Latest news with #MichaelCline
Yahoo
05-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
NC on pace to pass Ohio, Georgia, official says
TRIAD — All of the recent trends in North Carolina's rapid population growth are expected to continue so that within five years North Carolina will jump from ninth-largest to seventh even as birth rates decline and the average age keeps going up, the state demographer reports. The U.S. Census Bureau's updated population estimate in December said that North Carolina's population had passed 11 million, and State Demographer Michael Cline estimated in his report '7 Trends Ahead' that by 2030 it will reach 11.7 million, which probably will be more than the populations of Ohio and Georgia, currently the seventh- and eighth-largest states. The state's population growth has accelerated since the 1970s as the state began to attract more and more in-migration from other places even though birth rates here were declining. People moving into North Carolina now account for more than 90% of the state's growth, and in the 2030s it will account for all of the growth as deaths begin to outnumber births, Cline wrote. 'This means eventually more North Carolinians will be born outside the state than those born within it,' he wrote. 'According to the 2023 American Community Survey, approximately 47% of North Carolina's population was born outside of North Carolina — including nine% who were born outside of the United States.' With the growing influx from other places, the proportion of people of Hispanic and Asian descent has grown, and that is expected to continue, he said. And while Cline expects the number of young children in the state to rise, he wrote that the older population will grow more. 'By the end of this decade, 1 of every 5 North Carolinians will be at least 65 years old and by the early part of next decade, there will be more older adults (age 65+) than children (ages 0 through 17) in North Carolina,' he wrote. Population growth has been concentrated in the state's 22 urban and suburban counties, which account for about two-thirds of the state's population, he said. By 2030, the urban and suburban population will rise to 69% of the total, and by 2060 it is projected to be 77%.
Axios
03-03-2025
- Business
- Axios
Report: North Carolina will be 7th most populous state by 2030
North Carolina is on pace to become the seventh largest state in the country in the next decade, as the state's population will reach 11.7 million by 2030, new projections show. Why it matters: That level of growth would gain North Carolina yet another congressional seat, and put it ahead of Georgia and Ohio in population size, state demographer Michael Cline said in an analysis released by the Office of State Budget and Management last month. Driving the news: Cline also projected that North Carolina's population would grow by some 4.3 million — the size of the Triangle and Triad's populations combined — in the next 35 years, reaching 15.4 million by 2060. The big picture: Most of North Carolina's growth within the last decade has come from the number of transplants moving into the state. Close to half — 47% — of the state's population was born outside North Carolina, according to the 2023 American Community Survey. That number will only grow in the coming years, as will the number of foreign born residents, which was 9% in the census' 2023 estimate. The state is also projected to become significantly more diverse as it grows. North Carolina's minorities could represent close to half of the state, at 48%, by 2060 — up from 39% in 2020. Zoom in: North Carolina is expected to become significantly more urban by 2030, with Wake County's population projected to grow by close to 10%. Johnston County is projected to grow by 13.4%, and Lee and Harnett are expected to grow so much that they will no longer be classified as rural, according to the analysis. Many rural counties are expected to see continuing population declines, however. Between the lines: North Carolina's growing urban areas and suburbs have long kept afloat Democrats' hopes that the state would someday turn from purple to blue, but the 2024 election, in which cities across the country shifted red, has poked a hole in that theory. The intrigue: Thanks in part to a decline in the state's birth rate, 1 in 5 North Carolinians will be 65 or older by 2030, according to the report. And soon enough, North Carolina will have more older adults (65 and up) than children.
