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USA Today
a day ago
- Climate
- USA Today
Hurricane season news: What's happening off the Southeast Coast?
Hurricane season news: What's happening off the Southeast Coast? Show Caption Hide Caption Hurricane season will be a busy one, experts say Dr. Michael Brennan, Director of the National Hurricane Center, said he expected a busy hurricane season and urged people to begin to prepare. The 2025 hurricane season is off to a peaceful start with no major looming threats, but the National Hurricane Center is keeping watch over a low-risk potential system in the Atlantic Ocean along the Southeastern Coast. If the disturbed weather remains offshore, it's expected to become a low pressure system and could gradually develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics, the hurricane center said. Sub tropical storms have generally cold cores, and are often associated with upper level low pressure areas, with the highest winds farther away from the center, unlike a tropical storm where the most intense winds are found at the center. The hurricane center puts the chance of formation at only 10 percent as it moves northeastward 10-15 mph over the next seven days. Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist with WPLG TV in Miami, said a cold front moving eastward across the United States is expected to sweep the system out to sea over the weekend. Meanwhile, meteorologist Matt Lanza says images circulating of a forecast showing a storm brewing in early June actually show a "phantom" — a single run of an unreliable model not supported by other forecasts. Tropical weather experts warn that low-quality forecast data can easily be taken out-of-context during hurricane season, and urge people to be skeptical of weather posts circulating on social media. Here's a look at what to know about the Atlantic Hurricane season so far: What's happening off the Southeast Coast? Local National Weather Service offices in the Southeast are watching along the coast where a low pressure area may form over the next couple of days offshore of Georgia and the Carolinas. The system presents kind of a mixed bag for coastal residents, with a forecast for potentially heavy rain regardless of what happens. If a low pressure system develops, it's expected to be non-tropical which is good news, because it likely won't have the kind of warm core that can pull in energy from the warm ocean and spin up a low pressure area into a tropical storm. However, the low is expected to contribute to localized flooding risks, whether it develops any further or not, according to the Jacksonville weather service office. As a result of the clouds and storminess and an expected stalled front, isolated locations in Northeast Florida and Georgia could see up to 4-6 inches of rain through Thursday, the weather service said. Rain chances also are elevated along the coast in the Carolinas., where residents have been enduring lingering smoke from the Canadian wildfires. The potential low pressure area is part of an old front that drenched parts of Florida on Monday, said Lowry in his June 3 tropical weather newsletter. "The disorganized storminess is decidedly non-tropical but dying cold fronts – a holdover from spring months during the start of the hurricane season – can spawn areas of low pressure that take on tropical characteristics if they linger over warm water long enough." The broad area of disturbed weather might try to form a "disorganized area of low pressureWednesday evening somewhere off of the South Carolina/Georgia Coastline," said the weather service office in Miami. Don't trust social media posts about spectacular forecasts A numerical weather model known as the Global Forecast System, from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, is at the center of the latest social media-fueled meteorology controversy. The model generates data on the atmosphere, temperatures, winds and soil conditions but it's often wildly unreliable at successfully predicting the formation and track of tropical systems. Its unreliability doesn't stop people from posting random images of its output on social media, where professional meteorologists often criticize the posts for unnecessarily hyping unrealistic scenarios. Earlier in the week, the GFS as it is known was showing chances of a storm in 10-days to two weeks. However, in a post to the digital Houston-based newsletter The Eyewall on June 3, meteorologist Matt Lanza called it a "phantom." No other model shows any support for such a forecast, Lanza wrote. The hurricane center and others have long encouraged residents in hurricane-prone areas to not give too much credence to the variety of forecast models widely available publicly, and to stick to the official forecasts and forecasts from trusted local meteorologists instead. Someone who tries to interpret the models, known as "spaghetti" model maps, without knowing the difference between models and which are more skillful than others 'is probably not helping themselves,' James Franklin, a retired branch chief for the center's hurricane specialists, previously told USA TODAY. For similar reasons, meteorologists also have warned that people shouldn't be alarmed by the hurricane center's discussions of tropical waves its forecasters are watching. The waves are common in the Atlantic, but fewer than a couple of dozen later become hurricanes or tropical storms. Storm forecasts: How the National Hurricane Center predicts and tracks tropical systems Dust and tropical storm Alvin round out hurricane season news A wave of dust from the Sahara Desert in Africa, a typical summer phenomenon, is reaching the Caribbean and Southeastern U.S. and that should begin to reduce the rain chances over southern Florida, the weather service said. Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate change and the environment for USA TODAY. She's written about hurricanes, tornadoes and violent weather for more than 30 years. Reach her at dpulver@ or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
NHC monitoring disturbance off Florida's coast: Could it become tropical depression, storm?
The Brief The National Hurricane Center is watching a disturbance situated off Florida's coast for potential development. As of Tuesday, there is a 10% chance of formation over the next seven days. Even if the system does not reach tropical designation, Florida could see impacts, including gusty winds, rougher surf and enhanced thunderstorm chances. ORLANDO, Fla. - The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping a close eye on the first disturbance of the 2025 season, located off Florida's eastern coast. What we know As of Tuesday morning, a non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form near or offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast over the next two to three days. Dig deeper Chances of development remain low – 10% – over the next seven days, but if the system remains offshore, it could slowly develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics later this week, the NHC said. "That's a pretty typical location for formation as we get into June," NHC Director Michael Brennan told FOX Weather. "This is where we tend to see storms form in June, from the Gulf, across Florida, off the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. So, it's a great reminder that typically in June, those storms do tend to form pretty close to home, and people need to be ready and keep an eye out." One major factor in determining tropical development is how close this system stays to land. RELATED |2025 hurricane season starts: This year's outlook, how Florida residents can prepare The low is expected to remain either over land or very close to the coast, which would limit any potential for organization early on, according to FOX Weather. However, if the system moves off the southeastern U.S. coast, there could be a low chance of tropical development there. Local perspective For Florida – even if the system does not reach tropical designation – it could bring a few days of gusty onshore winds (25–35 mph) along the east coast from Jacksonville to Florida's Space Coast. It may also lead to rougher surf from Thursday to Friday and increase the chances of thunderstorms during that same period. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, and much like last year, the FOX 35 Storm Team expects a lot of ocean heat content to fuel the potential for an above-average season. Experts at both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU) share a similar outlook: What we know NOAA's hurricane forecast: 13-19 named storms 6-10 hurricanes 3-5 major hurricanes (Cat. 3 or higher) CSU's hurricane forecast: 17 named tropical storms Of which, 9 become hurricanes Of which, 4 reach "major" hurricane strength (Cat. 3 or higher) Big picture view According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, an average Atlantic hurricane season sees: 14 named tropical storms 7 hurricanes 3 "major" hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) Dig deeper There are a multitude of factors in the atmosphere that will heighten the chance of an above-average season. The climate pattern has been shifting, and it's looking like we're going to remain in the Neutral Phase of ENSO. With that, we typically see reduced wind shear in the Atlantic Basin which means storms can form and strengthen rapidly. That strengthening is only exacerbated by the warmer than average ocean temperatures. That along with more active Western African Monsoon can help spin-up more tropical systems. Colorado State University also looks at the probability of whether a "major" hurricane – Category 3, 4, or 5 storm – will make landfall in the U.S., along Florida's Coast, or within the Gulf Coast. 51% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%). 26% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%). 33% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas(average from 1880–2020 is 27%). 56% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%) Here are the tropical cyclone names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Click here to view the pronunciation guide. Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy It's never too early to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season – or any emergency. It's important to have a plan, have ways to communicate and get emergency information, save and protect important documents, medication, and have extra food and water. Click the links below for helpful guides on what to pack in your emergency kit: Florida Disaster Supply Kit Checklist emergency kit Here are a few other key ways to prepare for hurricane season in Florida: Know your evacuation zone and route by checking Stay informed by downloading weather apps, signing up for local alerts, and monitoring trusted news sources. Plan for pets and vulnerable family members, including elderly relatives or those with medical needs. Back up important digital files and contacts in case of power outages or loss of access. The FOX 35 Storm Team and newsroom will be with you every step of the way during hurricane season. Download the free FOX Local app to your smart phone for the latest breaking news, weather updates, and tropical forecasts. Download the FOX 35 Weather app to track the latest weather forecasts and tropical cones on your cell phone. Install the FOX Local app to your smart TV to stream FOX 35 newscasts. STAY CONNECTED WITH FOX 35 ORLANDO: Download the FOX Local app for breaking news alerts, the latest news headlines Download the FOX 35 Storm Team Weather app for weather alerts & radar Sign up for FOX 35's daily newsletter for the latest morning headlines FOX Local:Stream FOX 35 newscasts, FOX 35 News+, Central Florida Eats on your smart TV The Source This story was written based on information shared by the National Hurricane Center on June 3, 2025. FOX Weather also contributed to this report.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Stalled front over Florida fueling heavy rain, flash flooding could gain tropical characteristics this week
MIAMI – Florida is forecast to get soaked with days of heavy rain this week, prompting an elevated risk of flash flooding as an area of low pressure fueled by tropical moisture from the Gulf and Caribbean develops over South Florida. This system could even take on some tropical characteristics by the end of the week. "I wouldn't be terribly surprised if we saw a low chance off the Southeast coast pop up on the (tropical weather) outlook sometime later today or tomorrow," National Hurricane Center (NHC) Director Michael Brennan told FOX Weather Monday morning, referring to the NHC's seven-day tropical weather outlook. Atlantic Hurricane Season Kicks Off Without Named Storm For Fourth Year In A Row While computer forecast models are not in agreement regarding the exact track of this system, South Florida is expected to see the bulk of the rain. Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach could all pick up 3-5 inches of rainfall by Friday. As the system stalls, a few severe thunderstorms are possible Monday across the Florida Peninsula, where a Level 1 out of 5 risk of severe weather has been issued by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Meanwhile, a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood threat is posted for South Florida on Monday and Tuesday, according to Noaa's Weather Prediction Center. "[With] tropical afternoon thundershowers, you've got the heavy rain, the lightning, the wind," FOX Weather Meteorologist Michael Estime warned. "It's everything falling from the sky at that point." Bryan Norcross: Welcome To Hurricane Season 2025 "It's hard to drive in those situations," FOX Weather Meteorologist Craig Herrera added. Forecasters are closely monitoring this system to see whether it develops any tropical characteristics that would warrant an outlook from the NHC. The area off the southeastern U.s. coast generally supports tropical development this time of year. "That's a pretty typical location for formation as we get into June," Brennan said. "This is where we tend to see storms form in June, from the Gulf, across Florida, off the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coast. It's a great reminder that, typically in June, those storms do tend to form pretty close to home, and people need to be ready and keep an eye out." One major factor in determining tropical development is how close this system stays to land. "The low is expected to remain either over land or very close to the coast, which would limit any potential for organization early on," the FOX Forecast Center noted. However, if the system moves off the southeastern U.S. coast, there could be a low chance of tropical development there. More tropical moisture is expected to arrive in Florida by Thursday, bringing more thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. The rain from this system should alleviate some of the ongoing drought conditions in Florida as the dry season comes to an end for the Sunshine article source: Stalled front over Florida fueling heavy rain, flash flooding could gain tropical characteristics this week
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Hurricane season is here, and the nation's top forecaster has an urgent message
No one could have foreseen how traumatic Hurricane Helene would be for so many people in so many states, but it underscores precisely why National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan stresses individual preparation for hurricane season, which begins June 1. The biggest thing people need to know is their own risk – from storm surge, wind, heavy rainfall, flooding, tornadoes and rip currents – regardless of how far they live from where a tropical storm or hurricane makes landfall, Brennan says. Helene and its aftermath, which killed 248 and caused almost $80 billion in damage, clearly demonstrated how destruction can occur miles inland or far from landfall. 'Getting ready for hurricane season is all about knowing that risk and starting the hurricane season ready for what that risk might be and how it might present itself to you,' Brennan said in a chat with USA TODAY about what people need to know and do as the season begins. If he could speak with each one of the more than 200 million people who face hurricane risks in the United States, he would remind them to stay focused on: Your risks, especially for storm surge and flooding. Early planning and preparation. The hazards of each storm. Conditions immediately after the storm. Here are eight things Brennan wants you to remember: If you live in a storm surge zone, evacuation must be the basis of your hurricane preparedness plan, Brennan said. Consult your local government's website to find out if you live in an evacuation zone. It's important to understand you don't have to drive hundreds of miles to escape the danger of rapidly rising seawater. Most of the time, you can drive only tens of miles to get out of the storm surge evacuation zone, he said. 'It makes evacuation a lot more manageable for people if you don't feel like you're going to have to get in the car and drive hours and hours to go someplace you've never been before to be safe.' In advance, ask friends and relatives who live nearby but away from the surge threat, if you could stay with them. The other option is to plan to "get to a safe hotel that gets you away from the storm surge threat, where you can ride out the storm and then deal with the aftermath." Start planning now what you would do for your pets, elderly relatives and other folks that might have medical devices, medical conditions or other special needs. Flooding has almost nothing to do with how strong a storm is from a wind perspective, Brennan said. "It doesn't take a major hurricane, or even a hurricane, to cause life-threatening rainfall or flooding where you live. It can flood anywhere it can rain. 'It doesn't even have to rain where you are,' he said. It can just rain hard somewhere else upstream, and if you're on a waterway, that water could rise and flood you out of your home. 'Freshwater flooding from rainfall has killed more people in tropical storms or hurricanes over the last nine or 10 years in the United States than any other hazard,' he said. 'Helene is an unfortunate example of that.' Of 175 people who died as a direct result of Helene's winds and rain, 95 lost their lives because of freshwater flooding, he said. If you live in a flood-prone area, even inland along a creek or a stream, have an evacuation plan for you and your family if you are threatened. Have flood insurance. Remember that homeowners insurance doesn't usually cover flood damage. If you think you've seen the worst where you live from flooding or wind, it is 'almost positively not the worst,' Brennan said. 'It's likely that the events you've seen are only a small piece of what could actually happen. Don't base your response or decision to evacuate based what happened during the last storm. "Take each storm on its own and try not to compare," he said. You could have a very similar storm, on a similar track, but during a different time of year, or different conditions, and it could make a huge difference in what happens where you live. 'There were a lot of people that died in Hurricane Katrina along the Mississippi coast because they survived Camille and they thought nothing could ever be worse,' but Katrina was worse and people didn't leave, he said. 'You don't want to become a victim to a past storm by not preparing and taking action when another storm threatens you.' 'The most powerful hurricanes that have hit the United States have all formed and made landfall within three or four days," Brennan said. 'Even Helene last year went from not even a tropical depression to making landfall within three or four days after it rapidly intensified." Have that plan in place for yourself and your family now, he said. "You could have a storm really develop and threaten you within just a couple of days, and that's not the time to develop your hurricane plan. That's when you want to put (the plan) into practice.' How do hurricanes form? An inside look at the birth and power of ferocious storms 'If you're in a hurricane-prone area, you have to be ready every year, regardless of whether we're expecting an average season, below average, above average. That risk is there for everyone every year," he said. "We had three hurricane landfalls in Florida last year, five along the Gulf Coast. We've had 25 hurricane landfalls in the United States since 2017." "We have lots of products to tell people what their risk is from wind, storm surge and from heavy rainfall flooding," Brennan said. "The mix of those hazards is going to vary from storm to storm and from location to location within the same storm. You really have to drill down and find that information." A slow-moving tropical storm can cause deadly flooding even without ever becoming a hurricane, and a fast-moving storm like Helene can carry higher winds much farther inland. "A storm making landfall along the Gulf Coast can cause dangerous flooding in the Mid-Atlantic states, like we saw with Ida back in 2021," he said. Ida made landfall in Louisiana, but most of the fatalities were up in New York and New Jersey from freshwater flooding days later and hundreds of miles away from landfall. 'Make sure you know where to find authoritative information in terms of evacuations and other safety information," Brennan said. "Make those decisions now, ahead of the storm." Find your trusted media, your local National Weather Service office, your state and local government officials, and follow them on social media. When deciding whether to evacuate, consider what life could be like after the storm. Does anyone in your home rely on electricity for medical devices or to keep medicine refrigerated? Do you have a generator and know how to use it safely? Over the past nine or 10 years, "we've lost almost as many people in these indirect deaths that largely occur after a storm as we have to the direct storm itself," he said. Many of those are due to an unsafe environment, including the loss of electricity. Medical devices fail. Heat causes fatalities. First responders often can't reach those having medical emergencies. One of the biggest causes of death after storms are vehicle accidents, he said. "When you've been asked to leave, it's to keep you safe from the storm surge or other effects of the storm. It's also to keep you safe after the storm." Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about hurricanes, violent weather and other environmental issues. Reach her at dpulver@ or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NHC director has urgent message as hurricane seasons starts
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
What to expect as the 2025 hurricane season begins
Good morning, all. If you're about to get ready for the day, don't forget to wash your face — experts say it's not just a nighttime thing. Now, on to the news. Subscribe to get this newsletter in your inbox each morning. Hurricane season officially began yesterday, threatening to bring dangerous weather to as many as 200 million people in the U.S. through the end of November. Here's what to know. A busy season: NOAA forecasters predict an above-average season, with a 60% chance of 13 to 19 named storms, up to 10 of which are expected to become hurricanes. However, the season is off to a quiet start so far. [CBS News/Fox Weather] Federal cuts: Experts have worried that the large-scale staff reductions, travel and training restrictions and grant cutoffs at FEMA and NOAA since President Trump took office may affect disaster response — though the agencies say they're prepared. [AP] Getting ready: Flooding and dangerous winds can hit miles inland or far from landfall. National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said it's important for people to understand their risks and plan accordingly. Read his advice and some basic steps to prepare. [USA Today] ➡️ Colorado attackEight people were hospitalized with burns after what authorities called a 'terror attack' in Colorado involving a 'makeshift flamethrower' on pro-Israel demonstrators. The suspect, Mohamed Sabry Soliman, was arrested. [ABC News] 🌏 Russia-Ukraine peace talks Russian and Ukrainian officials began a second round of direct peace talks in Istanbul, hours after Ukraine launched a massive drone operation deep inside Russia that struck air bases and set Russian aircraft on fire. [Reuters/CNN] 🩺 New cancer research New studies presented at the American Society of Clinical Oncology's annual meeting showed that exercise may be better than some drugs at preventing colon cancer recurrence, and how 'liquid biopsies' may help control some breast cancers. [NBC News] 📺 Big Netflix news At Netflix's Tudum event, the streamer debuted trailers for Happy Gilmore 2 and the final season of Stranger Things, and Lady Gaga emerged from a coffin to perform 'Abracadabra' and reveal her role on Wednesday. [USA Today] 💒 A Bills bride Sinners actress Hailee Steinfeld tied the knot with Buffalo Bills QB (and 2024 NFL MVP) Josh Allen in a wedding that included Seinfeld creator Larry David as a surprise guest. See the photos. [New York Post] 📚 On bookshelves: Author James Patterson and former President Bill Clinton released their new novel, The First Gentleman, which follows the U.S. president as her husband faces trial for murder. Read an excerpt. [CBS News] 📺 On the tube: Season 12 of the seafaring reality TV show Below Deck premieres at 8 p.m. ET on Bravo — and there's already a scandal! [Reality Tea] ⚾ On the field, the Mets bring their three-game win streak into a series with the Dodgers, starting at 10:10 p.m. ET on the MLB app. [AP] ☀️ And don't forget to: Read your daily horoscope. Play the crossword. Check the forecast in your area. In 1953, Queen Elizabeth II was crowned. Over 8,000 guests attended the coronation in Westminster Abbey, which took months to plan. Check out these rare photos from that day. [People] The sex trafficking and racketeering trial for Sean 'Diddy' Combs, who's pleaded not guilty, enters its fourth week today. I caught up with Yahoo News reporter Dylan Stableford about it. Jessica: What have we seen in the trial so far? Dylan: Prosecutors have been laying out the case against Combs, calling 21 witnesses to testify against him. They've painted him as abusive, threatening and violent. The defense has argued he's not being tried for those things, and that the government has to prove his behavior was part of a criminal enterprise. Dylan: The revelations have really been in the details, many of them gruesome. We already knew about Ventura's abuse claims from her explosive 2023 lawsuit, for example, but she spent four days testifying about the harrowing physical and emotional trauma she experienced. Dylan: Defense lawyers are usually reluctant to have defendants testify unless it's a last resort, and they've given no indication Combs will do so. But they also told the judge this week that even if the prosecution rests earlier than expected, they still may take up to July 4 to present their side of the story. Stay updated: Follow Dylan's coverage of the trial. Researchers say that a red dot found on a rock in Spain may not only be the oldest human fingerprint ever recorded (43,000 years old) but also one of the oldest symbolic art objects ever found in Europe due to the rock's face-like features. What do you think? [LiveScience] Have a great day. See you tomorrow! 💡 P.S. Before you go, your daily advice: If you're flying with United Airlines soon, brush up on its new check-in policy, which goes into effect tomorrow. [Yahoo News] About The Yodel: The Yodel is a morning newsletter from Yahoo News. Start your day with The Yodel to get caught up on weather, national news, politics, entertainment and sports — in four minutes or less. Did you like this morning's newsletter? Subscribe to have it sent to you on weekdays. By signing up, you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.
