30-06-2025
The Illan Meslier debate: Is this the window for Leeds to cash in?
When Leeds United last changed divisions, Illan Meslier was advised to leave. Two years on, the goalkeeper may be hearing similar noises from those people closest to him.
In the weeks after the club was relegated from the Premier League in 2023, United's then goalkeeping coach, Marcos Abad, had suggested it may be the right time for Meslier to end his time in West Yorkshire. Earlier this year, the Spaniard, now with Carlos Corberan at Valencia, told The Athletic of that exchange.
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'My advice was that maybe he had to leave, but he wanted to stay, to be promoted again with Leeds,' he said. 'I understand (his decision), but, sometimes, as a goalkeeper, it's important to know when you have to leave because, if not, it's like every single action is going to be analysed very deeply. This is not healthy. This is not helpful.'
Even with his promotion mission accomplished, is now the right time for Meslier to take one of those turns at the summer crossroads? Last week's transfer links with Fenerbahce brought the debate into sharp focus.
As of June 24, when the Fenerbahce reports surfaced, Leeds had not received any bids for Meslier, let alone reached an agreement for his sale. Yet, regardless of whether anything materialises with the Turkish club, Meslier's future is up for debate, not least because Daniel Farke dropped him towards the end of last season.
For the final seven matches, understudy Karl Darlow was trusted to get the club's promotion bid over the line. Meslier's errors in the March 29 draw with Swansea City proved to be the final straw for the manager, but the Frenchman is understood to have held his hands up post-match.
Speaking to Fozcast – The Ben Foster Podcast in late May, Patrick Bamford said Meslier had backed Darlow in the dressing room after the Swansea draw and accepted his fate. The 25-year-old may have swallowed that outcome across a seven-match run-in, but after nearly 250 senior appearances in his career, he is unlikely to favour a season-long backup role.
Leeds are pursuing a new goalkeeper this summer and whether Meslier is actively asked to find a new club or not, he may sense the writing is on the wall. Accurate, advanced links to stoppers have been thin on the ground during this window, but Nick Pope is one name that has gathered traction with some outlets.
If Newcastle United do sign James Trafford this summer, sources close to Pope, who remained anonymous to protect relationships, have indicated the veteran will stay at St James' Park and fight for his place. While Pope seems unlikely to be the solution at Leeds, Meslier's contract is another reason this debate should come to a head this summer.
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The No 1 has 12 months remaining on his deal, meaning the current window is the last realistic opportunity to achieve a fee for him without offering a fresh contract. Based on how last season finished and how big a chasm Leeds need to bridge to the top flight, a new contract for Meslier would be a major surprise.
That existing contract was signed in 2021, at the peak of Meslier's stock in Leeds colours. It was off the back of that unforgettable ninth-placed finish in the Premier League under Marcelo Bielsa. Meslier had not been perfect between the sticks, but he felt like the future of the club in that position at 21.
Meslier conceded 52 goals during that 2020-21 campaign, while the expected goal (xG) data shows he should have let in 46.6 strikes. He is excused from the two own goals which went in, leaving him with a negative balance of 3.4 preventable goals.
Of the goalkeepers who played at least 900 minutes that season, seven performed worse by this metric. For example, Crystal Palace's Vicente Guaita conceded 64 goals against an expected tally of only 50.2, placing him at the bottom of that season's list.
In 2021-22, as Leeds fell down the table, Meslier became the worst-performing goalkeeper in the division. He conceded 16.2 more goals than the data suggested he should. He was only marginally better in 2022-23.
As Leeds were relegated from the top flight, Meslier conceded 12.4 more goals than expected, which was only better than Southampton's Gavin Bazunu that year. He then stuck around in the Championship, as we know, but even in a team competing for promotion, Meslier was not among the best-performing goalkeepers.
In 2023-24, he conceded 3.1 more goals than the data expected him to. By comparison, Mads Hermansen, at title-winning Leicester City, prevented 5.7 more goals than expected. Last season, Meslier's form improved to only 0.4 more concessions than expected, but Burnley's James Trafford and Sheffield United's Michael Cooper prevented 11.8 and 6.5 more strikes than expected, respectively.
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Leeds may have virtually conceded the number of goals they were expected to last season, but they will need their stopper to outperform the data next term. Beyond the data, the errors Meslier committed are what team-mates and fans will struggle to forget.
As Abad said, if he remains United's No 1, every single action will be analysed very deeply from August onwards.
(Top photos: Getty Images)
