6 days ago
New Disturbance Emerges in Atlantic as Tropical Storm Erin's Path Shifts
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are monitoring a disturbance in the Atlantic with a low chance of development, as Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to continue moving westward.
Why It Matters
Meteorologists have indicated that Erin has the potential to become the first major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Eris is the fifth named system of the Atlantic season so far, following Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter. Chantal brought heavy rain and flooding to North Carolina in early July.
None of the previous named storms developed into hurricanes.
What To Know
In an early morning update on Tuesday, the NHC said a disturbance located "a few hundred miles" southeast of Nova Scotia was producing "disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to the west of its center."
While some development would be possible in the coming days, the NHC said the disturbance would likely move north over cooler waters by midweek, ending its chances of developing further.
The agency gave the disturbance a 10 percent chance of cyclone formation through both 48 hours and seven days.
Meanwhile, the NHC was also tracking Tropical Storm Erin, which formed in the far eastern tropical Atlantic on Monday.
This NHC graphic shows Erin's expected path on Aug. 12.
This NHC graphic shows Erin's expected path on Aug. 12.
National Hurricane Center
"Erin is moving toward the west near 22 mph, and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days with a decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn toward the west-northwest," it said in an update Tuesday morning.
The system was expected to become a hurricane "over the next couple of days," said the NHC.
What People Are Saying
Meteorologist Matt Devitt said in a post on X late on Monday: "Not the best of trends with #Erin, but it's still early. Could snap back east (windshield wiper effect). We don't want to jump to conclusions from 12 hours of data.
"If the trend becomes consistent, then you have something more concrete. Majority of models (for now) is still out to sea, but the breathing room basically got chipped away a little bit in the latest update. The US East Coast is not out of the woods yet... Just monitor for now."
Not the best of trends with #Erin, but it's still early. Could snap back east (windshield wiper effect). We don't want to jump to conclusions from 12 hours of data. If the trend becomes consistent, then you have something more concrete. Majority of models (for now) is still out… — Matt Devitt (@MattDevittWX) August 12, 2025
Devitt also said on X, Monday: "Tropical Storm #Erin has formed in the Atlantic, 5th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic Season and could even become the first major hurricane too."
AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek: "We expect Erin to be the first hurricane and first major hurricane of the season. Environmental conditions northeast of the Lesser Antilles will be very favorable for intensification and as a result, Erin is expected to become a major hurricane this weekend."
What Happens Next
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November, while the eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and lasts until Nov. 30.
The NHC says that August and September are typically the busiest months of the Atlantic season.
