Latest news with #MikeMcGlone
Bloomberg
3 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Gold Price Spikes As Tariff Turmoil Hits Bullion
US tariffs on gold bars have caused US futures on the metal to jump higher versus the spot price set in London. The move may end up enhancing the importance of the US in the global bullion market. An unexpected levy on one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars coming into the US has caused upset in the precious metals market. The import tax will have the greatest impact on Switzerland, one of the top refining centers. The futures market for gold is based out of New York on the Comex exchange, and the very bars that are being tariffed are those that are suitable for Comex delivery. The prospect of tariffs has pushed up the price of gold futures, as stockpiles of deliverable metal in Comex warehouses will now be expected to fall before US refiners have the chance to make up the shortfall. Bloomberg's Mike McGlone reports. (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
15-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street analyst says he's 'very humbled by this rally' amid risk-on surge
Wall Street analyst says he's 'very humbled by this rally' amid risk-on surge originally appeared on TheStreet. Bitcoin hit a record $123,000 this week, an 'everything pump' moment that's left even veteran traders humbled. As Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone put it, 'Markets can be very humbling. So I'm very humbled by this rally in Bitcoin.' During a discussion led by TheStreet Roundtable Scott Melker, the panel dove into why risk assets are flying despite looming geopolitical tension and macroeconomic uncertainty. "We're all back to celebrate $123,000 Bitcoin," said Melker. "At this moment, we're trading at an extremely low and obviously disappointing price of $121,845—less than 1% off the high.' McGlone, who joined the meeting from the U.S. heartland, gave a wide-ranging summary of market signals from Bloomberg's morning coverage. One key takeaway came from Aniwon, who expects CPI to undercut estimates with a year-over-year figure around 2.8%.'She thinks a lot of the tariffs have already been factored in,' McGlone noted, adding, 'Retail sales, she expects to show a bit of a pullback.' He also flagged risks in equity markets, with strategist Gillian Wolf noting that 'analysts are dropping earning estimates. Outside of tech, she actually expects earnings to show contraction by the end of this year.' While some have warned of weakening U.S. bond appetite, McGlone pointed to Ira Jersey's insights on unexpectedly strong demand. 'The 30-years recently saw the most direct demand ever,' he said, mostly from domestic investment funds and primary dealers. On the FX front, Jill Freeman is still waiting for a bounce in the dollar but sees 'no catalyst.' Meanwhile, McGlone said the Trump-Powell tension is 'quite significant for the dollar.'But one of McGlone's most pressing points came from his commodities focus: 'Why buy gold when Bitcoin's on a tear, the stock market's on a tear, and interest rates are high? But yet they still are. Gold's hanging in there. Central banks are buying.' In closing, McGlone highlighted the divergence in global copper pricing and China's deflationary money supply surge: 'China's running about $45 trillion money, double the U.S. Despite that, their PPI is minus 3.6%.' Wall Street analyst says he's 'very humbled by this rally' amid risk-on surge first appeared on TheStreet on Jul 14, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jul 14, 2025, where it first appeared. Sign in to access your portfolio
Bloomberg
08-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Commodity cages that matter
This analysis is by Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone. It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal. Bouncing crude oil has usurped gold at the top of the commodity radar nearing the end of 1H, but may accelerate price-elasticity forces. Downward estimate revisions for global crude demand and upward for supply could gain fuel from the price spike. Enduring production disruptions appear as unlikely as $100 a barrel WTI crude vs. gravitation toward US break-even costs closer to $50. For crude and economically sensitive copper to remain buoyant, US stock market capitalization might need to persist above 2x GDP. Record-setting gold appears to be detecting the limits of elevated equities and $100,000 Bitcoin. If risk assets stay lofty, the metal may fall toward $3,000 an ounce. However, it's the potential to rise above $3,500 that we find disconcerting — a slight beta pullback may be all it takes. Gold vs. everything else Gold's $3,500 resistance, WTI oil's $80: Which is more enduring? Whether WTI crude oil can stay above $80 a barrel after bottoming around $55 in April is a key commodity question for 2H. Our bias is it's a crude bear market, and the bounce may provide producers better levels to hedge. Higher prices would add headwinds to a global economy facing tariffs. Gold appears on track to breach $3,500 an ounce resistance, especially if US stocks decline. Commodities may have bottomed vs. US stocks If the dollar keeps falling in 2H, gold is poised to continue leading broad commodity gains. However, it's the ebbing-tide risks of US stocks dropping for a recession that didn't come in 2023 that are fueling the metal as the world contends with unprecedented US tariffs. Up about 10% in 2025 to June 20, the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Total Return Index has been underpinned by a similar fall in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index. What's different may be the increasing strain on the US stock-market cap to keep rising above 2x GDP, to avoid a typical pattern of deflation following inflation.
Mint
02-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Gold is sending markets a big warning signal
So far this year, gold is dramatically outshining other metals. It may be bad news for the economy. It is no secret that gold, traditionally a haven asset, has been on a tear, with prices up 40% in the past year, thanks to buying by central banks and a chaotic U.S. political scene. On Friday, gold traded at $3313 an ounce, down 0.9%, and about 3% below its April record. It has been a far different story for industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc. Their prices, driven by prospects for global economic growth, are down 10%, on average, in the past 12 months. That divergence in prices is ominous, according to a note Friday from Mike McGlone, a senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. 'The highest-ever gold price vs. the Bloomberg Industrial Metals Spot Subindex at the end of May, based on our database going back to 1991, isn't a good sign for the global economy," he wrote. There are some caveats, according to McGlone. U.S. stock prices remain high, and yields on Treasury bonds have been rising recently, not falling, as one would expect if nervous investors were dumping risky assets and buying the debt in a flight to safety. What is more, gold prices have been climbing steadily for several years, thanks to worries about inflation and buying by foreign central banks, which have been gradually diversifying their reserve assets away from the U.S. dollar. U.S. retail investors have been getting into the action too, snapping up gold bars at Costco, often as soon as they hit the shelves. By this reckoning, gold's price surge relative to more economically sensitive metals isn't necessarily a flashing red light for the economy. Instead, it merely suggests gold is in a bubble. That is certainly the view of plenty on Wall Street. Last month, a Bank of America Securities survey of global fund managers found 49% named gold the market's 'most crowded trade." The Magnificent Seven had held that honor for the previous two years. Still, writing off gold's price moves simply because the metal is making headlines and investors are piling in could be a mistake. After all, while gold prices are hovering near record highs, so is the S&P 500, with price-to-earnings ratios higher than at any time since the late 1990s. If U.S. stock prices were to tumble, perhaps in response to slowing U.S. economic growth or political turmoil, it could easily trigger a global selloff. That could see investors fleeing risky assets, including not just stocks, but Bitcoin and economically sensitive metals like copper. At least some of the money flooding out of these volatile assets would likely find shelter in gold, driving prices to new highs. 'Unprecedented U.S. tariffs are coming with the stock market historically elevated, which may test the inordinate burden on the S&P 500 to remain elevated to buoy all boats," he wrote. Write to Ian Salisbury at
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Posthaste: You might not have heard of this recession indicator — but it's getting louder
Here's a recession warning you might not have heard of — and it's getting louder. Oil prices have plunged this year by almost 21 per cent while gold has gained about 26 per cent, widening the gap between the two to almost 50 per cent. 'Rapidly rising gold and plunging oil aren't good signs for the global economy and this year to May 5 is among the most extreme examples,' writes Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. 'A global reset signalled by gold's outperformance appears to be happening with implications for deflation that could be as steep as the inflation of the past few years.' The disparity is the fourth biggest in the years between 1925 and 2025, he said, and the closest parallels are 1934 and 2007, the years preceding the Great Depression and the Global Financial Crisis. In 1933, there was a 50 per cent gap between gold and oil, and in 2008 it widened to 60 per cent. The 47 per cent gap so far this year has already overtaken that seen during the pandemic in 2020, according to Bloomberg data. Oil prices were up today and gold was down after the United States and China agreed to reduce tariffs for three months, easing trade tensions. McGlone expects the trend, which he says existed before the Trump's election and tariffs, to deepen, predicting that oil will fall near US$40 a barrel and gold will rise to US$4,000. 'A lower U.S. stock market may be a top force to get there,' he said. He's not alone in his prediction. In recent weeks Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Bank of America have all raised their gold forecasts to near or at US$4,000. Gold has a low correlation to equities, bonds and commodities making it an effective hedge, particularly when these traditional assets are falling together as they have been recently. Central banks have increased their gold purchases about fivefold since 2022, and over the past six months, bullion held by the People's Bank of China rose by close to 1 million ounces or about 30 tons, reports Bloomberg. Investors are also piling in. A recent Gallup poll showed gold has overtaken stocks as the second most popular long-term investment among Americans. Real estate is the top choice, but the public preference for gold rose five percentage points to 23 per cent, overtaking equities which fell six points to 16 per cent. Gold has gone from being just a safe haven to a strategic asset in investors' portfolios, say analysts at FTSE Russell, who recommend investors hold 60 per cent equities, 20 per cent bonds and 20 per cent gold. Since 2020, the 60/20/20 portfolio has outperformed the traditional 60/40 holding, they said. 'It is no longer merely a defensive store of value, but a dynamic, strategic tool for navigating complexity in the multi-asset space,' said FTSE Russell analysts Sayad Reteos Baronyan and Alex Nae. to get Posthaste delivered straight to your unemployment rate rose in April to 6.9 per cent, a level last seen in November and this highest since January 2017 outside of the pandemic. This is the third month in a row where jobs have either flatlined or fallen, putting the average pace of job gains at -8,000 over the past three months. April's data points the blame at trade tensions. The largest drop in employment was manufacturing which lost 31,000 jobs and wholesale and retail trade, down 27,000. 'Overall, we are seeing a job market that was weak heading into the trade war, now looking like it could soon buckle,' said Ali Jaffery, an economist with CIBC Capital Markets. Earnings: Hudbay Minerals Inc., Finning International Inc., Denison Mines Corp., Constellation Software Inc. Canada's largest natural gas producer just keeps getting larger When not to trust your mortgage lender How can I ensure a neighbour with a $10 million estate is not taken advantage of? Over-contributing to an RRSP or TFSA can cost you and the longer the money remains in your account the more you pay. Tax expert Jamie Golombek highlights the case of a taxpayer who ultimately removed her TFSA over-contribution, but apparently not fast enough for the CRA. Read on. Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at wealth@ with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we'll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we'll keep your name out of it, of course). Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister's Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won't want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada's lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily. Visit the Financial Post's YouTube channel for interviews with Canada's leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more. Today's Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg. Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@ Just when you thought Toronto's condo market couldn't get any worse … High down payments keep Canadians out of homeownership Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
