From 'Vote Katua' to Kingmaker? Chirag's return stirs unease in NDA ahead of Bihar polls
With Chirag Paswan hinting at contesting the upcoming Bihar elections, 'Chirag for CM' posters coming up across the state, and reports of his party demanding 33 seats, an eerie unease returns to the NDA, similar to the one witnessed during the 2020 Vidhan Sabha polls. Chirag aims to restore the past glory of the party and throw in his hat for the Chief Ministership in the state, staring at the political vacuum in a post-Nitish era. With the BJP still struggling to create a pan-state leader, this would pitch him in a direct battle with Tejashwi Yadav, party strategists feel.advertisementThe 2020 Chacha-Bhatija SagaChirag Paswan, unhappy at being denied 30 seats in the alliance, decided to contest on a standalone basis. To the utter surprise of everyone, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) put up candidates against the JDU and not against the BJP, ostensibly at the behest of the saffron party, even fielding some rebels of the saffron party.
The strategy allegedly was to weaken Nitish Kumar while at the same time crowding out the opposition and damaging Mahagathbandhan's (MGB) prospects by bagging a section of anti-NDA votes. In a very close election where NDA and MGB were tied at around 37 per cent vote share, NDA edged out MGB 125-110 in assembly strength of 243.advertisement
LJP(R) candidates received a higher number of votes than the victory margin in 73 of the 137 seats contested, damaging the prospects of NDA in 40, MGB in 32 and Others in 1 seat. Chirag specifically targeted JD(U), bagging a section of BJP voters unhappy with its decision to continue to project Nitish as chief minister.LJP(R) was largely responsible for bringing down JDU's tally from 71 in 2015 to 43 in 2020. LJP(R) damaged JDU in 33 seats. In the 28 seats where JDU was runner-up, LJP(R) got more votes than the margin of victory. On five seats, it pushed JDU to the third spot, emerging as runner-up. While the party could win just one seat, it played spoilsport to the JDU.Root cause of JDU-LJP(R) riftLJP(R) is eyeing more seats to take advantage of a weakening JDU and the fragile health of Nitish. There is a strong historical reason for the unease in the relationship between the two parties. In its first election in Bihar in March 2005, LJP(R) emerged as the choice of Dalits, bagging a 12 per cent vote share and winning 29 seats, forcing a hung assembly. In the elections which followed in six months, while LJP(R) more or less retained the vote share, its tally fell to 10 seats, resulting in the onset of the Nitish era.
The Dalit population in Bihar was 16 per cent as per the 2011 census. Acting on recommendations of the State Mahadalit Commission, Nitish created a separate category for marginalized SCs in 2007 in a bid to cultivate his constituency among them and politically weaken Ram Vilas Paswan (Chirag's late father).All Scheduled Caste groups accounting for 10 per cent of the population were included under Mahadalits, leaving out only the Paswans or Dusadhs accounting for 6 per cent. Since this move, the LJP(R)'s vote share has halved from 11 per cent in 2005 to 7 per cent in 2010 and further to 6 per cent in 2020. Its seat tally has declined from 29 in 2005 to 3 in 2010 and then to just 1 in the 2020 Vidhan Sabha polls. The LJP(R)'s clout has declined in the Nitish era as he emerged as the leader of Mahadalits, restricting Paswan's hold to just their community.advertisementLJP(R)'s contrasting poll fortunesLJP(R) exhibits contrasting performance in Bihar. Its tally has been reduced from three in 2010 to just one in 2020 state elections, highlighting inconsistency in its alliance strategy. In 2010, it contested with the RJD. In 2015, it shifted to a BJP-led alliance, while in 2020, it contested alone, rebelling from the NDA, or rebelling from part of the NDA.
In the Lok Sabha elections, on the other hand, it has achieved a 100 per cent / near 100 per cent strike rate. It won 6/7 seats in 2014 as an NDA ally, 6/6 in 2019 and 5/5 in 2024, riding on the Modi wave during this period. Chirag's father, called a political mausam vaigyanik, shifted to NDA from UPA before the 2014 general elections, sensing public mood in favour of Modi.Lessons from 2020 DebacleThe lesson for Chirag after the 2020 debacle is that he cannot risk dabbling alone again in 2025. He was labelled a vote katua party during 2020. He needs to stick with the alliance to win a handful of seats and regain relevance in state politics.advertisementThis is why, despite overzealous party workers, Chirag has clearly mentioned that there is no vacancy for the CM post in NDA, Nitish would continue to be the CM face, and that he is not throwing his hat in the ring. At the same time, he is aware that the LJP(R) brings an extra 6 per cent of votes to the alliance, and is looking to leverage it in seat distribution talks.The party's goal is to reclaim the past glory under the late Ram Vilas Paswan in state politics and equal the best-ever 12.6 per cent vote share, emerging as the choice of the entire SC community and not only Paswans/Dusadhs, which account for 5.31 per cent of population as per Bihar Caste Survey. The BJP has given an NOC to the LJP(R)'s desire to field Chirag as a candidate and that too from a general seat as the party hopes to extend influence beyond Dalits.However, his entry may be seen suspiciously by JDU as another ploy by the BJP to weaken Nitish. BJP Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary, who nurses CM ambitions, may also not be happy at this prospect as it weakens his claim for the top post. Chirag is young and is believed to have a decent statewide presence. The BJP, which lacks leaders, wishes to pitch him against Tejashwi, who is emerging as the number one choice of the youth reeling from the unemployment issue.Chirag Paswan has risen in the CM preference ratings in the C-Voter survey from 5.8 per cent in April to 10.6 per cent in May (+4.8 per cent). He has gained at the expense of Samrat Chaudhary, whose ratings have declined from 12.5 per cent to 6.6 per cent (-5.9 per cent).(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)Must Watch
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