Latest news with #MattOrton
Economic Times
16 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Are defence and aerospace stocks set to soar? Matt Orton's view on global market tailwinds
Matt Orton, Raymond James Investment, says despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, markets are showing cautious optimism, supported by positive earnings and India's GST reforms. Aerospace and defence sectors remain strong performers, with long-term investment potential driven by increased global security spending. Investors can benefit from tailwinds across select sectors despite unresolved tensions. ADVERTISEMENT Matt Orton: Yes, there is quite a lot going on for investors. From the economic data over the past week, the Trump-Putin summit, and the ongoing discussions, it seems we are moving closer to more clarity in the market, which markets always favor. A narrowing of potential outcomes helps investors factor in what the future might look like. I am optimistic that this clarity should be marginally positive for markets, which continue to move higher. India has also seen positive developments, such as the double Diwali and GST changes. US macroeconomic data did not send any negative signals, and the earnings season has been wrapping up on a strong note. These factors provide good tailwinds, which could strengthen further if geopolitical risks are resolved positively. Matt Orton: Any clarity on these discussions will be very helpful. The inclusion of European leaders and Zelenskyy at the White House indicates a willingness to reach a mutually agreeable resolution, even if not everyone is completely of the outcome, aerospace and defence have been strong outperformers, particularly in Europe and the US, and these tailwinds are likely to continue. Even without a full peace agreement, nations will need to invest more in security, which supports long-term spending in defence and sends a signal globally about the need for robust security measures. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
17 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Are defence and aerospace stocks set to soar? Matt Orton's view on global market tailwinds
Matt Orton, Raymond James Investment, says despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, markets are showing cautious optimism, supported by positive earnings and India's GST reforms . Aerospace and defence sectors remain strong performers, with long-term investment potential driven by increased global security spending. Investors can benefit from tailwinds across select sectors despite unresolved tensions. There is a lot happening on the global front. How do you read the current sentiments coming from global markets? Matt Orton: Yes, there is quite a lot going on for investors. From the economic data over the past week, the Trump-Putin summit, and the ongoing discussions, it seems we are moving closer to more clarity in the market, which markets always favor. A narrowing of potential outcomes helps investors factor in what the future might look like. I am optimistic that this clarity should be marginally positive for markets, which continue to move higher. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like They were so beautiful before; look at them now; number 10 will shock you Boite A Scoop Undo India has also seen positive developments, such as the double Diwali and GST changes. US macroeconomic data did not send any negative signals, and the earnings season has been wrapping up on a strong note. These factors provide good tailwinds, which could strengthen further if geopolitical risks are resolved positively. On the Trump-Putin meeting, there seems to be no solid outcome yet. How do you see today's talks with Zelenskyy affecting the US-Russia tariff scenario and India? Matt Orton: Any clarity on these discussions will be very helpful. The inclusion of European leaders and Zelenskyy at the White House indicates a willingness to reach a mutually agreeable resolution, even if not everyone is completely satisfied. Regardless of the outcome, aerospace and defence have been strong outperformers, particularly in Europe and the US, and these tailwinds are likely to continue. Even without a full peace agreement, nations will need to invest more in security, which supports long-term spending in defence and sends a signal globally about the need for robust security measures.
Economic Times
08-08-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Matt Orton warns of short-term volatility, urges investors to focus on long-term growth sectors
Raymond James Investment's Matt Orton advises investors to capitalize on market dips, focusing on AI, capex, and reshoring for long-term growth. Despite concerns about a potential economic slowdown and Trump's tariff stance with India, Orton believes a deal with India is still possible due to its strategic importance. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads "I would urge investors to look beyond the current sideways movement or consolidation — which is healthy after hitting 10 all-time highs this year — and use any meaningful downside, if it occurs, as an opportunity. Make sure you're positioned in long-term, durable growth themes like artificial intelligence , capex, and reshoring — areas we've discussed previously," says Matt Orton A lot of the concerns around US economic growth are already well understood by the market. We've been thinking about a potential slowdown since April 2nd, but so far, the data has actually surprised to the upside. I've remained constructive on both the economy and the what I've seen during the earnings season — and ultimately that's what drives market direction — we've had broadly strong earnings, especially from the technology and communication services sectors. Whether the economy slows or grows, these long-term secular growth areas tend to do well. So it's a bit of a 'heads I win, tails you lose' situation: what's been driving the market remains firmly in place, and we're likely to see that appreciation continue.I would urge investors to look beyond the current sideways movement or consolidation — which is healthy after hitting 10 all-time highs this year — and use any meaningful downside, if it occurs, as an opportunity. Make sure you're positioned in long-term, durable growth themes like artificial intelligence, capex, and reshoring — areas we've discussed previously.I don't think anything is ever completely ruled out with Donald Trump. He's a dealmaker. When there's a deal to be made, he'll take it — especially with a country like India, which is strategically important to the United States. Its location between China and Russia — two of the US's key adversaries — makes India a key player.I think Trump wants to strike a deal with India and is just playing hard to get right now. Russian oil may also be used as a bargaining chip — perhaps more to show Vladimir Putin that Trump is serious about supporting Ukraine. Doing that with China is harder due to the regime's volatility and the risk of escalating tariffs, considering how deeply interconnected the two economies yes, there are many chess pieces in play right now. One never truly knows what Trump is thinking, but given India's strategic importance — economically and geopolitically — I believe a deal is still on the table. Much of it may hinge on how US-Russia negotiations evolve in the near are several factors at play. Many FIIs follow a 'sell first, ask questions later' approach. So, if sentiment weakens due to a stalled tariff deal, or even if earnings are good but not as strong as those in the US, that becomes an excuse to trim recent dollar rally is another reason — it puts pressure on emerging markets. All these smaller factors can build up into sustained selling. But I think we may be near the end of this we'll get some clarity on the macro front — whether around tariffs or interest rates. India's economic growth remains very robust. Compared to much slower growth in the US or Europe, India continues to be attractive for foreign the dollar weakens a bit, or if we see greater clarity around Fed rate cuts — even just one or two — that could encourage FIIs to return to India. Once earnings season concludes, the focus will shift back to the broader picture, and not just individual earnings misses. Many Indian companies have actually posted strong numbers, and that should not be overlooked.
Time of India
08-08-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Matt Orton warns of short-term volatility, urges investors to focus on long-term growth sectors
"I would urge investors to look beyond the current sideways movement or consolidation — which is healthy after hitting 10 all-time highs this year — and use any meaningful downside, if it occurs, as an opportunity. Make sure you're positioned in long-term, durable growth themes like artificial intelligence , capex, and reshoring — areas we've discussed previously," says Matt Orton , Raymond James Investment . Help us understand how you're reading the US markets right now. We've just heard from Treasury Secretary Bessent, who said that most trade deals are largely done. But alongside that, we also have comments from the Atlanta Fed President, Raphael Bostic, suggesting that the economy is likely to slow down. Do you believe these concerns could weigh heavily on the markets going forward? Given the resilience the US markets have shown so far, could this create some downside risks? Matt Orton: A lot of the concerns around US economic growth are already well understood by the market. We've been thinking about a potential slowdown since April 2nd, but so far, the data has actually surprised to the upside. I've remained constructive on both the economy and the markets. 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Whether the economy slows or grows, these long-term secular growth areas tend to do well. So it's a bit of a 'heads I win, tails you lose' situation: what's been driving the market remains firmly in place, and we're likely to see that appreciation continue. I would urge investors to look beyond the current sideways movement or consolidation — which is healthy after hitting 10 all-time highs this year — and use any meaningful downside, if it occurs, as an opportunity. Make sure you're positioned in long-term, durable growth themes like artificial intelligence, capex, and reshoring — areas we've discussed previously. Live Events It's also an important day globally, with Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs taking effect today. However, he has now ruled out any room for negotiation with India until the tariff issue is resolved. How are you reading into that? The street's belief was that the high tariffs were a pressure tactic, giving room for negotiation. Now that he seems to be closing the door on talks, how do you think this rhetoric might play out? Matt Orton: I don't think anything is ever completely ruled out with Donald Trump. He's a dealmaker. When there's a deal to be made, he'll take it — especially with a country like India, which is strategically important to the United States. Its location between China and Russia — two of the US's key adversaries — makes India a key player. I think Trump wants to strike a deal with India and is just playing hard to get right now. Russian oil may also be used as a bargaining chip — perhaps more to show Vladimir Putin that Trump is serious about supporting Ukraine. Doing that with China is harder due to the regime's volatility and the risk of escalating tariffs, considering how deeply interconnected the two economies are. So yes, there are many chess pieces in play right now. One never truly knows what Trump is thinking, but given India's strategic importance — economically and geopolitically — I believe a deal is still on the table. Much of it may hinge on how US-Russia negotiations evolve in the near future. Just shifting to the Indian markets — what's your take on the incessant FII ( Foreign Institutional Investor ) selling? We've seen consistent outflows across nearly 17 trading sessions in July. Is the bigger concern tariffs, or is it about domestic growth? Matt Orton: There are several factors at play. Many FIIs follow a 'sell first, ask questions later' approach. So, if sentiment weakens due to a stalled tariff deal, or even if earnings are good but not as strong as those in the US, that becomes an excuse to trim positions. The recent dollar rally is another reason — it puts pressure on emerging markets. All these smaller factors can build up into sustained selling. But I think we may be near the end of this phase. Eventually, we'll get some clarity on the macro front — whether around tariffs or interest rates. India's economic growth remains very robust. Compared to much slower growth in the US or Europe, India continues to be attractive for foreign investors. If the dollar weakens a bit, or if we see greater clarity around Fed rate cuts — even just one or two — that could encourage FIIs to return to India. Once earnings season concludes, the focus will shift back to the broader picture, and not just individual earnings misses. Many Indian companies have actually posted strong numbers, and that should not be overlooked.
Economic Times
29-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Fed likely to hold rates, no cuts before September: Matt Orton
So I'm using the current market conditions to build positions in specific names in anticipation of a return to favor for emerging markets — with India leading the charge. "If you think back to April 2nd, on Liberation Day, we were penciling in tariff rates of over 50% for many countries globally. So the fact that we're now settling into a 15%–20% range is generally manageable. The company management teams I speak to — both in the US and globally — feel this is a range they can work within. It doesn't mean there won't be challenges, particularly for certain industries, but overall, we at least have some clarity. This removes the worst-case scenarios from the table and allows us as investors to focus on what truly matters: company-specific fundamentals and earnings trajectories," says Matt Orton, Raymond James Investment. There's been a lot of commentary around tariff announcements and those that may be coming soon, especially with the August 1st deadline just days away. President Trump has said he is considering imposing tariffs of 15% to 20% on nations that have yet to strike a trade deal. What's your sense of where the trade deal negotiations are headed? Are we likely to see more trade deal announcements? And how do you think the markets will react? For now, US markets seem to be climbing the wall of worry — would you agree? Matt Orton: I've been constructive on the outlook for markets, particularly US equities. The trade deals that are being signed and the narrowing of the tariff bands are all marginal positives — not just for the US economy, but for the global economy more broadly. If you think back to April 2nd, on Liberation Day, we were penciling in tariff rates of over 50% for many countries globally. So the fact that we're now settling into a 15%–20% range is generally manageable. The company management teams I speak to — both in the US and globally — feel this is a range they can work within. It doesn't mean there won't be challenges, particularly for certain industries, but overall, we at least have some clarity. This removes the worst-case scenarios from the table and allows us as investors to focus on what truly matters: company-specific fundamentals and earnings we're seeing in the US right now — and why it's outperforming other global markets — is strong Q2 earnings. Companies are not only reporting solid top-line growth, but also strong margins, indicating that the tariffs implemented so far haven't significantly impacted their bottom lines. That's why there's a sense of optimism. I remain optimistic and continue to advise clients to use any downside as an opportunity to ensure their portfolios are well-balanced and positioned toward durable secular growth themes. A bigger concern for India is the recent 2% uptick in oil prices. Trump's shorter deadline for Russia doesn't seem to be working out, and that's weighing on oil. Where do you think oil markets will stabilize? Matt Orton: Right now, oil markets are largely range-bound, barring any major geopolitical escalation. We saw a glimpse of potential volatility during the brief standoff with Iran, but since then, oil prices have settled into a range aligned with supply-demand fundamentals. I don't expect sustained prices above $75–$78 per barrel unless there's significant geopolitical conflict. That's generally good news for emerging markets. As you rightly pointed out, the current range is manageable for an economy like key question is how India proceeds with trade negotiations with the US. There's potential for India to leverage a trade deal to increase purchases of US oil, potentially replacing Russian supply. That's one of the scenarios still in play. There are several key cues to watch on Wall Street — A) the earnings trajectory, B) the tariff landscape, and C) the upcoming FOMC meeting and the interest rate decision. Most expect rates to be held steady, but what's your view? Could this be the next trigger for the markets? Matt Orton: I also expect rates to be held steady — that's pretty much the consensus view at this point. As you mentioned, what really matters is how hawkish Powell sounds during his commentary. I suspect he'll try hard to avoid saying anything new and steer clear of speculative questions — like whether he plans to step down or whether Trump might replace him. That's just noise. Ultimately, the Fed is governed by a committee of voting members. At most, we may see two dissenting votes in this meeting. I don't expect any rate cuts before September. The US economy is still holding up well, inflation is relatively stable, and we're not yet sure how tariffs will fully pass through. There's no compelling reason to preemptively cut base case is that we'll see one or two cuts later this year — but not until at least September, and more likely in November or December. What's your view on the dollar index? We've seen a jump from around 96 to 98.4. That typically doesn't bode well for emerging markets. Do you see this strength continuing, or will it remain range-bound? Matt Orton: The long-term trajectory for the dollar is still downward. The recent uptick is more technical in nature — driven by some profit-taking following the dollar's poor performance in the first half of the year. I believe the downtrend will resume, which is one reason I remain optimistic about emerging markets. They offer strong diversification, especially for portfolios that are currently overweight on US equities.I would use market weakness to buy into high-quality companies across emerging markets. India is definitely one of the most promising countries in this space. The recent FII selling appears shortsighted, likely influenced by developments in long-term outlook remains strong. I particularly like companies in the banking sector, some automakers, and firms integrating AI into their businesses. Their earnings results so far have been very strong. So I'm using the current market conditions to build positions in specific names in anticipation of a return to favor for emerging markets — with India leading the charge.
