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Indian Express
a day ago
- Politics
- Indian Express
Amid Bihar's shifting sands in twilight of Nitish, Chirag Paswan eyes centrestage
Suddenly, Bihar is back in the news. After all, it was from Bihar's Madhubani that the Prime Minister first chose to declare that India would track down to the ends of the earth those responsible for the killings of 26 innocent men in Pahalgam. Narendra Modi gave an all-party meeting called by the government on April 24 – two days after the Pahalgam terror attack – a miss to attend the Madhubani rally, for which he was criticised by the Opposition. Bihar clearly holds its own importance for Modi and his party. The BJP and the RSS would like to lead a government in the state, which has so far eluded them. It is early days yet to conclude whether nationalistic fervour would inform the Bihar Assembly elections slated for this year-end, or it would be fought on 'hyper-local' issues as many believe. Interestingly, it is Chirag Paswan who has begun to stir the election pot. The Union Minister for Food Processing Industries heads a small Bihar-centric party, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas). The undivided LJP – which split in 2021 following the demise of the party founder and Chirag's father Ram Vilas Paswan – had contested the 2020 Bihar polls on its own. But the party came a cropper with only one seat to its credit. Chirag returned to the NDA fold ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections which saw his party winning all five seats it contested in Bihar. In his government 3.0, Modi inducted the LJP(RV) chief as a Cabinet minister, and there were photographs going viral of the PM and Chirag together that reflected their chemistry. Today, Chirag has emerged as a symbol of the changes that are underway in Bihar. Clearly, he has his eyes set on the Pataliputra gaddi— as he gets set to contest the Assembly polls despite being an MP. His party has passed a resolution that he will take up 'bhavishya ki zimmedari'(responsibility of the future)— in other words, the chief ministerial role, without declaring it in so many words. The NDA will be contesting the elections under incumbent CM and JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar's leadership, though. The LJP(RV)'s pitch for his 'future role' is aimed at projecting Chirag as the Dalit leadership's face – he is already considered a hero among Dalit youth – and expand his base among the Scheduled Castes (SCs), which constitute over 19% of Bihar's population. There was a split in the SCs in the state after Nitish categorised 21 of its 22 sub-castes as Mahadalits (or the more marginalised among them) who needed special government assistance, excluding just the Paswan group from it to which Chirag belongs. This created a cleavage between Paswans and Mahadalits. The Paswan community could determine the outcome of the polls in about 30 Assembly seats out of the state's 243. Chirag was said to be of the view earlier that his real challenge lay in enthusing his cadre to work with the NDA under Nitish's leadership since they were opposed to his rule. Mahadalits are part of Nitish's support base, along with Kurmis, Koeris, Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) and Pasmanda Muslims (backward Muslims), which have always stood him in good stead on the electoral front. When he joined hands with the upper castes-backed BJP, they won successive polls. When he aligned with the Mahagathbandhan led by Lalu Prasad's RJD, they emerged victorious too. However, despite playing a key role in government-formation in all elections since 2005, Nitish's party put up a poor performance in the 2020 polls, when its tally dipped to 43 seats – much below the BJP's 74 – from 71 seats in 2015. One of the reasons for the JD(U)'s dismal showing was the damage caused to it by Chirag in as many as 40 seats. In about 26 seats, the LJP(RV) polled more votes than the JD(U)'s defeat margin. With the NDA's seat-sharing exercise yet to begin, Chirag is already upping the ante to stake his claim for all those seats where his party was seen to be a factor even if it did not win those seats. Significantly, he is also keen to contest from a 'general' seat in a bid to push his base beyond Dalits. This has prompted a question whether Chirag is trying to take Nitish's place by replicating his base amid a weakening JD(U). What is apparent is that he has decided to join the race, even if it may turn out to be a marathon, for the Bihar crown, which always eluded his father. The late Ram Vilas had worked with six PMs, from VP Singh to Narendra Modi, serving as a Union minister seven times. VP Singh saw him as a potential PM in the future—and openly spoke about it. Many believe that the 2025 elections may mark the end of the Nitish Kumar era. Although the NDA is fighting the Bihar polls under Nitish's leadership so as not to rock the boat, the CM's growing health problems will make it difficult for him to continue in his position. The BJP may keep him going as the CM for a short spell if the NDA wins the polls, following which it would want to take the helm itself. The BJP is already dealing with the JD(U) mainly through its other leaders like Sanjay Jha, who was named as the head of one of the seven multi-party delegations constituted by the Centre to mobilise global support in favour of India's position in the wake of Pahalgam and Operation Sindoor. The RJD, which came close to the finishing line in 2020, has so far not been able to add to its MY (Muslim-Yadav) base by getting the support of the EBCs, which the Akhilesh Yadav-led SP managed to do in UP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, when the latter got the better of the BJP. There has also been a rumbling in the RJD's first family, with Lalu recently disowning—and expelling from the party – his elder son Tej Pratap. A new factor in the Bihar polls this time would be the Jan Suraaj led by Prashant Kishor. The election strategist-turned-politician launched his party after undertaking a two-year padyatra across the state and has created a buzz. He has repeatedly called for Bihar to move beyond the politics of 'jaati and dharma' (caste and religion) in view of the state's perennial backwardness. It is to be seen how Jan Suraaj would impact the outcome of the Bihar polls. In the Hindi heartland states, the call to go beyond caste has usually had an appeal for the middle classes and upper castes, which are seen to be the BJP's supporters in Bihar. The 'social justice' parties like the RJD and the JD(U) have their own caste-based line-ups. Chirag knows only too well that if there was something that distinguished his father from other leaders of his time— it was his ability to remain relevant despite leading a small outfit. Another thing is getting clearer: The era of Lalu and Nitish is coming to an end. On the rise are young players like Tejeshawi Yadav of the RJD, Chirag and Prashant. What is going to prove decisive ultimately will be their ability to stay the course. (Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of 'How Prime Ministers Decide')
India Today
3 days ago
- Business
- India Today
From 'Vote Katua' to Kingmaker? Chirag's return stirs unease in NDA ahead of Bihar polls
With Chirag Paswan hinting at contesting the upcoming Bihar elections, 'Chirag for CM' posters coming up across the state, and reports of his party demanding 33 seats, an eerie unease returns to the NDA, similar to the one witnessed during the 2020 Vidhan Sabha polls. Chirag aims to restore the past glory of the party and throw in his hat for the Chief Ministership in the state, staring at the political vacuum in a post-Nitish era. With the BJP still struggling to create a pan-state leader, this would pitch him in a direct battle with Tejashwi Yadav, party strategists 2020 Chacha-Bhatija SagaChirag Paswan, unhappy at being denied 30 seats in the alliance, decided to contest on a standalone basis. To the utter surprise of everyone, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) put up candidates against the JDU and not against the BJP, ostensibly at the behest of the saffron party, even fielding some rebels of the saffron party. The strategy allegedly was to weaken Nitish Kumar while at the same time crowding out the opposition and damaging Mahagathbandhan's (MGB) prospects by bagging a section of anti-NDA votes. In a very close election where NDA and MGB were tied at around 37 per cent vote share, NDA edged out MGB 125-110 in assembly strength of LJP(R) candidates received a higher number of votes than the victory margin in 73 of the 137 seats contested, damaging the prospects of NDA in 40, MGB in 32 and Others in 1 seat. Chirag specifically targeted JD(U), bagging a section of BJP voters unhappy with its decision to continue to project Nitish as chief was largely responsible for bringing down JDU's tally from 71 in 2015 to 43 in 2020. LJP(R) damaged JDU in 33 seats. In the 28 seats where JDU was runner-up, LJP(R) got more votes than the margin of victory. On five seats, it pushed JDU to the third spot, emerging as runner-up. While the party could win just one seat, it played spoilsport to the cause of JDU-LJP(R) riftLJP(R) is eyeing more seats to take advantage of a weakening JDU and the fragile health of Nitish. There is a strong historical reason for the unease in the relationship between the two parties. In its first election in Bihar in March 2005, LJP(R) emerged as the choice of Dalits, bagging a 12 per cent vote share and winning 29 seats, forcing a hung assembly. In the elections which followed in six months, while LJP(R) more or less retained the vote share, its tally fell to 10 seats, resulting in the onset of the Nitish era. The Dalit population in Bihar was 16 per cent as per the 2011 census. Acting on recommendations of the State Mahadalit Commission, Nitish created a separate category for marginalized SCs in 2007 in a bid to cultivate his constituency among them and politically weaken Ram Vilas Paswan (Chirag's late father).All Scheduled Caste groups accounting for 10 per cent of the population were included under Mahadalits, leaving out only the Paswans or Dusadhs accounting for 6 per cent. Since this move, the LJP(R)'s vote share has halved from 11 per cent in 2005 to 7 per cent in 2010 and further to 6 per cent in 2020. Its seat tally has declined from 29 in 2005 to 3 in 2010 and then to just 1 in the 2020 Vidhan Sabha polls. The LJP(R)'s clout has declined in the Nitish era as he emerged as the leader of Mahadalits, restricting Paswan's hold to just their contrasting poll fortunesLJP(R) exhibits contrasting performance in Bihar. Its tally has been reduced from three in 2010 to just one in 2020 state elections, highlighting inconsistency in its alliance strategy. In 2010, it contested with the RJD. In 2015, it shifted to a BJP-led alliance, while in 2020, it contested alone, rebelling from the NDA, or rebelling from part of the NDA. In the Lok Sabha elections, on the other hand, it has achieved a 100 per cent / near 100 per cent strike rate. It won 6/7 seats in 2014 as an NDA ally, 6/6 in 2019 and 5/5 in 2024, riding on the Modi wave during this period. Chirag's father, called a political mausam vaigyanik, shifted to NDA from UPA before the 2014 general elections, sensing public mood in favour of from 2020 DebacleThe lesson for Chirag after the 2020 debacle is that he cannot risk dabbling alone again in 2025. He was labelled a vote katua party during 2020. He needs to stick with the alliance to win a handful of seats and regain relevance in state is why, despite overzealous party workers, Chirag has clearly mentioned that there is no vacancy for the CM post in NDA, Nitish would continue to be the CM face, and that he is not throwing his hat in the ring. At the same time, he is aware that the LJP(R) brings an extra 6 per cent of votes to the alliance, and is looking to leverage it in seat distribution party's goal is to reclaim the past glory under the late Ram Vilas Paswan in state politics and equal the best-ever 12.6 per cent vote share, emerging as the choice of the entire SC community and not only Paswans/Dusadhs, which account for 5.31 per cent of population as per Bihar Caste Survey. The BJP has given an NOC to the LJP(R)'s desire to field Chirag as a candidate and that too from a general seat as the party hopes to extend influence beyond his entry may be seen suspiciously by JDU as another ploy by the BJP to weaken Nitish. BJP Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary, who nurses CM ambitions, may also not be happy at this prospect as it weakens his claim for the top post. Chirag is young and is believed to have a decent statewide presence. The BJP, which lacks leaders, wishes to pitch him against Tejashwi, who is emerging as the number one choice of the youth reeling from the unemployment Paswan has risen in the CM preference ratings in the C-Voter survey from 5.8 per cent in April to 10.6 per cent in May (+4.8 per cent). He has gained at the expense of Samrat Chaudhary, whose ratings have declined from 12.5 per cent to 6.6 per cent (-5.9 per cent).(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)Must Watch
India Today
4 days ago
- Business
- India Today
Can Prashant Kishor be the third force in Bihar?
(NOTE: This article was originally published in the India Today issue dated June 9, 2025)It's a Prashant Kishor encore, so none of the mainstream parties had exactly wished for it. The October 2024 birth of Jan Suraaj Party was preceded by a good bit of labour: two full years, about 5,000 km, of pacing up and down the natal ward of Bihar. That hard-earned paternity is now entering its logical phase: the JSP aims to make it good in the coming state election. Prashant ('PK') has hit the ground running—with a rerun. He plans to criss-cross all 243 assembly constituencies before October-November with his 'Bihar badlaw yatra'.advertisementBad law is just about right, as a spot of starting trouble proved. On May 18, under a blistering sun in Nalanda, PK found himself stopped on way to Kalyanbigha, CM Nitish Kumar's ancestral village. 'Yahaan koi British Raj hai jo gaon mein jaane ke liye aapka permission chaahiye?' he was heard fulminating, at a stone-faced SDM and a phalanx of officials. PK's caravan was out to test Nitish's three pledges on his own home turf. Had Rs 2 lakh been really given to each of the 9.4 million low-income families identified in Bihar's caste survey? Had Mahadalits been allotted land? Have land records been digitised and freed from corrupt local babus?In the event, those remained a mystery. PK turned back, and instead held a rally at Biharsharief on May 20 where he formally launched his Yatra 2.0. As his caravan rolls into each village gathering, it unfolds with the same refrain: 'You vote by caste or for 5 kg of grain. When was the last time you considered your children's future? Lalu Yadav is plotting his son's rise; what of yours? For once, look beyond the immediate.' Bihar's villagers, long habituated to transactional voting, listen in rapt silence. Something His vocabulary brims over with the promise of a post-caste politics, but as PK revs up for the hustings, the chess moves he's making show he's not without a keen eye towards the electoral potential of caste. On May 18, he secured the merger of Ramchandra Prasad 'RCP' Singh's Aap Sabki Awaaz Party into JSP. Who's RCP? An ex-bureaucrat and Nitish favourite, once his principal secretary, who leapt to great heights: JD(U) president, Rajya Sabha MP, and towards the end of that 2010-22 phase, even Union steel minister. More crucially, he's a Kurmi from Nalanda, like Nitish.'RCP's entry will fortify our appeal among a key demographic,' admits a JSP insider. RJD'sTejashwi Yadav JD(U) chief NitishKumar NUMERICAL NUANCESSimultaneously, Kishor anointed Uday Singh. Resume: younger brother of the estimable ex-bureaucrat N.K. Singh, resourceful man from a prominent family who was twice BJP MP from Purnea and, after a bitter falling out and detour in the Congress, turned a benevolent patron for JSP in its salad days. Also, a Rajput face—so saffron territory. Counting Manoj Bharti, the Dalit state chief with an IIT/IFS bio, that's three caste boxes ticked. With top-tier lieutenants in place, Kishor can devote himself to the trail, promising governance over identity nuances frame his strategy as he goes tilting at the nearly four-decade-long RJD-JD(U) duopoly, with the BJP playing the long game. As many as 40 of Bihar's 243 assembly seats had victory margins lower than 3,500 votes in 2020. In November 2024, JSP contested four bypolls and finished third in two seats. In Imamganj, its 37,103 votes ensured the RJD's defeat. Overall, JSP got approximately 10 per cent of the votes. So the sight of PK wading through rice paddies and dusty lanes, talking his new talk in cramped huts and at bustling chaupals, can't be too soothing for the entrenched to India Today MagazineMust Watch advertisement
Time of India
5 days ago
- Politics
- Time of India
RJD mocks formation of new commissions by govt in election year
Patna: A day after the NDA govt reconstituted the Mahadalit Commission and the Fishermen Commission (Machuara Ayog), the RJD on Sunday described the move as a political gimmick ahead of the upcoming Bihar assembly elections . In a social media post, the RJD referred to the reconstituted panels as a "Jhunjhuna Commission", formed merely to create an impression before the polls. The party said, "LJP, HAM, JD(U) and BJP together formed Jija-Sala, Sasur-Damaad, Beta-Bhatija Commission!" The Nitish Kumar-led govt has, in recent days, announced several commissions targeting different caste groups, including those for upper castes, Mahadalits, scheduled castes and the fishermen community. In the reconstituted Scheduled Caste Commission, Dhananjay Kumar alias Mrinal Paswan has been appointed chairman and Devendra Manjhi as vice-chairman. Mrinal is related to LJP (RV) president Chirag Paswan while Manjhi is connected to HAM (S) patron and Union minister Jitan Ram Manjhi. Manoj Kumar from Katihar has been named chairman of the Mahadalit Commission. Lalan Kumar of East Champaran has been appointed chairman of the Fishermen Commission and Ajit Chaudhary of Buxar as vice-chairman. Other members of the Fishermen Commission include Vidyasagar Singh Nishad of Samastipur, Rajkumar of Patna and Renu Singh of Bhagalpur. VIP chief Mukesh Sahani also criticised the announcement, calling it mere tokenism just months ahead of the polls. "Nitish has been in power for so long, but why did he not remember to form this commission till now?" said Sahani, who is also popularly known as the 'Son of Mallah'. The fishermen community, comprising various sub-castes, makes up approximately 8% of Bihar's population. The BJP plans to hold fishermen conferences across the state in June and July, including in Muzaffarpur (June 10), Katihar (June 14), Darbhanga (June 18), Motihari (June 22), Samastipur (June 26), Khagaria (June 30) and Patna (July 10). Sanjay Kumar of Biharsharif, Rubel Ravidas of Patna and Lalan Ram of Aurangabad have been appointed as members of the SC Commission. Ramnaresh Kumar of Vaishali, Ram Ishwar Rajak of Bhojpur and Ajit Kumar Chaudhary of Patna will serve as members of the Mahadalit Commission.
New Indian Express
21-04-2025
- Politics
- New Indian Express
Prashant Kishor demands white paper on caste survey in Bihar, threatens state-wide agitation
PATNA: Political strategist-turned activist Prashant Kishor on Monday slammed Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar over caste census, land survey and allotment of three decimals of land each to Dalit and Mahadalit families for building their houses. Kishor told the media that the people of Bihar were befooled in the name of caste-based survey as state government failed to provide Rs 2 lakh each as financial assistance to nearly 94 lakh families whose monthly income was shown below Rs 5,000 in the survey report. 'Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had announced soon after the caste-based survey report submitted to the government that Rs 2 lakh each would be given to 94 lakh families whose income was below Rs 5,000 per month. But what happened to the CM's promise?' he asked. Similarly, Nitish had promised to allot three decimals of land each to 39 lakh Dalit and Mahadalit families who didn't have their own land for building their houses. As per government reports, only 1.20 lakh families have been covered under the scheme so far, he added. In 2006, Dalit Vikas Mission was set up for uplift of Dalits and Mahadalits. Out of them, only 2.34 lakh people were allotted three decimals of land. A team of Deshpal Committee set up by the central government visited Patna. The committee in its report revealed that 1.20 lakh people were allotted land only on papers. 'These 1.20 lakh families didn't have their ownership of land provided by the state government. Jan Suraaj Party now wants to know when the remaining 48 lakh people would be given three decimals of land for building their houses on their own land,' he asked. Jan Suraaj Party founder said that land survey started in 2013 in Bihar but has not been completed as yet. On the other hands, Southern states like Telangana and Andhra Pradesh completed land survey work within the time-frame, he said. Kishor said that the Bihar government started digitisation of land records in the name of land survey. But the officials at the circle offices and deputy development commissioners were involved in neck-deep corruption and stalling the works related to land survey, he added. 'Only 20 per cent of the state's population have submitted their records of land for digitisation and subsequent land survey. The remaining 80 per cent people could not submit documents of land due to corruption at offices of circle officers and DCLRs," he remarked. The land survey is not being conducted within a stipulated period despite the government's own report that 60 per cent of the crime committed in the state were related to land disputes and property related incidents. He also sought to know from the government about Bhoodan land and land seized under Land Ceiling Act. 'Where is the land? Who are the beneficiaries? The government should provide information to the people,' Kishor asserted. Kishor said that Jan Suraaj Party would raise the issue before the last session of the state assembly. On May 11, Jan Suraaj Party would hold meetings in around 40,000 revenue villages in the state and obtain signatures people across the state. Following the meetings, a memorandum with over 1 crore signatures of the people would be submitted to chief minister and governor. In addition, the party would gherao the assembly during the last session to pressure for its demand, Kishor pointed out. He demanded a white paper on caste census within a month failing which Jan Suraaj Party would launch an agitation. In response to a media query, Jan Suraaj Party founder said that the land survey was announced by the government to create tension in respective families. 'The relationships got strained in each family due to the ongoing land survey,' he remarked. He said that had the intentions of the government fair and justified, the land survey work would have been completed within a timeframe. Moreover, it has turned out to be a boon for COs and DCLRs who are minting money in the name of providing land records, he stated. When asked about Jan Suraaj Party's protest over Waqf Amendment Bill, Kishor said that it was an eyewash. 'Those at the helm of affairs know the outcome of the Amendment Bill. Their motive is to create a division between Hindus and Muslims to derive political mileage, he asserted.
