Latest news with #MiddleEastInstability
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The Independent
26-06-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
Your Middle East questions answered – from Trump's fragile ceasefire to what Israelis think of Netanyahu
The war between Israel and Iran has once again raised urgent questions about where decades of conflict and instability in the Middle East are heading. In the wake of US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites – and with a fragile ceasefire just about holding – the geopolitical ground feels more brittle than ever. Reporting from Tel Aviv, I received a flood of questions from Independent readers: Can Trump's ceasefire survive? What do Israelis really think of Netanyahu? The Q&A that followed was wide-ranging. Readers challenged the motives behind US actions, the future of Nato, and whether any meaningful peace is still possible. Many also asked whether leaders like Keir Starmer are prepared to act independently of Washington. There were several moral questions, too: Can there truly be a ceasefire when Netanyahu thrives on chaos? Has Israel abandoned peace? Is the two-state solution now just a diplomatic illusion? Here are some of your questions from the Ask Me Anything event – and my best attempt to answer them, as directly and honestly as I can. Charl A: The US is very much still in Nato and has successfully forced the Europeans and Canada to increase defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035 and 3.5 per cent in the shorter term. This goes some way toward equalising the uneven burden of Nato on the US taxpayer. The US did know in advance about the Israeli attacks on Iran. Nato has no role at all in Iran and offered no significant view on it. Real European A: Article 5 has only been invoked once – by the US after 9/11. The UK did not invoke it when the Falklands were invaded by Argentina, possibly because the US (and perhaps others) did not see the invasion of UK territory that far from the mainland as a serious enough issue. Pete Hegseth has been equivocal on Article 5. This may explain why the EU and Canada are getting their defence systems in order, to make them functional independently of the US. Perplexed A: Starmer seems to combine the ability to stroke Trump's fragile ego with an understanding that Europe, the UK, and Canada will be stronger if they are capable of acting independently of the US militarily. Politically, he must know that the UK would be better off economically and strategically back in the EU – but he doesn't have the pluck to say so. Q: Is a long-term ceasefire or 'hudna' ideologically unacceptable to Israel? Commonsense A: Generally, Israel would like to have a 'long-term ceasefire.' Under Netanyahu, who is tactical, not strategic in his thinking, a 'ceasefire' allows for the continuation of the status quo, which means continued expansion into the West Bank. On Gaza, it's clear that a 'ceasefire' could naturally lead to a mass exodus of people from the enclave, as the means of survival have been turned to rubble. Q: What concrete conditions would be needed for a durable Iran–Israel ceasefire, and how likely is that? BigDogSmallBrain A: Iran will be asked to prove that it isn't developing a nuclear weapon. Israel will have to hold off on planning any future attacks. But both sides also know: More attacks on Iran make the regime vulnerable to change, and Netanyahu knows Israelis were stunned by the missiles that did get through – and the economy, along with his regime, may not have survived a protracted conflict. Q: Didn't the attack on Iran just accelerate their nuclear ambitions? Rogue A: Yes to all of that – but remember, Iran was probably developing nukes already, and as you say, will definitely want to now. Q: Is a two-state solution still possible, given the current state of Gaza and Israeli settlements? Carolan A: Not really – or not without gigantic 'concessions' from Israel and, from the Palestinians, a decision to give up on the 'right of return.' Some people are advocating a one-state solution, but that would undermine the nature of Jewish Israel. Q: What do Israelis think of Netanyahu's actions? Benitas A: A poll by Channel 12 shows a small bump for Netanyahu. A poll taken after a ceasefire was agreed between Israel and Iran, ending 12 days of war that are largely viewed as a resounding success for Israel, shows that the current pro-Netanyahu coalition bloc would win only 49 of the Knesset's 120 seats. The opposition would win 61, while the Arab parties, who have largely stayed out of coalitions, have 10, according to The Times of Israel. So Bibi's hold is just as weak, but it exists. No Israelis I spoke to offered any understanding of what the population in Gaza must be going through, even after they had experienced Iranian missile attacks, despite 95 per cent of Iran's missiles being shot down. Bob A: He might. He's shown impatience with both, but would have no choice but to join in again if US assets were seriously endangered.
Asharq Al-Awsat
22-06-2025
- Politics
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Gulf Countries Deplore Escalating Tensions in the Region
The United Arab Emirates urged on Sunday an immediate halt to escalation to "avoid serious repercussions" in the region following strikes by the US on Iran's nuclear facilities. It warned that such actions could lead the region to "new levels of instability," according to a statement from the foreign ministry. Qatar also said on Sunday that dangerous tensions following the US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites would lead to "catastrophic repercussions" on both regional and international levels. In a post on X, the foreign ministry deplored the "deterioration" to the status quo after the US strikes. It called on all parties 'to exercise wisdom, restraint, and to avoid further escalation." Oman condemned the airstrikes, saying they escalated tensions in the region. The US airstrikes threaten 'to expand the scope of the conflict and constitute a serious violation of international law and the United Nations charter,' a spokesperson for Oman's foreign ministry said in a statement. Oman was a mediator in the nuclear talks between Iran and the US that have been upended by the Israel-Iran war.
Al Jazeera
17-06-2025
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
What US interests are at stake in the Israel-Iran conflict?
The Israel-Iran conflict is bringing more instability to the Middle East, a region with extensive United States interests. They'll be central to shaping President Donald Trump's strategy. So what's at stake for Washington, and what are the pros and cons for Trump of further involvement? Presenter: Nick Clark Guests: Trita Parsi – executive vice president at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft PJ Crowley – a former US assistant secretary of state Niall Stanage – White House columnist at The Hill newspaper
Bloomberg
17-06-2025
- Politics
- Bloomberg
China Warns Iran-Israel Conflict May Spiral, Calls for Peace
China warned the Iran-Israel conflict may spread wider instability in the Middle East, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi reaching out to both countries as their days-old conflict shows no end in sight. 'If the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate or even spill over, the other countries in the Middle East will inevitably bear the brunt,' Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said in a regular briefing Monday. 'China will continue to maintain communication with relevant parties and promote talks for peace, so as to prevent more turmoil in the region.'
Times
17-06-2025
- Politics
- Times
Times letters: Iran and the prospect of regime change
Sir, Israel's leaders seem reluctant to learn from history. Saddam Hussein's invasion of Iran in 1980, in which the Iraqi leader expected a quick victory after the Iranian revolution the previous year, instead rallied popular support behind the regime and led to years of bloody conflict. Having campaigned ferociously to ditch the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Binyamin Netanyahu has embarked on a course which, while bringing yet more instability to the region, is more likely to reinforce the regime and make it determined to procure the ultimate means to protect itself. There are good reasons why previous US presidents have restrained Israel from taking military action against Iran. Netanyahu will no doubt continue to exploit the White House to advance his own agenda. But I disagree with your leading article (' Reckoning', Jun 14; letters, Jun 16) that he is doing the international community a favour. Edward Chaplin Cambridge
