Latest news with #MarcChandler
Business Recorder
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Surprise jobs gain helps Canadian dollar hold on to weekly move higher
TORONTO: The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Friday but was holding on to a weekly gain, as stronger-than-expected domestic jobs data bolstered expectations the Bank of Canada would keep rates on hold next month. The loonie was trading nearly 0.1% lower at 1.3685 per U.S. dollar, or 73.07 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3661 to 1.3704. On Thursday, the currency touched an eight-month high at 1.3632, while it was on track for a weekly gain of 0.4%. Canada's economy added 8,800 jobs last month, compared to an expected decline of 12,500. The unemployment rate, however, climbed to 7%, its highest level in almost nine years, excluding the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. 'A lot of part-time jobs were lost and they became full-time jobs. Net-net I think it's a good thing,' said Marc Chandler,chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC. 'It's also clear that the Bank of Canada is not going to be in a hurry to cut rates again. There still might be another rate cut coming but later this year.' Investors see a 73% chance the BoC keeps its benchmark interest rate on hold at 2.75% in July, up from 67% before the data. On Wednesday, the central bank refrained from cutting rates for a second straight meeting, citing the need to study the effects of U.S. trade policy. U.S. jobs data was also stronger than expected, which boosted the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, rose on optimism about U.S.-China trade talks. U.S. crude oil futures traded nearly 2% higher at $64.62 a barrel. Canadian bond yields moved higher across the curve, tracking moves in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year was up 7.2 basis points at 3.327%, trading at its highest level since May 26.
CNBC
6 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Expect another 5% decline in the U.S. dollar this year, says Bannockburn's Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Capital Markets chief market strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the pullback in the U.S. dollar, impact of tariffs and monetary policy, why he sees more trouble ahead for the greenback, and more.
Business Recorder
13-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Dollar jumps after US, China reach trade deal
NEW YORK: The dollar surged on Monday as the United States and China reached a deal to temporarily cut reciprocal tariffs, easing concerns a trade war between the world's two biggest economies could lead to a global recession. The US will reduce extra tariffs it imposed on Chinese imports in April to 30% from 145% and Chinese duties on US imports will fall to 10% from 125%, effective for 90 days. The de-escalation surpassed investor expectations, with many expecting an introductory round of talks with few, if any, agreements. 'It's 90 days and so this basically buys some more time, I sort of think the US blinked,' said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. 'I'm not a big fan of the tariffs in the first place, but once they were in place, the US seemed to back down without getting much in exchange. That is, we stopped with our reciprocal tariffs on China and so they unwind their reciprocal tariffs on us, but we're still back at square one.' The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 1.2% to 101.58, with the euro down 1.17% at $1.1115 and on track for its biggest one-day decline of the year. The risk-on mood propelled US stocks sharply higher, with the S&P 500 up more than 2%, and weighed on safe-haven currencies, with the dollar up 1.91% against the Japanese yen to 148.12 after reaching 148.59, its highest level since April 3. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar rose 1.4% to 0.843 after reaching 0.8475, its highest since April 10. Sterling weakened 0.8% to $1.3198 and was on track for its biggest daily drop since April 7. While the greenback has strengthened for three straight weeks on growing optimism over potential trade deals, the dollar is still down 2.2% since April 2, when Trump announced sweeping tariffs as his uneven rollout of policies and exemptions shook confidence in US assets. The focus this week will also be on US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Tuesday and on April retail sales due on Thursday for indications of how the global trade conflict has impacted the economy and expectations for further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Traders on Monday dialed back on rate cut expectations by the Fed and European Central Bank as economic prospects improved after the Sino-US trade deal. Markets now see the first cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) from the Fed as likely to come at the central bank's September meeting, compared with the July view last week. The Chinese yuan strengthened 0.64% against the greenback to 7.194 per dollar. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions also appeared to ease over the weekend, further supporting risk sentiment. India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire following four days of fighting between the nuclear powers which had rattled markets. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was ready to meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Turkey on Thursday for direct talks. That would be the first negotiations between the two countries since the early months of Russia's 2022 invasion. .
Reuters
17-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Canadian dollar heads for seventh straight weekly gain as oil prices jump
TORONTO, April 17 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar moved closer on Thursday to a recent five-month high against its U.S. counterpart as oil prices rose and one day after the Bank of Canada paused its interest rate cutting campaign. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3845 per U.S. dollar, or 72.23 U.S. cents, after touching on Monday its strongest level since November 6 at 1.3827. For the week, the loonie was up 0.1%, which would be its seventh straight week of gains, the longest such stretch since May 2021. The currency has benefited from recent broad-based declines for the U.S. dollar, said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. Concerns over the economic impact of tariffs and investors shifting investments outside the United States led to the greenback hitting a three-year low last week against a basket of major currencies. "The 200-day moving average comes in right above 1.40 so I think that's the top of the range (for USD-CAD)," Chandler said. "I think we might have to test that but I think the next big move is probably still lower." The price of oil , one of Canada's major exports, increased 3.5% to $64.63 a barrel after the U.S. imposed new sanctions to curb Iranian oil exports, elevating supply concerns. The held its benchmark rate at 2.75% on Wednesday, its first pause after seven consecutive cuts, and said the uncertainty around U.S. tariffs made it impossible to issue regular economic forecasts. Despite tensions between Canada and the United States, Canadians bought a record amount of American shares in February, as U.S. stock markets hit an all-time high. Canadian bond yields were mixed across a steeper curve, with the market set for an early close ahead of the Good Friday holiday. The 10-year was up 3.9 basis points at 3.118%, extending its rebound from an eight-day low at 3.073% that it touched during Wednesday's session.
Yahoo
13-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Market chaos signals 'sell America' trade as Trump tariff whipsaw threatens to upend the US economy's soft landing
It was a chaotic week for markets as Trump's tariff whipsaw sent US equities on a volatile ride and investors fled traditional safe-haven assets, escalating concerns over the stability of the US economy. Risk-off investments aggressively sold off, with long-term Treasurys logging their biggest upside swing since 1982 while the US dollar sharply weakened against foreign currencies. It's an unusual development as concerns over stagflation, where growth stalls, inflation persists, and unemployment rises, have kept Wall Street on edge that shifting trade dynamics could induce a self-inflicted recession. In that scenario, investors would typically flock to safe havens like bonds or US currencies in order to hedge themselves against volatility. Quite dramatically, that hasn't been the case — and it could signal an unsettling fundamental shift across global financial markets. "I do think it's severe," Marc Chandler, global foreign exchange chief market strategist at Bannockburn, told Yahoo Finance when asked about the sell-off in the US dollar and bond market. "People are concerned that maybe we're seeing a capital strike against the US, where large pools of capital are selling US assets and taking their money home." Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha described recent trading action as a "rare, ugly, and worrying combination of market moves" that reflects "evaporating US growth exceptionalism." Kathy Jones, chief rates strategist at Charles Schwab, added in a post on X that the double drop in Treasurys and the dollar "suggests foreign and domestic investors are concerned about US economic outlook." In other words, a possible "sell America" trade could be brewing. "All of these [moves] really point to a coordinated move away from US assets," Mike Dickson, head of research and quantitative strategies at Horizon Investments, told Yahoo Finance on Friday. "That is a trend that is likely to persist here in the short to medium term." Trump's trade war has largely been blamed for the chaos. "Whipsaw is definitely the right word for this," Michael Darda, chief economist and macro strategist at Roth Capital Partners, told Yahoo Finance's Market Domination in an interview on Thursday. "Financial markets are being whipsawed, and that's due to public policy being chaotic." To recap: Trump pivoted Wednesday on enacting reciprocal tariffs on non-retaliatory countries. Markets initially praised the development before sharply reversing course as Trump doubled down on his trade war with China. The tariff increase on China has pushed the overall US average effective tariff rate to 27%, the highest level since 1903. That run-up will likely trickle through to the prices consumers pay. "If, in the short run, we have a big pullback in the supply of goods, that could show up in higher consumer prices," Claudia Sahm, former Federal Reserve Board economist and current New Century Advisors chief economist, told Yahoo Finance's Morning Brief on Thursday. "T-shirts could be the new eggs here shortly." Darda placed the odds of the US entering a recession this year at a 50/50 probability, adding, "It's a shame because it looked like the Federal Reserve essentially had this soft landing in the bag." "But this huge tariff disruption, which is not over, has really thrown a monkey wrench into the soft landing," he continued. "It puts the Fed in a terrible position where now they have to worry about downside risks to growth. At the same time, there are short-term upside risks to inflation." All of these risks have kept the Fed in "wait-and-see" mode when it comes to interest rates, which remain at restrictive levels following an easing pause at the start of the year. "If the Fed is sort of paralyzed here and the economy's weakening," Darda warned, "that really does increase the risks of a downturn." Alexandra Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at
