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Indianapolis Star
an hour ago
- Climate
- Indianapolis Star
What is Hurricane Erin projected path? NOAA storm tracker map, spaghetti models, weather radar
Beachgoing Indiana tourists should pay close attention to Hurricane Erin on Tuesday as large waves and rough surf are predicted to pound the Atlantic Coast from Central Florida to Canada. North Carolina is on high alert, as the popular vacation location of Dare County is under a state of emergency. The county's website reports a permanent population of about 37,000 — but the population balloons from June through August to about 225,000 to 300,000. Here's what you need to know from the NOAA's National Hurricane Center if you have East Coast travel plans: This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts. Hurricane Erin live updates: Storm starts rough slog up US East Coast Dangerous conditions in the surf zone with large, breaking waves are forecast from East Central Florida to Canada's Atlantic Coast beginning Tuesday, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan has warned. Brennan is pleading with U.S. residents to take Erin's potential coastal impacts seriously, even though the nation will be spared a direct landfall. Offshore wave heights could exceed 20 to 30 feet. High tides are also expected to bring higher-than-normal water levels further southward along the coast, the weather service has warned. "It's not going to be a safe environment to be in the ocean," Brennan said, adding that even when the weather may be pleasant on shore, dangerous and possibly life-threatening rip currents could be lurking in the water. Because of its slow movement, coastal areas of North Carolina are expected to feel the brunt of the ocean's impacts for several days, according to the weather service office in Newport/Morehead City. Mandatory evacuations were issued Aug. 18 for Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island. At its closest point, Erin is forecast to be about 200 miles off Cape Hatteras. Erin's mean diameter at 11 p.m. on Aug. 18 was roughly 355 miles, but the storm was creating 10-foot seas across an area of the Atlantic Ocean roughly 645 miles in diameter, according to hurricane center data. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center, with the greatest distance on the eastern side of the storm. Further south along the North Carolina coast, emergency officials rescued at least 60 people caught in rip currents and heavy surf on Aug. 18 in Wrightsville Beach, prompting a "no swimming" advisory through Friday. Evacuations were underway along parts of North Carolina's Outer Banks, a big draw for vacationers every summer. With Hurricane Erin's expected storm surge and waves of over 10 feet, the National Weather Service was urging people to stay out of the ocean to avoid deadly surf conditions expected through at least Thursday. Officials in Dare County warned that roads, including the main exit route, could soon be overwhelmed by water. "Dare County remains under a State of Emergency and a Mandatory Evacuation order is in effect for Hatteras Island," the county posted on social media. "Please note that N.C. Hwy. 12 may be impassable by August 19 at 5 p.m." The hurricane center warned that storm surge could cause the water to rise 2 to 4 feet above dry ground along the Outer Banks as Erin pushes northward. In neighboring Hyde County, a mandatory evacuation order went into effect Tuesday for Ocracoke Island. In addition to Erin, the hurricane center said it is also keeping an eye on a tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Following behind Erin is yet another tropical wave that's given a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next seven days, the hurricane center said. A third disturbance just moved off the West African coast, but it's expected to encounter hostile conditions that may limit its further development. Thunderstorms are possible at times across Central Indiana today and across southern portions of the area this evening, according to a NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook. Isolated severe storms with damaging winds are possible, mainly this afternoon. Hot and humid conditions continue this afternoon — especially over southern portions of Indiana, where heat indices will reach into the 100- to 105-degree range. Showers and thunderstorms are expected after 4 p.m. in Central Indiana with a high temperature near 91. The chance of precipitation is 60%. Later this evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected before 8 p.m., with isolated showers between 8 and 9 p.m. Expect low temperatures near 69 this evening with a chance of precipitation at 30%. Delaying potentially lifesaving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends.
7 hours ago
- Climate
What to know about powerful Hurricane Erin as it heads past the US East Coast
Island communities off the coast of North Carolina are bracing for flooding ahead of the year's first Atlantic hurricane, Hurricane Erin. Although forecasters are confident that the storm won't make direct landfall in the United States, authorities on a few islands along North Carolina's Outer Banks issued evacuation orders and warned that some roads could be swamped by waves of 15 feet (4.6 meters). By Monday night the storm's top sustained winds had dropped to 130 mph (210 kph) but it's still a major, dangerous hurricane. Tropical storm warnings were in effect for the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami. Here is what to know about Hurricane Erin. Forecasters say Erin will turn northeast — and away — from the eastern U.S. Still, the storm is expected to bring tropical storm force winds, dangerous waves and rip currents to North Carolina's coast. That is according to Dave Roberts of the National Hurricane Center. Coastal flooding in North Carolina is expected to begin Tuesday. Evacuations were being ordered on Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island along North Carolina's Outer Banks even though the storm is unlikely to make direct landfall. Authorities warned that some roads could be swamped by waves of 15 feet (4.6 meters). The orders come at the height of tourist season on the thin stretch of low-lying barrier islands that juts far into the Atlantic Ocean. There are concerns that several days of heavy surf, high winds and waves could wash out parts of the main highway running along the barrier islands, the National Weather Service said. Some routes could be impassible for several days. Portions of Highway 12 on Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands are most at risk for storm surge, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said. Erin's outer edges hit parts of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with heavy rains and tropical-storm winds on Sunday, knocking out power for thousands. Storm surge is the level at which sea water rises above its normal level. Much like the way a storm's sustained winds do not include the potential for even stronger gusts, storm surge doesn't include the wave height above the mean water level. Surge is also the amount above what the normal tide is at a time, so a 15-foot storm surge at high tide can be far more devastating than the same surge at low tide. Government officials in the Turks and Caicos Islands, which has a population of just over 46,000, said all services were suspended on three of its islands and ordered residents there to stay home. The easternmost islands of the British territory have been most impacted by heavy rainfall and powerful winds. Bermuda won't feel the full intensity of the storm until Thursday evening, acting Minister of National Security Jache Adams said, and services on the island were still 'open for business" on Monday afternoon. But Adams issued a stark warning that storm surge, which could reach up to 24 feet (7.3 meters) by Thursday, would make waters too dangerous to swim, surf or boat in. A year ago, Hurricane Ernesto stayed hundreds of miles offshore from the U.S. Eastern seaboard yet still produced high surf and swells that caused coastal damage. Erin's strength has fluctuated significantly over the past week. The most common way to measure a hurricane's strength is the Saffir-Simpson Scale that assigns a category from 1 to 5 based on a storm's sustained wind speed at its center, with 5 being the strongest. Erin reached a dangerous Category 5 status Saturday with 160 mph (260 kph) winds before weakening. It is expected to remain a large, major hurricane into midweek. 'You're dealing with a major hurricane. The intensity is fluctuating. It's a dangerous hurricane in any event,' the hurricane center's Richard Pasch said. Although Erin is the first Atlantic hurricane of the year, there have been four tropical storms this hurricane season already. Tropical Storm Chantal made the first U.S. landfall of the season in early July, and its remnants caused flooding in North Carolina that killed an 83-year-old woman when her car was swept off a rural road. And at least 132 people were killed in floodwaters that overwhelmed Texas Hill Country on the Fourth of July.
Bloomberg
12 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Australia Seeks Economic Reform to Boost Productivity
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers is hosting a gathering of politicians, experts and business leaders in a bid to discuss productivity. It comes at a time where the country's performance is lagging the most in the developed world. Speaking with Bloomberg: The Asia Trade, e61 Institute CEO and Former Australian Productivity Commission Chair Michael Brennan says a more dynamic labor force is needed, to achieve the nation's goals. (Source: Bloomberg)
Chicago Tribune
a day ago
- Climate
- Chicago Tribune
What to know about powerful Hurricane Erin as it heads toward the US East Coast
Island communities off the coast of North Carolina are bracing for flooding ahead of the year's first Atlantic hurricane, Hurricane Erin. Although forecasters are confident that the storm won't make direct landfall in the United States, authorities on a few islands along North Carolina's Outer Banks issued evacuation orders and warned that some roads could be swamped by waves of 15 feet. The monster storm intensified to a Category 4 with 140 mph maximum sustained winds early Monday while it started to lash the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami. Stronger, bigger Hurricane Erin forecast to create dangerous surf along US coastTropical storm warnings were in effect for the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, the hurricane center said. Here is what to know about Hurricane Erin. Forecasters say Erin will turn northeast — and away — from the eastern U.S. Still, the storm is expected to bring tropical storm force winds, dangerous waves and rip currents to North Carolina's coast. That is according to Dave Roberts of the National Hurricane Center. Coastal flooding in North Carolina is expected to begin Tuesday. Evacuations were being ordered on Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island along North Carolina's Outer Banks even though the storm is unlikely to make direct landfall. Authorities warned that some roads could be swamped by waves of 15 feet. The orders come at the height of tourist season on the thin stretch of low-lying barrier islands that juts far into the Atlantic Ocean. There are concerns that several days of heavy surf, high winds and waves could wash out parts of the main highway running along the barrier islands, the National Weather Service said. Some routes could be impassible for several days. Portions of Highway 12 on Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands are most at risk for storm surge, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said. Erin's outer bands hit parts of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with heavy rains and tropical-storm winds on Sunday. Storm surge is the level at which sea water rises above its normal level. Much like the way a storm's sustained winds do not include the potential for even stronger gusts, storm surge doesn't include the wave height above the mean water level. Surge is also the amount above what the normal tide is at a time, so a 15-foot storm surge at high tide can be far more devastating than the same surge at low tide. Erin's strength has fluctuated significantly over the past week. The most common way to measure a hurricane's strength is the Saffir-Simpson Scale that assigns a category from 1 to 5 based on a storm's sustained wind speed at its center, with 5 being the strongest. Erin reached a dangerous Category 5 status Saturday with 160 mph winds before weakening. It is expected to remain a large, major hurricane into midweek. 'You're dealing with a major hurricane. The intensity is fluctuating. It's a dangerous hurricane in any event,' the hurricane center's Richard Pasch said. Although Erin is the first Atlantic hurricane of the year, there have been four tropical storms this hurricane season already. Tropical Storm Chantal made the first U.S. landfall of the season in early July, and its remnants caused flooding in North Carolina that killed an 83-year-old woman when her car was swept off a rural road. And at least 132 people were killed in floodwaters that overwhelmed Texas Hill Country on the Fourth of July. Just over a week later, flash floods inundated New York City and parts of New Jersey, claiming two lives.
Winnipeg Free Press
a day ago
- Climate
- Winnipeg Free Press
What to know about powerful Hurricane Erin as it heads toward the US East Coast
Island communities off the coast of North Carolina are bracing for flooding ahead of the year's first Atlantic hurricane, Hurricane Erin. Although forecasters are confident that the storm won't make direct landfall in the United States, authorities on a few islands along North Carolina's Outer Banks issued evacuation orders and warned that some roads could be swamped by waves of 15 feet (4.6 meters). The monster storm intensified to a Category 4 with 140 mph (225 kph) maximum sustained winds early Monday while it started to lash the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami. Tropical storm warnings were in effect for the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, the hurricane center said. Here is what to know about Hurricane Erin. Storm surge, high winds expected along North Carolina's coast Forecasters say Erin will turn northeast — and away — from the eastern U.S. Still, the storm is expected to bring tropical storm force winds, dangerous waves and rip currents to North Carolina's coast. That is according to Dave Roberts of the National Hurricane Center. Coastal flooding in North Carolina is expected to begin Tuesday. Evacuations were being ordered on Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island along North Carolina's Outer Banks even though the storm is unlikely to make direct landfall. Authorities warned that some roads could be swamped by waves of 15 feet (4.6 meters). The orders come at the height of tourist season on the thin stretch of low-lying barrier islands that juts far into the Atlantic Ocean. There are concerns that several days of heavy surf, high winds and waves could wash out parts of the main highway running along the barrier islands, the National Weather Service said. Some routes could be impassible for several days. Portions of Highway 12 on Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands are most at risk for storm surge, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said. Erin's outer bands hit parts of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with heavy rains and tropical-storm winds on Sunday. Potentially devastating impacts Storm surge is the level at which sea water rises above its normal level. Much like the way a storm's sustained winds do not include the potential for even stronger gusts, storm surge doesn't include the wave height above the mean water level. Surge is also the amount above what the normal tide is at a time, so a 15-foot storm surge at high tide can be far more devastating than the same surge at low tide. Fluctuating strength Erin's strength has fluctuated significantly over the past week. The most common way to measure a hurricane's strength is the Saffir-Simpson Scale that assigns a category from 1 to 5 based on a storm's sustained wind speed at its center, with 5 being the strongest. Erin reached a dangerous Category 5 status Saturday with 160 mph (260 kph) winds before weakening. It is expected to remain a large, major hurricane into midweek. 'You're dealing with a major hurricane. The intensity is fluctuating. It's a dangerous hurricane in any event,' the hurricane center's Richard Pasch said. Lethal summer of floods Although Erin is the first Atlantic hurricane of the year, there have been four tropical storms this hurricane season already. Tropical Storm Chantal made the first U.S. landfall of the season in early July, and its remnants caused flooding in North Carolina that killed an 83-year-old woman when her car was swept off a rural road. And at least 132 people were killed in floodwaters that overwhelmed Texas Hill Country on the Fourth of July. Just over a week later, flash floods inundated New York City and parts of New Jersey, claiming two lives.
