Latest news with #MaxKettner
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Earnings momentum turns positive for US stocks as tariffs ease
(Bloomberg) — The negative earnings-growth momentum that has plagued US equities for months is finally taking a turn for the better. A New Central Park Amenity, Tailored to Its East Harlem Neighbors As Trump Reshapes Housing Policy, Renters Face Rollback of Rights What's Behind the Rise in Serious Injuries on New York City's Streets? NYC Warns of 17% Drop in Foreign Tourists Due to Trump Policies LA Mayor Credits Trump on Fire Aid, Stays Wary on Immigration A Citigroup Inc. gauge of earnings revisions, based on the number of upgrades and downgrades, has turned positive for the first time in six months, implying analysts' estimates could soon be heading higher. 'Earnings-per-share expectations of US cyclicals seem to have bottomed out,' wrote HSBC Holdings Plc strategists led by Max Kettner. 'Broader US earnings revisions have also rebounded strongly in the last two weeks. The weaker greenback may even support further with earnings upgrades relative to other regions such as the eurozone in the coming weeks.' The surprisingly positive earnings season, as well as some easing of trade tensions globally, have spurred optimism after a period of doubt about the ability of US equities to meet elevated expectations for profit growth. The fading artificial-intelligence frenzy since the DeepSeek announcement earlier this year, as well as rising risks of a US recession, had weighed on estimates. But analysts may have been too pessimistic, and are now forced to catch up. According to a Bloomberg Intelligence earnings tracker, 77% of S&P 500 (^GSPC) members that reported surprised positively in the first quarter, the highest since the second quarter of last year. Meanwhile, earnings growth in the quarter is running at 13.1%, compared with just 6.6% expected before the start of the season. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by David Kostin raised their 2025 and 2026 EPS growth estimates to 7% for both years, from 3% and 6% previously. 'These estimates reflect an improved US economic outlook, lower tariff rates than we previously assumed, and a better-than-expected first-quarter earnings season,' they wrote in a note. 'Our 2025 EPS growth estimate is now above the top-down consensus estimate of 4% and in line with the bottom-up consensus estimate of 7%.' Tariffs have been at the forefront of company concerns during reporting season, with mentions spiking to a record in earnings calls, according to an analysis by Morgan Stanley. About 30 firms pulled or paused guidance amid tariff uncertainty, especially within sectors including autos, durables and industrials. The announcement of a trade deal with the UK and the temporary easing of tariffs between the US and China have boosted expectations that duties will end up much lower than initially expected. That has alleviated recession fears. Investors have become less pessimistic about global growth generally in the past month. According to the Bank of America Corp. fund manager survey published Tuesday, a net 59% of respondents now expect a weaker economy this year, a sharp improvement form the record 82% taking that stance last month. 'Improvement in global growth sentiment is supportive for stocks,' wrote the team led by Michael Hartnett. The Recession Chatter Is Getting Louder. Watch These Metrics US Border Towns Are Being Ravaged by Canada's Furious Boycott Two Million Meat Sticks a Day Isn't Enough for Chomps' CEO Maybe AI Slop Is Killing the Internet, After All With the New York Liberty, Clara Wu Tsai Aims for the First $1 Billion Women's Sports Franchise ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Malaysian Reserve
13-05-2025
- Business
- Malaysian Reserve
Stocks rise across Asia on US-China trade truce: Markets wrap
ASIAN stocks followed gains in US equities on optimism the US-China trade truce marks the end to an all-out tariff war. Shares in Australia and Japan jumped at the open after the S&P 500 closed more than 3% higher. Japan's Topix gained for a 13th day, putting it on track for it longest winning streak in 16 years. A gauge of US-listed Chinese stocks surged 5.4% on Monday in its best session in over two months. The dollar was little changed in Asia after jumping Monday. The return of risk appetite came as trade negotiators from the world's two biggest economies announced Monday a massive de-escalation in tariffs. In a carefully coordinated joint statement, the US slashed duties on Chinese products to 30% from 145% for a 90-day period, while Beijing dropped its levy on most goods to 10%. For investors shocked into defensive measures at the height of April's chaos, the rebound in markets has been a mixed blessing. Shorting the dollar, going long stock volatility and piling on bets premised on multiple Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts were among the most popular trades in mid-April. Now, their unwinding may be adding fuel to the bounce-back. 'There's very clearly upside risk for the broader risk asset spectrum now as markets will likely extrapolate a higher likelihood of further deals in the coming weeks,' HSBC Bank strategists including Max Kettner wrote in a note to clients. 'Things could easily turn out a bit bumpier in future trade negotiations — but clearly the US administration has altered its tone such that future episodes of weakness should be used as buying opportunities.' Diminished expectations of a recession drove the US stock benchmark above President Donald Trump's April 2 'Liberation Day' level. A surge in big tech shares put the Nasdaq 100 back into a bull market just about a month after it plunged 20% from a previous record. Amid a potential reset in inflation expectations, Treasury yields jumped Monday as traders lowered their Fed wagers to just two rate cuts in 2025. After surging nine basis points Monday, the 10-year yield slipped back two basis points Tuesday. The reverberations of Trump's trade war are likely to keep affecting global markets in coming months. In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Monday that his government won't accept any initial trade agreement with the US that excludes an accord on autos. In China, there was a sense of relief that the trade negotiations between the two biggest economies had quickly borne fruit. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index both closed the day 3% higher Monday. 'We expect the 'trade optimism' to send China equities higher in the near term, with the Hang Seng Index likely to advance closer to its March peak,' Patrick Pan, equity strategist at Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Ltd., wrote in a note. 'We see tactical trading opportunities for 'tariff-hit industries' like electronics, textile, shipping and electrical equipment.' Investors who followed Trump's advice on social media in the past month have enjoyed one of the biggest rallies in the S&P 500 under his leadership. Having slumped on Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement, the benchmark soared in the month after he said it was 'a great time to buy' on April 9 — hours before he paused some of the harshest levies in a century. He reiterated that on May 8, telling reporters the economic outlook warranted piling into stocks. Swaps that track upcoming central bank meetings showed just 56 basis points of easing by December, down from near 75 basis points last week. Traders still see the first quarter-point cut in September. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said the Trump administration's tariff policies are likely to boost inflation and weigh on economic growth, even with the recently announced reduction in levies on China. 'Trade policies are evolving and are likely to continue shifting, even as recently as this morning,' Kugler said Monday in remarks prepared for an event in Dublin. 'Still, they appear likely to generate significant economic effects even if tariffs stay close to the currently announced levels.' –BLOOMBERG
Time of India
13-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Stocks rise across Asia on US-China trade truce
Asian stocks followed gains in US equities on optimism the US-China trade truce marks the end to an all-out tariff war . Shares in Australia and Japan jumped at the open after the S&P 500 closed more than 3% higher. Japan's Topix gained for a 13th day, putting it on track for it longest winning streak in 16 years. A gauge of US-listed Chinese stocks surged 5.4% on Monday in its best session in over two months. The dollar was little changed in Asia after jumping Monday. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Play War Thunder now for free War Thunder Play Now Undo The return of risk appetite came as trade negotiators from the world's two biggest economies announced Monday a massive de-escalation in tariffs. In a carefully coordinated joint statement, the US slashed duties on Chinese products to 30% from 145% for a 90-day period, while Beijing dropped its levy on most goods to 10%. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. For investors shocked into defensive measures at the height of April's chaos, the rebound in markets has been a mixed blessing. Shorting the dollar, going long stock volatility and piling on bets premised on multiple Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts were among the most popular trades in mid-April. Now, their unwinding may be adding fuel to the bounce-back. 'There's very clearly upside risk for the broader risk asset spectrum now as markets will likely extrapolate a higher likelihood of further deals in the coming weeks,' HSBC Bank strategists including Max Kettner wrote in a note to clients. 'Things could easily turn out a bit bumpier in future trade negotiations — but clearly the US administration has altered its tone such that future episodes of weakness should be used as buying opportunities.' Live Events Diminished expectations of a recession drove the US stock benchmark above President Donald Trump's April 2 'Liberation Day' level. A surge in big tech shares put the Nasdaq 100 back into a bull market just about a month after it plunged 20% from a previous record. Amid a potential reset in inflation expectations, Treasury yields jumped Monday as traders lowered their Fed wagers to just two rate cuts in 2025. After surging nine basis points Monday, the 10-year yield slipped back two basis points Tuesday. The reverberations of Trump's trade war are likely to keep affecting global markets in coming months. In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Monday that his government won't accept any initial trade agreement with the US that excludes an accord on autos. In China, there was a sense of relief that the trade negotiations between the two biggest economies had quickly borne fruit. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index both closed the day 3% higher Monday. 'We expect the 'trade optimism' to send China equities higher in the near term, with the Hang Seng Index likely to advance closer to its March peak,' Patrick Pan, equity strategist at Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Ltd., wrote in a note. 'We see tactical trading opportunities for 'tariff-hit industries' like electronics, textile, shipping and electrical equipment.' Investors who followed Trump's advice on social media in the past month have enjoyed one of the biggest rallies in the S&P 500 under his leadership. Having slumped on Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement, the benchmark soared in the month after he said it was 'a great time to buy' on April 9 — hours before he paused some of the harshest levies in a century. He reiterated that on May 8, telling reporters the economic outlook warranted piling into stocks. Swaps that track upcoming central bank meetings showed just 56 basis points of easing by December, down from near 75 basis points last week. Traders still see the first quarter-point cut in September. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said the Trump administration's tariff policies are likely to boost inflation and weigh on economic growth, even with the recently announced reduction in levies on China. 'Trade policies are evolving and are likely to continue shifting, even as recently as this morning,' Kugler said Monday in remarks prepared for an event in Dublin. 'Still, they appear likely to generate significant economic effects even if tariffs stay close to the currently announced levels.'
Yahoo
10-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US Is Not in a Recession, Just a Slowdown, Says HSBC's Kettner
HSBC Chief Multi-Asset Strategist Max Kettner says the US is not in a recession, just a slowdown. But he says a lot of economic data could change things in the next two months. He is on "Bloomberg Surveillance."
Bloomberg
09-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
US Is Not in a Recession, Just a Slowdown, Says HSBC's Kettner
HSBC Chief Multi-Asset Strategist Max Kettner says the US is not in a recession, just a slowdown. But he says a lot of economic data could change things in the next two months. He is on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)
