Latest news with #MarkMalek
CNA
4 days ago
- Business
- CNA
Stocks lower but set for strong monthly gain despite tariff uncertainty
NEW YORK :Global stocks were down on Friday but were set to notch a weekly gain as well as the biggest monthly increase since late 2023 despite markets having been roiled by uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariff policies. Sentiments were initially buoyed at the start of the week by signs of an easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe, after President Donald Trump delayed planned tariffs on imports from the EU. Investor focus then shifted to earnings of artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia, which later reported better-than-expected results mid-week. But markets were briefly shaken following an unexpected ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade striking down Trump's so-called Liberation Day tariffs, triggering a court drama that saw an appellate court temporarily reinstate them. "It's been quite a week," said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at SiebertNXT. "Within four days we got a compressed version of what we've had for the entire month, which is the tug of war between forces that drove markets higher last year and the prior year - that being AI and technology growth stocks - and then this looming challenge we have with all these administration tariffs." On Wall Street, all three main indexes were trading lower on the session, dragged by weaknesses in technology, energy and materials stocks. They were, however, set to end the week and the month higher, with the benchmark S&P 500 index poised to snap three straight months of declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.14 per cent to 42,155.39, the S&P 500 eased 0.33 per cent to 5,892.70 and the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.57 per cent to 19,065.61. European shares were mostly higher and set for a weekly gain and to add 4 per cent for the month of May. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed up 0.72 per cent overnight, ending the week lower but gaining nearly 5 per cent for the month. MSCI's main world index was down 0.24 per cent to 878.15, but was on track to gain more than 1 per cent for the week and more than 5 per cent in May - making it the biggest monthly gain since November 2023. Data showed on Friday that U.S. consumers had increased their spending marginally in April, and the closely-watched Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.1 per cent last month, in line with expectations. Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell had their first face-to-face meeting on Thursday. Afterwards a Fed statement said: "Powell did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook." The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 1.2 basis points to 4.412 per cent. The 30-year bond yield fell 0.3 basis points to 4.9203 per cent. The dollar was higher against major peers including the euro and on track for a monthly gain against the Japanese yen. The dollar weakened 0.01 per cent to 144.18 against the yen, while the euro was down 0.19 per cent at $1.1349. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.18 per cent to 99.44. It was on track for the fifth straight month of losses, weighed down by tariff uncertainty. Oil prices fell and were headed for a second consecutive weekly loss, as investors weigh a potentially larger OPEC+ output hike for July. Brent crude futures fell 0.44 per cent to $63.87 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.1 per cent to $60.27 a barrel. Gold prices slipped as the dollar edged higher. Spot gold fell 0.78 per cent to $3,289.91 an ounce. U.S. gold futures slipped 0.93 per cent to $3,286.40 an ounce.
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Dip Buyers Race to Stocks as Bond Market Shrugs Off US Downgrade
(Bloomberg) -- Stock traders knew it was an ugly setup entering Monday, with futures lower in premarket action and Treasury yields racing higher after Moody's downgraded the US debt at the very end of last week. America, 'Nation of Porches' NJ Transit Train Engineers Strike, Disrupting Travel to NYC NJ Transit Makes Deal With Engineers, Ending Three-Day Strike NYC Commuters Brace for Chaos as NJ Transit Strike Looms But then a weird thing happened as trading got underway: The bond market calmed down. The yield on 10-year Treasuries, which had leaped the highest since February, began to fall, eventually dropping below where it started the session. That gave small investors in the stock market the all-clear sign to buy the dip, dragging the S&P 500 Index most of the way out of a decline that had reached more than 1% to finish up 0.1%. And with that, the lightning-quick $8.5 trillion rally in US stocks kept running for another day. 'At the moment, the fear of missing the bounce and follow-through is stronger than the prospect of anything going wrong with US's credit rating from late-to-the-table Moody's,' said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert. 'That does not mean that there is no 'real' risk associated with the downgrade, if something goes wrong with trade negotiations, all bets are off.' Stocks, which are riskier than bonds, are highly sensitive to credit-rating downgrades. When investors get worried about a government's ability to pay its debts, they pull money out of equities and pile into safer assets, which usually means US Treasuries. Many professional investors have sold their equity holdings, leaving the market to the retail crowd. 'There was not a lot of news in the downgrade, and then the bigger dynamic is that many investors are sitting on sidelines so any pullback is leading to dip buying,' said Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat Capital. Fed Model A variety of impulses were behind Monday's stock market rebound. House Republicans moved a tax-cut bill that's expected to stimulate growth out of committee, bringing it closer to passage in that chamber. A barometer of the cost of US equities versus Treasuries, known as the Fed Model, is signaling that yields can move higher before the damage spills over into the stock market. However, some Wall Street pros question the significance of the measurement. 'The model has been showing that the S&P 500 is undervalued since 2005 no matter what,' said Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research, who coined the term Fed Model. 'So it kept you in the stock market for sure.' And then there's Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, who's urging investors to step into any dips in stocks as the odds of a recession have fallen based on the trade truce between the US and China. That sentiment was echoed by strategists at HSBC, who see the US-China trade deal was a game-changer for stocks, adding that sentiment and positioning are sending the 'strongest buy signal in earnest since 2022.' Moody's Ratings downgraded US Treasuries to Aa1 from Aaa after the market close on Friday, citing a deepening concern that ballooning federal debt and deficits will damage America's standing as the preeminent destination for global capital and increase the government's borrowing costs. 'The stock market is immune in the same way that one gets immunity from having survived an illness,' Malek said. 'The market has survived such extremes in the past five years, what we now consider a common cold would have been a plague ten years ago.' Bond yields jumped early Monday, and as of 9 a.m. the 10-year and 30-year had both climbed nine basis points to 4.56% and 5.04%, respectively. But they quickly simmered and kept falling. By the time stocks stopped trading, the 10-year yield was down three basis points to 4.45%, and the 30-year had fallen four basis points to 4.9%. Market's Message 'The downgrade seemed out of touch with the market's message,' said Chris Verrone, head of technical and macro strategy at Strategas Securities. 'What the move in rates is not hitting, at least so far, is cyclicality. We'd be more uncomfortable with yields if this was not the case.' Indeed, strength in cyclical sectors that has been sending a bullish signal for stocks, continued Monday with industrials and consumer staples in the green. The earnings yield on S&P 500 has been sitting below what's offered by 10-year Treasuries since early 2024, a development that before last year was seen in the aftermath of the dot-com bubble. As a general rule, the higher the gap between the payout that stocks offer next to bonds, the better, as investors get compensated for the risk associated with investing in stocks. But the valuation argument is just one factor among many, and abandoning stocks just for that reason would have meant missing out on a 23% rally last year. This is why so many Wall Street pros say the Moody's action doesn't spoil the stock market party, at least not yet. For a more persistent fall in the S&P 500 and risk assets, strategists at HSBC said interest rate expectations need to be climbing higher and the 10-year yield has to rise above 4.7%. 'Until that is the case we'd view any fall in risk assets as an opportunity to scale up exposure,' they wrote in a note to clients. RBC Capital Markets' head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina said that if the 10-year yield rises to 5.3% or more while stocks' earnings yield stays stable, that would represent a range that has been historically troublesome for the stock market in the past. Whenever the spread between S&P 500 earnings yield and 10-year bond yield fall below -2 percentage points, the equity benchmark drops over the next seven and 12 months. However, for now she said that earnings yield gap is 'still in a favorable range for stocks, but is running out of wiggle room.' Why Apple Still Hasn't Cracked AI Anthropic Is Trying to Win the AI Race Without Losing Its Soul Microsoft's CEO on How AI Will Remake Every Company, Including His Cartoon Network's Last Gasp DeepSeek's 'Tech Madman' Founder Is Threatening US Dominance in AI Race ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Dip Buyers Race to Stocks as Bond Market Shrugs Off US Downgrade
(Bloomberg) -- Stock traders knew it was an ugly setup entering Monday, with futures lower in premarket action and Treasury yields racing higher after Moody's downgraded the US debt at the very end of last week. America, 'Nation of Porches' NJ Transit Train Engineers Strike, Disrupting Travel to NYC NJ Transit Makes Deal With Engineers, Ending Three-Day Strike NYC Commuters Brace for Chaos as NJ Transit Strike Looms But then a weird thing happened as trading got underway: The bond market calmed down. The yield on 10-year Treasuries, which had leaped the highest since February, began to fall, eventually dropping below where it started the session. That gave small investors in the stock market the all-clear sign to buy the dip, dragging the S&P 500 Index most of the way out of a decline that had reached more than 1% to finish up 0.1%. And with that, the lightning-quick $8.5 trillion rally in US stocks kept running for another day. 'At the moment, the fear of missing the bounce and follow-through is stronger than the prospect of anything going wrong with US's credit rating from late-to-the-table Moody's,' said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert. 'That does not mean that there is no 'real' risk associated with the downgrade, if something goes wrong with trade negotiations, all bets are off.' Stocks, which are riskier than bonds, are highly sensitive to credit-rating downgrades. When investors get worried about a government's ability to pay its debts, they pull money out of equities and pile into safer assets, which usually means US Treasuries. Many professional investors have sold their equity holdings, leaving the market to the retail crowd. 'There was not a lot of news in the downgrade, and then the bigger dynamic is that many investors are sitting on sidelines so any pullback is leading to dip buying,' said Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat Capital. Fed Model A variety of impulses were behind Monday's stock market rebound. House Republicans moved a tax-cut bill that's expected to stimulate growth out of committee, bringing it closer to passage in that chamber. A barometer of the cost of US equities versus Treasuries, known as the Fed Model, is signaling that yields can move higher before the damage spills over into the stock market. However, some Wall Street pros question the significance of the measurement. 'The model has been showing that the S&P 500 is undervalued since 2005 no matter what,' said Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research, who coined the term Fed Model. 'So it kept you in the stock market for sure.' And then there's Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, who's urging investors to step into any dips in stocks as the odds of a recession have fallen based on the trade truce between the US and China. That sentiment was echoed by strategists at HSBC, who see the US-China trade deal was a game-changer for stocks, adding that sentiment and positioning are sending the 'strongest buy signal in earnest since 2022.' Moody's Ratings downgraded US Treasuries to Aa1 from Aaa after the market close on Friday, citing a deepening concern that ballooning federal debt and deficits will damage America's standing as the preeminent destination for global capital and increase the government's borrowing costs. 'The stock market is immune in the same way that one gets immunity from having survived an illness,' Malek said. 'The market has survived such extremes in the past five years, what we now consider a common cold would have been a plague ten years ago.' Bond yields jumped early Monday, and as of 9 a.m. the 10-year and 30-year had both climbed nine basis points to 4.56% and 5.04%, respectively. But they quickly simmered and kept falling. By the time stocks stopped trading, the 10-year yield was down three basis points to 4.45%, and the 30-year had fallen four basis points to 4.9%. Market's Message 'The downgrade seemed out of touch with the market's message,' said Chris Verrone, head of technical and macro strategy at Strategas Securities. 'What the move in rates is not hitting, at least so far, is cyclicality. We'd be more uncomfortable with yields if this was not the case.' Indeed, strength in cyclical sectors that has been sending a bullish signal for stocks, continued Monday with industrials and consumer staples in the green. The earnings yield on S&P 500 has been sitting below what's offered by 10-year Treasuries since early 2024, a development that before last year was seen in the aftermath of the dot-com bubble. As a general rule, the higher the gap between the payout that stocks offer next to bonds, the better, as investors get compensated for the risk associated with investing in stocks. But the valuation argument is just one factor among many, and abandoning stocks just for that reason would have meant missing out on a 23% rally last year. This is why so many Wall Street pros say the Moody's action doesn't spoil the stock market party, at least not yet. For a more persistent fall in the S&P 500 and risk assets, strategists at HSBC said interest rate expectations need to be climbing higher and the 10-year yield has to rise above 4.7%. 'Until that is the case we'd view any fall in risk assets as an opportunity to scale up exposure,' they wrote in a note to clients. RBC Capital Markets' head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina said that if the 10-year yield rises to 5.3% or more while stocks' earnings yield stays stable, that would represent a range that has been historically troublesome for the stock market in the past. Whenever the spread between S&P 500 earnings yield and 10-year bond yield fall below -2 percentage points, the equity benchmark drops over the next seven and 12 months. However, for now she said that earnings yield gap is 'still in a favorable range for stocks, but is running out of wiggle room.' Why Apple Still Hasn't Cracked AI Anthropic Is Trying to Win the AI Race Without Losing Its Soul Microsoft's CEO on How AI Will Remake Every Company, Including His Cartoon Network's Last Gasp DeepSeek's 'Tech Madman' Founder Is Threatening US Dominance in AI Race ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
You can't manage risk if you don't know what you're holding
You can catch Trader Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. In the latest episode of "Trader Talk," Kenny Polcari sits down with Mark Malek, chief investment officer of SiebertNXT, to explore how quantitative investing and clear investment theses can help investors navigate today's volatile markets. Malek emphasizes using data-driven models to cut through noise, avoid over-diversification, and focus on high-probability opportunities, especially in defensive sectors. The two also weigh in on rate-cut expectations, soft versus hard data, and why sticking to fundamentals matters more than ever. Watch more episodes of Trader Talk here. Trader Talk with Kenny Polcari on Yahoo Finance delivers expert analysis and actionable insights, empowering you to navigate market volatility and secure your financial future.
Epoch Times
09-05-2025
- Business
- Epoch Times
How to Keep Your Finances in Check During a Recession
If you're concerned about the future of the economy and the potential for a recession on the horizon, you're not alone. The consumer confidence index dropped by 7.9 points in April to 86, according to an Why is this important? 'Consumer confidence is necessary for a strong economy, and that confidence in many ways is declining,' Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial, said in an email. 'Does it portend a recession? Well, not with enough statistical significance for me to recommend that you bury canned foods in your backyard, but it should put us on notice that things can get worse.' But even if things do get worse and we cross into recession territory, there are ways to safeguard your finances. Revisit Your Budget Money can be especially tight during a recession, especially when coupled with periods of high inflation and low income prospects. 'Expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations,' Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at The Conference Board, said in a news release. Related Stories 5/4/2025 4/26/2025 So it may be time to review your budget and identify areas you can cut back on and boost savings. Maybe you have subscription services you're not using often enough or at all. Or you can find free alternatives. But even moves like cutting back on dining out can save you a good sum of money. In fact, the average meal at an inexpensive restaurant costs nearly 285 percent more than eating at home, or $16.28 versus $4.23 per meal, according to research by But cutting back on future purchases can also help. You may find it's not too stressful to delay a vacation or a large purchase like a new car. Stack Up Your Emergency Savings As you cut back on expenses and increase savings, you may want to move them to a high-yield emergency fund. Most financial advisors recommend you have at least six months' worth of essential expenses in an emergency fund. These days, you can find several online banks offering high-yield savings accounts paying close to 5 percent APY. To put this into perspective, the average savings account rate is 0.41 percent, according to data from the Seek Unemployment Benefits If You Need Them Recessions are often defined by sharp increases in unemployment. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2 percent, according to the latest 'Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession,' Guichard said. So if you lose your job, you may want to seek unemployment benefits as soon as possible. The process and its length vary greatly by state. You may want to gather the following documents to be ready to file a claim. Last few pay stubs Previous tax return Documentation regarding any severance pay Address, phone number, and dates of your former employer It's important to make filing a priority if you lose your job, as it can take some time before you receive any benefits for which you may qualify. For the most updated information, visit the official Department of Labor Avoid Digging Into Your Retirement Funds When money is tight, it may be tempting to crack open your retirement nest egg. But there are some consequences. If you withdraw cash from a traditional 401(k) or individual retirement account (IRA) before reaching age 59.5, the distribution would trigger income taxes and a 10 percent early withdrawal penalty. This would also erase those savings from your retirement fund and prevent that money from benefiting from compound interest. Pay Off High-Interest Debt High-interest debt, such as credit card debt, can really pile up during a recession. In fact, credit card balances grew by $45 billion from the previous quarter to reach $1.21 trillion by the end of December, according to the latest But the Federal Reserve tends to cut interest rates during recessions. And the Fed is still proposing interest rate cuts in 2025. So it may be a good time to pay off debt with a fixed-interest personal loan. The average interest rate on a personal loan is about 11.7 percent, according to the latest On the other hand, the average The Bottom Line There's a lot of talk in economic circles about a looming recession. But there are steps you can take to weather the storm of a recession, such as reviewing your budget, boosting savings, and paying down high-interest debt through consolidation. The Epoch Times copyright © 2025. The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors. They are meant for general informational purposes only and should not be construed or interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation. The Epoch Times does not provide investment, tax, legal, financial planning, estate planning, or any other personal finance advice. The Epoch Times holds no liability for the accuracy or timeliness of the information provided.
