NC on pace to pass Ohio, Georgia, official says
TRIAD — All of the recent trends in North Carolina's rapid population growth are expected to continue so that within five years North Carolina will jump from ninth-largest to seventh even as birth rates decline and the average age keeps going up, the state demographer reports.
The U.S. Census Bureau's updated population estimate in December said that North Carolina's population had passed 11 million, and State Demographer Michael Cline estimated in his report '7 Trends Ahead' that by 2030 it will reach 11.7 million, which probably will be more than the populations of Ohio and Georgia, currently the seventh- and eighth-largest states.
The state's population growth has accelerated since the 1970s as the state began to attract more and more in-migration from other places even though birth rates here were declining. People moving into North Carolina now account for more than 90% of the state's growth, and in the 2030s it will account for all of the growth as deaths begin to outnumber births, Cline wrote.
'This means eventually more North Carolinians will be born outside the state than those born within it,' he wrote. 'According to the 2023 American Community Survey, approximately 47% of North Carolina's population was born outside of North Carolina — including nine% who were born outside of the United States.'
With the growing influx from other places, the proportion of people of Hispanic and Asian descent has grown, and that is expected to continue, he said.
And while Cline expects the number of young children in the state to rise, he wrote that the older population will grow more.
'By the end of this decade, 1 of every 5 North Carolinians will be at least 65 years old and by the early part of next decade, there will be more older adults (age 65+) than children (ages 0 through 17) in North Carolina,' he wrote.
Population growth has been concentrated in the state's 22 urban and suburban counties, which account for about two-thirds of the state's population, he said. By 2030, the urban and suburban population will rise to 69% of the total, and by 2060 it is projected to be 77%.
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