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Economic Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Will India's markets outperform the US? Maneesh Dangi's view on equities and asset allocation
Maneesh Dangi, Macro Mosaic Investing & Research, says despite global uncertainties, India's domestic markets remain resilient and well-positioned. Equities could outperform emerging markets over the next 6–12 months, supported by favorable rate cuts and balanced asset allocation. While short-term volatility exists, sectors like domestic consumption, defence, and selective bonds offer long-term investment opportunities. ADVERTISEMENT Maneesh Dangi: I believe India is likely to outperform the US. The AI investing cycle in the US appears to be peaking, and Nasdaq faces headwinds due to its high valuations. India has underperformed emerging markets over the last 8–10 months, but this underperformance may now reverse. Over the next 6–12 months, Indian equities could perform relatively better than other emerging to bonds, long-term Indian bonds could deliver attractive returns over the next three years, particularly if rates fall from 7.15% to 6.15%. Short-term bonds, however, are expensive, so they may not be as appealing. Overall, a balanced portfolio with moderate equity exposure makes sense, though investors should temper expectations, as returns in India over the next year may be modest, around 10%, unlike the higher returns seen over the past five Dangi: Allocation depends on individual circumstances. For example, a senior investor might prioritize fixed-income instruments yielding 8–9%, while a younger investor could allocate more to equities. In general, compared to last year, maintaining a decent equity allocation is reasonable. Since market timing is difficult, systematic investment plans (SIPs) and staggered investments over the next 12 months are prudent. Maneesh Dangi: The USD may strengthen slightly against developed markets in the event of global risk-off scenarios, but the INR has already absorbed most losses. From a domestic standpoint, the USD-INR rate is likely nearing its peak unless unexpected issues, such as tariffs, Dangi: Gold is expensive and largely speculative, influenced by geopolitical developments. Over long periods, it does not deliver substantial returns or dividends. It is highly cyclical, performing exceptionally well for a few years but remaining stagnant for decades. Investors should be cautious with position sizing in gold, keeping in mind that it primarily acts as an alternate currency rather than a growth asset. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Will India's markets outperform the US? Maneesh Dangi's view on equities and asset allocation
Maneesh Dangi, Macro Mosaic Investing & Research, says despite global uncertainties, India's domestic markets remain resilient and well-positioned. Equities could outperform emerging markets over the next 6–12 months, supported by favorable rate cuts and balanced asset allocation. While short-term volatility exists, sectors like domestic consumption, defence, and selective bonds offer long-term investment opportunities. So, what is it all leading to? You have always emphasized the importance of correct asset allocation. With so many global uncertainties, domestic markets seem more manageable. For equity investors, should they focus solely on domestic assets, reduce exposure to exports and global-facing sectors, or diversify? Maneesh Dangi: I believe India is likely to outperform the US. The AI investing cycle in the US appears to be peaking, and Nasdaq faces headwinds due to its high valuations. India has underperformed emerging markets over the last 8–10 months, but this underperformance may now reverse. Over the next 6–12 months, Indian equities could perform relatively better than other emerging markets. Compared to bonds, long-term Indian bonds could deliver attractive returns over the next three years, particularly if rates fall from 7.15% to 6.15%. Short-term bonds, however, are expensive, so they may not be as appealing. Overall, a balanced portfolio with moderate equity exposure makes sense, though investors should temper expectations, as returns in India over the next year may be modest, around 10%, unlike the higher returns seen over the past five years. How should investors approach debt-to-equity allocation? Maneesh Dangi: Allocation depends on individual circumstances. For example, a senior investor might prioritize fixed-income instruments yielding 8–9%, while a younger investor could allocate more to equities. In general, compared to last year, maintaining a decent equity allocation is reasonable. Since market timing is difficult, systematic investment plans (SIPs) and staggered investments over the next 12 months are prudent. What about the dollar? Could it weaken further? Maneesh Dangi: The USD may strengthen slightly against developed markets in the event of global risk-off scenarios, but the INR has already absorbed most losses. From a domestic standpoint, the USD-INR rate is likely nearing its peak unless unexpected issues, such as tariffs, arise. And gold? Will it remain as expensive as it is now? Maneesh Dangi: Gold is expensive and largely speculative, influenced by geopolitical developments. Over long periods, it does not deliver substantial returns or dividends. It is highly cyclical, performing exceptionally well for a few years but remaining stagnant for decades. Investors should be cautious with position sizing in gold, keeping in mind that it primarily acts as an alternate currency rather than a growth asset. Live Events
