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Mint
25-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Poland: the ignored stockmarket superstar
Europe's bourses have not shone so brightly in years. Speak to those who analyse them for a living and you will still detect a note of disbelief—they can hardly remember the last time foreign investors were paying them as much attention. Why that should be is no mystery. Measured in dollars, Europe's Stoxx 600 index has risen by 16% in 2025, compared with 3% for the MSCI World. More mysterious, Europe's highest-soaring stockmarket has slipped beneath many investors' radars. Everyone knows that share prices in Germany have rocketed, and that those of its armsmakers have gone ballistic. Yet its DAX index is up by a paltry 27% (in dollars again) this year. Poland's WIG has risen by over 40% and, since a trough in 2022, has nearly tripled. Quietly, a long-moribund market has become Europe's superstar. 'Poland is the new Germany," says Peter Bosek, chief executive of Erste Group Bank, an Austrian lender that is acquiring Santander Bank Polska, Poland's third-largest. The analogy works in several ways. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, but especially over the past two decades, Poland has achieved a stunning economic transformation—reminiscent of Germany's in the second half of the 20th century. By the World Bank's standards, it dodged the 'middle-income trap" that ensnared economies elsewhere, moving to high-income status in just 15 years. The IMF reckons that, this year, Poland's GDP per person will exceed Japan's, adjusted for purchasing power. In 2005 Poland's income on this measure was 50% of the EU average; in 2025 the IMF thinks it will rise to 85%. Until recently, though, Poland's success did little to boost the appeal of its stockmarket to international investors. Between 2010 and 2020, share prices were more or less flat in dollar terms. During the covid-19 pandemic and the crash of 2022, they convulsed along with markets elsewhere. Then, in 2023, Poles started looking more German in a second way: by booting their populist, interventionist and anti-EU Law and Justice (PiS) party out of power. In its place they elected an investor-friendly alliance led by Donald Tusk, a former president of the European Council. PiS's approach to markets had included installing a crony to run Poland's central bank, which then slashed interest rates during the 2023 election campaign, despite inflation being at 10%. Meanwhile Orlen, a state-run and PiS-controlled energy firm, conveniently cut fuel prices. Mr Tusk's comparatively hands-off administration has made Poland far more investible. And it has so far unlocked €21bn ($23bn) in post-covid aid from the EU, which had previously been withheld owing to PiS's meddling with the courts. That left Polish shares poised to participate—and then some—in Europe's rally this year, as investors have reconsidered their outsize allocations to America and wondered where else they can park their cash. How about the stockmarket of a mid-sized, rich country that is boosting its growth prospects with a big fiscal stimulus and a determination to re-arm? The reasoning that has led many to Germany applies to Poland, too. In 2025 it expects to spend 4.7% of its GDP on defence, more than any other NATO member and up from 2.2% in 2022. So far, much of that has gone on imports to replace the hardware Poland sent to Ukraine after Russia's invasion, and so has done little to raise GDP. But that will soon change, since Poland is also acquiring manufacturing and maintenance capacity. The government says it will spend 50% of its funds for technological modernisation on equipment made in Poland. Faster growth should follow. More immediately, points out Mai Doan of Bank of America, Poland should benefit from German growth, which is set to speed up as Germany spends more on defence and infrastructure. She estimates that higher German growth passes through almost one-for-one across the border, since it translates into higher demand for Polish exports, including capital goods and military gear. There are limits to how fast money can flow into Polish stocks with the WIG index's market value at just $520bn. Nevertheless, 40% of that is made up of the shares of financial firms which are well-placed to harvest returns from a strong economy. The market remains enticingly cheap. Share prices are only ten times firms' expected earnings for this year, compared with 15 for Europe more broadly and 22 for America. For now, the rise of the Warsaw Stock Exchange has attracted little attention. Do not bet on that continuing. Subscribers to The Economist can sign up to our Opinion newsletter, which brings together the best of our leaders, columns, guest essays and reader correspondence.
Yahoo
17-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Eagle Materials (EXP) Fell on Sector Concerns
L1 Capital, an investment management firm, released its 'L1 Capital International Fund' (unhedged) second quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The fund returned 4.5% (net of fees) in the June quarter compared to the MSCI World Net Total Return Index's (in AUD) 6.0% return. The Fund returned 22.1% (net of fees) for the year ended June 30, 2025, compared to 18.5% for the benchmark. During the quarter, the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors outperformed others, driven by the Magnificent 7. Please check the fund's top five holdings to know its best picks in 2025. In its second quarter 2025 investor letter, L1 Capital International Fund highlighted stocks such as Eagle Materials Inc. (NYSE:EXP). Eagle Materials Inc. (NYSE:EXP) is a heavy construction material and light building materials supplier. The one-month return of Eagle Materials Inc. (NYSE:EXP) was 8.35%, and its shares lost 7.85% of their value over the last 52 weeks. On July 16, 2025, Eagle Materials Inc. (NYSE:EXP) stock closed at $211.87 per share, with a market capitalization of $6.914 billion. L1 Capital International Fund stated the following regarding Eagle Materials Inc. (NYSE:EXP) in its second quarter 2025 investor letter: "On the negative side, 3 companies, Eagle Materials Inc. (NYSE:EXP), Marsh & McLennan and UnitedHealth Group (in alphabetical order) each detracted more than 0.5% from the Fund's returns for the quarter. A close-up of limestone being mined from a quarry. Eagle Materials Inc. (NYSE:EXP) is not on our list of 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 30 hedge fund portfolios held Eagle Materials Inc. (NYSE:EXP) at the end of the first quarter, which was 36 in the previous quarter. In the fiscal fourth quarter of 2025, Eagle Materials Inc.'s (NYSE:EXP) revenue was down 1% to $470 million, primarily due to lower cement and gypsum wallboard sales volumes. While we acknowledge the potential of EXP as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. In another article, we covered Eagle Materials Inc. (NYSE:EXP) and shared L1 Capital International Fund's views on the company in the previous quarter. In addition, please check out our hedge fund investor letters Q2 2025 page for more investor letters from hedge funds and other leading investors. READ NEXT: The Best and Worst Dow Stocks for the Next 12 Months and 10 Unstoppable Stocks That Could Double Your Money. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
17-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Here's Why UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) Detracted in Q2
L1 Capital, an investment management firm, released its 'L1 Capital International Fund' (unhedged) second quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The fund returned 4.5% (net of fees) in the June quarter compared to the MSCI World Net Total Return Index's (in AUD) 6.0% return. The Fund returned 22.1% (net of fees) for the year ended June 30, 2025, compared to 18.5% for the benchmark. During the quarter, the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors outperformed others, driven by the Magnificent 7. Please check the fund's top five holdings to know its best picks in 2025. In its second quarter 2025 investor letter, L1 Capital International Fund highlighted stocks such as UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH). UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) is a diversified healthcare company that operates through UnitedHealthcare, Optum Health, Optum Insight, and Optum Rx segments. The one-month return of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) was -4.79%, and its shares lost 48.98% of their value over the last 52 weeks. On July 16, 2025, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) stock closed at $292.49 per share, with a market capitalization of $265.329 billion. L1 Capital International Fund stated the following regarding UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) in its second quarter 2025 investor letter: "On the negative side, 3 companies, Eagle Materials, Marsh & McLennan and UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) (in alphabetical order) each detracted more than 0.5% from the Fund's returns for the quarter. A senior healthcare professional giving advice to a patient in a clinic. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) is in 18th position on our list of 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 139 hedge fund portfolios held UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) at the end of the first quarter, which was 150 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of UNH as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. In another article, we covered UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) and shared the list of stocks on Jim Cramer's radar. ClearBridge Large Cap Growth Strategy trimmed its holdings in UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) in Q2 2025. In addition, please check out our hedge fund investor letters Q2 2025 page for more investor letters from hedge funds and other leading investors. READ NEXT: The Best and Worst Dow Stocks for the Next 12 Months and 10 Unstoppable Stocks That Could Double Your Money. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Mint
04-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Markets 90-day tariff pause rollercoaster nears an uncertain end
(Refiles to include dropped phrase "domestically held" in paragraph 27, no other changes to story) Pause on Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs expires on July 9 Stocks have flourished despite tariff volatility Major exporters to US still awaiting clarity Gold rises on inflation risks, global unrest, US debt worries GDANSK/LONDON, July 4 (Reuters) - The deadline U.S. President Donald Trump set for major trading partners to strike deals with Washington or face hefty tariffs expires next week, bringing to a close 90 days of volatility but leaving global investors in the dark over what will happen next. Trump's propensity to issue a threat, or impose a new tariff, only to reverse course shortly afterwards has led to turmoil over the past three months. Investors, however, have now become somewhat inured to this sort of policymaking on the fly. And, as a result, there is little evidence at this point that many are preparing for fireworks on July 9. Instead, most expect some kind of delay, pause or compromise. What that will look like, however, is anyone's guess. Here is a snapshot of where major markets are now, relative to where they were when Trump dropped his initial tariffs bombshell on April 2: Global stock markets have staged a strong recovery following the intense volatility triggered by Trump's tariff announcement. The MSCI World index, which fell 10% between April 2 and April 9, the day Trump paused the tariffs, has hit successive record highs and gained over 11% since the original "Liberation Day" announcement. Global equities got another boost in May, when the U.S. and China reached a temporary truce, pausing many tariffs for another 90 days. Geopolitical tensions, including Israel's recent strikes on Iran and Washington's subsequent bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, briefly reined in sentiment but have not derailed the broader rally. The S&P 500, which had lagged other major equity markets earlier in the year, has closed those gaps, gaining over 10% since April 2, and is neck and neck with the MSCI all-country index, which excludes the United States . There's an important caveat, however. The S&P has only hit record highs in dollar terms. The weakness in the U.S. currency has eroded the returns for overseas investors. In euro or Swiss franc terms, for example, the index is still about 10% below February's record high, while in pounds, it's 7% below the sterling-denominated peak. The U.S. dollar, widely regarded as the world's most powerful and stable currency, has suffered a knock to its reputation from Trump's tariffs and the subsequent 90-day pause. The dollar index, which reflects the U.S. currency's performance against a basket of six others including the euro and the Japanese yen, suffered its worst first half of the year since 1973, declining by approximately 11%. It has fallen by 6.6% since April 2 alone. Against the currencies of some of the United States' biggest trading partners, the decline has been even more marked. It has lost some 8% against the euro and the Mexican peso since then and 5% against the Canadian dollar. Vincent Mortier, the CIO of Europe's largest asset manager Amundi, said the euro has plenty more room to run, especially as U.S. debt worries are also driving the dollar down. "I won't be surprised if by the end of next year we start to revisit the $1.30 level," he said, highlighting that at its 2008 peak, the euro got as high as $1.60. FOR EXPORTERS, CERTAINTY IS THE PRIZE European shares have more than recovered losses suffered since Trump's "Liberation Day". But strength in the euro and anxiety over tariffs have kept them below March's record highs. Large exporting sectors such as pharma and autos, which make up around one-third of EU exports to the United States, have rebounded too, but have been more volatile. Brussels is reportedly open to a U.S. deal that would apply a universal 10% tariff on many of its exports, something several investors would view favourably should it be confirmed. Citi said markets risk being caught offside if tariffs are reimposed at 20% or reach 50%. "Trump is truly unpredictable, but if it's really around 10%, I think the markets will react very well," said Carlo Franchini, head of institutional clients at Banca Ifigest. The impact of the trade talks extends beyond Europe, however, with automakers in Japan also being watched. Citi's base case is for a sustained 25% tariff, while a surprise cut to 10% could unlock a 50% upside for Japanese auto stocks. Gold has featured as the hedge of choice against an array of risks, from tariff-induced inflation, to geopolitical risk and a shift away from the U.S. dollar. The price has hit record after record, rising 26% so far this year to around $3,330 an ounce. Gold has eclipsed bitcoin , which has gained about 14% year to date, and even Nvidia , the maker of chips that power AI capabilities, whose shares went parabolic last year and have risen about 18% this year. Since April 2, gold's ascent has gathered pace, fuelled by purchases from central banks, fund managers and even individuals. A survey by UBS Asset Management this week showed 39% of respondents said they planned to increase their domestically held gold holdings, compared with 15% last year. The independence of the Federal Reserve - whose chair, Jerome Powell, Trump has berated repeatedly for not cutting interest rates fast enough - is one of the key concerns cited in the survey. (Reporting by Canan Sevgili and Alberto Chiumento in Gdansk, Danilo Masoni in Milan and Alun John, Marc Jones and Amanda Cooper in London; Editing by Joe Bavier)
Reuters
04-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Markets' 90-day tariff pause rollercoaster nears an uncertain end
GDANSK/LONDON, July 4 (Reuters) - The deadline U.S. President Donald Trump set for major trading partners to strike deals with Washington or face hefty tariffs expires next week, bringing to a close 90 days of volatility but leaving global investors in the dark over what will happen next. Trump's propensity to issue a threat, or impose a new tariff, only to reverse course shortly afterwards has led to turmoil over the past three months. Investors, however, have now become somewhat inured to this sort of policymaking on the fly. And, as a result, there is little evidence at this point that many are preparing for fireworks on July 9. Instead, most expect some kind of delay, pause or compromise. What that will look like, however, is anyone's guess. Here is a snapshot of where major markets are now, relative to where they were when Trump dropped his initial tariffs bombshell on April 2: Global stock markets have staged a strong recovery following the intense volatility triggered by Trump's tariff announcement. The MSCI World index (.MIWD00000PUS), opens new tab, which fell 10% between April 2 and April 9, the day Trump paused the tariffs, has hit successive record highs and gained over 11% since the original "Liberation Day" announcement. Global equities got another boost in May, when the U.S. and China reached a temporary truce, pausing many tariffs for another 90 days. Geopolitical tensions, including Israel's recent strikes on Iran and Washington's subsequent bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, briefly reined in sentiment but have not derailed the broader rally. The S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab, which had lagged other major equity markets earlier in the year, has closed those gaps, gaining over 10% since April 2, and is neck and neck with the MSCI all-country index, which excludes the United States (.MIWU00000PUS), opens new tab. There's an important caveat, however. The S&P has only hit record highs in dollar terms. The weakness in the U.S. currency has eroded the returns for overseas investors. In euro or Swiss franc terms, for example, the index is still about 10% below February's record high, while in pounds, it's 7% below the sterling-denominated peak. The U.S. dollar, widely regarded as the world's most powerful and stable currency, has suffered a knock to its reputation from Trump's tariffs and the subsequent 90-day pause. The dollar index , which reflects the U.S. currency's performance against a basket of six others including the euro and the Japanese yen, suffered its worst first half of the year since 1973, declining by approximately 11%. It has fallen by 6.6% since April 2 alone. Against the currencies of some of the United States' biggest trading partners, the decline has been even more marked. It has lost some 8% against the euro and the Mexican peso since then and 5% against the Canadian dollar . Vincent Mortier, the CIO of Europe's largest asset manager Amundi, said the euro has plenty more room to run, especially as U.S. debt worries are also driving the dollar down. "I won't be surprised if by the end of next year we start to revisit the $1.30 level," he said, highlighting that at its 2008 peak, the euro got as high as $1.60. European shares have more than recovered losses suffered since Trump's "Liberation Day". But strength in the euro and anxiety over tariffs have kept them below March's record highs. Large exporting sectors such as pharma and autos, which make up around one-third of EU exports to the United States, have rebounded too, but have been more volatile. Brussels is reportedly open to a U.S. deal that would apply a universal 10% tariff on many of its exports, something several investors would view favourably should it be confirmed. Citi said markets risk being caught offside if tariffs are reimposed at 20% or reach 50%. "Trump is truly unpredictable, but if it's really around 10%, I think the markets will react very well," said Carlo Franchini, head of institutional clients at Banca Ifigest. The impact of the trade talks extends beyond Europe, however, with automakers in Japan also being watched. Citi's base case is for a sustained 25% tariff, while a surprise cut to 10% could unlock a 50% upside for Japanese auto stocks. Gold has featured as the hedge of choice against an array of risks, from tariff-induced inflation, to geopolitical risk and a shift away from the U.S. dollar. The price has hit record after record, rising 26% so far this year to around $3,330 an ounce. Gold has eclipsed bitcoin , which has gained about 14% year to date, and even Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab, the maker of chips that power AI capabilities, whose shares went parabolic last year and have risen about 18% this year. Since April 2, gold's ascent has gathered pace, fuelled by purchases from central banks, fund managers and even individuals. A survey by UBS Asset Management this week showed 39% of respondents said they planned to increase their gold holdings, compared with 15% last year. The independence of the Federal Reserve - whose chair, Jerome Powell, Trump has berated repeatedly for not cutting interest rates fast enough - is one of the key concerns cited in the survey.
