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New York Post
6 days ago
- Politics
- New York Post
Why Putin thinks he can win in Ukraine despite huge Russian death toll
Putin is under pressure to agree to a ceasefire. Few leaders would continue to pursue a war that has cost around a million casualties and where outright victory looks impossible. But while he might agree to an end to the exchange of drone barrages, which are causing huge damage to Russian oil and gas facilities, the bloody ground war is likely to continue. While Russia may be suffering a thousand casualties a day, the grim mathematics involved means that Putin can take those losses and see the result as a win, because no amount of human suffering weighs in his calculus. Advertisement Russia is advancing, but at a slow rate and huge cost. In June, Russia gained about 190 square miles or less than 0.1% of Ukrainian territory. As Michael Kofman recently noted after a trip to Ukraine, mass attacks with armored vehicles are vanishingly rare. Pervasive drone surveillance means any movement is spotted miles before it reaches the front line, and a mass of First Person View drones hits any assault group long before it gets within sight of Ukrainian forces. Instead, attacks are a matter of trying to infiltrate the lightly held Ukrainian lines. Russian forces advance stealthily or rapidly on foot, trying to get through the barrage of FPV drones. Advertisement 'Russian attacks are sometimes in 4-6-man groups, but in many cases have decreased to numerous 2-3-man sections trying to penetrate in between Ukrainian positions,' Kaufman notes. 'Russian infantry seeks to advance as far as possible past Ukraine's initial line and entrench there. Although many may be lost, some get through and entrench, awaiting reinforcements. Much the same can be said of motorcycle and buggy assaults. . . . Most fail, but not all, leading to small tactical advances.' Losses are high and successes rare. But if commanders throw enough troops against a line for long enough, they eventually push it back. Some reports suggest that the casualties are a point of pride among Russian commanders, who boast about the number of troops they lost to gain a position — ''I killed five Storm units to take this village' is a typical attitude, according to Russian bloggers translated by Chris_O. Advertisement Casualty rates of 80% or more among assault units are reportedly commonplace, with injured survivors rounded up and forced to join the next wave — even on crutches. Technical specialists and other troops are drafted into assault units. The entire crew of Russia's only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, was sent ashore, reorganized as a naval infantry unit, and deployed to the Pokrovsk sector in 2024. Ukrainian casualties are unknown but likely very much lighter. Defending forces typically only lose a fraction as many as attackers. And very few Ukrainian soldiers now have contact with the enemy as drones take on more and more of the fighting. But as long as Russia's war machine gets a supply of fresh bodies, it can continue to advance. Advertisement According to the Institute for the Study of War, in 2024, each square mile cost around 150 Russian casualties. By mid-2025, Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Pavlo Palisa gave a figure of 432 casualties per square mile. It is expensive territory, but Putin wants to buy it because he can. Casualties on this scale might be unthinkable to Western nations, but in Russia, few people seem troubled by the scale of losses, as far as they are aware of them. 'Many people are actually not aware of the nature and scale of casualties,' Samuel Bendett, an expert on the Russian scene and advisor to the CNAS and CSIS think tanks, told me. 'And the official propaganda and all manner of social media tools such as pro-Kremlin Telegram channels state that sacrifices are necessary.' Russia takes great pride in the many giant cemeteries honoring the over 20 million Soviet dead lost in WWII, known as the Great Patriotic War. War in Russia is all about sacrifice for the Motherland, the individual dying and achieving glory for the greater good. Putin made this exact point in a televised meeting with the mother of a dead soldier in 2022. 'Some people die in road accidents, others from alcohol — when they die, it's unclear how. But your son lived, do you understand? He fulfilled his purpose,' Putin told the mother. Advertisement One of the main reasons there is no public outcry is that the men dying are not young conscripts (known as 'Mobiks') but contract soldiers ('Kontraktniki') who sign up voluntarily for a fixed duration. The Mobiks, perhaps 25% of the army, are kept well back, Kontraktniki go to the front. The amounts of money on offer are, to Russians, staggering. One region offers a million rubles (about $12,000), while the national government adds another 400,000 (about $5,000) to new soldiers. In some of the poorer Russian regions like the Caucasus, the average monthly is just 35,000 rubles ($400). Signing on the army is like winning a game show — you get several years' salary in one lump and are seen as a sort of patriotic hero. And if the recruit is killed, their families get a lavish payout, at least in theory. 'Many underprivileged men see it as an opportunity to earn money and do something really great in their generally miserable life,' notes analyst Kirill Shamiev in a detailed Twitter thread on public opinion in Russia. Advertisement Recruits typically come from deprived areas, and as Russia's economy disintegrates in slow motion, the bonanza offered by the army looks increasingly appealing. Because Russia is not seeking high quality troops, they will take anyone. An RBC report from the city of Mordovia describes how the recruiters visit homeless shelters looking for recruits, regardless of their mental condition or whether they are drug addicts or alcoholics: 'People who show at least minimal interest are immediately offered to sign a contract for military service.' In the early years of the war, Russia had thousands of convicts who were recruited directly from prisons under a special program, and mercenaries like the Wagner group, both of which took disproportionate casualties because they were expendable without affecting public opinion. While these sources have dried up, Russia can now also count on North Korean troops, who again are thrown into the most intense combat and suffer a high rate of casualties. Advertisement But most of those that are being fed into the meat grinder are Kontraktniki, and Russia is recruiting them, and losing them, at a rate of around 30,000 a month. A country of 140 million can sustain losses at this rate for a considerable period. And as long as they are seen as patriotic volunteers dying for a cause — 'fulfilling their purpose' as Putin has it — there is no public outcry. From Putin's point of view, this slow, grinding advance is a winning strategy. He is gaining territory and counting on Ukraine facing a political crisis in the coming months. If a future ceasefire freezes the existing situation on the ground, every day of fighting is a day of progress. Advertisement Several things could change this: accelerating economic collapse, more military aid to Ukraine, or a successful Ukrainian offensive. Without these, expect the bloodshed to continue. Reprinted with permission from Forbes.
Yahoo
08-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
US expects Russia's retaliation for Operation Spiderweb to continue soon
The U.S. believes Russia has not yet fully responded to Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb and may soon launch another large-scale, multi-pronged strike following the massive June 6 attack, Reuters reported on June 8, citing unnamed U.S. officials. One official told Reuters that, while the timing remains unclear, a retaliatory strike could be expected in the coming days and is likely to be "asymmetrical." Another U.S. source said Russia would likely employ missiles and drones to hit a combination of targets. The U.S. assessment follows the June 1 attack by Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) on four Russian air bases using drones launched from trucks concealed within Russian territory. Kyiv's operation reportedly damaged 41 aircraft, including Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers — two of Russia's primary platforms for missile attacks against Ukraine. The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify the number of aircraft hit. At least 21 planes were damaged or destroyed, according to open-source intelligence analysts. A Western diplomatic source told the outlet that the Kremlin's response could focus on high-value government sites, such as administrative buildings or intelligence facilities. Michael Kofman, a military analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, suggested Moscow may aim medium-range ballistic missiles at headquarters belonging to the SBU, which organized the operation. Join our community Support independent journalism in Ukraine. Join us in this fight. Support Us On June 6, Russia launched one of its most intense aerial barrages of the full-scale war, firing 452 drones and 45 missiles at Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, according to the Air Force. The attack was likely part of Russia's response to Operation Spiderweb. At least four civilians were killed, including emergency service workers, and 80 others were injured in the overnight assault, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported. The June 6 strikes followed a phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump on June 4, during which Putin reportedly vowed to retaliate against the Ukrainian drone operation. U.S. officials say Moscow's June 6 barrage may not be the full extent of its response. Russia has carried out near-nightly air assaults in recent weeks, several of which predated Spiderweb, making it difficult to separate a targeted reprisal from Russia's ongoing campaign of attrition. Shortly after the June 6 Russian attack, Trump seemed to justify the aggression against Ukrainian cities that was launched in response to Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb. "They gave Putin a reason to go in and bomb the hell out of them last night," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on June 6. Read also: Ukrainian drone strikes Russian Tu-22 bomber: SBU releases new footage of Operation Spiderweb We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Yahoo
08-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Russian retaliation for Ukraine's Operation Spider's Web yet to come, US officials say
The United States believes Moscow is preparing a significant retaliation for Ukraine's Operation Spider's Web, which destroyed or damaged dozens of Russian strategic aircraft at their home bases. Source: Reuters, as reported by European Pravda Details: US officials, speaking anonymously to Reuters, said Russia's "retaliation" for the Security Service of Ukraine-led operation is still forthcoming, despite Moscow claiming Friday's large-scale air attack as a response. One official noted the timing of a potential strike is uncertain but could occur "within days" and be "asymmetrical", differing from Ukraine's operation. Another suggested it would likely involve a combined air attack using various weapons. A Western diplomatic source indicated that, while Russia's response may have begun with recent strikes, an escalation targeting symbolic Ukrainian sites, such as government buildings, is expected. Michael Kofman, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, commented that Russia's capacity for significant escalation is limited, given its current military commitments in Ukraine. Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!
The Guardian
08-06-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Ukraine war briefing: Putin yet to retaliate in full force over Operation Spiderweb, officials say
Vladimir Putin's threatened retaliation against Ukraine over its drone attack on Russia's bomber fleet has not happened yet in earnest, despite heavy bombardment of Kharkiv and Kyiv the past two days, and is likely to be a significant, multi-pronged strike soon, US officials have told Reuters. One senior western diplomat anticipated a 'huge, vicious and unrelenting' assault by Moscow. Michael Kofman, a Russia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Russia might seek to punish Ukraine's SBU domestic security agency which orchestrated last weekend's assault, possibly employing intermediate-range ballistic missiles, as well as targeting defence manufacturing sites. Still, Kofman suggested Russia's options for retaliation may be limited, as it was already throwing a lot of its military might at Ukraine. 'In general, Russia's ability to substantially escalate strikes from what they are already doing – and attempting to do over the past month – is quite constrained.' The Ukrainian drone attack – called Operation Spiderweb – likely damaged about 10% of Russia's strategic bomber fleet and hit some of the aircraft as they were being prepared for strikes on Ukraine, according to a German military assessment. Maj Gen Christian Freuding told a YouTube podcast that 'more than a dozen aircraft were damaged, TU-95 and TU-22 strategic bombers as well as A-50 surveillance planes'. He said 'only a handful' of the A-50s exist and can now no longer be used for spare parts. Despite the losses, Freuding did not see any immediate reduction of Russian strikes against Ukraine, noting that Moscow retained 90% of its strategic bombers, which can launch ballistic and cruise missiles in addition to dropping bombs. 'But there is, of course, an indirect effect as the remaining planes will need to fly more sorties, meaning they will be worn out faster, and, most importantly, there is a huge psychological impact.' Freuding said Russia had felt safe in its vast territory, which also explained why there was little protection for the aircraft. 'After this successful operation, this no longer holds true. Russia will need to ramp up the security measures.' Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of thwarting a large-scale prisoner exchange that was agreed in the last week, with Kyiv denying Russian allegations that it had indefinitely the postponed prisoner swaps while accusing Moscow of 'playing dirty games'. At talks in Istanbul on Monday, Kyiv and Moscow agreed to release more than 1,000 people on each side, while Russia said it would also hand back the remains of 6,000 killed Ukrainian soldiers. Russia's defence ministry said in a statement: 'The Russian side has provided the Ukrainian side with a list of 640 names, but the Ukrainian side is currently refraining from setting a date for the return of these individuals and the transfer of the corresponding number of Russian prisoners of war.' Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War said no date had been agreed for the return of bodies and that a list of names Russia said would be released did not match the terms of the agreement. Andriy Kovalenko, an official with Ukraine's national security and defence council, said 'statements by the Russian side do not correspond to reality'.
Sydney Morning Herald
20-05-2025
- Politics
- Sydney Morning Herald
Russia beefs up forces near Finland's border
From Moscow's perspective, the Russians need to bolster their defences to protect themselves from NATO expansion, which has always been a sore subject. The Baltic nations were the first members of the former Soviet Union to join NATO, bringing large stretches of Russia's border up against NATO's. The prospect of Ukraine, an even bigger former Soviet republic, following suit was so threatening to Moscow that it became one of the causes of the most devastating land war in generations. 'The Russian military has undergone a significant force expansion,' said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. 'After the war, the ground force will probably end up larger than before 2022. Looking at the planned restructuring of military districts, it seems clear that they're going to prioritise areas facing NATO.' NATO officials agree. Whenever the war in Ukraine ends, a senior NATO official said, Russia would redeploy troops farther and farther to the north. Russia believes that the Arctic and access to the Arctic are key to great power status, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. According to satellite imagery, Russian helicopters returned to a base near Murmansk, a port city in the Arctic Circle, after they had not been there for two decades. As Ukrainian drones target airfields across Russia, Russian command has moved assets north to get out of range. This has put them much closer to NATO territory. Dozens of Russian warplanes were recently spotted at the Olenya air base, also in the Arctic and fewer than 100 miles from the Finnish border, according to the satellite imagery. Other recent activity includes more than 100 new tents that appeared about a year ago at Kamenka, a Russian base fewer than 40 miles from Finland. 'They are expanding their brigades into divisions, which means that the units near our borders will grow significantly – by thousands,' said Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst with the Black Bird Group, a Finnish organisation that analyses the military developments in the north and in Ukraine. Loading Kastehelmi, who analysed dozens of recent images for The New York Times, said that the next few years could bring massive changes to the Finnish frontier, depending on how and when the war in Ukraine ends. At Alakurtti, which is also close to Finland, and Petrozavodsk, a little farther away, the Russians have new buildings that can house at least dozens of vehicles. Activity has also increased elsewhere. New tents and military equipment recently appeared at a base about 80 miles from Estonia. The Finns have an old expression: Russia is never as strong as it looks and never as weak as it looks. So, Finnish defence leaders have been characteristically matter-of-fact about the build-up.
