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Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trading Day: Markets rise above the fray
ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) - - TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist For all that the uncertainty around Washington's global tariff war and worrisome U.S. fiscal outlook continue to unnerve investors, not to mention the Trump-Musk public mud-slinging circus, world markets just closed out a quietly impressive week. Broad U.S., Asian, European and emerging market equity benchmarks all rose, pushing the MSCI World index to a fresh record high, while the dollar, Treasury yields and gold generally held steady over the week. Of course, these broad sweeps mask some notable price moves in certain assets, such as Tesla's 14% share price crash on Thursday, Treasury yields spiking up to 15 basis points on Friday after the latest nonfarm payrolls data, or the dollar sliding to within touching distance of a new three-year low on Thursday. Investors appear to be in a forgiving mood, willing to trust that policymakers will dial down global trade tensions, slow the U.S. fiscal train as it approaches the cliff edge, and steer the world economy through these choppy waters with minimum damage. Investors faced several key monetary policy crosswinds this week. The Bank of Canada stood pat and the European Central Bank cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point, but their guidance was seen as relatively hawkish. The Canadian dollar and euro both strengthened. On the other hand, Switzerland's slide into deflation ups the ante on the Swiss National Bank and traders are betting on a return to negative interest rates by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India on Friday cut rates by more than expected. Fed officials mostly continue to hold the line that uncertainty around tariffs and their impact on growth and inflation is so high that the central bank is firmly in the 'wait and see' camp. If the Fed is to resume its easing cycle, it won't be until October, according to rates futures market pricing. With global central banks perhaps entering a summer pause, focus will intensify on the Trump administration's trade deal negotiations with major trading partners like China and Europe ahead of July 9, when Washington's pause on reciprocal tariffs expires. U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that his 90-minute telephone call with China's Xi Jinping on Thursday was friendly, and there were lots of smiles in his meeting later that day in the Oval Office with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. But ultimately, the call with Xi yielded nothing concrete, although U.S.-China talks will take place in London next week. And it is through the 27-nation European Union that any deal with Germany will be reached, not bilaterally. There are so many moving parts on Washington's tariff board, including but not restricted to: sector tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, bilateral negotiations with dozens of countries, and court rulings and counter rulings. It's a little surprising, perhaps, that investors' glass is half full. I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me with comments at . You can also follow me at @ReutersJamie and @ This Week's Key Market Moves * The Tesla rollercoaster. Shares in Elon Musk's EVcompany fell 15%, wiping $155 billion off its market cap. Sharesare down 27% this year, the most of the world's top 20companies, wiping $330 billion off its value. * The S&P 500 closes above 6000 points for the first timesince February, and the Nasdaq rises more than 2% for a secondweek despite Tesla's tumble, indicating an otherwise solidrevival in U.S. AI/tech. Global stocks hit a record high withthe MSCI World index up 1.5% on the week. * Precious metals shine. Silver rises nearly 10%, its bestweek since September, climbing to a 13-year high of $36/ also up 10%, for a second week in three. * U.S. crude oil futures rise 6% to trade above $64/bbl,the biggest weekly rise since September, on supply concerns andhopes of a thaw in U.S.-Sino trade tensions. * U.S. bond yield curves flatten, led by selloff at theshort end, retracing some of the recent steepening. 2s/10s curveflattens 11 bps this week, the most since February. Chart of the Week Again, two charts for you this week, both on tariffs. The first shows how much tariff-related turmoil the S&P 500 has navigated since Trump was sworn in. In many ways, it's remarkable that the index is up on the year. The second is based on a New York Fed survey published this week showing how U.S. firms are passing on price increases to customers. Most strikingly, almost half of services companies are passing on 100% of the tariffs. Here are some of the best things I read this week: 1. U.S. Outlook: Unsure - Mark Zandi 2. King Trump vs. the Bond Market - Kenneth Rogoff 3. America's Retreat Is Europe's Big Opportunity - PinelopiKoujianou Goldberg 4. US tariffs and global inflation - Robin Brooks 5. How Should Europe Respond to King Donald? - Brad Setser What could move markets on Monday? * Japan GDP (Q1, final) * Japan trade, current account (April) * China PPI and CPI inflation (May) * China trade (May) * Taiwan trade (May) Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Trading Day is also sent by email every weekday morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here. (Writing by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Marguerita Choy)
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trading Day: Markets rise above the fray
ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) - - TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist For all that the uncertainty around Washington's global tariff war and worrisome U.S. fiscal outlook continue to unnerve investors, not to mention the Trump-Musk public mud-slinging circus, world markets just closed out a quietly impressive week. Broad U.S., Asian, European and emerging market equity benchmarks all rose, pushing the MSCI World index to a fresh record high, while the dollar, Treasury yields and gold generally held steady over the week. Of course, these broad sweeps mask some notable price moves in certain assets, such as Tesla's 14% share price crash on Thursday, Treasury yields spiking up to 15 basis points on Friday after the latest nonfarm payrolls data, or the dollar sliding to within touching distance of a new three-year low on Thursday. Investors appear to be in a forgiving mood, willing to trust that policymakers will dial down global trade tensions, slow the U.S. fiscal train as it approaches the cliff edge, and steer the world economy through these choppy waters with minimum damage. Investors faced several key monetary policy crosswinds this week. The Bank of Canada stood pat and the European Central Bank cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point, but their guidance was seen as relatively hawkish. The Canadian dollar and euro both strengthened. On the other hand, Switzerland's slide into deflation ups the ante on the Swiss National Bank and traders are betting on a return to negative interest rates by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India on Friday cut rates by more than expected. Fed officials mostly continue to hold the line that uncertainty around tariffs and their impact on growth and inflation is so high that the central bank is firmly in the 'wait and see' camp. If the Fed is to resume its easing cycle, it won't be until October, according to rates futures market pricing. With global central banks perhaps entering a summer pause, focus will intensify on the Trump administration's trade deal negotiations with major trading partners like China and Europe ahead of July 9, when Washington's pause on reciprocal tariffs expires. U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that his 90-minute telephone call with China's Xi Jinping on Thursday was friendly, and there were lots of smiles in his meeting later that day in the Oval Office with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. But ultimately, the call with Xi yielded nothing concrete, although U.S.-China talks will take place in London next week. And it is through the 27-nation European Union that any deal with Germany will be reached, not bilaterally. There are so many moving parts on Washington's tariff board, including but not restricted to: sector tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, bilateral negotiations with dozens of countries, and court rulings and counter rulings. It's a little surprising, perhaps, that investors' glass is half full. I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me with comments at . You can also follow me at @ReutersJamie and @ This Week's Key Market Moves * The Tesla rollercoaster. Shares in Elon Musk's EVcompany fell 15%, wiping $155 billion off its market cap. Sharesare down 27% this year, the most of the world's top 20companies, wiping $330 billion off its value. * The S&P 500 closes above 6000 points for the first timesince February, and the Nasdaq rises more than 2% for a secondweek despite Tesla's tumble, indicating an otherwise solidrevival in U.S. AI/tech. Global stocks hit a record high withthe MSCI World index up 1.5% on the week. * Precious metals shine. Silver rises nearly 10%, its bestweek since September, climbing to a 13-year high of $36/ also up 10%, for a second week in three. * U.S. crude oil futures rise 6% to trade above $64/bbl,the biggest weekly rise since September, on supply concerns andhopes of a thaw in U.S.-Sino trade tensions. * U.S. bond yield curves flatten, led by selloff at theshort end, retracing some of the recent steepening. 2s/10s curveflattens 11 bps this week, the most since February. Chart of the Week Again, two charts for you this week, both on tariffs. The first shows how much tariff-related turmoil the S&P 500 has navigated since Trump was sworn in. In many ways, it's remarkable that the index is up on the year. The second is based on a New York Fed survey published this week showing how U.S. firms are passing on price increases to customers. Most strikingly, almost half of services companies are passing on 100% of the tariffs. Here are some of the best things I read this week: 1. U.S. Outlook: Unsure - Mark Zandi 2. King Trump vs. the Bond Market - Kenneth Rogoff 3. America's Retreat Is Europe's Big Opportunity - PinelopiKoujianou Goldberg 4. US tariffs and global inflation - Robin Brooks 5. How Should Europe Respond to King Donald? - Brad Setser What could move markets on Monday? * Japan GDP (Q1, final) * Japan trade, current account (April) * China PPI and CPI inflation (May) * China trade (May) * Taiwan trade (May) Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Trading Day is also sent by email every weekday morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here. (Writing by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Marguerita Choy)
Economist
14-05-2025
- Business
- Economist
Poland: the ignored stockmarket superstar
Europe's bourses have not shone so brightly in years. Speak to those who analyse them for a living and you will still detect a note of disbelief—they can hardly remember the last time foreign investors were paying them so much attention. Why that should be is no mystery. Measured in dollars, Europe's Stoxx 600 index has risen by 16% in 2025, compared with 3% for the MSCI World.
Perth Now
12-05-2025
- Business
- Perth Now
Surprising impact of Trump's turmoil
Australian superannuation has surprisingly held up in April, but members are being warned they'll need to put up with wild swings in asset values in the months to come. Figures released by Super Ratings shows the median superannuation funds eked out a small positive return of 0.4 per cent for the month of April. The small gain came despite a wild month, with shares cratering following the US President's sweeping tariff policy, reaching a low on April 7, before rebounding sharply after April 9 when Mr Trump announced a 90 day pause on tariffs. Superannuation members are surprisingly up in April, despite global sharemarkets falling. NewsWire / Nicholas Eagar Credit: NewsWire Super Ratings executive director Kirby Rappell warned Australians will need to learn to live with volatility over the next period. 'Members that panicked and switched options or withdrew funds may have missed out on this rebound and we continue to encourage a long-term mindset around superannuation,' Mr Rappell said. According to Super Ratings the median growth option gained an estimated 0.4 per cent for the month, while the median capital stable option is estimated to have gained 0.6 per cent. In April the Australian sharemarket outperformed its global peers, up 3.6 per cent for the month. But global shares slumped, with the US S & P 500 fell 0.7 per cent and the MSCI World ex-Australian index slumped 1.84 per cent for the month of April in Australian dollar terms. This follows a rough March for members when the median superannuation balance are estimated to have fallen by 1.9 per cent. Despite the volatility, those invested in the median balanced option returns are back to where they were at the start of January and are still up 6 per cent for the financial year to date. Mr Rappell said despite the volatile sharemarket, Australians benefited from diversification across asset classes, with around 45 per cent of money invested in non-share assets. 'We saw a strong response from markets to the announcement of tariffs by the US early in the month, which resulted in superannuation returns bouncing around much more than usual' Mr Rappell said. The ASX 200 was one of the few markets to finish April in the green. Photo: Gaye Gerard / NewsWire Credit: News Corp Australia 'Importantly, the large declines seen at the beginning of the month were quickly regained as tariffs were paused, reinforcing the difficulty of timing the market.' Mr Rappell warned the markets could remain volatile for a while to come. 'The pause on tariffs, we continue to believe there will be ups and downs over the coming months, however funds have consistently demonstrated their ability to navigate changing markets and provide strong long-term outcomes for members,' Mr Rappell said. 'Setting and sticking to a long-term strategy remains the best approach to achieving long term success and we encourage any member thinking of changing their strategy to seek advice from their fund or a trusted financial adviser.' Superannuation members in the pension returns also saw similarly subdued over April, with the median balanced pension option gaining an estimated 0.7 per cent. The median capital stable pension option is estimated to have risen by 0.8 per cent over the month while the median growth pension option is estimated to rise 0.7 per cent for the same period.
Telegraph
30-04-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
What I learnt from 100 days of investing under Trump
One of the problems with taking the credit for markets going up is that others might make the same connection when they go down again. One hundred days into his second term, Donald Trump seems less interested in treating Wall Street as a barometer of his success, for the obvious reason. It is the worst start to a presidency, from a US investor's perspective, since Gerald Ford in the 1970s. There's no escaping the market's judgment. So what are the numbers telling us? Since inauguration day on Jan 20, the MSCI World index has fallen 4pc. That's hardly a disaster, but look under the surface and it is clear what is dragging markets lower. Over the same period, the S&P 500 index is 8pc down, while shares in China and other emerging markets, including India, and those in Europe, including the UK, are broadly flat or slightly higher. Within the out-of-favour US market, it is the growth-focused shares at either end of the size spectrum that have taken the greatest hit. The smaller companies in the Russell 2000 index have lost 14pc of their value in three months while the 'magnificent seven' tech stocks have fared even worse in many cases: Nvidia is 21pc down, Amazon has lost 17pc, Google-owner Alphabet is 19pc off and the company most closely associated with Trump, Elon Musk's Tesla, has lost a third of its market value. The performance of the tech stocks since January shows that while presidents, especially ones as busy as Trump, can influence markets, some things are outside their control. The reason there is only a tenuous link between market performance and the man in the White House, or the party he represents, is the fact that the starting point for an investment matters as much as what happens while you hold it. Barack Obama entered the White House in the wake of the financial crisis and Joe Biden in the dark days of the pandemic. Trump had the misfortune to catch high tide for US exceptionalism and the end of the AI boom. Another market truism that has been confirmed by the last 100 days is the importance of portfolio diversification. While shares, the dollar and the oil price have fallen, bonds have held their own and gold has risen by more than 20pc. A balanced portfolio containing a mix of assets has largely shrugged off the political uncertainty. But again, there is a risk of overstating the importance of the Trump presidency to the performance of gold. Arguably the bigger influence has been the freezing of Russia's dollar-denominated assets in 2022 and the nudge it provided to China, which has since doubled the proportion of its reserves held in the form of gold. Central bank buying rather than unpredictable politics has been the principal driver of the precious metal. A third lesson from the first three months of the presidency has been the confirmation that, contrary to early indications, Donald Trump really does care what Wall Street thinks. Markets have been able to rein in the revolutionary zeal of a White House determined to move fast and break things. One of the reasons markets responded so badly to Trump's tariff policy was the fear that he had found a way to side-step congressional and financial market guardrails. But the 'Trump put' that kicked in as bond yields approached 5pc and a 10pc stock market correction morphed into a 20pc technical bear market showed that Mr Market is still a match for Mr Trump. The next thing I take away from the first 100 days is how wrong the consensus can be. Wind back to the interregnum between the election and inauguration, and even the first few weeks of the presidency, and it is striking how few naysayers there were. The tax cuts and deregulation narrative that greeted Trump's return to Washington was so appealing to investors that no one bothered to ask if the president might actually mean what he said about tariffs. And no one should have been surprised. He has been singing the same tune for 40 years. Trump is nothing like as inconsistent as his detractors pretend. We should invest in the world as it is and not as we would like it to be. We should also be prepared for the unexpected. Three months ago, there was broad agreement that an America First agenda would be reflected in continued US market leadership. What few investors could see were the silver linings elsewhere of the president's belligerent isolationism. The end of the US security backstop for Europe, and America's decision to stop being the consumer of last resort for Chinese exports is a gift to both. Europe standing on its own feet militarily and China prioritising domestic consumption has started to be reflected in the performance of their stock markets. What will take a lot longer than 100 days to be confirmed is whether this change in the consensus about US exceptionalism is durable. Big swings in market leadership, currency moves, relative performance and suchlike tend to be multi-year events. And a shift in the direction of travel is often triggered by a major event such as the bursting of the dotcom bubble, the eurozone crisis or the current assault on the post-war trading framework. The dollar has fallen by 10pc since inauguration day. It is both a reflection and the cause of a reversal in the past decade's increase in foreign ownership of US assets. The first 100 days of Trump 2.0 have given investors a glimpse of a less US-centric future. And as he often does, Mr Market has also given investors a second chance to position themselves for that outcome. The market rally since the president's twin capitulations on tariffs and the Fed has reduced the pain of rebalancing if you missed the boat in February. One hundred days in, investors should take the repeat opportunity to prepare for the next three and a half years. Tom Stevenson is an investment director at Fidelity International. These views are his own
