Latest news with #MichaelKugelman
South China Morning Post
25-05-2025
- Politics
- South China Morning Post
As fighting stops, India-Pakistan start narrative war to sway global opinion over conflict
Two weeks after pulling back from the brink of all-out war, India and Pakistan are now racing to win over global opinion. Both sides are sending delegations to global capitals to influence international perception of the conflict, as tensions between the nuclear-armed rivals continue to simmer. New Delhi this week dispatched seven teams of diplomats and lawmakers to capitals of some 30 countries, including in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Africa and South America as part of its publicity campaign. The delegates have been told to detail Islamabad's history of supporting militants, and its alleged involvement in the deadly April 22 attack in the India-administered part of Kashmir, which triggered the latest conflict. India is also pushing back against the perception – reinforced by US President Donald Trump's social media posts – that the two sides were equals in their dispute over the territory of Kashmir , and that they had agreed to mediated peace talks. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday ruled out talks with Pakistan and vowed military action if faced with further terrorist attacks. Separately, India's foreign minister told Dutch broadcaster NOS that the May 10 truce was negotiated directly between India and Pakistan, refuting Trump's claim of brokering the ceasefire. 'For many Indians, Trump's messaging on mediation amounts to drawing a false equivalence by treating India and Pakistan the same,' said Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst based in Washington. 'This is a major setback for New Delhi, given that it amounts to a victory for Islamabad in the battle of narratives that has endured even after the fighting stopped.'
India.com
18-05-2025
- Politics
- India.com
‘Unreliable Ally': US Actions Push India Closer to ‘No-Drama' Partners Russia, France?
US foreign policy expert Michael Kugelman recently highlighted contrasting dynamics in India's bilateral relationships with key global players. Drawing from past incidents and diplomatic developments, he pointed to multiple moments over the past two decades that have tested Indian public perception of the United States as a strategic partner. While India maintains steady and long-standing relationships with countries such as Russia and France, ties with the US have at times encountered turbulence. Kugelman referred to this difference by describing India's interactions with Russia and France as 'no-drama', in contrast to more complex and occasionally strained episodes with Washington. There've been times over the last 2 decades when in India, public trust in US as a partner is called into question & contrasted w/India's reliable, no-drama relationships w/Russia, France etc. Khobragade affair, late US response to India COVID crisis, Pannun. And right now. — Michael Kugelman (@MichaelKugelman) May 15, 2025 In each case, these moments have been smoothed over on policy levels. But public perceptions of the US and its reliability as evinced by some key Indian constituencies continues to be an issue that flares up periodically. Properly addressing this remains a work in progress. — Michael Kugelman (@MichaelKugelman) May 15, 2025 He cited a few examples – the 2013 'Khobragade affair', in which Devyani Khobragade, then India's deputy consul general in New York, was arrested on charges related to visa fraud. The incident had led to a diplomatic standoff and public outcry in India. Another reference was made to the COVID-19 pandemic, during which the US response to India's health crisis drew criticism for its perceived delay. More recently, the 'Pannun case' – a reported plot to assassinate Khalistani leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, allegedly involving Indian agents – resurfaced concerns about bilateral trust. The US responded with a diplomatic warning to India, while authorities in India stated that they were reviewing the shared intelligence. Kugelman's comments also came in the backdrop of recent claims about former US President Donald Trump's involvement in India-Pakistan relations. According to reports, Trump intervened during a cross-border escalation between India and Pakistan, using trade-related pressure to influence India's response. While a ceasefire was eventually agreed upon, his public assertion of credit reignited discussions about the consistency and reliability of the US as a strategic partner. Other analysts also weighed in. Strategic affairs expert Brahma Chellaney said the episode highlights broader concerns about strategic alignment. Meanwhile, former Pentagon official Michael Rubin said that Trump's comments may have economic repercussions, particularly for US defense firms eyeing India as a key market. These developments together add to the ongoing discourse about India's approach to global partnerships, particularly in terms of trust, predictability and long-term cooperation.
News18
16-05-2025
- Business
- News18
"Trump's Trade Comments Have Complicated US- India Relations" India Pakistan War News
Last Updated: World Tensions between India and Pakistan are at a low point despite a recent ceasefire. U.S. President Trump's comments on trade and the situation have complicated U.S.-India relations, prompting concerns over a potential rehyphenation of ties between the two South Asian nations, says Michael Kugelman, South Asia Expert n18oc_world News18 Mobile App -
India Gazette
12-05-2025
- Politics
- India Gazette
"Indian leadership responded by hitting back, projecting strength, confidence" US Foreign Policy expert hails Operation Sindoor
Washington DC [US], May 12 (ANI): Leading American Foreign Policy Expert, Michael Kugelman hailed the response of Indian leadership towards Pakistan as a part of Operation Sindoor. He highlighted how India's response to the crisis displayed strong leadership acumen. Noting how the Pahalgam terror attack was different from the previous crises, Michael Kugelman said, 'This crisis was so different on so many levels. First, the nature of the attack that triggered this crisis... was unusually brutal. The fact that civilians, tourists were targeted, and singled out for their religion for being Hindus. This, I think, had a particular type of traumatic impact on India in ways that we have not seen with previous ones, which I think necessitated the Indian government and certainly much of the Indian public too, a particularly robust retaliation'. He emphasised, 'The intensity of the initial Indian airstrikes in Pakistan were of a magnitude that we have not seen for many decades since the 1971 war. So that's a big difference right there'. Kugelman, while speaking to ANI observed that with the hostilities lasting for a longer period of time than what has been in the case of previous military crises, 'This is another reason why so many capitals around the world, Washington and London and the EU and, and various capitals in the Middle East, were so concerned about the direction of this crisis.' He also noted the difference of leadership between India and Pakistan during the tensions, Kugelman lauded India's response. He said, 'If you look at the last few crises between India and Pakistan- 2016, 2019, and now this recent one, it's the same government in India- the Modi Government, and the leadership has responded in similar ways- hitting back, projecting strengths, confidence, defiance, and so on.' Kugelman said that the results shown by the Indian government deliver the important message of India achieving its tactical and strategic goals to protect itself from threat. Operation Sindoor was launched on May 7 to strike multiple terror sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied-Kashmir after a deadly attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam last month in which 26 tourists were killed. In a joint press conference held at the National Media Centre on Sunday, the senior-most operational commanders from all three wings of the Indian Armed Forces revealed major outcomes of India's Operation Sindoor. In addition to eliminating over 100 terrorists, the strikes destroyed 11 air bases inside Pakistan and inflicted significant damage on their military capabilities. The air, land and sea operations were carried out with calibrated restraint, with an emphasis on minimising civilian casualties. Air Marshal AK Bharti on Sunday emphasised the country's military capabilities, stating that India has the ability to target every system at Pakistan's bases. Air Marshal AK Bharti on Sunday said Operation Sindoor effectively destroyed terror camps, achieving its objectives with precision. He stressed that the operations' impact is evident to the world. Air Marshal Bharti said, 'Have we achieved our objectives of decimating the terrorist camps, and the answer is a thumping Yes and the results are for the whole world to see.' During the briefing, Vice Admiral AN Pramod issued a clear warning to Pakistan stating, 'This time, if Pakistan dare take any action, Pakistan knows what we are going to do, that's all'. (ANI)
Zawya
12-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
India's diplomatic ambitions tested as Trump pushes for deal on Kashmir
NEW DELHI/ISLAMABAD - India and Pakistan have stepped back from the brink of all-out war, with a nudge from the U.S., but New Delhi's aspirations as a global diplomatic power now face a key test after President Donald Trump offered to mediate on the dispute over Kashmir, analysts said. India's rapid rise as the world's fifth-largest economy has boosted its confidence and clout on the world stage, where it has played an important role in addressing regional crises such as Sri Lanka's economic collapse and the Myanmar earthquake. But the conflict with Pakistan over Kashmir, which flared up in recent days with exchanges of missiles drones and air strikes that killed at least 66 people, touches a sensitive nerve in Indian politics. How India threads the diplomatic needle - courting favour with Trump over issues like trade while asserting its own interests in the Kashmir conflict - will depend in large part on domestic politics and could determine the future prospects for conflict in Kashmir. "India ... is likely not keen on the broader talks (that the ceasefire) calls for. Upholding it will pose challenges," said Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst based in Washington. In a sign of just how fragile the truce remains, the two governments accused each other of serious violations late on Saturday. The ceasefire, Kugelman noted, was "cobbled together hastily" when tensions were at their peak. Trump said on Sunday that, following the ceasefire, "I am going to increase trade, substantially, with both of these great nations". Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, for his part, has not commented publicly on the conflict since it began. India considers Kashmir an integral part of its territory and not open for negotiation, least of all through a third-party mediator. India and Pakistan both rule the scenic Himalayan region in part, claim it in full, and have fought two wars and numerous other conflicts over what India says is a Pakistan-backed insurgency there. Pakistan denies it backs insurgency. "By agreeing to abort under U.S. persuasion ... just three days of military operations, India is drawing international attention to the Kashmir dispute, not to Pakistan's cross-border terrorism that triggered the crisis," said Brahma Chellaney, an Indian defence analyst. For decades after the two countries separated in 1947, the West largely saw India and Pakistan through the same lens as the neighbours fought regularly over Kashmir. That changed in recent years, partly thanks to India's economic rise while Pakistan languished with an economy less than one-10th India's size. But Trump's proposal to work towards a solution to the Kashmir problem, along with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's declaration that India and Pakistan would start talks on their broader issues at a neutral site, has irked many Indians. Pakistan has repeatedly thanked Trump for his offer on Kashmir, while India has not acknowledged any role played by a third party in the ceasefire, saying it was agreed by the two sides themselves. Analysts and Indian opposition parties are already questioning whether New Delhi met its strategic objectives by launching missiles into Pakistan on Wednesday last week, which it said were in retaliation for an attack last month on tourists in Kashmir that killed 26 men. It blamed the attack on Pakistan - a charge that Islamabad denied. By launching missiles deep into Pakistan, Modi showed a much higher appetite for risk than his predecessors. But the sudden ceasefire exposed him to rare criticism at home. Swapan Dasgupta, a former lawmaker from Modi's Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, said the ceasefire had not gone down well in India partly because "Trump suddenly appeared out of nowhere and pronounced his verdict". The main opposition Congress party got in on the act, demanding an explanation from the government on the "ceasefire announcements made from Washington, D.C." "Have we opened the doors to third-party mediation?" asked Congress spokesperson Jairam Ramesh. And while the fighting has stopped, there remain a number of flashpoints in the relationship that will test India's resolve and may tempt it to adopt a hard-line stance. The top issue for Pakistan, diplomats and government officials there said, would be the Indus Waters Treaty, which India suspended last month but which is a vital source of water for many of Pakistan's farms and hydropower plants. "Pakistan would not have agreed (to a ceasefire) without U.S. guarantees of a broader dialogue," said Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, a former foreign minister and currently chairman of the People's Party of Pakistan, which supports the government. Moeed Yusuf, former Pakistan National Security Advisor, said a broad agreement would be needed to break the cycle of brinksmanship over Kashmir. "Because the underlying issues remain, and every six months, one year, two years, three years, something like this happens and then you are back at the brink of war in a nuclear environment," he said. (Reporting by Krishna N. Das in New Delhi and Charlotte Greenfield in Islamabad; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
