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‘Extremely distressing' Chesapeake Bay blue crab populations call for curtailing harvest, experts say
Blue crab populations in the Chesapeake Bay took a sizable hit in 2025, marking a need for more cautious harvest regulations, some environmentalists say.
Each winter, the Maryland Department of Natural Resources and the Virginia Institute of Marine Science at William & Mary cooperate on a dredge survey to record the population of blue crabs. During the survey, biologists use dredge equipment to capture, measure, record and release blue crabs at 1,500 sites throughout the Chesapeake Bay from December through March. VIMS covers the entire Virginia portion of Chesapeake Bay, sampling more than 750 stations.
This year, the survey found there are about 238 million blue crabs in the Chesapeake Bay, a decrease from last year's 317 million crabs. The decline was seen in pretty much all demographics, including adult male crabs at 26 million, adult female crabs at 108 million, and juvenile crabs at 103 million. According to Chesapeake Progress, a tool created to track and report the bay's restoration, a sustainable population must have at least 72 million females, and the ultimate goal is 196 million females.
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Crab populations can fluctuate since their success can depend on multiple factors. These include weather, the population of their predators, and the availability of their habitat, and often, populations can experience a 'boom-or-bust' cycle. Mandy Bromilow, blue crab program manager for the Maryland Department of Natural Resources, said freezing temperatures earlier in the year likely had an impact on survivorship. She said this means crabs had a 'very high mortality rate,' and the results mark the second lowest population since the surveys began in 1990. The lowest population was reported in 2022.
Chris Moore, the Virginia executive director for the Chesapeake Bay Foundation, said this year's blue crabs survey is 'extremely distressing.' According to the foundation, the loss of critical crab habitat like underwater grasses and the rise of invasive predators like blue catfish can threaten blue crabs. Other factors like climate change and polluted runoff can also be detrimental for young and spawning crabs.
'Blue crabs are a staple on our plates, in our water and in our culture,' Moore said. 'We must protect them in order to ensure their important role in the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem and preserve sustainable harvests for the most valuable commercial fishery in the bay. Given the continued decline of males in the population, Virginia should look for ways to reduce harvest of male crabs — which has been a growing part of our crab harvest.'
According to the Virginia Marine Resources Commission, located in Hampton, Virginia's adaptive approach to fisheries management 'continues to effectively address the highly dynamic nature of the Chesapeake Bay's blue crab population.' Last year, Virginia reduced its crab harvest from the bay by 18%, and the Potomac River Fisheries Commission reduced harvest by 14%. Maryland increased its 2024 harvest by 1%, and the combined result was a harvest reduction of about 7% across the bay.
'While this year's survey shows a decline in overall abundance, Virginia watermen have experienced good catch rates so far this season,' Jamie Green, a marine resources commissioner, said in a statement. 'These kinds of fluctuations are not unusual in a dynamic system like the Chesapeake Bay, and they reinforce why our adaptive management approach is so critical.'
Next year, Virginia and Maryland researchers will complete a comprehensive stock assessment for blue crabs — the first time since 2011. While the dredge survey provides a snapshot in time, the comprehensive stock assessment provides a more well-rounded view of what factors are affecting blue crabs using years of data. Once the assessment is complete, marine life managers then use that data to regulate harvest rates. The assessment will be completed by March 2026.
'With the results of the stock assessment next year, we hope to have more insight on what could be contributing to the ongoing low juvenile recruitment and what we can do to support the Chesapeake Bay's blue crabs,' Bromilow said. 'Until then, we need to maintain caution in our management approach for blue crabs.'
Eliza Noe,
