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UPI
a day ago
- Politics
- UPI
3 reasons Republicans' redistricting power grab might backfire
Texas state Democratic representatives, shown at a rally in Washington, previously left the state in 2021 to try to prevent the state's Republicans from reaching a quorum and passing new voting restrictions legislation. File Photo by Michael Reynolds/EPA The gerrymandering drama in Texas -- and beyond -- has continued to unfold after Democratic state legislators fled the state. The Democrats want to prevent the Republican-controlled government from enacting a mid-decade gerrymander aimed at giving Republicans several more seats in Congress. The Texas GOP move was pushed by President Donald Trump, who's aiming to ensure he has a GOP-controlled Congress to work with after the 2026 midterm elections. Other Republican states such as Missouri and Ohio may also follow the Texas playbook; and Democratic states such as California and Illinois seem open to responding in kind. But there are a few factors that make this process more complicated than just grabbing a few House seats. They may even make Republicans regret their hardball gerrymandering tactics, if the party ends up with districts that political scientists like me call "dummymandered." Democrats can finally fight back Unlike at the federal level, where Democrats are almost completely shut out of power, Republicans are already facing potentially consequential retaliation for their gerrymandering attempts from Democratic leaders in other states. Democrats in California, led by Gov. Gavin Newsom, are pushing for a special election later this year, in which the voters could vote on new congressional maps in that state, aiming to balance out Democrats' losses in Texas. If successful, these changes would take effect prior to next year's midterm elections. Other large Democratic-controlled states, such as Illinois and New York -- led by Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Gov. Kathy Hochul, respectively -- have also indicated openness to enacting their own new gerrymanders to pick up seats on the Democratic side. New York and California both currently use nonpartisan redistricting commissions to draw their boundaries. But Hochul recently said she is "sick and tired of being pushed around" while other states refuse to adopt redistricting reforms and gerrymander to their full advantage. Hochul said she'd even be open to amending the state constitution to eliminate the nonpartisan redistricting commission. It's unclear whether these blue states will be successful in their efforts to fight fire with fire; but in the meantime, governors like Hochul and Pritzker have welcomed the protesting Democratic legislators from Texas, in many cases arranging for their housing during their self-imposed exile. Dummymandering Another possible problem for either party looking to gain some seats in this process stems from greediness. In responding to Democrats' continued absence from Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott threatened even more drastic gerrymanders. "If they don't start showing up, I may start expanding," Abbott said. "We may make it six or seven or eight new seats we're going to be adding on the Republican side." But Abbott might think twice about this strategy. Parties that gerrymander their states' districts are drawing lines to maximize their own advantage, either in state legislatures or, in this case, congressional delegations. When parties gerrymander districts, they don't usually try to make them all as lopsided as possible for their own side. Instead, they try to make as many districts as possible that they are likely to win. They do this by spreading groups of supportive voters across several districts so they can help the party win more of these districts. But sometimes the effort backfires: In trying to maximize their seats, a party spreads its voters too thin and fails to make some districts safe enough. These vulnerable districts can then flip to the other party in future elections, and the opposing party ends up winning more seats than expected. This phenomenon, commonly referred to as "dummymandering," has happened before. It even happened in Texas, where Republicans lost a large handful of poorly drawn state legislative districts in the Dallas suburbs in 2018, a strong year for Democrats nationwide. With Democrats poised for a strong 2026 midterm election against an unpopular president, this is a lesson Republicans might need to pay attention to. There's not much left to gerrymander One of the main reasons dummymandering happens is that there has been so much gerrymandering that there are few remaining districts competitive enough for a controlling party to pick off for themselves. This important development has unfolded for two big reasons. First, in terms of gerrymandering, the low-hanging fruit is already picked over. States controlled by either Democrats or Republicans have already undertaken pretty egregious gerrymanders during previous regular redistricting processes, particularly following the 2010 and 2020 censuses. Republicans have generally been more adept at the process, particularly in maximizing their seat shares in relatively competitive states such as Wisconsin and North Carolina that they happen to control. But Democrats have also been successful in states such as Maryland, where only one Republican serves out of nine seats, despite the party winning 35% of the presidential vote in 2024. In Massachusetts, where Democrats hold all eight seats, Republicans won 37% of the presidential vote in 2024. There's also the fact that over the past half-century, "gerrymanderable" territory has become more difficult to find regardless of how you draw the boundaries. That's because the voting electorate is more geographically sorted between the parties. This means that Democratic and Republican voters are segregated from each other geographically, with Democrats tending toward big cities and suburbs, and Republicans occupying rural areas. As a result, it's become less geographically possible than ever to draw reasonable-looking districts that split up the other party's voters in order to diminish the opponents' ability to elect one of their own. Regardless of how far either party is willing to go, today's clash over Texas redistricting represents largely uncharted territory. Mid-decade redistricting does sometimes happen, either at the hands of legislatures or the courts, but not usually in such a brazen fashion. And this time, the Texas attempt could spark chaos and a race to the bottom, where every state picks up the challenge and tries to rewrite their electoral maps - not in the usual once-a-decade manner, but whenever they're unsatisfied with the odds in the next election. Charlie Hunt is an associate professor of political science at Boise State University. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. The views and opinions in this commentary are solely those of the author.
UPI
6 days ago
- Business
- UPI
U.S.-Korea alliance enters new era -- from security to industry
Hanwha's Philly Shipyard could play a pivioal role in the rebirth of U.S. shipbuilding in coming years. File Photo by Michael Reynolds/EPA SEOUL, Aug. 7 (UPI) When U.S. Navy Secretary John C. Phelan and former White House Budget Director Russell Vought visited Hanwha's Philly Shipyard on July 30, it was more than a symbolic gesture. Their inspection, which included a meeting with Korean welding trainees and close observation of automated welding systems from Hanwha's Geoje yard, reflected a dramatic shift underway in the U.S.-Korea alliance -- from military defense to industrial partnership. The following day, former President Donald Trump announced that Washington and Seoul had reached a landmark agreement on tariffs. At its center lies the MASGA Project-- short for "Make America's Shipyards Great Again" -- a $150 billion South Korean initiative embedded in a broader $350 billion investment fund to help revive America's floundering shipbuilding industry. The scale of the challenge is breathtaking. In 2024, U.S. shipyards delivered only seven vessels, amounting to just 0.1% of global market share. Meanwhile, China controls nearly half of global shipbuilding. Rebuilding this capacity has become not only an economic priority, but also a national security imperative. For Washington, Korea -- the world's second-largest shipbuilding power -- is the only credible partner to make that possible. Hanwha Vice Chairman Kim Dong-kwan outlined Seoul's strategy to the U.S. delegation: use the Philly Shipyard as a springboard to build new U.S. yards, train workers, restore supply chains and handle vessel maintenance and overhaul. If executed as envisioned, this collaboration could transform bilateral ties. As political scientist Dr. Lee Choon-Kun notes, "If the U.S. Navy becomes dependent on ships built or maintained in Korea, it won't just be an ally defending Korea -- it will be defending its own strategic assets on Korean soil." In Seoul, the response has been swift. The ruling party introduced a "MASGA Support Act" aimed at removing legal and regulatory obstacles to shipbuilding cooperation. Plans are underway to acquire mid-sized Korean shipbuilders for modular construction and MRO services exclusively for U.S. Navy use. Some sites may even be designated as "defense industry districts" that meet U.S. security standards, with the possibility of giving the U.S. Navy operational control -- mirroring arrangements at Camp Humphreys. Korea would provide labor and technical capability, while the United States would provide capital and strategic requirements. MASGA is only one front in this new alliance. Another is semiconductors. On July 28, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced a $16.5 billion agreement with Samsung Electronics to manufacture next-generation AI6 chips at a new foundry under construction in Taylor, Texas. These ultra-high-performance chips -- designed for autonomous vehicles, humanoid robots and AI data centers -- will begin production late next year using Samsung's 2-nanometer process. Musk cited multiple reasons for the deal: improved yield rates, competitive pricing, geographic proximity and a desire to diversify away from Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC. Musk is so enthusiastic that he has even suggested establishing a personal office inside Samsung's Texas facility to monitor progress -- underscoring how closely intertwined the U.S. and Korean tech sectors have become. In addition, the Korea Trade Insurance Corp. has issued a $1 billion guarantee to LG Chem for its $2 billion cathode materials plant under construction in Clarksville, Tenn. -- part of the $200 billion investment fund agreed upon during the tariff deal. Once operational, the plant will supply enough cathode material annually to power 600,000 electric vehicles. Cathodes account for roughly 40% of a battery's cost, making the project critical for EV strategy and industrial supply chains. Yet, these grand plans face real-world challenges -- foremost among them, a shortage of skilled labor. South Korea's shipbuilding sector reported a 14.7% vacancy rate in the first half of 2024 -- nearly twice the national average. The younger generation is increasingly turning away from shipbuilding due to wage stagnation, unstable job prospects, and grueling conditions. Technical schools have shuttered or shifted focus. Even the "Big Three" shipbuilders-Hyundai, Daewoo, and Samsung-struggle to recruit trainees for their internal academies. If this labor crisis is not addressed soon, Korea may fall short of its MASGA commitments, undermining both its credibility and the alliance's momentum. A coordinated national strategy to rebuild the shipbuilding workforce is urgently needed. Another concern is the pending "Yellow Envelope Bill," a proposed labor law that would expand subcontractor unions' bargaining rights. While supporters view it as a step toward fairness, major industry leaders warn it could destabilize core industries vital to U.S.-Korea cooperation. Federation of Korean Industries Chairman Sohn Kyung-shik has cautioned that hundreds of subcontractor unions could simultaneously demand negotiations in fields like shipbuilding and semiconductors -- leading to logistical chaos and investor pullback. If the bill proceeds, it would be prudent to exempt key strategic sectors, including those targeted by the recent trade deal: shipbuilding, semiconductors, nuclear energy, batteries and biotech. The U.S.-Korea alliance is no longer defined solely by military bases and defense treaties. It is being redefined in factories, shipyards, and fabrication labs. But whether this transformation succeeds depends in large part on the choices made in Seoul. The Lee Jae Myung administration now stands at a pivotal juncture. If it rises above ideological distractions and prioritizes strategic execution, Korea could seize a once-in-a-generation opportunity. If not, it risks allowing a historic industrial and geopolitical realignment to slip through its fingers. Nohsok Choi is the former chief editor of the Kyunghyang Shinmun and former Paris correspondent. He currently serves as president of the Kyunghyang Shinmun Alumni Association, president of the Korean Media & Culture Forum and CEO of the YouTube channel One World TV.
ABC News
29-07-2025
- Politics
- ABC News
Hobart City Council pursuing Labor on costs to remove election signage, but no edict to pay
Tasmanian Labor will need to decide whether to ignore or pay a request for payment from Hobart City Council for the clean-up costs of election material from city bus stops, bins and power poles. The request, raised at the council's meeting on Monday night, would seek to recoup between $4,000 and $5,000 incurred for a three-person crew to remove "TassieDoc" stickers from the CBD, Sandy Bay and New Town. The stickers, promoting a Labor election promise, appeared in the lead-up to the state's snap election on July 19. "Apart from the cost incurred by the city, it is entirely inappropriate for city assets to be used unlawfully for political promotion," Hobart City Council then-acting chief executive Michael Reynolds wrote in a letter to the political party, dated July 17. "A number of the city's poles, bins and bus stop infrastructure have also been scratched or paint lifted when the stickers/posters were removed," he wrote. But Monday night's motion at the city council's weekly meeting acknowledged Labor may not be behind the promotional material. "There is no suggestion that the placement of the stickers was authorised or supported by the Tasmanian Labor Party," Councillor Louise Elliot, who tabled the motion, said. "That said, multiple Labor volunteers were recorded and identified placing Labor's promotional material on council infrastructure." Election signage rules under the Tasmanian Planning Scheme [TPS] state that all campaign material must be removed within seven days after an election. The optional nature of the request for payment leaves the door open for Labor to ignore it. "It could very well be Labor's prerogative to say, 'no, get stuffed. We're not gonna pay that invoice,'" Cr Elliot said. "But I think if I was Mr Winter, I would be saying 'let's pay this as a gesture of goodwill.'" The wording of Cr Elliot's motion originally suggested an invoice should be issued to Labor. But the chamber heard that council invoices could only be issued for goods or services. It was suggested a request for payment be sent instead. Another option for the council would be to endorse an investigation into the individuals involved, which could lead to the recovery of costs through the magistrates' court. "Going through the investigating and researching and options stage, that just costs ratepayers more. Instead, we can hopefully nip it in the bud," Cr Elliot said. The motion passed 8–3, with Lord Mayor Anna Reynolds in support. Speaking on ABC Hobart's Mornings program, Cr Reynolds said, "it does cost the ratepayers money to clean stickers off poles". Hobart City Councillor Louise Bloomfield said the Labour Party benefited from the stickers' placement. "What I like about this motion is it actually starts to set some precedent," Cr Bloomfield said. "It starts to send the message out that if you're going to run [for office], this isn't acceptable because sadly this is not the first time this has happened." Councillor Ryan Posselt, who is a Labor member, abstained from voting but made his position clear during last night's discussion. "I'm not sure, other than for political reasons, why we would go ambulance-chasing the Labor Party when we have the identity of the people who broke the law," Cr Posselt said. He said a council investigation should continue with the aim of holding the individuals responsible. "The party itself didn't sanction it. This was the action of either a rogue campaign for an individual candidate, or rogue people associated with that campaign." The Tasmanian Labor Party has been contacted for comment.
Toronto Sun
12-07-2025
- Politics
- Toronto Sun
Furor over Epstein files sparks clash between Bondi and Bongino at the Justice Department
Published Jul 12, 2025 • 4 minute read Daniel Bongino speaks during a House Judiciary Committee hearing on Capitol Hill, June 10, 2020, in Washington. Photo by Michael Reynolds / AP WASHINGTON (AP) — The Justice Department and FBI are struggling to contain the fallout from this week's decision to withhold records from the Jeffrey Epstein sex trafficking investigation, which rankled influential far-right media personalities and supporters of President Donald Trump. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Don't have an account? Create Account The move, which included the acknowledgment that one particular sought-after document never actually existed, sparked a contentious conversation between Attorney General Pam Bondi and FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino at the White House this week. The spat threatened to shatter relations between them and centered in part on a news story that described divisions between the FBI and the Justice Department. The cascade of disappointment and disbelief arising from the refusal to disclose additional, much-hyped records from the Epstein investigation underscores the struggles of FBI and Justice Department leaders to resolve the conspiracy theories and amped-up expectations that they themselves had stoked with claims of a cover-up and hidden evidence. Infuriated by the failure of officials to unlock, as promised, the secrets of the so-called 'deep state,' Trump supporters on the far right have grown restless and even demanded change at the top. Your noon-hour look at what's happening in Toronto and beyond. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Tensions that simmered for months boiled over on Monday when the Justice Department and FBI issued a two-page statement saying that they had concluded that Epstein did not possess a 'client list,' even though Bondi had intimated in February that such a document was sitting on her desk, and had decided against releasing any additional records from the investigation. The department did disclose a video meant to prove that Epstein killed himself in jail, but even that raised the eyebrows of conspiracy theorists because of a missing minute in the recording. It was hardly the first time that Trump administration officials have failed to fulfill their pledge to deliver the evidence that supporters had come to expect. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. In February, conservative influencers were invited to the White House and provided with binders marked 'The Epstein Files: Phase 1' and 'Declassified.' But the binders contained information that had largely already been in the public domain. Afterward, Bondi said an FBI 'source' informed her of the existence of thousands of pages of previously undisclosed documents and ordered the bureau to provide the 'full and complete Epstein files.' She later said officials were poring over a 'truckload' of previously withheld evidence she said had been handed over by the FBI. RECOMMENDED VIDEO But after a months-long review of evidence in the government's possession, the Justice Department determined in the memo Monday that no 'further disclosure would be appropriate or warranted.' The department noted that much of the material was placed under seal by a court to protect victims, and 'only a fraction' of it 'would have been aired publicly had Epstein gone to trial.' This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. The Trump administration had hoped that that statement would be the final word on the saga, with Trump chiding a reporter who asked Bondi about the Epstein case at a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday. But Bondi and Bongino had a tense exchange the following day at the White House, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a private conversation. Part of the clash centered on a story from the news organization NewsNation that cited a 'source close to the White House' as saying the FBI would have released the Epstein files months ago if it could have done so on its own. The story included statements from Bondi, Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche and FBI Director Kash Patel refuting the premise, but not Bongino. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. The news publication Axios was first to describe the conversation. Blanche sought to stem the fallout Friday with a social media post in which he said he had worked closely with Patel and Bongino on the Epstein matter and the joint memo. 'All of us signed off on the contents of the memo and the conclusions stated in the memo. The suggestion by anyone that there was any daylight between the FBI and DOJ leadership on this memo's composition and release is patently false,' he wrote on X. Also Friday, far-right activist Laura Loomer, who is close to Trump, posted on X that she was told that Bongino was 'seriously thinking about resigning' and had taken the day off to contemplate his future. Bongino is normally an active presence on social media but has been silent since Wednesday. The FBI did not respond to a request seeking comment, and the White House sought in a statement to minimize any tensions. 'President Trump has assembled a highly qualified and experienced law and order team dedicated to protecting Americans, holding criminals accountable, and delivering justice to victims,' said spokesman Harrison Fields. 'This work is being carried out seamlessly and with unity. Any attempt to sow division within this team is baseless and distracts from the real progress being made in restoring public safety and pursuing justice for all.' Columnists World Editorial Cartoons Relationships Toronto & GTA
Reuters
08-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Investors put 'Liberation Day' lessons to work, scarred by tariff tumult
NEW YORK, July 8 (Reuters) - Three months after President Donald Trump's sweeping global tariffs led markets to plunge and then rebound ferociously, investors are grappling with the fallout from the still-shifting trade backdrop and adjusting strategies to withstand sudden policy shifts. Among the lessons for investors from Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement on April 2, and the developments since then: Brace for surprises from the Trump administration and be flexible. Pay attention to trade as you would monetary and fiscal policy. Don't over-react to headlines -- but also make your portfolios as resilient as possible to tariff news. "We're used to just thinking in terms of fiscal and monetary, but now trade policy is almost like this third leg of government policy and how it affects the economy," said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede. Investors had been laser-focused on Wednesday, which marked the end of a 90-day pause Trump has placed on many of the most severe "reciprocal" tariffs he had imposed in April on trading partners. The White House on Monday delayed the start of tariffs to August 1, while telling 14 nations that they would face levies ranging from 25% for countries including Japan and South Korea, to 40% for Laos and Myanmar. "Investors, and the market more broadly, are used to literal interpretations of announcements and what we're realizing with the Trump administration is that is dangerous because there is often flexibility ultimately in the end result," said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide. "We've learned over the last three months there is flexibility." Stocks tumbled in the days following the "Liberation Day" announcement, with the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab falling to the brink of a bear market. Stock and bond volatility spiked, with the daily equity index swings among the most severe since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020. But stocks began climbing back following Trump's pause. A U.S. deal with the U.K. and a truce with China kept the market's momentum going. Volatility measures moderated significantly as well, with the Cboe Volatility index (.VIX), opens new tab, Wall Street's "fear gauge", falling to its long-term median level. Helped by a better-than-feared first-quarter earnings season and economic data, the S&P 500 on June 27 hit a record high for the first time in over four months. The benchmark index is now up about 6% for the year. "Uncertainty at Liberation Day was very open-ended," Reynolds said. "But the outline of a couple of these initial trade deals have kind of narrowed the field of what's probable on tariffs... The fact that we don't have this open-ended risk where tariffs could go anywhere I think is pretty constructive." Even so, he said, the rebound has been "so swift and large in magnitude that it wouldn't surprise us to see a near-term pullback." Stocks are not fully factoring in the negative impact to earnings from tariffs that are already in place while investors may be overly optimistic that trade deals will be completed, said Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group. "I'm not convinced that all the pieces are there for the stock market to be as positive as it is," Hooper said. One lesson from the past few months, Hooper said, is the potential for tariffs to "come out of left field." She pointed to Trump's threat this week that countries aligning themselves with the "Anti-American policies" of the BRICS bloc will be charged an additional 10% tariff. "What I've learned is to expect to be surprised," Hooper said. Some investors have referred to the acronym "TACO", or Trump Always Chickens Out, as a rationale for why markets should not fear the announcement of harsh tariffs because many believe they will likely be moderated. Heading into this week's initial tariff deadline, King Lip, chief strategist at Baker Avenue Wealth Management, said that market complacency was high and he expects more choppiness as trade uncertainty rises again. "The biggest risk for investors now is that there is no pause after the trade deadlines and large tariffs are imposed by the administration," Lip said. While stocks have rebounded, the U.S. dollar has continued to weaken since Liberation Day, sliding about 6% against a basket of major currencies. Investors have trimmed exposure to U.S. assets while also reassessing the greenback's status as the world's reserve currency because of the uncertain policy backdrop. Gold , which tends to benefit as a safe-haven asset during times of geopolitical uncertainty, has climbed 6% since April 2 and is up 26% on the year. Some investors have shifted strategies to manage through tariff uncertainty. Janus Henderson Investors has been paring back holdings in some portfolios that could be more vulnerable to tariffs, such as Japanese and European automakers and exporters with long supply chains, said Julian McManus, portfolio manager at the firm. Meanwhile, the firm has been favoring service companies that are removed from the crosshairs of the trade war, such as digital services or online music streaming companies. "We've been extending timelines and making portfolios more resilient," McManus said. "It's just important to keep a cool head and not get caught up in the day-to-day headlines that can be unsettling."
