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Yahoo
26-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Summer stock picks: How to play vacation trends
Summer is here! Millions of Americans will hit the road to visit theme parks or watch their favorite band perform. In the video above, Macquarie Capital senior equity research analyst Paul Golding shares some of his favorite summer stock picks. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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Business Standard
05-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
State Bank of India, Kotak Mahindra Bank shares fall on soft earnings
Shares of State Bank of India (SBI) and Kotak Mahindra Bank tumbled on Monday after the banks reported weak quarterly earnings in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024-25 (FY25) over the weekend. While SBI's share price declined 1.26 per cent, Kotak Mahindra Bank's shares shed over 4.5 per cent on Monday. Shares of SBI closed at ₹790 on the BSE while Kotak Mahindra Bank's shares closed at ₹2,085.05. SBI's net profit declined 10 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to ₹18,643 crore in Q4FY25 due to higher provisions. Net interest income (NII) of the lender grew only 2.69 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹42,775 crore. The lender's net interest margin (NIM) dropped to 3 per cent in Q4FY25, from 3.1 per cent in the previous quarter, and 3.3 per cent in the year-ago period. 'SBI posted a slightly soft quarter, as credit growth moderated to 12.4 per cent Y-o-Y due to pre-payments in the corporate book, while higher operational expenditure (staff cost and deposit insurance) and provisions (standard assets, investment, and production-linked incentives) caused a 5 per cent earnings miss,' according to an Emkay report. 'Management kept NIM guidance at 3 per cent in FY26, which is surprising as it factors in a 100 bps (basis points) rate cut in this cycle. It expects NIM decline on account of rate cuts to be limited given the repo-linked book exposure at 29 per cent and some transmission potential through deposit cuts,' Macquarie Capital said in its report. Kotak Mahindra Bank reported a 14 per cent Y-o-Y decline in net profit to ₹3,552 crore in Q4FY25, owing to higher provisions, and higher operational expenses. The bank's NII was up 5 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹7,284 crore while other income was up 7 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹3,182 crore. Its NIM stood at 4.97 per cent in Q4FY25, compared to 5.28 per cent in the corresponding period a year ago. Slippages in the quarter were higher on a Y-o-Y basis but lower sequentially. Loan growth was modest at 13.5 per cent Y-o-Y and 3.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter, amid a decline in corporate banking as well as credit cards. Personal loans, business loans, and consumer loans have picked up significantly after the lifting of the Reserve Bank of India embargo. According to Macquarie Capital's report, the management has indicated that while slippages in the personal loan segment have started declining, credit cards and microfinance slippages remain elevated. Accordingly, it expects credit costs to remain elevated over the next two quarters. 'While FY25 growth remained modest, the bank expects the same to rebound to 1.5-2x of nominal GDP (gross domestic product) growth backed by faster growth in the consumer segment and unsecured loans that should also support the overall yields,' Motlial Oswal said in its report.
Time of India
28-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Recession unlikely, but there will be a period that could resemble stagflation: Viktor Shvets, Macquarie Capital
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel The US will not be in recession but there will be a period that could resemble stagflation , said Viktor Shvets , head of global desk strategy at Macquarie Capital . In an interview with Himadri Buch and Nishanth Vasudevan, Shvets spoke about the Indian economy, the safe haven status of US assets and China, among other issues. Edited excerpts:There is nothing horribly unusual, but what people have got used to is that what we have experienced over the previous 40 or 50 years has very limited applicability and that applies to politics, societies, geopolitics, economics, trade, and markets . All the changes predate Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0. The dividing line, from my perspective, was the global financial crisis around 2010. The world as we knew it over 40 years ago has ended. The questions are what the new world would look like? How long is it going to take us to get there, and how much volatility and disruption will we need to experience?The selling pretty much stopped, and India started to outperform again. What you've seen since September of last year is a recognition (among foreign investors) that India cannot grow at 8%, and even 7% might not be attainable unless it embarks on strong structural domestic reforms across sectors like agriculture and construction. India's appropriate, sustainable growth rate should be around 5.5%-6.5%. In nominal terms, India should be growing at 9-10%. At that point, it would still be delivering double the nominal growth rates that China if it continues with reforms and steady performance, India has a very strong long-term story. But people need to recalibrate for now. Indian analysts are traditionally too bullish. They're constantly looking at 17-18% gross growth rates. If your normal GDP is 9-10%, there is no way in the world earnings per share can be at that of it is about trade. It's about changing American society and the economy. The only way that can be done is by changing the world. People want to burn it down to rebuild. So, investors must embrace Trump is basically channelling numerous grievances. Now, because the grievances are disparate, the policies that are emerging also don't have consistency. So when people look for a plan, there is no plan. So, stop looking for there is an overarching goal, and that has nothing to do with the trade wars. There are three distinct branches in the Republican Party. One is technology titans such as Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen and Peter Thiel, who are second branch, which is much larger numerically, are nationalists who are parochial and want to return US of the 1950s where one salary paid for the whole family and a country lived under God. They don't want legal or illegal immigration and are very suspicious of tech giants and third part is more traditional-Reagan Republican. Scott Bessent, JD Vance, Stephen Bannon and Stephen Miller are examples of that. They also want to reduce regulations. They want the private sector to play a more active role. So, those three camps don't agree on a lot of things. And so, when people say, is the US in favour of a strong or weak dollar? The answer is both. Is it in favour of free trade or tariffs? The answer is both. And so people are looking at all of those moves and asking, 'When would the chaos end?' The answer is it won' 1930s is the closest. That's when you had tariffs, deportations, border closures, strongmen coming to power, attacks on traditional systems, and cultural clashes. Some say the 1970s, but I disagree. In the 1970s, communism was fading, systems were being fine-tuned, and inequality was low, unlike you don't know the basic policies, you can't predict recessions. The only thing one can argue is that uncertainty breeds lower growth and likely high inflation in the US and disinflation in the rest of the world. So that's pretty clear. Structurally, the US economy is very strong and can survive incompetence. But the US is facing almost existential institutional schism, collapse and erosion of institutional pillars. My personal view is that the US will not be in recession. But there will be a period that could resemble stagflation and probably would last for at least a US risk premia are rising, like in the 30s and 70s because of the attacks on institutional pillars and chaotic economic policies. So, the demand for US dollar assets is diminishing. But, it doesn't mean the US dollar is no longer the top currency. There is no replacement for the US dollar. You know, the US CHIPS (Clearing House Interbank Payments System) is 30 times the size of Chinese CHIPS. Whatever China does in its own currency is puny. It's less in size than the state of Alabama. So, there is nothing else to play the role that the US dollar plays. But what it does mean is that it introduces a greater degree of uncertainty as to how you value global assets. Because you are now dealing with a much more volatile risk premia on the safest asset globally. So, for safety, the most obvious is gold. It's an insurance policy against the worst possible outcomes that the world could potentially suffer Fed doesn't know. Jerome Powell lacks visibility on critical factors like tariffs, de-globalisation, and supply shocks, which is why he remains data-dependent. Ultimately, Powell must act based on incoming data, leaning towards growth or inflation. If the US doesn't shift massively in terms of real rates and inflation, the nominal neutral rate could be around 3% to 3.5%. If Powell doesn't cut interest rates, Donald Trump will blame him for any economic slowdown that occurs. If he does cut interest rates, he might be called another Arthur Burns, somebody who buckled in the 1970s and caused a deflationary period. No matter what he does, he can't the longer term, my top markets are the technology corridor- —Korea, Taiwan, and India. In the shorter-term trading sense, China will continue to trade up, primarily because there's less reason to argue why China's equity risk premium, adjusted for inflation, should be 7% while the US is less than 3.5%.China is replicating Japan's 1990s stagnation, with GDP growth struggling. China has over-invested, leading to high savings and disinflation. Structural reforms such as reallocation of money from central government to provincial governments, recapitalisation of the banks, rescuing the real estate sector, supporting social and welfare policies and raising productivity in agriculture are required. But there is no evidence that the government is willing to do that. That is why China has a high risk premium.
Economic Times
28-04-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
stagflation: Recession unlikely, but there will be a period that could resemble stagflation: Viktor Shvets, Macquarie Capital
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel The US will not be in recession but there will be a period that could resemble stagflation , said Viktor Shvets , head of global desk strategy at Macquarie Capital . In an interview with Himadri Buch and Nishanth Vasudevan, Shvets spoke about the Indian economy, the safe haven status of US assets and China, among other issues. Edited excerpts:There is nothing horribly unusual, but what people have got used to is that what we have experienced over the previous 40 or 50 years has very limited applicability and that applies to politics, societies, geopolitics, economics, trade, and markets . All the changes predate Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0. The dividing line, from my perspective, was the global financial crisis around 2010. The world as we knew it over 40 years ago has ended. The questions are what the new world would look like? How long is it going to take us to get there, and how much volatility and disruption will we need to experience?The selling pretty much stopped, and India started to outperform again. What you've seen since September of last year is a recognition (among foreign investors) that India cannot grow at 8%, and even 7% might not be attainable unless it embarks on strong structural domestic reforms across sectors like agriculture and construction. India's appropriate, sustainable growth rate should be around 5.5%-6.5%. In nominal terms, India should be growing at 9-10%. At that point, it would still be delivering double the nominal growth rates that China if it continues with reforms and steady performance, India has a very strong long-term story. But people need to recalibrate for now. Indian analysts are traditionally too bullish. They're constantly looking at 17-18% gross growth rates. If your normal GDP is 9-10%, there is no way in the world earnings per share can be at that of it is about trade. It's about changing American society and the economy. The only way that can be done is by changing the world. People want to burn it down to rebuild. So, investors must embrace Trump is basically channelling numerous grievances. Now, because the grievances are disparate, the policies that are emerging also don't have consistency. So when people look for a plan, there is no plan. So, stop looking for there is an overarching goal, and that has nothing to do with the trade wars. There are three distinct branches in the Republican Party. One is technology titans such as Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen and Peter Thiel, who are second branch, which is much larger numerically, are nationalists who are parochial and want to return US of the 1950s where one salary paid for the whole family and a country lived under God. They don't want legal or illegal immigration and are very suspicious of tech giants and third part is more traditional-Reagan Republican. Scott Bessent, JD Vance, Stephen Bannon and Stephen Miller are examples of that. They also want to reduce regulations. They want the private sector to play a more active role. So, those three camps don't agree on a lot of things. And so, when people say, is the US in favour of a strong or weak dollar? The answer is both. Is it in favour of free trade or tariffs? The answer is both. And so people are looking at all of those moves and asking, 'When would the chaos end?' The answer is it won' 1930s is the closest. That's when you had tariffs, deportations, border closures, strongmen coming to power, attacks on traditional systems, and cultural clashes. Some say the 1970s, but I disagree. In the 1970s, communism was fading, systems were being fine-tuned, and inequality was low, unlike you don't know the basic policies, you can't predict recessions. The only thing one can argue is that uncertainty breeds lower growth and likely high inflation in the US and disinflation in the rest of the world. So that's pretty clear. Structurally, the US economy is very strong and can survive incompetence. But the US is facing almost existential institutional schism, collapse and erosion of institutional pillars. My personal view is that the US will not be in recession. But there will be a period that could resemble stagflation and probably would last for at least a US risk premia are rising, like in the 30s and 70s because of the attacks on institutional pillars and chaotic economic policies. So, the demand for US dollar assets is diminishing. But, it doesn't mean the US dollar is no longer the top currency. There is no replacement for the US dollar. You know, the US CHIPS (Clearing House Interbank Payments System) is 30 times the size of Chinese CHIPS. Whatever China does in its own currency is puny. It's less in size than the state of Alabama. So, there is nothing else to play the role that the US dollar plays. But what it does mean is that it introduces a greater degree of uncertainty as to how you value global assets. Because you are now dealing with a much more volatile risk premia on the safest asset globally. So, for safety, the most obvious is gold. It's an insurance policy against the worst possible outcomes that the world could potentially suffer Fed doesn't know. Jerome Powell lacks visibility on critical factors like tariffs, de-globalisation, and supply shocks, which is why he remains data-dependent. Ultimately, Powell must act based on incoming data, leaning towards growth or inflation. If the US doesn't shift massively in terms of real rates and inflation, the nominal neutral rate could be around 3% to 3.5%. If Powell doesn't cut interest rates, Donald Trump will blame him for any economic slowdown that occurs. If he does cut interest rates, he might be called another Arthur Burns, somebody who buckled in the 1970s and caused a deflationary period. No matter what he does, he can't the longer term, my top markets are the technology corridor- —Korea, Taiwan, and India. In the shorter-term trading sense, China will continue to trade up, primarily because there's less reason to argue why China's equity risk premium, adjusted for inflation, should be 7% while the US is less than 3.5%.China is replicating Japan's 1990s stagnation, with GDP growth struggling. China has over-invested, leading to high savings and disinflation. Structural reforms such as reallocation of money from central government to provincial governments, recapitalisation of the banks, rescuing the real estate sector, supporting social and welfare policies and raising productivity in agriculture are required. But there is no evidence that the government is willing to do that. That is why China has a high risk premium.
Business Recorder
25-04-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
China, Hong Kong stocks head for second week of gains on tariff relief
HONG KONG: China and Hong Kong stocks rose on Friday and were heading towards second consecutive weekly gains, as sentiment stabilized after White House toned down its harsh stance on China despite no signal of concrete progress on trade deals. China and Hong Kong stocks end steady At the midday break, the Shanghai Composite index climbed 0.2% at 3,302.19, and China's blue-chip CSI300 index rose 0.4%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index jumped 1.4%. That brought the gains for the holiday-shortened week to 3.8%, the best performance in nearly two months. The three indexes were all standing at their highest levels since April 3, after US President Donald Trump announced 'reciprocal tariffs' on US imports and triggered a market rout across the globe. The benchmarks are also all on track to notch up a second week of gain. The White House this week is considering easing tensions with China, and Trump said on Thursday that trade talks between the two countries were underway. That follows US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying earlier this week that de-escalation was necessary for the world's two largest economies to rebalance their trading relationship. 'Any progress towards a trade deal helps to settle markets concerns over the worst-case scenario of a full decoupling of the world's two largest economies,' said Eugene Hsiao, head of China equity strategy at Macquarie Capital, Hong Kong. Still, markets will be in wait and see mode at the moment given the recent volatility, he added. Tech shares lifted both onshore and offshore markets on Friday. The CSI Artifical Intelligence Index added 1.4% and the chip sector sub-index erased earlier losses to climb 0.1%. The Hang Seng Tech Index jumped 1.9% in Hong Kong.
