percentage points between June 2010 and December 2021. It then hit a downward slope amid a sustained rise in domestic equities. KIE's analysis suggests promoters have timed stake sales to capitalise on high Nifty valuations, with sales peaking during periods of elevated market prices.
Business Recorder
30-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Foreign investors raise bets that India stock market rally may stall
Foreign investors are becoming more cautious about the Indian stock market, indicating a three-month rally may run out of legs despite retail traders growing optimistic, according to monthly derivatives data analysed by two brokerages. The Nifty 50 has risen about 12% from March through May, largely due to better-than-expected corporate earnings and easing global trade risks. That is nearly double the 6.6% gain in the MSCI Emerging Markets index in that time. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pumped $2.66 billion into Indian equities over that period and cut their short positions on the Nifty. A short seller borrows stock at a higher price betting its value will decline, at which point they buy the stock and pocket the profit. However, FPIs have started the June derivatives series – which runs from May 30 to June 25 – with about $2 billion in Nifty index futures shorts, the highest since February, according to Nuvama Alternative and Quantitative Research. In contrast, retail investors and high-net-worth individuals (HNIs), called the client category, turned bullish with long positions worth $1.54 billion on Nifty futures, compared with $546 million in shorts from early May. Indian benchmarks end May with gains as investors wait for growth data 'This divergence sets up a potential tug-of-war between institutional caution and retail optimism, and could lead to a brief pause in the market rally in June,' said Abhilash Pagaria, head of Nuvama. Indeed, the Nifty's gains have weakened in each month – from 6.3% in March to 3.5% in April and to about 2% in May. 'Markets appear to be waiting for some concrete cues before turning bullish,' said Sriram Velayudhan, VP at IIFL Securities. Velayudhan expects the Nifty 50 to trade between 24,300 and 25,300 points over the June series, compared with its current level of about 24,800 points. Analysts expect the Nifty to hit new highs by end-2025, but say a correction is likely in the next three months, according to a Reuters poll.
Time of India
30-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Foreign investors grow wary of Indian stock market rally
Foreign investors are becoming more cautious about the Indian stock market, indicating a three-month rally may run out of legs despite retail traders growing optimistic, according to monthly derivatives data analysed by two brokerages. The Nifty 50 has risen about 12% from March through May, largely due to better-than-expected corporate earnings and easing global trade risks. That is nearly double the 6.6% gain in the MSCI Emerging Markets index in that time. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like "봉자인터넷"이 105만원을 드립니다 봉자인터넷 더 알아보기 Undo Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pumped $2.66 billion into Indian equities over that period and cut their short positions on the Nifty. A short seller borrows stock at a higher price betting its value will decline, at which point they buy the stock and pocket the profit. However, FPIs have started the June derivatives series -- which runs from May 30 to June 25 -- with about $2 billion in Nifty index futures shorts, the highest since February, according to Nuvama Alternative and Quantitative Research. In contrast, retail investors and high-net-worth individuals (HNIs), called the client category, turned bullish with long positions worth $1.54 billion on Nifty futures, compared with $546 million in shorts from early May. Live Events "This divergence sets up a potential tug-of-war between institutional caution and retail optimism, and could lead to a brief pause in the market rally in June," said Abhilash Pagaria, head of Nuvama. Indeed, the Nifty's gains have weakened in each month -- from 6.3% in March to 3.5% in April and to about 2% in May. "Markets appear to be waiting for some concrete cues before turning bullish," said Sriram Velayudhan, VP at IIFL Securities . Velayudhan expects the Nifty 50 to trade between 24,300 and 25,300 points over the June series, compared with its current level of about 24,800 points. Analysts expect the Nifty to hit new highs by end-2025, but say a correction is likely in the next three months, according to a Reuters poll.
