Latest news with #MarkMinervini
Time of India
5 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Stock rally sparks bold words from trading legend — his unexpected take is going viral
US stock market is seeing record highs since April. But trader Mark Minervini is cautious. He sees trouble under the surface. Breakout stocks are failing. Unemployment is up. Inflation remains a concern. Minervini advises careful risk management. He notes the market is not yet easy. Investors should watch economic signals. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads What Triggered the Stock Market's Sudden Rebound? Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Why Is Mark Minervini Cautious Despite Record Highs? Are Breakout Stocks Failing to Deliver Gains? What Economic Warning Signs Are Emerging? FAQs Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The stock market has been on a hot streak since the beginning of April, reaching record highs and leaving many amazed by its rise, as per a report. But even though Wall Street celebrates and indexes reach new heights, one seasoned trader is sounding a note of caution, and his message is quickly catching on social Minervini, trading legend with his sharp technical acumen and high profits, is sounding the alarm that while the market has recorded fantastic gains, but he has noticed some trouble under the hood that could give active investors pause, as reported by The April 9, the S&P 500 has risen over 25%, and the Nasdaq Composite has jumped 35%, both reaching new record highs, reported The Street. The trigger was US president Donald Trump's surprise suspension of retaliatory tariffs he announced on April 2—"Liberation Day", which led some traders to feel that the threat of all-out trade war was over and rekindled investor confidence, according to the most traders, the rally's pace and size were a shock, particularly following the S&P 500's fall of 19% between February and April's low, priced in enough risk to set the stage for persistent gains, as reported by The Street. Bears argued that lofty valuations and a sputtering economy put stocks at risk of a reckoning, wrote The Street in its READ: No Reddit, no visa? Indian's US entry blocked after failing to share account details Amidst the market euphoria, Minervini shared a candid analysis on social media X (formerly Twitter) that has now gone viral among market observers and traders, according to the report. He uses price action to make decisions about his buy and sell, as reported by The Street. Even though the rally since April has been rewarding, he has noticed some trouble under the hood that could give active investors pause, as reported by The wrote on X that, "If you are a breakout trader using tight stops — even though the indexes have ripped higher — you have likely experienced a low batting average," as quoted in the who was featured in the 'Market Wizards' book series and has won the US Investing Championship twice (including a record 334.8% return in 2021), is known for a strict, rules-based trading style that emphasises buying strong stocks as they break out, according to the READ: Tomorrowland fire shock: Main stage engulfed in flames days before start of massive festival - what we know He pointed out that, "The frequent occurrence of squats and outright failures continues to dominate as a theme around breakout levels, clearly signaling that conditions remain challenging and volatile around key risk levels," as quoted in the report. Minervini explained that, "These failed breakouts reveal persistent overhead supply and insufficient follow-through from institutional buyers, underscoring a risk off market with regard to broad-based participation," as quoted by The Street trader revealed that, "I remain an active participant and careful observer, adjusting day by day and ensuring risk management remains my top priority," and added that, "As far as breakout stocks are concerned, this is NOT yet an Easy Dollar environment. For the most part, we are still fighting for pennies," as quoted in the comments come as unemployment, though still low at 4.1%, has risen from 3.4% in 2023, layoffs have risen 80% year to date through May, and inflation, though better from its peak in 2022, remains sticky with core PCE inflation still at 2.7%, which is where it was in January, according to The Street sees a lack of broad participation and failed breakouts, signaling institutional hesitancy and high an eye on unemployment, inflation (especially core PCE), and the Fed's rate decisions.
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why this stock-market wizard is 100% invested in the S&P 500 right now — even after the U.S. strike on Iran
Mark Minervini is an accomplished stock trader known for his disciplined approach, his consistently high returns and his proprietary Specific Entry Point Analysis methodology. He's advised hedge funds, and he won the U.S. Investing Championship with a return of 155% in 1997 and with a record 334.8% in 2021. He was also featured in 'Stock Market Wizards,' Jack Schwager's classic 2001 book on investing. Through his own books and mentorship programs, Minervini continues to train stock traders worldwide. In this recent interview, which has been edited for length and clarity, Minervini shares his insights on risk management, trading discipline and his outlook for the U.S. stock market now. My sister and her husband died within days of each other. Their banks won't let me access their safe-deposit boxes. What now? A U.S. strike on Iran wasn't enough to rattle markets on Monday. Here's what might change that. Israel-Iran clash delivers a fresh shock to investors. History suggests this is the move to make. I'm 75 and have a reverse mortgage. Should I pay it off with my $200K savings — and live off Social Security instead? Treasury yields are falling as investors now see a possible July interest-rate cut by the Fed MarketWatch: With the U.S. strikes on Iran last weekend, have you made adjustments to your short-term trading strategy? Minervini: The strikes on Iran may create short-term volatility in oil BRN00 CL.1 and equities, but history shows that markets often rebound within six to 12 months. While oil prices above $80 could weigh on sentiment, with the S&P 500 SPX still in a confirmed uptrend and our May 8 buy signal intact, I view any pullbacks as buying opportunities. Expect near-term volatility, but don't lose sight of the broader trend. Our bottom-up approach remains driven by individual stock behavior, not headlines. MarketWatch: What do you think of the U.S. economy? Minervini: Right now, we're in an optimal economic growth period that is good for a sustained bull market. It's a Goldilocks economy. You have 2% to 3% real [gross domestic product] growth, which is a really good environment for a sustained bull market, It's not strong enough to have inflation, and we're not tipping into a recession. On May 8, our firm put out a buy signal for the S&P 500. That's when we went 100% into the S&P 500. MarketWatch: What could go wrong for the stock market? Minervini: We have a lot of uncertainty right now with the tariffs, oil and Iran. If oil goes above $80 per barrel, that may be a tipping point that could put pressure on the market. Every $5 or $10 that oil rises above $80 could add to a recessionary scenario. Right now, we're bullish on the major indexes like the S&P 500, but cautious with regard to individual stocks — particularly small caps and midcaps. MarketWatch: Why are you taking a cautious approach with individual stocks? Minervini: Right now, participation is weak because money managers are not willing to go too far out on the risk curve, so they are gravitating toward the big heavy-weighted stocks in the index. For example, right now about 40% of the S&P 500's market capitalization is concentrated in just its top 10 stocks — a level not seen in decades. For the Nasdaq Composite COMP, the top five companies — six if you count Alphabet's GOOGL GOOG dual share classes — make up over 40% of its total weight. This is not a broad-based bull market. Money is narrowly concentrated. That's why you see indexes such as the S&P 500 moving up to new highs, but the percentage of stocks that are above their 200-day moving average is still very low. It's a bifurcated market. If you're in the bigger-cap names in the indexes, you could make some money. MarketWatch: You're a two-time investing champion, and at one point, you averaged a 220% annual return over five years. What do you think has been the key to delivering those kinds of results? Minervini: The real secret is risk management and discipline. Discipline is the key — committing fully to a strategy, mastering its details and understanding both its strengths and limitations through every market cycle. You see a lot of traders who are up big, but they fail to respect risk, and suddenly they're down big, digging out of a hole and only getting back to even. I very rarely dig out of a hole, and if I'm in a hole, it's a small loss. It's a simple law of compounding that if you don't lose big, winning becomes easier. MarketWatch: You often emphasize the importance of risk management and discipline — areas where many traders struggle. What specific methods or practices do you recommend for managing risk effectively? Minervini: When you enter a trade, there really is no other alternative to manage risk except selling a position for a small loss before it becomes a large loss. The key is to get out at single digits, and to do that, you must use a stop-loss. Some people will hedge and maybe use put options — but that just adds risk, because you could lose on both sides. MarketWatch: So in your view, managing risk and maintaining discipline is the real secret to trading success? Minervini: I'd love to tell you something new, but things really haven't changed a whole lot when it comes to risk and reward and supply and demand. It may be redundant and boring, but if you want the hair on your neck to stick up, then you're not managing risk. You're gambling. When I was interviewed by Jack Schwager for his book, after I gave him the same answer, he stopped the tape recorder and said, 'Mark, this is great, but this is what all the market wizards say.' And I replied, 'Well, Jack, this is the reason why they're market wizards!' MarketWatch: Even with all that in mind, a lot of traders still have trouble making steady profits. What are they missing? Minervini: Many people spend all their time researching a company and falling in love with products and services such as artificial intelligence. Then they buy the stock, and the next day, the stock is down 3%, 4%, 5% or 8%. They are forced to decide whether to cut their loss. They didn't plan for the stock to go down. When you buy a stock and the stock goes down, you're wrong. If you sell it and take the loss, you've admitted defeat. The real fear, and this is what keeps people from selling, is that you're going to sell it and it's going to turn around and go back up. Then you will be wrong a second time. Psychologically, being wrong twice is a very powerful force, and it makes us hold on to a position even when it's clear it should be sold. MarketWatch: What advice would you give traders right now? Minervini: Be careful because of information overload — including thousands of self-proclaimed financial experts on YouTube. You have to figure out a way to reduce the noise and commit to a particular strategy. You must become a specialist rather than a jack-of-all-trades. MarketWatch: Did you make any mistakes when you first started trading? Minervini: I made every mistake you could possibly make. Everything I did then was the complete opposite of what I do now. I lost money for almost six years. Then I reversed all the criteria. I studied what winning stocks looked like and created a leadership profile, which is what I use now. It's a technical profile ranking that compares whether a stock meets the criteria of the biggest winning stocks of the last 100 years. We look at the common denominators to see if your stock has what it takes to be a big winner. That's what has worked for me for the last 38 years. MarketWatch: It sounds as if you are a trend follower. Minervini: I am definitely aligning my investments with the trend. The main thing is a stock has to be in an uptrend. I will not trade against a trend. Then I look for stocks that are showing relative strength versus the entire market. We also look for a technical chart pattern called the Volatility Contraction Pattern, which is my signature stock setup. If a stock doesn't meet my criteria, I stay away from it. Many people buy a stock because of a news story or because their friend gave them a tip, but that's not sustainable. That's not a strategy. MarketWatch: Any final advice? Minervini: If you're new to investing or trading, don't believe those who say it was easier back in the day. Trading is easier now than ever. This is one of the best times in history for trading and investing in stocks. Be patient with yourself and don't give up. You can't become a doctor or a Major League baseball player in six months or a year. Don't expect that to happen with trading, either. You will have to put in some time, but it's worth it. is the author of , and Also read: Trump's Iran strike is a major win for your stock portfolio. Here's how to play it. More: These are the areas where markets are complacent and risks lurk The U.S. bull market is intact — and a key signal is coming from Tel Aviv, says this strategist Here are the overlooked ways to play AI, crypto and quantum trends, says this tech investor 'I'm at my wit's end': My niece paid off her husband's credit card but fell behind on her taxes. How can I help her? 20 oil stocks passing a quality screen as investors wonder what Iran will do next My cousin died before claiming his late father's $2 million estate. Will I get it? Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Wire
29-04-2025
- Business
- Business Wire
2025 United States Investing Championship First Quarter Results
LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The United States Investing Championship just announced its results for the first quarter of 2025. There were five hundred thirty-four competitors, each of whom selected a real money account to be tracked before the competition began. Prior top performers include Paul Tudor Jones, Mark Minervini, David Ryan, Mark Strome, and Dr. Edward O. Thorp. Leading the $1,000,000+ stock division at the end of the first quarter + 30.2% is Ron Bagley of Bagley Capital Management in Bountiful, Utah. In second + 11.4% is Joseph Pullig, from Haughton, LA. Mr. Pullig owns a company that harvests and processes lumber. Other traders reporting profits are John Ward (Mystic Valley Investments) + 6%, Christian Flanders + 4.9%, David Forehand + 4.3%, and Alavanca Trading + 2.4%. In the $1,000,000+ enhanced growth division, which allows the trading of futures and options, the leader after three months + 64% is the Fortune Reliance Fund, managed by Maziyar Yousefizad of Derivatix Capital Management. Maziyar lives in Toronto. He previously worked as a senior risk analyst CIBC, TD, and Scotiabank. Second + 24.5% is Vikash Raniga, from Fremont, CA. Mr. Raniga has an MBA from MIT. He is former head of Product Strategy & Marketing at META. Third + 19.5% is Evan Wong of Flamestone Capital, based in Hong Kong. Evan lives in Los Angeles. Also reporting a profit was Andrew O'Connell of Pristine Capital + 3.2%. Among participants trading less than $1,000,000 in stocks, the leader at the end of three months is Gowthaman Vijayan + 104.1% from Santa Barbara, CA. He is originally from India. Second + 83% is Ty Rajnus of Rajnus Capital from Reno, NV. Third + 65.6% is Aidan Oster, who attends Lehigh University. Other traders achieving gains of more than 10% are T. Garwe, Ph.D. + 57.2%, Martin Luk + 46.2%, Clement Ang + 30.9%, Dheeraj Kumar Sharma + 24.8%, Alexander Vargas + 24.3%, Tze Ching Abraham Ho + 23.4%, Brandon Janssen + 20.6%, Ayman E. Ahmed + 16.5%, Michael Chester + 15%, Landon Timothy + 14%, Manoj Giri + 12.6%, Nick Weiant + 11.4%, Ahmad N. Chaudhry + 10.1%, and Anuj Rakheja + 10%. Among participants trading less than $1,000,000 in the enhanced growth division, the leader after three months + 336.9% is Tito Adhikary from Boston. Tito has a Ph.D. in Biomedical Sciences. Second + 264.5% is Bob Doviak from Dallas. Third + 109.1% is Emanuela Elias from Morrisville, NC. Emanuela publishes The Trader Reset, a free financial newsletter. Other traders achieving gains of more than 10% are Blake Bracco + 102.2%, Kyle Walter + 84.6%, Carson Davis + 74%, Alan Chiu + 43.7%, Victor Presenti + 41.9%, James Schreder, CLFP + 39.6%, Jiri Jilek + 31.2%, Kishor Limbu + 27.8%, Senthil Kumar + 27.7%, Tigran Mandalian + 23.4%, Sergej Nekora + 15.5%, Daniel Duque Giraldo + 14.3%, and Daniel Lee + 12.2%. Since its inception in 1983, the United States Investing Championship has attracted legendary traders, including Paul Tudor Jones, Mark Minervini, David Ryan, Sean Ryan, Louis Bacon, Dr. Edward O. Thorp, Mark Strome, Doug Kass, Sheen Kassouf, Marty Schwartz, Frankie Joe, Tom Basso, Cedd Moses, Gil Blake, Robert Prechter, Jr., and Bruno Combier. The standings appear on along with articles about top performers from Business Insider, Institutional Investor, Barron's, the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Forbes, and other financial publications. The standings also appear on X at @USICOfficial. Entries for the 2025 competition are currently being accepted at Participants who enter late are tracked from the close on the day they enter. The contest coordinator, Dr. Norman Zadeh (aka Zada), is also president of the Lotfi Zadeh Foundation, a charity created to build thousands of ultra-low-cost ($5,000/unit) residences in sparsely populated areas and fully take care of the homeless. (Visit for more information.) Dr. Zadeh taught Operations Research in a visiting capacity at Stanford, UCLA, UC Irvine, and Columbia Universities between 1975 and 1983. He managed hedge funds from 1991 to 2012. His father, Lotfi Zadeh, created fuzzy logic. Norm is the author of four books: Fox News: The Enemy Within (released in 2021), The Rise and Fall of Perfect 10 (released in 2021), Hold'em Poker Super Strategy (released in 2020), and Winning Poker Systems (Prentice Hall, 1974).
Yahoo
20-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
99% of the ‘biggest winning stocks' share this criteria, says investing legend Mark Minervini
The 'Magnificent Seven' stocks' outperformance over multiple cycles is historically unusual — and the long run of dominance for these seven large technology stocks has convinced people that they are impervious to underperforming, says Mark Minervini, a two-time U.S. Investing champion. In an interview with MarketWatch, the Wall Street veteran with almost four decades of trading experience warned that the stock market's speculative nature means there's no margin of safety for any stock. To drive his point home, he recalled a number of failed companies that were part of the 'Nifty Fifty,' a group of 50 large caps that led the market in the 1960s and 1970s. Only a handful of stocks from that group went on to thrive, like American Express Co. AXP and Coca-Cola Co. KO, while others like Avon and Polaroid did not. These 15 tech stocks could rocket up to 85% in a year — and analysts love them 'Are we out of our minds?' My husband and I are in our 70s. Should we use $600K of our savings to buy our dream home? I'm administrator of my sister's estate. Her bank won't tell me the names of her beneficiaries. Is that legal? I held power of attorney for my late brother. Can I withdraw money from his bank account to give to his favorite charity? Dow sees first 'death cross' since 2023 — but here's the good news Minervini is known for being a two-time winner of the U.S. Investing Championship, taking first place in the $1,000,000-plus stock division with a 334.8% annual return in 2021. He also won the competition in 1997 with a 155% return. He has spent most of his career teaching the next wave of investors how to find winning stocks using fundamental and technical analysis through his published books and courses. One of his overarching guidelines is that while fundamentals drive the technicals, you may not always see the fundamentals in time — but the technicals can improve, or degrade, before the fundamentals become obvious to the public. That's because Wall Street is always looking ahead and factoring in future expectations when valuing current stock prices. It's where the popular saying that 'stocks are a discounting mechanism' comes in. It also means that by the time the big news is out or earnings are reported, the information has already been acted on, and so investors should assume it has been priced into the stock. 'Sometimes the stock will have great earnings and it will go down, and there's other times they'll have horrible earnings and all this bad news comes out and the stock rallies — and that's why they say 'Buy the rumor, sell the news,'' Minervini said. What does the discounting mechanism mean for the Magnificent Seven, you ask? Well, Minervini believes that so much positive data has already been discounted based on where those stocks are trading. Even though those stocks have pulled back in recent weeks, all of the Magnificent Seven companies except Tesla Inc. TSLA still have trillion-dollar-plus market capitalizations. That means in the long run, there's less room for them to outperform. It's not over for Big Tech, but they'll most likely match market performance going forward, he noted. If investors want to continue picking up outsize performance in tech stocks, they have to be more selective. Remember, Minervini said, that at one point, Inc. AMZN and Microsoft Corp. MSFT were midcap companies that very few people had heard of. He believes it's time to start looking for the next Amazon. 'The good news is, America is absolutely booming with innovation and there are lots of companies that are going to come in and add to that picture,' Minervini said. 'And so there's going to be many, many new companies.' Some of those companies are ones many investors haven't heard of yet. They could even be the ones that are tasked with supplying and servicing the Magnificent Seven. So, then, how do you find them? While he has a few criteria to spot new leaders, the main ones are (1) stocks trading above their 200-day moving average and (2) stocks that have a 200-day moving average in an uptrend. 'That is the most basic criteria if you're looking for a stock that's got the potential to be a big winner,' Minervini said. 'If you go back and look at the biggest winning stocks of the last 100 years, 99% of them made their biggest move above the 200-day with the 200-day in an uptrend. So would you like to be in the 1% club or the 99% club?' Additional criteria include (3) the stock being at or near its 52-week high. If stocks are coming out of a bear market, then look for the ones that have held up best during the decline on a relative basis, and which are rebounding the fastest off their lows. Now, some of these guidelines are in opposition to what fundamental value investors may be looking for. A value investor is usually looking for stocks that are down big, trading near their 52-week lows, and have been beat up on bad news. Minervini noted that both strategies can make money — they're just different. 'But if you want to find where leadership is, well, leadership is never at the 52-week-low list,' Minervini said. 'It's always near the 52-week-high list. And the only way a stock can go from 10 to 100 is it has to make new highs.' 'It's just not done': Why Trump firing Powell could rock U.S. financial markets Wall Street's 12 favorite stocks could soar as much as 54% over the next year, analysts say I begged my adviser to sell amid the market turmoil. He dragged his feet and I lost $20,000. Do I have any recourse? Wall Street predicts a 10% stock rebound by the end of 2025. Why investors shouldn't buy the hype just yet. 'I ended up getting very sick': I'm divorcing an abuser. I've had two terrible attorneys — and fired them both. Do I sue? Sign in to access your portfolio
