Latest news with #MaybankInvestmentBankBhd
The Star
3 days ago
- Business
- The Star
Asean currencies seen strengthening this year as US dollar weakens
KUALA LUMPUR: ASEAN currencies are expected to appreciate further this year as global investors diversify away from heavy US exposures, said Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) today. The investment bank noted that all major ASEAN currencies - including the ringgit, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah and Thai baht - are likely to strengthen in 2025. "However, while this may occur, we are not yet convinced there is sufficient evidence of a real structural shift away from the US dollar,' the bank said in a research note. Maybank IB said President Donald Trump's protectionist stance, speculated preference for a weaker dollar, and tax proposals have contributed to recent declines in the greenback. Market volatility, which had surged across asset classes, has only recently begun to ease. The bank said Trump's unpredictability may continue to inject volatility into financial markets. Unlike in previous bouts of risk aversion, the US dollar has been most visibly punished, in line with the prevailing 'Sell America' narrative. "We suggest continuing to sell the US dollar on rallies if the US continues to push its agenda of tariffs," it said. Maybank IB said even as the "Sell America' theme fades, the dollar's downtrend could persist well into the second half of 2025, driven by a slowing US economy, expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the potential for global growth to exceed currently pessimistic forecasts. "We see a possibility of a virtuous circle for Asian currencies, especially with a bearish US dollar allowing regional central banks to cut interest rates further to boost growth, which could in turn be positive for regional currencies,' it added. The investment bank cautioned the market to watch for any signs of trade deals that could be short-term positives for the US dollar and negatives for safe havens such as gold, the Swiss franc, and, to some extent, the Singapore dollar and Thai baht, given the latter's link to gold. "Any bounce in the US dollar should be seen as a short-term unwinding of short positions rather than a bullish reversal to chase,' it added. Maybank Investment Bank also noted that ASEAN's efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar remain limited. "Adoption of local currencies for trade invoicing remains low, while central banks appear only to have engaged in some diversification of their reserves and assets. "There have been increasing inflows into bonds, but we do not believe this is driven by ASEAN's own desire to exit the US dollar or US assets,' it added. - Bernama
The Sun
3 days ago
- Business
- The Sun
Asean currencies to rise amid weak USD
KUALA LUMPUR: Asean currencies are expected to appreciate further this year as global investors diversify away from heavy US exposures, said Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) yesterday. The investment bank noted that all major Asean currencies — including the ringgit, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah and Thai baht — are likely to strengthen in 2025. 'However, while this may occur, we are not yet convinced there is sufficient evidence of a real structural shift away from the US dollar,' the bank said in a research note. Maybank IB said President Donald Trump's protectionist stance, speculated preference for a weaker dollar, and tax proposals have contributed to recent declines in the greenback. Market volatility, which had surged across asset classes, has only recently begun to ease. The bank said Trump's unpredictability may continue to inject volatility into financial markets. Unlike in previous bouts of risk aversion, the US dollar has been most visibly punished, in line with the prevailing 'Sell America' narrative. 'We suggest continuing to sell the US dollar on rallies if the US continues to push its agenda of tariffs,' it said. Maybank IB said even as the 'Sell America' theme fades, the dollar's downtrend could persist well into the second half of 2025, driven by a slowing US economy, expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the potential for global growth to exceed currently pessimistic forecasts. 'We see a possibility of a virtuous circle for Asian currencies, especially with a bearish US dollar allowing regional central banks to cut interest rates further to boost growth, which could in turn be positive for regional currencies,' it added. The investment bank cautioned the market to watch for any signs of trade deals that could be short-term positives for the US dollar and negatives for safe havens such as gold, the Swiss franc, and, to some extent, the Singapore dollar and Thai baht, given the latter's link to gold. 'Any bounce in the US dollar should be seen as a short-term unwinding of short positions rather than a bullish reversal to chase,' it added. Maybank Investment Bank also noted that Asean's efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar remain limited. 'Adoption of local currencies for trade invoicing remains low, while central banks appear only to have engaged in some diversification of their reserves and assets. 'There have been increasing inflows into bonds, but we do not believe this is driven by Asean's own desire to exit the US dollar or US assets,' it added. – Bernama
New Straits Times
3 days ago
- Business
- New Straits Times
Asean currencies seen strenghtening this year as US dollar weakens
KUALA LUMPUR: Asean currencies are expected to appreciate further this year as global investors diversify away from heavy US exposures, said Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) today. The investment bank noted that all major Asean currencies — including the ringgit, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah and Thai baht — are likely to strengthen in 2025. "However, while this may occur, we are not yet convinced there is sufficient evidence of a real structural shift away from the US dollar," the bank said in a research note. Maybank IB said President Donald Trump's protectionist stance, speculated preference for a weaker dollar, and tax proposals have contributed to recent declines in the greenback. Market volatility, which had surged across asset classes, has only recently begun to ease. The bank said Trump's unpredictability may continue to inject volatility into financial markets. Unlike in previous bouts of risk aversion, the US dollar has been most visibly punished, in line with the prevailing 'Sell America' narrative. "We suggest continuing to sell the US dollar on rallies if the US continues to push its agenda of tariffs," it said. Maybank IB said even as the "Sell America" theme fades, the dollar's downtrend could persist well into the second half of 2025, driven by a slowing US economy, expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the potential for global growth to exceed currently pessimistic forecasts. "We see a possibility of a virtuous circle for Asian currencies, especially with a bearish US dollar allowing regional central banks to cut interest rates further to boost growth, which could in turn be positive for regional currencies," it added. The investment bank cautioned the market to watch for any signs of trade deals that could be short-term positives for the US dollar and negatives for safe havens such as gold, the Swiss franc, and, to some extent, the Singapore dollar and Thai baht, given the latter's link to gold. "Any bounce in the US dollar should be seen as a short-term unwinding of short positions rather than a bullish reversal to chase," it added. Maybank Investment Bank also noted that Asean's efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar remain limited. "Adoption of local currencies for trade invoicing remains low, while central banks appear only to have engaged in some diversification of their reserves and assets. "There have been increasing inflows into bonds, but we do not believe this is driven by Asean's own desire to exit the US dollar or US assets," it added.
Malaysiakini
3 days ago
- Business
- Malaysiakini
Asean currencies seen strengthening this year as US dollar weakens
Asean currencies are expected to appreciate further this year as global investors diversify away from heavy US exposures, said Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) today. The investment bank noted that all major Asean currencies - including the ringgit, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah and Thai baht - are likely to strengthen in 2025.
Barnama
16-05-2025
- Business
- Barnama
RESEARCH FIRMS RAISE MALAYSIA'S 1Q 2025 GDP FORECAST TO 4.5-4.6 PCT
BUSINESS KUALA LUMPUR, May 14 (Bernama) -- Research firms have projected a higher gross domestic product (GDP) of between 4.5 and 4.6 per cent from 4.4 per cent previously for the first quarter of 2025 (1Q 2025), ahead of this Friday's announcement. According to Maybank Investment Bank Bhd, this is premised on 'slightly faster growth' for the services sector of 5.3 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) versus 5.2 per cent and agriculture (0.8 per cent y-o-y). 'Smaller contraction in mining sector is projected at -3.2 per cent y-o-y, slower expansion in construction (13.9 per cent) and manufacturing (4.2 per cent),' it said in a research note. Meanwhile, Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB) also revised up its 1Q 2025 GDP growth estimate to 4.5 per cent y-o-y, above Statistics Department Malaysia's advance estimate of 4.4 per cent y-o-y, supported by sustained, albeit moderating, expansion in the services, manufacturing and construction sectors. It also maintained expectations for Malaysia's economic growth to moderate to +4.0 per cent y-o-y in 2025 on the back of sustained domestic demand, supported by employment and wage gains, further bolstered by supportive fiscal policy measures. 'While the US has initiated a pause on tariff rates on its trading partners, including Malaysia and China, the higher tariff rates compared to last year and the fluidity of trade policy could make businesses adopt a more cautious stance towards major investment and hiring plans,' it said. Echoing HLIB, CIMB Investment Bank Bhd said the estimated 4.5 per cent in the 1Q 2025 GDP growth is expected to be driven by a slower pace of construction at 16.6 per cent y-o-y compared to the 23.1 per cent in 4Q 2024 and easing industrial output (2.3 per cent versus 3.4 per cent in 4Q 2024) 'Quarterly growth in distributive trade volumes held steady at 4.3 per cent y-o-y in 1Q 2025 (4Q 2024: 4.4 per cent), but overall services volume growth moderated to 5.3 per cent in 1Q 2025 (4Q 2024: 6.1 per cent), weighed down by slower expansion in the food and beverages, finance and insurance, info and communication, private education, healthcare, and recreation subsectors,' it said. CIMB said global headwinds, including US trade policy uncertainty and US-China tensions, cloud Malaysia's growth outlook.
