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Ya Biladi
6 days ago
- Business
- Ya Biladi
Morocco and Algeria rivalry expands into energy and trade spheres, says U.S. think tanks
The long-standing rivalry between Morocco and Algeria has moved beyond traditional political and military spheres, extending into tarde economic and diplomatic domains, according to a new analysis by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The two neighbors are increasingly using «trade and the energy sector to project power, forge new alliances, and engage in strong-arm tactics against European countries», explains Hamza Meddeb, a fellow at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center. Strategic Statecraft Through Energy and Trade According to the U.S.-based think tank, Algeria has «reshaped its position in regional and international geopolitics by aligning its food imports and energy exports with its strategic interests». This shift became apparent in 2021 when Algeria halted gas exports to Spain via Morocco amid rising tensions over the Western Sahara. Algiers has also used trade policy as a diplomatic tool, most notably when it reduced wheat imports from France following Paris's recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara. Morocco, by contrast, has leaned into renewable energy as a cornerstone of its geopolitical strategy. «Rabat has capitalized on Europe's energy transition and shifting alliances to present itself as a stable partner, a renewable energy leader, and a potential transit hub for West African gas», the paper states. Central to this strategy is the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline, which competes with «Algeria's Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, an agreement for whose launch was signed in 2002 and which was intended to carry gas from Nigeria to Europe via Algeria and Niger». Migration policy has also become a key pillar of Morocco's statecraft. Rabat has used migration control and infrastructure investments to gain diplomatic leverage. Spain backed Morocco's autonomy plan in 2022, followed by France in 2024, moves tied to Morocco's cooperation on border security and access to its growing markets. «The reason for this about-face was Madrid's desire to secure Rabat's cooperation in curbing the flow of irregular migrants to the Spanish North African enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla, as well as the Canary Islands, in 2020 and 2021», the think tank notes. Escalating Rivalry in the Sahel As their rivalry spreads southward, both countries are seeking greater influence in the fragile Sahel region. Algeria, feeling increasingly isolated, has sought to establish a Maghreb bloc that excludes Morocco. In April 2024, it hosted a high-level summit in Tunis with Libya and Tunisia, framed as a response to regional instability but seen as an attempt to assert regional leadership and marginalize Rabat. Morocco, meanwhile, launched the Atlantic Initiative in 2023, aimed at providing landlocked Sahel countries such as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso with direct access to Atlantic trade routes via Moroccan ports. However, the think tank cautions that «Morocco needs to show that its plan is not only economically feasible, but also has significant long-term political value, as opposed to being driven by its rivalry with Algeria». The report concludes that both Morocco and Algeria are «pursuing distinct, calculated strategies to position themselves as dominant powers». But in doing so, they risk exporting their rivalry to already volatile regions like the Sahel, escalating tensions and threatening broader regional stability.
Arab News
08-03-2025
- Politics
- Arab News
With Hezbollah's influence eroded, can Lebanon forge a brighter future?
DUBAI: For the first time since its creation in 1982, Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah militia has seen its political and military clout diminished after a devastating war with Israel gutted its leadership, emptied its coffers, and depleted its once formidable arsenal. Despite the grand funeral of its slain leader, Hassan Nasrallah, attended by thousands of mourners at Beirut's Camille Chamoun Stadium on Feb. 23 to project an image of resilience and strength, the group's influence over Lebanon and the wider region is undoubtedly on the wane. 'The Lebanese are certainly ready for a new period in the country where the state has a monopoly over weapons,' Michael Young, a senior editor at the Beirut-based Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, told Arab News. 'As for Hezbollah, it is not going to disappear, on the contrary, it is still around. The big question is whether it can transform itself or not.' The fall of the Bashar Assad regime in neighboring Syria — once a critical supply line for weapons from Iran — has compounded Hezbollah's woes, leaving it isolated, unable to rearm, and increasingly powerless to dictate Lebanese affairs. Hezbollah is reportedly facing a financial crisis, leaving it scrambling to provide monetary support to the families of its injured members and to finance reconstruction work in its southern and eastern strongholds devastated by Israeli bombardment. 'Some Hezbollah supporters have embraced the change while others are still screaming,' a waiter at one of the cafes along Beirut's Hamra Street who did not wanted to be identified told Arab News. 'If we have to drag them into this new era kicking and screaming, then we will. It has been about them for so many decades. They left the country broken and darkened. It's time to move on.' Many Lebanese have warmly welcomed the end of Iranian hegemony and the crippling of its biggest proxy in the Middle East. The election of former army chief Joseph Aoun as president and ICJ judge Nawaf Salam as prime minister in January is emblematic of this shift. Backed by the US, France, and Saudi Arabia, Aoun's election by Lebanese lawmakers is the clearest indication yet that Iran's influence in Lebanon is spent, opening the way to reforms and international support to help pull the nation out of the mire. Aoun's recent visit to Saudi Arabia — the first by a Lebanese leader in eight years — has been regarded as a positive step in resetting ties between the two countries. During the visit, Prime Minister and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman promised to reactivate a $3 billion funding package for the Lebanese army, and a released joint statement declared both sides are looking into ways to allow Saudi citizens to visit Lebanon again. Both countries are also looking into the resumption of Lebanese imports into the Kingdom, which had been halted due to the smuggling of millions of amphetamine and Captagon pills into the Arab Gulf states via Lebanon, often hidden in regular cargo. To be sure, not everyone in Lebanon is pleased with the dramatic political shift taking place. Hezbollah supporters have been left reeling since the loss of their charismatic leader and the forced acceptance of the US-brokered ceasefire with Israel, which has been interpreted as a major blow to the 'Axis of Resistance' of Iran-backed proxies throughout the region. 'The Shiite community in Lebanon had their golden days under Nasrallah, and now it's a new phase where they're mourning the golden days,' Hanin Ghaddar, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said in an interview with an Israeli TV channel. • Real GDP (PPP): $65.8 billion • Total population: 5.36 million • Public debt: 146.8% of GDP • Total refugees: 1.27 million+ Source: The World Factbook (CIA) Ghaddar, who is originally from southern Lebanon, said that Hezbollah called for a mass demonstration in downtown Beirut on March 8, 2005, to 'ascertain that they're taking over, inheriting the Syrian army and taking over the Lebanese institutions.' The war between Israel and the Lebanese militia began on Oct. 8, 2023, when fighters in south Lebanon began firing rockets into northern Israel in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which a day earlier had attacked southern Israel, triggering the war in Gaza. What began as a tit-for-tat exchange of fire along the Israel-Lebanon border suddenly escalated in September 2024 when Israel intensified its aerial bombardment of Hezbollah positions, attacked its communications networks, and mounted a ground offensive. On Sept. 17-18, thousands of pagers and hundreds of walkie-talkies in the possession of Hezbollah members suddenly exploded in synchronized waves after being sabotaged by Israel. The attack killed 42 and injured 3,500, crippling the militia's communications. According to one of Nasrallah's sons, Jawad, his father was left spiritually broken by the pager and walkie-talkie attack and the death of Fuad Shukr, a senior commander and long-time Hezbollah member, in an Israeli strike. In an interview with Lebanese television network Al-Manar, Jawad described his father as 'spiritless and sad' after these blows. 'You could see that he was hurt,' he said. 'There were times I could not bear to hear his voice when he was in that state. You listen to him trying to seek encouragement, but once you hear his voice, it hurts your heart. Later, I learned that he was crying.' On Sept. 27, 2024, Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike on an underground Hezbollah headquarters in Beirut's Dahiyeh suburb. The attack, carried out by Israeli F-15I fighter jets, involved more than 80 bombs, destroying the bunker and nearby buildings. The Israel military confirmed Nasrallah's death on Sept. 28, and his body was recovered the following day. The strike resulted in at least 33 deaths and nearly 200 injuries, including civilians. As the conflict threatened to drag the US and Iran into direct confrontation, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Israel trading missile strikes, the international community acted to secure a ceasefire in November 2024, which has by and large held. Hezbollah's battering by Israel has left it politically enfeebled, allowing independent lawmakers and parties not affiliated with the militia to establish a new government after more than two years of political deadlock. 'Up to now there are no signs that the party is going through a reassessment of its previous strategy, although some say within the party such discussions are taking place,' Carnegie Middle East Center's Young told Arab News. 'Given the hardening of the Iranian position recently, with Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei saying there can be no negotiations with America, I am not sure that is correct.' Lebanon remains in the midst of a devastating economic crisis, with the local currency having lost more than 90 percent of its value since 2019 and up to 80 percent of the population living in poverty — at least 40 percent of them in extreme poverty. Unemployment rates have skyrocketed and banks continue to impose strict controls on withdrawals and transfers. Meanwhile, the World Bank estimates it will cost $8.5 billion to repair the damage of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. For the thousands of Lebanese who were forced to flee their homes in the south under Israel's bombardment, the mere suggestion that Hezbollah was somehow victorious in the conflict, as some hardline supporters like to claim, is utterly delusional. 'If my parents return to their village, when should we expect them to be expelled again?' Ali, a university student who now lives with his parents in a cramped Beirut apartment and did not want to give his full name, told Arab News. 'How many more times? We are caught in the crossfire, doomed to be a football between Hezbollah and Israel. 'We are tired of being kicked around. It is shameful. Then you get a deluded supporter who tells you we've won. What did we win?' The international community and Arab donors have so far refused to release any aid funds until UN Security Council Resolution 1701 is fully implemented, which calls for the disarmament and disbanding of all armed groups in the country except for the Lebanese army. After several years of political gridlock and a power vacuum once filled by Hezbollah and the Amal bloc led by Nabih Berri, Lebanon is now in a unique position to stabilize and integrate itself once again into the Arab fold. President Aoun's remarks during the Arab League summit in Cairo on March 4 reflect his apparent determination to set Lebanon on this new course, with some describing his speech as 'resistance through diplomacy.' The Washington Institute's Ghaddar believes that while the current phase may not be 'the end of Hezbollah for the (Lebanese Shiite) community,' the lack of money, jobs, services, and reconstruction has led people to seek alternatives. 'It's very clear that Hezbollah is no longer an option for them,' she said in the interview with the Israeli TV channel. Today, 'Hezbollah is a new entity, which cannot provide, cannot protect, obviously cannot preserve, and cannot rebuild.'
