Latest news with #MarkDiffley
Rhyl Journal
02-05-2025
- Politics
- Rhyl Journal
Labour has ‘largely lost' its gains in Scotland, says polling expert
Mark Diffley, founder of the research agency Diffley Partnership, was speaking as a new poll showed the SNP comfortably ahead of Scottish Labour in the run up to next May's Holyrood election. The Survation survey, carried out on behalf of Diffley Partnership, found 36% of people are planning to vote for John Swinney's party on the constituency section of the ballot, with 28% saying they will support the SNP on the regional list section of the vote. Support for Anas Sarwar's Scottish Labour is at 22% on both the constituency and the regional list ballot, the poll found. A total of 1,005 Scots were asked about how they intend to vote, with the polling taking place between April 16 and 22. Mr Diffley told BBC Radio Scotland's Good Morning Scotland programme that 'the SNP has revived somewhat since its drubbing at the general election last year' – when it saw its seat tally at Westminster fall to just nine. Labour won that election in Scotland and across the UK, but Mr Diffley said the party is now 'making no progress whatsoever and is polling pretty much where it was in the Holyrood election in 2021″. He added: 'The gains Labour made last year have now largely been lost.' According to the poll, support for the Scottish Conservatives is at 13% on the constituency vote and 16% on the regional list, while Reform UK is put at 14% and 12%. Analysis by Diffley Partnership for The Herald newspaper found these results would give the SNP 57 seats at Holyrood – still the largest party but down from the 64 it won in 2021 when Nicola Sturgeon was still leader. Labour would see its number of MSPs increase by three to 25, according to the analysis, while the Conservatives would fall from 31 to 17. Reform UK is projected to have 12 MSPs, which would be the first time it has won seats at Holyrood. The Greens and Liberal Democrats could also see their number of MSPs rise, to 10 and eight respectively, the research suggests. The poll comes as Nigel Farage's party made gains in local elections south of the border, winning the Runcorn and Helsby by-election from Labour, while former Tory minister Dame Andrea Jenkyns was elected for Reform as the first Greater Lincolnshire mayor with a majority of almost 40,000 over her old party. Mr Diffley said: 'The story last night in England was the rise of Reform, and both the polling and what we're seeing in things like local council by-elections in Scotland is Reform, maybe not to the same extent, but at least somewhat on the march in Scotland as well, polling 14% in the constituency vote intention and 12% in the regional list vote intention.' He added that in next month's Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Holyrood by-election, 'one of the big stories will be how well Reform do'. The elections expert said: 'We don't expect they'll win, but they will eat into both the Conservative and Labour vote, I am pretty sure of that.' SNP MSP George Adam said the Survation poll 'shows clearly that the people of Scotland are putting their trust in the SNP to deliver in Government and offer hope for a better future'. He added: 'People across Scotland are disappointed by Labour's broken promises, and Sir Keir Starmer's premiership has thus far been a litany of failures that have pulled vital support from Scotland's pensioners, presided over soaring household bills, and given billions to industrial projects in England – while treating Scotland as an after-thought. 'Under John Swinney's leadership, the Scottish Parliament is delivering on the issues that matter most to people in Scotland – improving the NHS, taking tangible action on the cost of living, and investing in our public services. 'While these polls are encouraging, the SNP takes no vote for granted and will continue to listen to the public, deliver for them in Government and work towards a brighter future for Scotland.'
The National
02-05-2025
- Politics
- The National
Scottish Labour gains have been 'largely lost', says polling expert
Mark Diffley, founder of the research agency Diffley Partnership, was speaking as a new poll showed the SNP comfortably ahead of Scottish Labour in the run up to next May's Holyrood election. The Survation survey, carried out on behalf of Diffley Partnership, found 36% of people are planning to vote for John Swinney's party on the constituency section of the ballot, with 28% saying they will support the SNP on the regional list section of the vote. Support for Anas Sarwar's Scottish Labour is at 22% on both the constituency and the regional list ballot, the poll found. A total of 1005 Scots were asked about how they intend to vote, with the polling taking place between April 16 and 22. READ MORE: John Curtice gives verdict as Reform UK win Runcorn by-election Diffley told BBC Radio Scotland's Good Morning Scotland programme that 'the SNP has revived somewhat since its drubbing at the General Election last year' – when it saw its seat tally at Westminster fall to just nine. Labour won that election in Scotland and across the UK, but Diffley said the party is now 'making no progress whatsoever and is polling pretty much where it was in the Holyrood election in 2021″. He added: 'The gains Labour made last year have now largely been lost.' According to the poll, support for the Scottish Conservatives is at 13% on the constituency vote and 16% on the regional list, while Reform UK is put at 14% and 12%. Analysis by Diffley Partnership for The Herald newspaper found these results would give the SNP 57 seats at Holyrood – still the largest party but down from the 64 it won in 2021 when Nicola Sturgeon was still leader. (Image: Jane Barlow) Labour would see its number of MSPs increase by three to 25, according to the analysis, while the Conservatives would fall from 31 to 17. Reform UK is projected to have 12 MSPs, which would be the first time it has won seats at Holyrood. The Greens and LibDems could also see their number of MSPs rise, to 10 and eight respectively, the research suggests. READ MORE: Welsh First Minister says Labour MPs 'not standing up' for nation The poll comes as Nigel Farage's party made gains in local elections south of the border, winning the Runcorn and Helsby by-election from Labour, while former Tory minister Dame Andrea Jenkyns was elected for Reform as the first Greater Lincolnshire mayor with a majority of almost 40,000 over her old party. Diffley said: 'The story last night in England was the rise of Reform, and both the polling and what we're seeing in things like local council by-elections in Scotland is Reform, maybe not to the same extent, but at least somewhat on the march in Scotland as well, polling 14% in the constituency vote intention and 12% in the regional list vote intention.' He added that in next month's Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Holyrood by-election, 'one of the big stories will be how well Reform do'. The elections expert said: 'We don't expect they'll win, but they will eat into both the Conservative and Labour vote, I am pretty sure of that.' SNP MSP George Adam said the Survation poll 'shows clearly that the people of Scotland are putting their trust in the SNP to deliver in Government and offer hope for a better future'. He added: 'People across Scotland are disappointed by Labour's broken promises, and Sir Keir Starmer's premiership has thus far been a litany of failures that have pulled vital support from Scotland's pensioners, presided over soaring household bills, and given billions to industrial projects in England – while treating Scotland as an after-thought. 'Under John Swinney's leadership, the Scottish Parliament is delivering on the issues that matter most to people in Scotland – improving the NHS, taking tangible action on the cost of living, and investing in our public services. 'While these polls are encouraging, the SNP takes no vote for granted and will continue to listen to the public, deliver for them in Government and work towards a brighter future for Scotland.'
The National
29-04-2025
- Politics
- The National
Poll: Tory and Reform voters more likely to back majoritarian government
Survey work completed by the Diffley Partnership for Electoral Reform Society (ERS) Scotland also found that Scots are more likely to trust their local supermarket than the police, courts, councils, or national parliaments. To produce the results which highlighted a divide between Reform and Tory voters and other parties' supporters, the poll of 1005 Scots adults asked people to say which of two statements came closest to their view: 1: 'Parliament should consider all opinions before enacting new laws, even if it takes longer to get things done' – or 'Parliament should be able to quickly and efficiently enact new laws, even if it means ignoring some opinions'. 2: 'It is important that the seats in Parliament reflect the results of elections proportionally' – or 'It is important that the seats in Parliament lead to a majority Government'. 3: 'I prefer a leader who seeks consensus before making decisions' – or 'I prefer a strong leader who makes decisions without compromise'. 4: 'Equality and diversity must be considered when making decisions' – or 'The pursuit of equality and diversity gets in the way of making decisions'. It found that, overall, Scots opted for the choice which involved more collaboration and careful deliberation. On question one, 73% said all opinions should be considered while 27% preferred rapid action. On question three, 72% preferred a leader who seeks consensus while 28% backed one who acted without compromise. The Diffley Partnership reported that the options which represent 'majoritarian' views were more likely to be supported by Tory and Reform voters, by men, and by over 55s. READ MORE: 'What changed?': Labour MP pans party's broken pledges as Grangemouth refining ends Data showed that among Tory voters, 35% backed at least three out of four of the majoritarian options, while 27% of Reform voters did so. This compared to 15% of SNP and Labour voters, 14% of LibDem voters, and just 5% of Green voters. Elsewhere, 21% of men backed at least three out of four of the majoritarian options compared to 14% of women, and 23% of over 55s did so, compared to 13% of people aged 16-54. The polling also asked Scottish adults to rate how much it trusted public bodies, figures, and institutions on a scale of 1-10. Averaged out, it found that Scots gave the NHS a rating of 6.5 – the highest in the country. In second place were supermarkets, with a rank of 5.5. This was above the police (5.2), the banks (5.1), the courts (4.9), and the local council (4.1). National parliaments and politicians came bottom of the pile, although trust was shown to be higher in the Scottish Parliament (3.9) than the UK Parliament (3.4). Political parties scored 3.1, while politicians scored just 2.8. The polling results were presented by Mark Diffley, the director of the Diffley Partnership, to ERS Scotland's conference.
