Latest news with #MichaelLowry
USA Today
4 hours ago
- Climate
- USA Today
A surprising 'outbreak' of tropical cyclones prowl the Pacific. What now?
The typically unremarkable Central Pacific Hurricane Basin has seen a surprising uptick in storms in late July. Both major Hurricane Iona and Tropical Storm Keli spin harmlessly far from land. The typically unremarkable central Pacific hurricane basin has seen a surprising uptick in storms in late July as both major Hurricane Iona and Tropical Storm Keli spin harmlessly far from land. "The central Pacific Ocean is in the midst of an unusual tropical cyclone 'outbreak,' recording two concurrent named storms for the first time since 2015 and its first major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane since Dora in August 2023," said WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry in an e-mail on July 29. Fortunately, "there is currently no immediate threat to the Hawaiian Islands from these systems," the National Weather Service in Honolulu said on July 29. While the twin storms in the central Pacific is "unusual," it's still a far cry from the all-time records set in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins: According to the National Hurricane Center, there have been as many as five active Atlantic tropical cyclones at once, which occurred Sept. 10-12, 1971. In the eastern Pacific, on Aug. 26, 1974, there were five simultaneous named storms of at least tropical storm strength, Phil Klotzbach, a tropical scientist at Colorado State University, told What does the activity in the Pacific mean for the US? While eastern Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes can affect the west coast of Mexico and their remnants occasionally affect the Southwest U.S. with drenching rain, central Pacific storms usually miss all land areas, though they can sometimes affect Hawaii. Tropical cyclones in the Pacific and Atlantic, while similar storms, have slightly different "seasons," with the eastern Pacific season starting two weeks earlier. Additionally, the large-scale climate factors that go into a given season's level of activity are different: For example, if forecasters predict an active Atlantic season due to La Niña, the opposite prediction is usually made for the eastern Pacific, which tends to be more active during El Niño years. As well, individual storms in each basin seldom interact directly since Central America acts as a barrier between the two basins. And while some storms can cross over between basins, usually their low-level circulation dissipates before making a complete crossover, the hurricane center said. Furthermore, hurricanes very rarely cross over from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic basin, AccuWeather reports: most of the hurricanes that have crossed over, records show, have taken a path from the Atlantic basin to the Pacific basin. Furthermore, both the central and eastern Pacific basins are separate from the Atlantic basin, which is the basin that we're most familiar with. All the basins have separate lists of names. Iona a major hurricane The Central Pacific Hurricane Center said in a July 29 advisory that Hurricane Iona had strengthened into a major hurricane several hundred miles south of the Hawaiian Islands. The storm had maximum sustained winds near 115 mph with higher gusts, making Iona a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. Iona was moving toward the west and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed during the next couple of days, according to hurricane center forecasters, who expect the storm to begin weakening by July 30. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Keli had maximum sustained winds near 40 mph with higher gusts and was forecast to continue moving westward. The hurricane center says "little change in strength" is forecast. The weather service said July 29, "although the tropical cyclones are forecast to pass several hundred miles south of Hawaii over the next couple of days, isolated thunderstorms along the northern periphery of these systems may effect the far southern portion of the offshore waters. And while some short-period southeast swells may reach southern shores of Hawaii, a much larger and unrelated south swell will dominate." Where is the central Pacific hurricane basin? The central Pacific basin encompasses all storms and hurricanes that form between 140° West Longitude and the International Date Line. It's distinct from the more familiar eastern Pacific basin, with the dividing line being an invisible line in midst of the ocean (140°W). Additionally, the National Hurricane Center handles naming for storms in the eastern Pacific, while the Central Pacific Hurricane Center handles naming for storms in the central Pacific. More: Hurricane Iona has strengthened into a Category 3 storm: See path Central Pacific basin is usually rather quiet The central Pacific basin can see a wide range of activity depending on the year, according to Lowry. Generally, he said the basin observes its most active hurricane seasons during El Niño years like 2015, 2009, and 1997 when it recorded 16, 7, and 9 tropical cyclones respectively. On average, the central Pacific sees only 4 to 5 tropical cyclones (tropical depression, storms, or hurricanes) each season and around three named storms (tropical storm or hurricanes), Lowry said. NOAA predicted a less active central Pacific hurricane season in 2025, with a range of 1-4 tropical cyclones across the basin.
Washington Post
20 hours ago
- Climate
- Washington Post
Pentagon reverses decision to cut off hurricane-tracking satellite data
Days before the Pentagon was set to cut off access to satellite observations that help meteorologists track hurricanes overnight, Defense Department officials told government forecasters they would continue sharing the data, after all. Defense officials initially announced in late June that they would terminate a feed of satellite data, giving meteorologists just a few days of notice. As forecasters raised concerns that any loss of data that helps detect fast-strengthening storms could increase the risks they pose to coastal communities, the Pentagon extended that timeline to July 31. But officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Tuesday they now expect 'no interruption' in the data their meteorologists receive through what is known as the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, which includes microwave-based observations that reveal storm activity even through the cover of darkness. A NOAA statement said the agency expects to continue receiving the data for as long as the aged satellites — which are in the process of being replaced — keep flying. NOAA cited an announcement from the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center reversing the termination. It was not immediately clear why the reversal was made. Navy officials could not immediately be reached for comment. Meteorologists cheered the decision, saying termination of the microwave data could have set back hurricane capabilities. Several decades ago, before such data was available, forecasters ran the risk of what they called a 'sunrise surprise,' when daylight would reveal that a storm had strengthened more than meteorologists had expected. 'Crisis averted,' hurricane expert Michael Lowry, a former National Hurricane Center senior scientist, wrote on the social media platform Bluesky. NOAA officials stressed that, while valuable, the Defense Department's microwave satellite observations represent 'a single dataset in a robust suite of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools.' Meteorologists at the Hurricane Center and National Weather Service also have access to microwave-based observations collected by NOAA's Joint Polar Satellite System. 'NOAA's data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve,' an agency statement said. Microwave is a form of radiation best known for how it interacts with water to heat food. But as microwave radiation also naturally emanates from Earth's surface, scientists can also use it to see where and how water is distributed in the atmosphere — and detect the structure and wind patterns of hurricanes even when they are invisible to the naked eye. Meteorologists have said such microwave data is vital as more hurricanes are undergoing rapid intensification, transforming from modest and disorganized systems into major Category 5 storms within a matter of hours. Global warming, as a result of fossil fuel combustion-based emissions and the greenhouse effect, is giving storms more energy to intensify, studies have shown. The more satellites circling the planet and collecting the microwave observations, the better the chances of detecting such rapid intensification more quickly, scientists said.
Axios
a day ago
- Climate
- Axios
NOAA will maintain vital satellite data used for hurricane forecasting
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will maintain long-term access to key Defense Department satellite data used for hurricane forecasting and more, the agency said in a statement Tuesday. Why it matters: The potential loss of the data threw a monkey wrench in forecasting operations just ahead of what's expected to be an above-average hurricane season. Driving the news: "The Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) has announced plans to continue distribution of Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) data beyond July 31, 2025," NOAA said in a statement, referring to a U.S. Navy forecasting unit and a DoD-run weather satellite program. "As a result, there will be no interruption to DMSP data delivery and NOAA will continue to have access to data from DMSP for the duration of the program's life span." News of the extension was earlier reported by meteorologist Michael Lowry, who previously wrote a detailed explanation of the program and its many benefits to forecasters. Catch up quick: The Defense Department shocked the meteorology world in June when it unexpectedly announced that access to the satellite data would be suspended due to undefined cybersecurity issues. The Pentagon later granted a monthlong extension that was set to expire this Thursday, July 31. What they're saying: The about-face "means our hurricane forecast tools should stay intact," Lowry posted Tuesday morning. "Crisis averted." Between the lines: Weather data is vital to both military operations and civilian users. The DMSP has been collecting weather data for U.S. military operations for more than five decades, according to the U.S. Space Force.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Hurricane season warning signs pile up. Brace for a dangerous August.
The hurricane map in the Atlantic Ocean may be nearly blank now, but forecasters say that may not last much longer, as several signs point to an uptick in activity across the basin. "The tropical environment should become more conducive for Atlantic hurricane activity in the next few weeks," said Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach in a July 24 email to USA TODAY. WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry agreed with this prediction, telling USA TODAY that "we're already seeing longer-range forecast models start to perk up... The deep Atlantic tropical waves coming from Africa have been peppier this week, and July 24's long-range forecast models jumped from a generally quiet next 15 days to a much busier look for the first part of August." Has it been a slow start to season? With three named tropical storms (Andrea, Barry and Chantal) so far, the number of storms is actually above average for this time of year. "Currently, we're above-normal for named storms but below normal for all other metrics," Klotzbach said. One of those metrics is Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), a key measurement of the severity of a hurricane season. ACE measures the total wind energy produced by a season of tropical storms and hurricanes. It measures the intensity and duration of storms, and gives a better indication of overall activity than simply counting the number of storms, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. By that measurement, this is the slowest start to an Atlantic season since 2009, as the three storms that formed were all rather weak, though Chantal did cause some deadly flooding in North Carolina. 'Approaching a pivot point' The season is about to heat up, Lowry said, as August is the month when activity usually ramps up. Lowry said that "despite the slow start we're approaching a pivot point in the Atlantic. Hurricanes aren't common in June and July. They happen, of course, but there are usually tall hurdles to overcome to get there." However, he added "that's not the case in August, September, and the first part of October. Those hurdles are a lot shorter so the right window can get you a big hurricane in a hurry," he said. What does the rest of July look like for development in the Atlantic? "Things look pretty quiet overall," Andy Hazelton, a hurricane scientist at the University of Miami, told USA TODAY in an e-mail. "There are some stronger waves starting to show up in the Central Atlantic, but right now, dry and sinking air is making development tough. There's another wave coming off (Africa) that may have a slight chance of development in about a week or so near the Caribbean Islands," he said. A slow July isn't unusual: "The season is usually pretty quiet through July," Klotzbach noted. "On average, we've got over 95% of major hurricane activity left to go and still about 93% of ACE left to go. On average, our first hurricane forms in the Atlantic on August 11." What's the forecast for the first couple weeks of August? Hazelton explained that "large-scale conditions should become a little more favorable as a Madden-Julian Oscillation pulse crosses the Pacific and moves into the Atlantic, enhancing large-scale rising motion and reducing shear. Conditions should especially become more favorable the 2nd-3rd week of August, which aligns pretty well with the long-term climatology of when the Atlantic starts to become more active." Madden-Julian Oscillation pulse: The 2025 hurricane season is off to a perplexing start "So in short, July should end with little fanfare, but we'll need to watch for an uptick in activity come the first and second week of August," Lowry said. What is the Madden-Julian Oscillation? Something to be watching over the next few weeks is the passage of the rising branch of the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO, largely a nonplayer so far this hurricane season, Lowry explained to USA TODAY. The MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, noted Climate Prediction Center meteorologist Jon Gottschalck in an online report. The MJO influences tropical cyclone activity in both the eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins during the Northern Hemisphere summer. "As we head into early August, the Madden-Julian Oscillation should be moving into more favorable phases for Atlantic hurricane activity as well," Klotzbach said. "Typically phases 1-3 are when the Atlantic really ramps up." He said the latest European model forecast has the MJO moving into phase 1 the first week in August. Are waters warm enough for hurricanes to develop? Hurricanes need warm water to form, preferably 79 degrees or above, and water temperatures in a key section of the Atlantic are starting to warm up: "One of the biggest changes I've observed in recent weeks is a considerable warming of the so-called Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic above its seasonal averages," Lowry said. "To open the hurricane season in June, waters across this bellwether part of the Atlantic where most of our strongest hurricanes get their start were running average to even below average." He said that during this past week, MDR water temperatures have surged to the 7th warmest in the satellite record (back to 1981), running only slightly cooler than 2017 and 2005 at this point in the season. At the same time, he said the belt of water just north of the tropics has cooled since the start of the season, creating a more conducive orientation that favors rising air and storminess in the tropical Atlantic. "The central MDR looks reasonably primed for development," noted Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue in a Substack post. What's the status of Saharan Dust? How about the Bermuda High? Dust billowing out of the Sahara Desert in Africa can impact Atlantic hurricanes. According to the University of Miami, the Saharan Air Layer – a mass of dry, hot, and dust-laden air that forms over the Sahara Desert during the late spring, summer, and early fall, and moves over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean – can suppress tropical cyclone formation. "As far as the Saharan dust, it's been the lowest on record so far this hurricane season. This could actually be a symptom of less robust tropical waves that transport the dust across the Atlantic, but over the past week, the waves have been noticeably stronger," Lowry said. "Dust seasonally drops off quickly in August, so, except for sporadic outbreaks, Saharan dust becomes less of a factor in August and September," he added. As for the Bermuda High, a strong area of high pressure in the Atlantic, Hazelton said, "the stronger Bermuda High that has been present this summer (and brought a lot of the moisture into the U.S. that has enhanced the flooding) can also bring down more dry air from near Europe into the Atlantic, suppressing hurricane formation. We'll see if that pattern changes as we head into mid August." Rough hurricane season still expected The 2025 season is still expected to have 13 to 19 named storms, and six to 10 of those will become hurricanes, according to a preseason forecast from NOAA. The agency's website underscores the importance of being prepared regardless of the hurricane season forecast. The ultimate preparedness checklist: How to prepare your house for a hurricane This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane season 2025 is about to heat up, forecast says
Newsweek
4 days ago
- Climate
- Newsweek
Map Shows Heavy Rain as Flash Floods Hit Three States
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued flash flood warnings for parts of Iowa, Illinois and Missouri, as thunderstorms in the region bring heavy, rapid rainfall. Why It Matters Flooding is the second deadliest weather hazard nationwide, with most fatalities occurring when vehicles are swept away by rising waters. On July 4, Texas flash floods killed at least 135 with three still missing. As of mid-July, the NWS has issued a record number of flash flood warnings year-to-date, with 3,160 warnings issued through July 16, according to Iowa State University's Iowa Environmental Mesonet tracker. What To Know In a Saturday advisory, the NWS warned that portions of the three states are under flash flood warnings due to expected thunderstorms that will bring heavy rain. As of Saturday morning, "between 2 and 5 inches of rain have fallen," and the "expected rainfall rate is 0.25 to 1 inch in 1 hour." For parts of southeastern Iowa, west central Illinois, and northeastern Missouri flash flooding is already occurring, the NWS warned. Missouri Department of Transportation reported that portions of some roads have been closed due to water on the roadways. NWS warned people to "turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads," noting that "most flood deaths occur in vehicles." Nearly half of Iowa is also under extreme heat watch on Saturday, as July continues to bake the area with frequent heat indexes into the triple digits. Heat index values reflect how hot it feels when both temperature and humidity are factored in. What People Are Saying NWS Des Moines wrote in a Friday X, formerly Twitter, post: "Dangerous heat & humidity builds across Iowa through early next week. Maximum heat index values are expected to exceed 100 degrees everywhere, with a few locations potentially exceeding 110F! An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for western/central Iowa beginning Sunday." AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva previously told Newsweek: "When the atmosphere is getting warmer as a what it's doing is making summer warmer and the shoulder seasons warmer as well. What's happening is those seasons, especially in the summertime, the [atmosphere's] ability to hold more moisture is going up as well. It doesn't guarantee we will see more rain over a certain area, it rains, it's going to rain heavier." Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist and storm expert, wrote in a July 15 X post: "So far in 2025, more flood warnings have been issued by @NWS than any year on record (since 1986)." AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jon Porter said in a July 21 AccuWeather article: "So far in 2025 across the U.S., there's been a 70% increase in reports of flash flooding when you compare that to the 10-year historic average through mid-July." What Happens Next? Many of the flash flood advisories are until 11:30 a.m. local time.
