Latest news with #MichaelLowry
Washington Post
5 hours ago
- Climate
- Washington Post
Pentagon reverses decision to cut off hurricane-tracking satellite data
Days before the Pentagon was set to cut off access to satellite observations that help meteorologists track hurricanes overnight, Defense Department officials told government forecasters they would continue sharing the data, after all. Defense officials initially announced in late June that they would terminate a feed of satellite data, giving meteorologists just a few days of notice. As forecasters raised concerns that any loss of data that helps detect fast-strengthening storms could increase the risks they pose to coastal communities, the Pentagon extended that timeline to July 31. But officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Tuesday they now expect 'no interruption' in the data their meteorologists receive through what is known as the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, which includes microwave-based observations that reveal storm activity even through the cover of darkness. A NOAA statement said the agency expects to continue receiving the data for as long as the aged satellites — which are in the process of being replaced — keep flying. NOAA cited an announcement from the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center reversing the termination. It was not immediately clear why the reversal was made. Navy officials could not immediately be reached for comment. Meteorologists cheered the decision, saying termination of the microwave data could have set back hurricane capabilities. Several decades ago, before such data was available, forecasters ran the risk of what they called a 'sunrise surprise,' when daylight would reveal that a storm had strengthened more than meteorologists had expected. 'Crisis averted,' hurricane expert Michael Lowry, a former National Hurricane Center senior scientist, wrote on the social media platform Bluesky. NOAA officials stressed that, while valuable, the Defense Department's microwave satellite observations represent 'a single dataset in a robust suite of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools.' Meteorologists at the Hurricane Center and National Weather Service also have access to microwave-based observations collected by NOAA's Joint Polar Satellite System. 'NOAA's data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve,' an agency statement said. Microwave is a form of radiation best known for how it interacts with water to heat food. But as microwave radiation also naturally emanates from Earth's surface, scientists can also use it to see where and how water is distributed in the atmosphere — and detect the structure and wind patterns of hurricanes even when they are invisible to the naked eye. Meteorologists have said such microwave data is vital as more hurricanes are undergoing rapid intensification, transforming from modest and disorganized systems into major Category 5 storms within a matter of hours. Global warming, as a result of fossil fuel combustion-based emissions and the greenhouse effect, is giving storms more energy to intensify, studies have shown. The more satellites circling the planet and collecting the microwave observations, the better the chances of detecting such rapid intensification more quickly, scientists said.
Axios
7 hours ago
- Climate
- Axios
NOAA will maintain vital satellite data used for hurricane forecasting
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will maintain long-term access to key Defense Department satellite data used for hurricane forecasting and more, the agency said in a statement Tuesday. Why it matters: The potential loss of the data threw a monkey wrench in forecasting operations just ahead of what's expected to be an above-average hurricane season. Driving the news: "The Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) has announced plans to continue distribution of Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) data beyond July 31, 2025," NOAA said in a statement, referring to a U.S. Navy forecasting unit and a DoD-run weather satellite program. "As a result, there will be no interruption to DMSP data delivery and NOAA will continue to have access to data from DMSP for the duration of the program's life span." News of the extension was earlier reported by meteorologist Michael Lowry, who previously wrote a detailed explanation of the program and its many benefits to forecasters. Catch up quick: The Defense Department shocked the meteorology world in June when it unexpectedly announced that access to the satellite data would be suspended due to undefined cybersecurity issues. The Pentagon later granted a monthlong extension that was set to expire this Thursday, July 31. What they're saying: The about-face "means our hurricane forecast tools should stay intact," Lowry posted Tuesday morning. "Crisis averted." Between the lines: Weather data is vital to both military operations and civilian users. The DMSP has been collecting weather data for U.S. military operations for more than five decades, according to the U.S. Space Force.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Hurricane season warning signs pile up. Brace for a dangerous August.
The hurricane map in the Atlantic Ocean may be nearly blank now, but forecasters say that may not last much longer, as several signs point to an uptick in activity across the basin. "The tropical environment should become more conducive for Atlantic hurricane activity in the next few weeks," said Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach in a July 24 email to USA TODAY. WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry agreed with this prediction, telling USA TODAY that "we're already seeing longer-range forecast models start to perk up... The deep Atlantic tropical waves coming from Africa have been peppier this week, and July 24's long-range forecast models jumped from a generally quiet next 15 days to a much busier look for the first part of August." Has it been a slow start to season? With three named tropical storms (Andrea, Barry and Chantal) so far, the number of storms is actually above average for this time of year. "Currently, we're above-normal for named storms but below normal for all other metrics," Klotzbach said. One of those metrics is Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), a key measurement of the severity of a hurricane season. ACE measures the total wind energy produced by a season of tropical storms and hurricanes. It measures the intensity and duration of storms, and gives a better indication of overall activity than simply counting the number of storms, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. By that measurement, this is the slowest start to an Atlantic season since 2009, as the three storms that formed were all rather weak, though Chantal did cause some deadly flooding in North Carolina. 'Approaching a pivot point' The season is about to heat up, Lowry said, as August is the month when activity usually ramps up. Lowry said that "despite the slow start we're approaching a pivot point in the Atlantic. Hurricanes aren't common in June and July. They happen, of course, but there are usually tall hurdles to overcome to get there." However, he added "that's not the case in August, September, and the first part of October. Those hurdles are a lot shorter so the right window can get you a big hurricane in a hurry," he said. What does the rest of July look like for development in the Atlantic? "Things look pretty quiet overall," Andy Hazelton, a hurricane scientist at the University of Miami, told USA TODAY in an e-mail. "There are some stronger waves starting to show up in the Central Atlantic, but right now, dry and sinking air is making development tough. There's another wave coming off (Africa) that may have a slight chance of development in about a week or so near the Caribbean Islands," he said. A slow July isn't unusual: "The season is usually pretty quiet through July," Klotzbach noted. "On average, we've got over 95% of major hurricane activity left to go and still about 93% of ACE left to go. On average, our first hurricane forms in the Atlantic on August 11." What's the forecast for the first couple weeks of August? Hazelton explained that "large-scale conditions should become a little more favorable as a Madden-Julian Oscillation pulse crosses the Pacific and moves into the Atlantic, enhancing large-scale rising motion and reducing shear. Conditions should especially become more favorable the 2nd-3rd week of August, which aligns pretty well with the long-term climatology of when the Atlantic starts to become more active." Madden-Julian Oscillation pulse: The 2025 hurricane season is off to a perplexing start "So in short, July should end with little fanfare, but we'll need to watch for an uptick in activity come the first and second week of August," Lowry said. What is the Madden-Julian Oscillation? Something to be watching over the next few weeks is the passage of the rising branch of the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO, largely a nonplayer so far this hurricane season, Lowry explained to USA TODAY. The MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, noted Climate Prediction Center meteorologist Jon Gottschalck in an online report. The MJO influences tropical cyclone activity in both the eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins during the Northern Hemisphere summer. "As we head into early August, the Madden-Julian Oscillation should be moving into more favorable phases for Atlantic hurricane activity as well," Klotzbach said. "Typically phases 1-3 are when the Atlantic really ramps up." He said the latest European model forecast has the MJO moving into phase 1 the first week in August. Are waters warm enough for hurricanes to develop? Hurricanes need warm water to form, preferably 79 degrees or above, and water temperatures in a key section of the Atlantic are starting to warm up: "One of the biggest changes I've observed in recent weeks is a considerable warming of the so-called Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic above its seasonal averages," Lowry said. "To open the hurricane season in June, waters across this bellwether part of the Atlantic where most of our strongest hurricanes get their start were running average to even below average." He said that during this past week, MDR water temperatures have surged to the 7th warmest in the satellite record (back to 1981), running only slightly cooler than 2017 and 2005 at this point in the season. At the same time, he said the belt of water just north of the tropics has cooled since the start of the season, creating a more conducive orientation that favors rising air and storminess in the tropical Atlantic. "The central MDR looks reasonably primed for development," noted Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue in a Substack post. What's the status of Saharan Dust? How about the Bermuda High? Dust billowing out of the Sahara Desert in Africa can impact Atlantic hurricanes. According to the University of Miami, the Saharan Air Layer – a mass of dry, hot, and dust-laden air that forms over the Sahara Desert during the late spring, summer, and early fall, and moves over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean – can suppress tropical cyclone formation. "As far as the Saharan dust, it's been the lowest on record so far this hurricane season. This could actually be a symptom of less robust tropical waves that transport the dust across the Atlantic, but over the past week, the waves have been noticeably stronger," Lowry said. "Dust seasonally drops off quickly in August, so, except for sporadic outbreaks, Saharan dust becomes less of a factor in August and September," he added. As for the Bermuda High, a strong area of high pressure in the Atlantic, Hazelton said, "the stronger Bermuda High that has been present this summer (and brought a lot of the moisture into the U.S. that has enhanced the flooding) can also bring down more dry air from near Europe into the Atlantic, suppressing hurricane formation. We'll see if that pattern changes as we head into mid August." Rough hurricane season still expected The 2025 season is still expected to have 13 to 19 named storms, and six to 10 of those will become hurricanes, according to a preseason forecast from NOAA. The agency's website underscores the importance of being prepared regardless of the hurricane season forecast. The ultimate preparedness checklist: How to prepare your house for a hurricane This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane season 2025 is about to heat up, forecast says
Newsweek
3 days ago
- Climate
- Newsweek
Map Shows Heavy Rain as Flash Floods Hit Three States
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued flash flood warnings for parts of Iowa, Illinois and Missouri, as thunderstorms in the region bring heavy, rapid rainfall. Why It Matters Flooding is the second deadliest weather hazard nationwide, with most fatalities occurring when vehicles are swept away by rising waters. On July 4, Texas flash floods killed at least 135 with three still missing. As of mid-July, the NWS has issued a record number of flash flood warnings year-to-date, with 3,160 warnings issued through July 16, according to Iowa State University's Iowa Environmental Mesonet tracker. What To Know In a Saturday advisory, the NWS warned that portions of the three states are under flash flood warnings due to expected thunderstorms that will bring heavy rain. As of Saturday morning, "between 2 and 5 inches of rain have fallen," and the "expected rainfall rate is 0.25 to 1 inch in 1 hour." For parts of southeastern Iowa, west central Illinois, and northeastern Missouri flash flooding is already occurring, the NWS warned. Missouri Department of Transportation reported that portions of some roads have been closed due to water on the roadways. NWS warned people to "turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads," noting that "most flood deaths occur in vehicles." Nearly half of Iowa is also under extreme heat watch on Saturday, as July continues to bake the area with frequent heat indexes into the triple digits. Heat index values reflect how hot it feels when both temperature and humidity are factored in. What People Are Saying NWS Des Moines wrote in a Friday X, formerly Twitter, post: "Dangerous heat & humidity builds across Iowa through early next week. Maximum heat index values are expected to exceed 100 degrees everywhere, with a few locations potentially exceeding 110F! An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for western/central Iowa beginning Sunday." AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva previously told Newsweek: "When the atmosphere is getting warmer as a what it's doing is making summer warmer and the shoulder seasons warmer as well. What's happening is those seasons, especially in the summertime, the [atmosphere's] ability to hold more moisture is going up as well. It doesn't guarantee we will see more rain over a certain area, it rains, it's going to rain heavier." Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist and storm expert, wrote in a July 15 X post: "So far in 2025, more flood warnings have been issued by @NWS than any year on record (since 1986)." AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jon Porter said in a July 21 AccuWeather article: "So far in 2025 across the U.S., there's been a 70% increase in reports of flash flooding when you compare that to the 10-year historic average through mid-July." What Happens Next? Many of the flash flood advisories are until 11:30 a.m. local time.
Irish Times
4 days ago
- Politics
- Irish Times
The Ministerial phones are off and the bags are packed. You couldn't begrudge them the holiday
'He's away,' came the reply from the Minister's number. 'I have his phone.' Wise man. Time to pack up for a few weeks. Leinster House is already a ghost town. There'll be a 'fairly perfunctory' Cabinet meeting on Tuesday with a few bits and that's it. With an election looming, the political class didn't get much of a break last summer. At Christmas, there was a government to be formed. So lots and lots of people in all parties and none, and the people who work for them, are looking forward to the summer break. It got under way this week and will definitively start this weekend. For many, it'll be the first proper holiday in two years. No wonder they're leaving the phones behind. READ MORE It has been a peculiar, frazzled political term since the Coalition was formed six months ago. Its genesis was bathed in controversy over the role of Michael Lowry and the nature of the deals – including changes to the Dáil standing orders – cut with the Independents . At the time, there was much hyperventilating about the threat to Irish democracy presented by the new administration. Those claims look a little hysterical in hindsight. How much time and effort did we all waste on them? Other charges laid against the new administration hold more water. It could hardly be said that the new Government hit the ground running; at times it barely seemed to have managed more than a leisurely stroll. Despite early promises to take 'difficult decisions', there has been no step change in housing . In fact, many indicators are going in the wrong direction. A series of moves by the new Minister for Housing James Browne, including changing apartment design standards to make them smaller and cheaper , may bear fruit in the future. But the Government does not look – yet anyway – like it is turning the housing crisis around. Despite much talk about a housing emergency, there is no real sense that the Government has moved to an emergency footing. You could say the same about pressing infrastructure needs in water and energy. To be honest, you could say the same about a lot of things. Relations between the two parties are businesslike, but not warm. The important business is done at leader level and there is an undercurrent of disharmony between them – if it's not mistrust, it's something approaching that. It is certainly not the case that there is sense of unambiguous common purpose. The strong and co-operative relationship between Paschal Donohoe and Jack Chambers covers a lot of the cracks. [ National Development Plan: €275bn to be spent over next 10 years, with housing receiving biggest boost Opens in new window ] It has hardly been a period of unbridled joy for the Opposition, either. Sinn Féin responded to the disappointment of the election result by reverting to a hyper-combative stance, turning the dial up to 10 on every issue. There were signs of a more united approach among the various parties, with some TDs hailing the emergence of a united left-wing opposition which could serve as the basis for a left-wing government in the future. For a time, especially during the rows over the changes to Dáil procedures, the leaders of the smaller Opposition parties looked like Mary Lou McDonald's supportive frontbenchers. Some of them looked happier at this role than others. There are audible rumblings in the Labour Party , not just because of its historic antipathy to Sinn Féin (not shared by the Social Democrats), but because many Labour people suspect that Sinn Féin's growth will come at the expense of other left-wing parties, not Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael . Meanwhile, there is semipublic wondering about the future of its own leader going on in Sinn Féin at the moment – a most unusual state of affairs for that party. Seldom have international affairs weighed so heavily over an Irish administration. The economic impact on Ireland of the unpredictable and destructive policies pursued by Donald Trump is the biggest challenge – and the greatest unknowable – facing the Government and the country this summer. A trade deal between the EU and the US reportedly hangs in the balance this weekend – but even that may deliver a general tariff of 15 per cent. No deal means a trade war, and higher tariffs on both sides. For a start, that would tear up the Government's budget numbers, even before it began making itself felt in the real economy. The outlook is more threatening for the Irish economic model, and the prosperity it has delivered, than at any time since the financial crisis. It may yet dwarf all the other challenges facing the Government. The other international issue that was a staple of our politics every week – there cannot be a parliament in Europe that saw Gaza discussed more than the Dáil – and will require decisions in the autumn is the Occupied Territories Bill . Both Opposition and Government politicians are increasingly appalled by Israel's actions in Gaza; only the Government has to decide what to do about it. [ Irish public's caution on Occupied Territories Bill reflects 'considered' view – Taoiseach Opens in new window ] The bill will shortly emerge from pre-legislative scrutiny. In the autumn, the Government will have to decide what it's going to do with it, and specifically if it will include services in its scope. This is in the face of an increasingly vigorous campaign against it – confirmed by two senior multinational executives – by the Israeli lobby in the US. You don't have to like that to take it seriously. A cold, hard reading of how exactly Ireland's interests and values should balance will be necessary: that is something to which many people in Government are very much not looking forward. For leaders, ministers, TDs, advisers, mandarins and officials of all stripes, on the beaches, golf courses, sun loungers and poolsides, up the airy mountain and down the rushy glen, the holidays are deserved and needed. Seldom have they felt so much like the calm before the storm.
