Latest news with #MichaelKofman
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
US expects Russia's retaliation for Operation Spiderweb to continue soon
The U.S. believes Russia has not yet fully responded to Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb and may soon launch another large-scale, multi-pronged strike following the massive June 6 attack, Reuters reported on June 8, citing unnamed U.S. officials. One official told Reuters that, while the timing remains unclear, a retaliatory strike could be expected in the coming days and is likely to be "asymmetrical." Another U.S. source said Russia would likely employ missiles and drones to hit a combination of targets. The U.S. assessment follows the June 1 attack by Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) on four Russian air bases using drones launched from trucks concealed within Russian territory. Kyiv's operation reportedly damaged 41 aircraft, including Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers — two of Russia's primary platforms for missile attacks against Ukraine. The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify the number of aircraft hit. At least 21 planes were damaged or destroyed, according to open-source intelligence analysts. A Western diplomatic source told the outlet that the Kremlin's response could focus on high-value government sites, such as administrative buildings or intelligence facilities. Michael Kofman, a military analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, suggested Moscow may aim medium-range ballistic missiles at headquarters belonging to the SBU, which organized the operation. Join our community Support independent journalism in Ukraine. Join us in this fight. Support Us On June 6, Russia launched one of its most intense aerial barrages of the full-scale war, firing 452 drones and 45 missiles at Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, according to the Air Force. The attack was likely part of Russia's response to Operation Spiderweb. At least four civilians were killed, including emergency service workers, and 80 others were injured in the overnight assault, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported. The June 6 strikes followed a phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump on June 4, during which Putin reportedly vowed to retaliate against the Ukrainian drone operation. U.S. officials say Moscow's June 6 barrage may not be the full extent of its response. Russia has carried out near-nightly air assaults in recent weeks, several of which predated Spiderweb, making it difficult to separate a targeted reprisal from Russia's ongoing campaign of attrition. Shortly after the June 6 Russian attack, Trump seemed to justify the aggression against Ukrainian cities that was launched in response to Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb. "They gave Putin a reason to go in and bomb the hell out of them last night," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on June 6. Read also: Ukrainian drone strikes Russian Tu-22 bomber: SBU releases new footage of Operation Spiderweb We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Russian retaliation for Ukraine's Operation Spider's Web yet to come, US officials say
The United States believes Moscow is preparing a significant retaliation for Ukraine's Operation Spider's Web, which destroyed or damaged dozens of Russian strategic aircraft at their home bases. Source: Reuters, as reported by European Pravda Details: US officials, speaking anonymously to Reuters, said Russia's "retaliation" for the Security Service of Ukraine-led operation is still forthcoming, despite Moscow claiming Friday's large-scale air attack as a response. One official noted the timing of a potential strike is uncertain but could occur "within days" and be "asymmetrical", differing from Ukraine's operation. Another suggested it would likely involve a combined air attack using various weapons. A Western diplomatic source indicated that, while Russia's response may have begun with recent strikes, an escalation targeting symbolic Ukrainian sites, such as government buildings, is expected. Michael Kofman, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, commented that Russia's capacity for significant escalation is limited, given its current military commitments in Ukraine. Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!
The Guardian
2 days ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
Ukraine war briefing: Putin yet to retaliate in full force over Operation Spiderweb, officials say
Vladimir Putin's threatened retaliation against Ukraine over its drone attack on Russia's bomber fleet has not happened yet in earnest, despite heavy bombardment of Kharkiv and Kyiv the past two days, and is likely to be a significant, multi-pronged strike soon, US officials have told Reuters. One senior western diplomat anticipated a 'huge, vicious and unrelenting' assault by Moscow. Michael Kofman, a Russia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Russia might seek to punish Ukraine's SBU domestic security agency which orchestrated last weekend's assault, possibly employing intermediate-range ballistic missiles, as well as targeting defence manufacturing sites. Still, Kofman suggested Russia's options for retaliation may be limited, as it was already throwing a lot of its military might at Ukraine. 'In general, Russia's ability to substantially escalate strikes from what they are already doing – and attempting to do over the past month – is quite constrained.' The Ukrainian drone attack – called Operation Spiderweb – likely damaged about 10% of Russia's strategic bomber fleet and hit some of the aircraft as they were being prepared for strikes on Ukraine, according to a German military assessment. Maj Gen Christian Freuding told a YouTube podcast that 'more than a dozen aircraft were damaged, TU-95 and TU-22 strategic bombers as well as A-50 surveillance planes'. He said 'only a handful' of the A-50s exist and can now no longer be used for spare parts. Despite the losses, Freuding did not see any immediate reduction of Russian strikes against Ukraine, noting that Moscow retained 90% of its strategic bombers, which can launch ballistic and cruise missiles in addition to dropping bombs. 'But there is, of course, an indirect effect as the remaining planes will need to fly more sorties, meaning they will be worn out faster, and, most importantly, there is a huge psychological impact.' Freuding said Russia had felt safe in its vast territory, which also explained why there was little protection for the aircraft. 'After this successful operation, this no longer holds true. Russia will need to ramp up the security measures.' Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of thwarting a large-scale prisoner exchange that was agreed in the last week, with Kyiv denying Russian allegations that it had indefinitely the postponed prisoner swaps while accusing Moscow of 'playing dirty games'. At talks in Istanbul on Monday, Kyiv and Moscow agreed to release more than 1,000 people on each side, while Russia said it would also hand back the remains of 6,000 killed Ukrainian soldiers. Russia's defence ministry said in a statement: 'The Russian side has provided the Ukrainian side with a list of 640 names, but the Ukrainian side is currently refraining from setting a date for the return of these individuals and the transfer of the corresponding number of Russian prisoners of war.' Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War said no date had been agreed for the return of bodies and that a list of names Russia said would be released did not match the terms of the agreement. Andriy Kovalenko, an official with Ukraine's national security and defence council, said 'statements by the Russian side do not correspond to reality'.
Sydney Morning Herald
20-05-2025
- Politics
- Sydney Morning Herald
Russia beefs up forces near Finland's border
From Moscow's perspective, the Russians need to bolster their defences to protect themselves from NATO expansion, which has always been a sore subject. The Baltic nations were the first members of the former Soviet Union to join NATO, bringing large stretches of Russia's border up against NATO's. The prospect of Ukraine, an even bigger former Soviet republic, following suit was so threatening to Moscow that it became one of the causes of the most devastating land war in generations. 'The Russian military has undergone a significant force expansion,' said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. 'After the war, the ground force will probably end up larger than before 2022. Looking at the planned restructuring of military districts, it seems clear that they're going to prioritise areas facing NATO.' NATO officials agree. Whenever the war in Ukraine ends, a senior NATO official said, Russia would redeploy troops farther and farther to the north. Russia believes that the Arctic and access to the Arctic are key to great power status, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. According to satellite imagery, Russian helicopters returned to a base near Murmansk, a port city in the Arctic Circle, after they had not been there for two decades. As Ukrainian drones target airfields across Russia, Russian command has moved assets north to get out of range. This has put them much closer to NATO territory. Dozens of Russian warplanes were recently spotted at the Olenya air base, also in the Arctic and fewer than 100 miles from the Finnish border, according to the satellite imagery. Other recent activity includes more than 100 new tents that appeared about a year ago at Kamenka, a Russian base fewer than 40 miles from Finland. 'They are expanding their brigades into divisions, which means that the units near our borders will grow significantly – by thousands,' said Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst with the Black Bird Group, a Finnish organisation that analyses the military developments in the north and in Ukraine. Loading Kastehelmi, who analysed dozens of recent images for The New York Times, said that the next few years could bring massive changes to the Finnish frontier, depending on how and when the war in Ukraine ends. At Alakurtti, which is also close to Finland, and Petrozavodsk, a little farther away, the Russians have new buildings that can house at least dozens of vehicles. Activity has also increased elsewhere. New tents and military equipment recently appeared at a base about 80 miles from Estonia. The Finns have an old expression: Russia is never as strong as it looks and never as weak as it looks. So, Finnish defence leaders have been characteristically matter-of-fact about the build-up.
The Age
20-05-2025
- Politics
- The Age
Russia beefs up forces near Finland's border
From Moscow's perspective, the Russians need to bolster their defences to protect themselves from NATO expansion, which has always been a sore subject. The Baltic nations were the first members of the former Soviet Union to join NATO, bringing large stretches of Russia's border up against NATO's. The prospect of Ukraine, an even bigger former Soviet republic, following suit was so threatening to Moscow that it became one of the causes of the most devastating land war in generations. 'The Russian military has undergone a significant force expansion,' said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. 'After the war, the ground force will probably end up larger than before 2022. Looking at the planned restructuring of military districts, it seems clear that they're going to prioritise areas facing NATO.' NATO officials agree. Whenever the war in Ukraine ends, a senior NATO official said, Russia would redeploy troops farther and farther to the north. Russia believes that the Arctic and access to the Arctic are key to great power status, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. According to satellite imagery, Russian helicopters returned to a base near Murmansk, a port city in the Arctic Circle, after they had not been there for two decades. As Ukrainian drones target airfields across Russia, Russian command has moved assets north to get out of range. This has put them much closer to NATO territory. Dozens of Russian warplanes were recently spotted at the Olenya air base, also in the Arctic and fewer than 100 miles from the Finnish border, according to the satellite imagery. Other recent activity includes more than 100 new tents that appeared about a year ago at Kamenka, a Russian base fewer than 40 miles from Finland. 'They are expanding their brigades into divisions, which means that the units near our borders will grow significantly – by thousands,' said Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst with the Black Bird Group, a Finnish organisation that analyses the military developments in the north and in Ukraine. Loading Kastehelmi, who analysed dozens of recent images for The New York Times, said that the next few years could bring massive changes to the Finnish frontier, depending on how and when the war in Ukraine ends. At Alakurtti, which is also close to Finland, and Petrozavodsk, a little farther away, the Russians have new buildings that can house at least dozens of vehicles. Activity has also increased elsewhere. New tents and military equipment recently appeared at a base about 80 miles from Estonia. The Finns have an old expression: Russia is never as strong as it looks and never as weak as it looks. So, Finnish defence leaders have been characteristically matter-of-fact about the build-up.
