Latest news with #MikeFlannigan
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
'It's pretty bleak': A warming planet is poised to get even hotter, forecasters warn
As hot, dry and disastrous as the last few years have been, it appears that the chaos caused by a warming planet is just getting started. Though the hottest year in nearly two centuries was recorded only last year, the world will probably shatter that record yet again by 2029, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization, the climate and weather arm of the United Nations. There is a very good chance that average warming over the next five years will be more than 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, or 1.5 degrees Celsius, above preindustrial levels, the cap established by the Paris Agreement to ward off the worst consequences of climate change. There's an even better chance that at least one of those years will be more than 2.7 degrees above the 1850 to 1900 average. That means we can expect many more days when the weather feels freakish and far more natural disasters that cost people their homes, health or lives. 'It's pretty bleak,' said Mike Flannigan, a fire scientist at Thompson Rivers University in British Columbia. 'My fear is that [the coming years] will be even warmer than they suggest, and the impacts will continue to catch us by surprise and be more severe than we expect across the world, including the American West.' In the western U.S. states, including California, those effects most probably include drought, heat waves and longer fire seasons with more intense wildfires, climate scientists said. 'As the globe has warmed thus far, the western U.S. has warmed as well, but without increases in precipitation that compensate for the drought- and wildfire-promoting effects of warming,' UCLA professor Park Williams said. Last year, Williams examined 1,200 years of geological records and found that the previous 25 years were probably the driest quarter of a century since the year 800. He sees no reason why that trend won't continue. 'Given that there is not even a whiff of a hint that our global greenhouse gas emissions are going to slow in the next few years, then it appears virtually certain that the globally averaged temperature will continue to set new records every few years or so, just as it's done over the past four to five decades,' Williams said. The projections in the U.N. report are based on more than 200 forecasting models run by scientists at 14 research institutes around the globe, including two managed by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The report found an 80% chance that at least one year in the 2025 to 2029 period will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record, and an 86% chance that at least one of those years will exceed the 2.7 degrees warming target. It estimated a 70% likelihood that average warming over that period will be more than 2.7 degrees, though total warming averaged over 20 years — the Paris Agreement standard — will probably remain below that threshold. 'Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,' Ko Barrett, deputy secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, said in a statement. The consequences of warming will probably vary widely across the world, the report found: rapid thawing of Arctic sea ice, drier seasons in the Amazon, excess rain in places such as Alaska, northern Europe and the Sahel in north-central Africa. Hotter temperatures are more effective at evaporating water out of plants and soil, leading to droughts and failed crop seasons. At the same time, a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which increases the chance of flood-inducing downpours and hurricanes. Episodes of climate 'whiplash' — rapid swings between wet-to-dry and dry-to-wet conditions — are also growing more frequent and intense because of rising global temperatures. The devastating Palisades and Eaton wildfires in January erupted after such a period. Unusually heavy rains in 2023 led to an explosion of new vegetation, which dried out and turned into kindling during an exceptionally dry 2024. The same week that the fires began, government agencies in the U.S. and around the world confirmed that 2024 was the planet's hottest year since recordkeeping began in 1880. It was the 11th consecutive year the record had been set. The U.S. will likely head into this period of climate chaos with a drastically reduced ability to forecast disasters and head off their worst consequences. Rounds of firings have reduced staffing at NOAA, including in the agency's National Weather Service. The Trump administration has proposed a $1.5-billion cut to NOAA's budget in 2026, a 25% reduction from the previous year's spending. Those budget cuts are part of a wider turn away from climate mitigation efforts. The U.S. already had a messy relationship with the Paris Agreement. It withdrew from the international accord just days before President Trump lost his reelection bid in November 2020. The U.S. rejoined when Joe Biden entered the White House in January 2021, but pulled out again when Trump began his second term in January. Trump has gone even further to roll back U.S. climate science this time. The phrases 'climate crisis,' 'clean energy' and 'climate science' are among the prohibited terms that federal funding recipients and employees must reportedly strike from websites, reports, regulations and other communications. In April, the administration dismissed more than 400 scientists and other experts who started writing the latest National Climate Assessment report, a congressionally mandated assessment of the latest climate change science and mitigation progress. Meanwhile, the warming trend continues. And there's no withdrawing from the planetary consequences. 'It's scary. It really is,' Flannigan said. 'A lot of people are ignoring this, or [saying] 'it won't be in my backyard.' But it's going to be in just about everyone's backyard soon.' This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
Los Angeles Times
29-05-2025
- Climate
- Los Angeles Times
‘It's pretty bleak': A warming planet is poised to get even hotter, forecasters warn
As hot, dry and disastrous as the last few years have been, it appears that the chaos caused by a warming planet is just getting started. Though the hottest year in nearly two centuries was recorded only last year, the world will probably shatter that record yet again by 2029, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization, the climate and weather arm of the United Nations. There is a very good chance that average warming over the next five years will be more than 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, or 1.5 degrees Celsius, above preindustrial levels, the cap established by the Paris Agreement to ward off the worst consequences of climate change. There's an even better chance that at least one of those years will be more than 2.7 degrees above the 1850 to 1900 average. That means we can expect many more days when the weather feels freakish and far more natural disasters that cost people their homes, health or lives. 'It's pretty bleak,' said Mike Flannigan, a fire scientist at Thompson Rivers University in British Columbia. 'My fear is that [the coming years] will be even warmer than they suggest, and the impacts will continue to catch us by surprise and be more severe than we expect across the world, including the American West.' In the western U.S. states, including California, those effects most probably include drought, heat waves and longer fire seasons with more intense wildfires, climate scientists said. 'As the globe has warmed thus far, the western U.S. has warmed as well, but without increases in precipitation that compensate for the drought- and wildfire-promoting effects of warming,' UCLA professor Park Williams said. Last year, Williams examined 1,200 years of geological records and found that the previous 25 years were probably the driest quarter of a century since the year 800. He sees no reason why that trend won't continue. 'Given that there is not even a whiff of a hint that our global greenhouse gas emissions are going to slow in the next few years, then it appears virtually certain that the globally averaged temperature will continue to set new records every few years or so, just as it's done over the past four to five decades,' Williams said. The projections in the U.N. report are based on more than 200 forecasting models run by scientists at 14 research institutes around the globe, including two managed by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The report found an 80% chance that at least one year in the 2025 to 2029 period will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record, and an 86% chance that at least one of those years will exceed the 2.7 degrees warming target. It estimated a 70% likelihood that average warming over that period will be more than 2.7 degrees, though total warming averaged over 20 years — the Paris Agreement standard — will probably remain below that threshold. 'Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,' Ko Barrett, deputy secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, said in a statement. The consequences of warming will probably vary widely across the world, the report found: rapid thawing of Arctic sea ice, drier seasons in the Amazon, excess rain in places such as Alaska, northern Europe and the Sahel in north-central Africa. Hotter temperatures are more effective at evaporating water out of plants and soil, leading to droughts and failed crop seasons. At the same time, a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which increases the chance of flood-inducing downpours and hurricanes. Episodes of climate 'whiplash' — rapid swings between wet-to-dry and dry-to-wet conditions — are also growing more frequent and intense because of rising global temperatures. The devastating Palisades and Eaton wildfires in January erupted after such a period. Unusually heavy rains in 2023 led to an explosion of new vegetation, which dried out and turned into kindling during an exceptionally dry 2024. The same week that the fires began, government agencies in the U.S. and around the world confirmed that 2024 was the planet's hottest year since recordkeeping began in 1880. It was the 11th consecutive year the record had been set. The U.S. will likely head into this period of climate chaos with a drastically reduced ability to forecast disasters and head off their worst consequences. Rounds of firings have reduced staffing at NOAA, including in the agency's National Weather Service. The Trump administration has proposed a $1.5-billion cut to NOAA's budget in 2026, a 25% reduction from the previous year's spending. Those budget cuts are part of a wider turn away from climate mitigation efforts. The U.S. already had a messy relationship with the Paris Agreement. It withdrew from the international accord just days before President Trump lost his reelection bid in November 2020. The U.S. rejoined when Joe Biden entered the White House in January 2021, but pulled out again when Trump began his second term in January. Trump has gone even further to roll back U.S. climate science this time. The phrases 'climate crisis,' 'clean energy' and 'climate science' are among the prohibited terms that federal funding recipients and employees must reportedly strike from websites, reports, regulations and other communications. In April, the administration dismissed more than 400 scientists and other experts who started writing the latest National Climate Assessment report, a congressionally mandated assessment of the latest climate change science and mitigation progress. Meanwhile, the warming trend continues. And there's no withdrawing from the planetary consequences. 'It's scary. It really is,' Flannigan said. 'A lot of people are ignoring this, or [saying] 'it won't be in my backyard.' But it's going to be in just about everyone's backyard soon.'
Calgary Herald
26-05-2025
- Climate
- Calgary Herald
Wildfires erupt near northern Alberta oil well sites
Article content Hot weather sparked a string of wildfires around Alberta over the weekend, including some near oil and gas wells operated by Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and others. Article content Article content Three out-of-control fires were burning in Alberta at noon Monday, including a 1,606-hectare blaze that prompted an emergency alert for the town of Swan Hills. That fire, burning eight kilometres from the town, is less than half a kilometre away from a CNRL-operated well site and within 20 kilometres of separate well sites operated by CNRL and other companies. Article content Canadian Natural didn't respond to a message seeking comment left late Sunday. Alberta Wildfire didn't respond to a phone call seeking comment. Article content An evacuation notice has been issued for Swan Hills, with residents in affected areas advised to prepare for a possible evacuation by gathering pets, important documents, medication and enough food, water and supplies for at least three days as well as adding fuel to vehicles. Article content This is an Alberta Emergency Alert. The Town of Swan Hills has updated a wildfire alert. A wildfire is burning 8 km North of the Town of Swan Hills. A one hour evacuation notice has now been put in place for the Town of Swan Hills. Everyone in the affected area should prepare… — Alberta Emergency Alert (@AB_EmergAlert) May 26, 2025 Article content Earlier this month, the province cancelled a planned Emergency Alert test due to increased wildfire activity. The alert has been used frequently to announce fires and evacuations in northern Alberta communities including Sturgeon County, Yellowhead County, Athabasca County, Parkland County, Hamlet of Fawcett and the Summer Village of Larkspur. Article content Article content Other communities, including the Village of Boyle and Thorhild County, issued local state of emergencies in May as a result of fast-moving and out-of-control fires. Article content Wildfire expert and professor at Thompson Rivers University in Kamloops, Mike Flannigan, has warned that Alberta's expected dry, hot summer increases potential for a busy fire season. Article content 'The forecast can be wrong, but right now it's supposed to be a hot, dry summer, especially in the south of Alberta,' he said, adding that a hot, dry summer generally means more fire. Article content The Bow Valley or Kananaskis Country is overdue for a big fire at some point, he said. Article content 'I'm not saying it's going to be this year, but I'm saying it's been primed for some time and one of these days we are going to see a big fire in that corridor,' said Flannigan. Article content Last year's fire in Jasper has experts fearing for a similar catastrophe in Banff. Article content 'It's just so primed to burn, you can't stop it — I don't think Banff has time,' Cliff White, a former Parks Canada forestry scientist, said last summer. Article content A wildfire in the area would be devastating, dwarfing the mega costs of the 2024 Jasper wildfire. Economic devastation would be amplified due to the Bow Valley's much larger population and visitor numbers. Article content That would also mean an increased chance of injuries or deaths of people, along with a bevy of negative impacts on the environment, wildlife, tourism, insurance rates, transportation and commerce, since vital rail lines and the Trans-Canada Highway run right through the area. Article content Wildfires present a regular threat to the province's oil and gas production, typically from March through October. Fort McMurray, the largest population center near Alberta's massive oilsands operations, was heavily damaged by a blaze in 2016 that forced thousands to evacuate and temporarily shut more than one million barrels of daily oil output.
CBC
17-05-2025
- Climate
- CBC
Weather conditions expected to fuel active wildfire season in southern Alberta
Heavy rainfall this week has brought down the immediate wildfire risk in southern Alberta, but dangerous conditions are still expected in the months ahead. Environment and Climate Change Canada is forecasting above-normal temperatures across the entire province through October. And while much of northern Alberta is expected to welcome above-average precipitation, below-average precipitation is predicted across much of southern Alberta. "If that forecast is correct, we could have fire problems," said Thompson Rivers University fire management expert Mike Flannigan, adding it doesn't take long after rain for the fire danger to pick up again. "I have a saying, 'Give me a week of warm, dry, windy weather. I can give you a raging inferno,'" he said. Alberta prepares as wildfire season begins Most of the Alberta wildfires sparked so far in 2025 have occurred north of Edmonton, according to the province's wildfire status dashboard. But Natural Resources Canada predicts the fire danger will shift to southern Alberta by August. "It's telling us that it's going to be warmer and drier across the south and it's looking like it's going to be kind of an average year for us, you know, in the northern parts of the province," said Derrick Forsythe with Alberta Wildfire. He noted the current long-range forecasts aren't "out of the ordinary." 'Jasper really made it hit home' Fire bans in some southern Alberta municipalities are no longer in place after they welcomed rain showers this week. Lethbridge's fire ban was lifted, while Vulcan County's was moved to a fire restriction. Fire advisories and restrictions remain in place in some southern Alberta municipalities, including in Rocky View County, where fire chief Ken Hubbard is promoting FireSmart practices. "Part of that is removing combustible barrels as well as grasses, scrubs, some logs, branches, twigs and needles that are within 10 metres of buildings," he said. A fire advisory was in place for Canmore, where fire chief Ted Ruiter is preparing for the summer fire season, but has since been lifted. Work on the Bow Valley community fireguard is still in progress. Trees are being removed in an area stretching from the east gates of Banff National Park to Dead Man's Flats to create a thinned-out forest zone around Canmore. The town is also pushing residents to adopt FireSmart practices, like pruning trees around homes and removing wood chips. "We're not ignorant to the fact that we're surrounded by this beautiful forest. And it does present some challenges from a climate change point of view as well as a wildfire point of view," said Ruiter. "Jasper really made it hit home. It's a reality now. And that was pretty close." Several wildfires converged on the community of Jasper last July, destroying one-third of the structures in the historic townsite and forcing residents and tourists to flee. The damage was estimated at $1.23 billion.
Calgary Herald
06-05-2025
- Climate
- Calgary Herald
Potential for a busy fire season in southern Alberta, says wildfire expert
Conditions are set up for a potentially active fire season in southern Alberta, says a wildfire expert. Article content Article content Mike Flannigan, a professor at Thompson Rivers University in Kamloops, said Tuesday it's already dry in southern Alberta, from about Calgary and the Bow Valley south to the U.S. border. Article content 'The forecast can be wrong, but right now it's supposed to be a hot, dry summer, especially in the south of Alberta,' he said, adding that a hot, dry summer generally means more fire. Article content Article content 'I'm not saying it's going to be this year, but I'm saying it's been primed for some time and one of these days we are going to see a big fire in that corridor,' said Flannigan. Article content In the spring, southern Alberta tends to get plenty of grassfires, but fire season in the south usually peaks in the summer, said Flannigan. In 2017, the Kenow fire in Waterton began in September and last year's Jasper fire started in July. Article content Article content Across Alberta, indicators suggest it could potentially be an active season, said Flannigan. Article content Flannigan advised Albertans to observe fire bans and other advisories, and follow common-sense FireSmart principles, such as keeping no flammable materials within 1.5 metres of a home or structure. Article content 'That's really important, because fire typically enters a community through embers. The fire generates these billions, trillions of embers, the wind carries them, they land on something flammable beside your home, it catches fire and then they catch your house on fire.' Article content Article content The website shows that numerous fire advisories, as well as a few restrictions and bans, have been enacted in southern Alberta. Article content Article content Heath Wright, Lethbridge County's regional manager of emergency services, said current moisture levels are 'quite good' and the risk is low in the area, but added fire officials always have concerns in southern Alberta. Article content 'You never know with the inconsistency with the winds and how much moisture we're going to get,' said Wright. 'It's always on high alert with us.' Article content 'There were indications that it might get out of control but our crews managed to hold of it,' he said, adding rural firefighters in the local departments are well trained in how to tackle grassfires and 'know how to pump a lot of water in a short period of time.'
