Latest news with #MichaelEvery
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Business Standard
2 hours ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Analysts see crude at $150 on panic buying if Israel-Iran tensions escalate
Brent crude oil prices can hit $150 a barrel (bbl) – up a massive 103 per cent from the current levels – in the worst-case scenario if Israel–Iran geopolitical tensions escalate, suggest analysts. However, if the conflict stays contained, then energy markets will re-adjust quickly. Israeli airstrikes on Iran last week had impacted energy prices with crude and natural gas prices surging as it reignited concerns about a wider conflict in West Asia. Brent crude oil prices hit $78.5/bbl in the wake of the airstrikes before dropping back to around $75/bbl. TTF (Title Transfer Facility) gas prices – a virtual trading point for natural gas in the Netherlands – surged over 5 per cent to €38.24/MWh last week in the backdrop of the developments. The attacks, according to analysts at Rabobank International, expose the wider risks to crude and natural gas supplies from the region despite the initial quick reversal of price gains for both markets. If crude, refined products and/or liquid natural gas (LNG) supplies from key producers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are curtailed through direct attacks on energy infrastructure or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil price spikes could break and sustain above the $120/bbl mark, they said. 'In case Saudi oil, gas, shipping, or refining infrastructure are targeted and destroyed, crude prices would rise above $120/bbl, even as far as $150/bbl on the initial panic buying," wrote Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank International in a co-authored note with Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit. Crude oil price spike Iran, meanwhile, has claimed dominion over the Strait of Hormuz, which is a major chokepoint central to the global energy market. The Strait is a transit point for 17 per cent of world oil flows (about 17 million barrels per day) and convoys of tankers from Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. Qatar, Oman and the UAE operate around 98 million tons of LNG export capacity, about 18 per cent of the world's LNG supply, with most of these volumes also transiting through the Strait, reports suggest. 'Another 10 per cent rise in oil is possible due to ongoing war. Post that, it may cool off if conflict moderates due to international pressures. In case war intensifies and goes on for few months, then oil price may hit $100/bbl,' said G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research. The threat of around 1.5m barrels per day (b/d) of Russian supply going dark through sanctions during the initial stages of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia had sent Brent prices to $139/bbl three years ago, but only for about a week, and prices stayed above $100/bbl for only five months, data shows. According to Platts OPEC Survey, Iran pumped 3.25 million b/d of crude in May, with roughly 2.2 million b/d of refining capacity and 600,000 b/d of condensate splitting capacity. However, exports dipped below 1.5 million b/d in May as floating storage levels surged amid rising tensions. 'If Iranian crude exports are now disrupted, Chinese refiners, the sole buyers of Iranian barrels—would need to seek alternative grades from other Middle Eastern countries and Russian crudes. This could also boost freight rates and tanker insurance premiums, narrow the Brent-Dubai spread, and hurt refinery margins, particularly in Asia,' cautions Richard Joswick, head of near-term oil analysis at S&P Global Commodity Insights.
AU Financial Review
2 days ago
- Business
- AU Financial Review
Your super fund isn't ready for the world's biggest trade
It's tempting to dismiss the White House's decision to review the $386 billion AUKUS pact as a political story. But the implications for Australia's economy and the nation's investors could be seismic. Rabobank global strategist Michael Every says the review could mean 'the D for Decision Day I have long warned of may finally loom Down Under after years of have-your-cake-and-eat-it-ism. At the very least, the US seems to be insisting that Canberra pledges to use any US subs against China in a potential war over Taiwan. Do that and maybe Australia can keep AUKUS – yet they will likely pay a high price elsewhere, including on trade.
ABC News
12-05-2025
- Business
- ABC News
Trump can't back down on China trade war, says Rabobank's Global Strategist
Rabobank's global strategist Michael Every says Donald Trump won't abandon his geopolitical strategy against China, otherwise the favourable trade deals he's trying to achieve with other nations 'crumbles to nothing'.
Al Arabiya
01-05-2025
- Business
- Al Arabiya
Ukraine international bonds rally after Kyiv and Washington sign minerals deal
Ukraine's international debt rallied more than 2 cents on Thursday after Kyiv and Washington signed a deal that will give the United States preferential access to new minerals in the country and fund investment reconstruction. The 2036 bond gained 2.2 cents in the dollar to be bid at 51.677 cents, Tradeweb data showed, while the GDP-linked warrants added 2.1 cents to 72.40 cents. Many of the instruments enjoyed their biggest gains since mid-April, but were still trading in deeply distressed territory. For the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war, visit our dedicated page. The two countries signed the accord in Washington on Wednesday after months of sometimes fraught negotiations. The deal establishes a joint investment fund for Ukraine's reconstruction as US President Donald Trump tries to secure a peace settlement in Russia's three-year-old war in Ukraine. 'Kyiv hopes the US may also increase defense aid, which would be useful given Europe and the UK just admitted they can't find enough troops for the peacekeeping contribution they'll have to make,' said Michael Every, senior market strategist at Rabobank.
